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Home My WebLink About20212901.tiffOWILD • ° E P tiPPR{vrtai INCURP(]R.1TF:U Audit Division September 15, 2021 Ms. Natalie Mullis Director of Research Colorado Legislative Council Room 029, State Capitol Building Denver, Colorado 80203 RE: Final Report for the 2021 Colorado Property Assessment Study Dear Ms. Mullis: Wildrose Appraisal Inc. -Audit Division is pleased to submit the Final Reports for the 2021 Colorado Property Assessment Study. These reports are the result of two analyses: A procedural audit and a statistical audit. The procedural audit examines all classes of property. It specifically looks at how the assessor develops economic areas, confirms and qualifies sales, develops time adjustments and performs periodic physical property inspections. The audit reviews the procedures for determining subdivision absorption and subdivision discounting. Valuation methodology is examined for residential properties and commercial properties. Procedures are reviewed for producing mines, oil and gas leaseholds and lands producing, producing coal mines, producing earth and stone products, severed mineral interests, and non - producing patented mining claims. Statistical audits are performed on vacant land, residential properties, commercial/industrial properties and agricultural land. A statistical analysis is performed for personal property compliance on the eleven largest counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Lorimer, Mesa, Pueblo and Weld. The remaining counties receive a personal property procedural study. Wildrose Appraisal Inc. — Audit Division appreciates the opportunity to be of service to the State of Colorado. Please contact us with any questions or concerns. '14( Harry J. Fuller Project Manager Wildrose Appraisal Inc. — Audit Division WILDRO E filk APPRMSAL [,R, PJ) Audit Division TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 3 Regional/Historical Sketch of Weld County 4 Ratio Analysis 6 Time Trending Verification 8 Sold/Unsold Analysis 9 Agricultural Land Study 11 Agricultural Land 11 Agricultural Outbuildings 12 Agricultural Land Under Improvements 13 Sales Verification 14 Economic Area Review and Evaluation 16 Natural Resources 17 Earth and Stone Products 17 Producing Oil and Gas 17 Vacant Land 18 Possessory Interest Properties 19 Personal Property Audit 20 Wildrose Auditor Staff 22 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 23 2021 \Veld County Property Assessment Study - Page 2 WILD wwE 0110. APPRAISAL !ACOkPOR I ) Audit Division INTRODUCTION The State Board of Equalization (SBOE) reviews assessments for conformance to the Constitution. The SBOE will order revaluations for counties whose valuations do not reflect the proper valuation period level of value. The statutory basis for the audit is found in C.R.S. 39-1-104 (16)(a)(b) and (c). The legislative council sets forth two criteria that are the focus of the audit group: To determine whether each county assessor is applying correctly the constitutional and statutory provisions, compliance requirements of the State Board of Equalization, and the manuals published by the State Property Tax Administrator to arrive at the actual value of each class of property. To determine if each assessor is applying correctly the provisions of law to the actual values when arriving at valuations for assessment of all locally valued properties subject to the property tax. The property assessment audit conducts a two- part analysis: A procedural analysis and a statistical analysis. The procedural analysis includes all classes of property and specifically looks at how the assessor develops economic areas, confirms and qualifies sales, and develops time adjustments. The audit also examines the procedures for adequately discovering, classifying and valuing agricultural subdivision discounting methodology for vacant land, improved residential properties and commercial properties is examined. Procedures for producing mines, oil and gas leaseholds and lands producing, producing coal mines, producing earth and stone products, severed mineral interests and non -producing patented mining claims are also reviewed. outbuildings, discovering build -out and subdivision procedures. Valuation Statistical analysis is performed on vacant land, residential properties, commercial industrial properties, agricultural land, and personal property. The statistical study results are compared with State Board of Equalization compliance requirements and the manuals published by the State Property Tax Administrator. Wildrose Audit has completed the Property Assessment Study for 2021 and is pleased to report its findings for Weld County in the following report. 2021 Weld Count t tiIitdv WILD ' ' E AI'Nk 1LLD Audit Division REGIONAL/HISTORICAL SKETCH OF WELD COUNTY Regional Information Weld County is located in the Front Range region of Colorado. The Colorado Front Range is a colloquial geographic term for the populated areas of the State that are just east of the foothills of the Front Range. It includes i _ i MOFFAT 41 Craig • RO UTT 54 Steamboat Spgs Meeker • RIO BLANCO 52rj 1 • MESA 39 GARFIELD 23 Glenwood Spgs Grand Junction DELTA 15 • Delta Montrose • M0NTROSE 43 SAN MIGUEL 57 'Trove Creek . DOLORES frit 7 Gomez • i OU RAY 46 Ouray • Telluride 6 . ilV5erton SAN JUAN • Durango MONTEZUMA LA PLATA 34 42 • Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer, Pueblo, and Weld counties. Walden • JACKSON 29 GRAND • 25 Hot Su/phu springs Eagle . EAGLE 19 PITKIN • 49 Aspen Le vilks LAKE 33 SWAMI 59'Br LARIMER 35 • Ft. Collins 7 BOULDER • Boulder Gar IN 4 cwgetow CLEAR CREEK 10 kenridge irplay PARK 47 GUNNISON CHAFFEE 26 8 • Gunnison Salida • • HINSDALE • Lake City 27 • Greede MINERAL 40 Del hlorte RIO GRANDE 53 SAC UACHE Golden • IEEE ERSON 30 WELD 62 • Greeley MORGAN 44 Fort Morgan LOGAN 38 • Sterling Ju/9vurg SEOGVV ICK • ORAD 80 ADAMS 1 DENVER 16 3 ARAPAH OE Akron • WASHINGTON 61 Castle Rock . DOUGLAS 18 55 •Saguache TELLER Cripple I. 'Creek h Iowa Z9 • ELBERT 60 Colorado Spgs FREMONT. 22 Canon City EL PASO 21 Hugo . LINCOLN 37 . Burlington KIT CARSON 32 Cheyenne CHEVENNE :e11s 9 Westcliffe •CUSTER 14 Pagosa Spgs ARCH U LETA 4 A LAMOSA 2 kernosa CON EJOS 11 •Conejos COSTILLA 12 San Luis Pueblo • PUEBLO 51 Trinidad • CROWLEY 13 Ordway La Junta • OTERO 46 Eads . KIOWA 31 Las Animas • RENT 6 Lamar PROW ERS 50 l LAS ANIMAS 36 Springfield • BACA 5 2021 Weld County Property Assessment Study — Page 4 ilkWILD APPRAISAL ISC IRPOR{TP_" Audit Division Historical Information Weld County has approximately 3,987.2 square miles and an estimated population of approximately 324,492 people with 63.4 people per square mile, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2020 estimated census data. This represents a 28.3 percent change from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019. Weld County covers an area of 4,004 square miles in north central Colorado. It is bordered on the north by Wyoming and Nebraska and on the south by the Denver metropolitan area. The third largest county in Colorado, Weld County has an area greater than that of Rhode Island, Delaware and the District of Columbia combined. Major Stephen H. Long made an expedition to the area now known as Weld County in 1821. In 1835 a government expedition came through the general area; the next year a member of that party, Lt. Lancaster Lupton, returned to establish a trading post located just north of the present town of Fort Lupton. In 1837 Colonel Ceran St. Vrain established Fort St. Vrain; Fort Vasquez was built south of Platteville about 1840. The latter was rebuilt in the 1930's by the State Historical Society. The county seat is Greeley which began as the Union Colony, which was founded in 1869 as an experimental utopian community of "high moral standards" by Nathan C. Meeker, a newspaper reporter from New York City. Meeker purchased a site at the confluence of the Cache la Poudre and South Platte Rivers (that included the area of Latham, an Overland Trail station), halfway between Cheyenne and Denver along the tracks of the Denver Pacific Railroad formerly known as the "Island Grove Ranch." The name Union Colony was later changed to Greeley in honor of Horace Greeley, who was Meeker's editor at the New York Tribune, and popularized the phrase "Go West, young man." Weld County's cultural assets include Centennial Village, an authentic recreation of pioneer life on the Colorado plains. The Meeker Museum in Greeley is a national historic site. Fort Vasquez in southern Weld County has an exciting history as an early Colorado trading post. The Greeley Philharmonic Orchestra is one of the oldest symphony orchestra west of the Mississippi. The University of Northern Colorado's Little Theatre of the Rockies is one of America's premier college dramatic organizations. (www.co.weld.co.us, www.wikipedia.org) 2021 Weld County Property Assessment Study Page AWILDI20SE Ilk P14tAiS{L I\COR!'VR{TFD Audit Division RATIO ANALYSIS Methodoloc y All significant classes of property were analyzed. Sales were collected for each property class over the eighteen month period from January 1, 2019 through June 30th, 2020. Property classes with less than thirty sales had the sales period extended in six month increments up to an additional forty-two months. If this extended sales period did not produce the minimum thirty qualified sales, the Audit performed supplemental appraisals to reach the minimum. Although it was required that we examine the median and coefficient of dispersion for all counties, we also calculated the weighted mean and price -related differential for each class of property. Counties were not passed or failed by these latter measures, but were counseled if there were anomalies noted during our analysis. Qualified sales were based on the qualification code used by each county, which were typically coded as either "Q" or "C." The ratio analysis included all sales. The data was trimmed for counties with obvious outliers using IAA() standards for data analysis. In every case, we examined the loss in data from trimming to ensure that only true outliers were excluded. Any county with a significant portion of sales excluded by this trimming method was examined further. No county was allowed to pass the audit if more than 5% of the sales were "lost" because of trimming. All sixty-four counties were examined for compliance on the economic area level. Where there were sufficient sales data, the neighborhood and subdivision levels were tested for compliance. Although counties are determined to be in or out of compliance at the class level, non -compliant economic areas, neighborhoods and subdivisions (where applicable) were discussed with the Assessor. Data on the individual economic areas, neighborhoods and subdivisions are found in the STATISTICAL APPENDIX. Conclusions For this final analysis report, the minimum acceptable statistical standards allowed by the State Board of Equalization are: ALLOWABLE STANDARDS RATIO GRID Property Class Commercial /Industrial Residential Condominium Residential Vacant Land Unweighted Median Ratio Between .95-1.05 Between .95-1.05 Between .95-1.05 Between .95-1.05 Coefficient of Dispersion Less than 20.99 Less than 15.99 Less than 15.99 Less than 20.99 2021 Weld County Property ikssessment Study _ Page 6 WILD APPRAISAL iNCORPGRaTED Audit Division The results for Weld County are: Weld County Ratio Grid Number of Unweighted Price Coefficient Qualified Median Related of Time Trend Property Class Sales Ratio Differential Dispersion Analysis Commercial /Industrial 222 0.993 1.011 6.2 Compliant Residential 11,527 0.971 1.004 4.9 Compliant Vacant Land 222 1.000 1.009 10.4 Compliant After applying the above described SBOE, DPT, and Colorado State Statute methodologies, it is concluded from the sales valuation guidelines. ratios that Weld County is in compliance with Recommendations None 2021 Weld County Property Assessinent Stuck' Page 7 OkWILD' .E APi7EM$AL I\C[M UURATED Audit Division TIME TRENDING Methodology While we recommend that counties use the inverted ratio regression analysis method to account for market (time) trending, some counties have used other IAAO-approved methods, such as the weighted monthly median approach. We are not auditing the methods used, but rather the results of the methods used. Given this range of methodologies used to account for market trending, we concluded that the best validation method was to examine the sale ratios for each class across the appropriate sale period. To be specific, if a county has considered and adjusted correctly for market trending, then the sale ratios should remain stable (i.e. flat) across the sale period. If a residual market trend is detected, then the county may or may not have addressed market VERIFICATION trending adequately, and a further examination is warranted. This validation method also considers the number of sales and the length of the sale period. Counties with few sales across the sale period were carefully examined to determine if the statistical results were valid. Conclusions After verification and analysis, it has been determined that Weld County has complied with the statutory requirements to analyze the effects of time on value in their county. Weld County has also satisfactorily applied the results of their time trending analysis to arrive at the time adjusted sales price (TASP). Recommendations None 2021 Weld County Property Assessment Study — Page 8 WILD ' . E Op APPRkl$A1-INCA PO LThca Audit Division SOLD /UNSOLD ANALYSIS :Methodology Weld County was tested for the equal treatment of sold and unsold properties to ensure that "sales chasing" has not occurred. The auditors employed a multi -step process to determine if sold and unsold properties were valued in a consistent manner. We test the hypothesis that the assessor has valued unsold properties consistent with what is observed with the sold properties based on several units of comparison and tests. The units of comparison include the actual value per square foot and the change in value from the previous base year period to the current base year. The first test compares the actual value per square foot between sold and unsold properties by class. The median and mean value per square foot is compared and tested for any significant difference. This is tested using non -parametric methods, such as the Mann -Whitney test for differences in the distributions or medians between sold and unsold groups. It is also examined graphically and from an appraisal perspective. Data can be stratified based on location and subclass. The second test compares the difference in the median change in value from the previous base year to the current base year between sold and unsold properties by class. The same combination of non -parametric and appraisal testing is used as with the first test. A third test employing a valuation model testing a sold/unsold binary variable while controlling for property attributes such as location, size, age and other attributes. The model determines if the sold/unsold variable is statistically and empirically significant. If all three tests indicate a significant difference between sold and unsold properties for a given class, the Auditor may meet with the county to determine if sale chasing is actually occurring, or if there are other explanations for the observed difference. If the unsold properties have a higher median value per square foot than the sold properties, or if the median change in value is greater for the unsold properties than the sold properties, the analysis is stopped and the county is concluded to be in compliance with sold and unsold guidelines. All sold and unsold properties in a given class are first tested, although properties with extreme unit values or percent changes can be trimmed to stabilize the analysis. The median is the primary comparison metric, although the mean can also be used as a comparison metric if the distribution supports that type of measure of central tendency. The first test (unit value method) is applied to both residential and commercial/industrial sold and unsold properties. The second test is applied to sold and unsold vacant land properties. The second test (change in value method) is also applied to residential or commercial sold and unsold properties if the first test results in a significant difference observed and/or tested between sold and unsold properties. The third test (valuation modeling) is used in instances where the results from the first two tests indicate a significant difference between sold and unsold properties. It can also be used when the number of sold and unsold properties is so large that the non - parametric testing is indicating a false rejection of the hypothesis that there is no difference between the sold and unsold property values. These tests were supported by both tabular and graphics presentations, along with written documentation explaining the methodology used. 2021 \Veld County Property \ sessinent Study -- Page 9 WILD RC .SE APPRAR'aAL INCORPORATED Audit Division Sold/Unsold Results Property Class Commercial /Industrial Residential Vacant Land Results Compliant Compliant Compliant Conclusions Recommendations After applying the above described None methodologies, it is concluded that Weld County is reasonably treating its sold and unsold properties in the same manner. 2021 Weld Cc Propc scssnient Stuck- __... WILD ' • E APPR \tom U NCI )1?PoR Jinn Audit Division AGRICULTURAL LAND STUDY Acres By Subclass 60.000.000 50.000 000 40,000.000 30 000.000 20.000,000 10,000,000 0 leadow Hay 0.58% Value By Subclass 'boc. 4 Agricultural Land County records were reviewed to determine major land categories such as irrigated farm, dry farm, meadow hay, grazing and other lands. In addition, county records were reviewed in order to determine if: Aerial photographs are available and are being used; soil conservation guidelines have been used to classify lands based on productivity; crop rotations have been documented; typical commodities and yields have been determined; orchard lands have been properly classified and valued; expenses reflect a ten year average and are typical landlord expenses; grazing lands have been properly classified and valued; the number of acres in each class and subclass have been determined; the capitalization rate was properly applied. Also, documentation was required for the valuation methods used and any locally developed yields, carrying capacities, and expenses. Records were also checked to ensure that the commodity prices and expenses, furnished by the Property Tax Administrator (PTA), were applied properly. (See Assessor Reference Library Volume 3 Chapter 5.) Conclusions An analysis of the agricultural land data indicates an acceptable appraisal of this property type. Directives, commodity prices and expenses provided by the PTA were properly applied. County yields compared favorably to those published by Colorado Agricultural Statistics. Expenses used by the county were allowable expenses and were in an acceptable range. Grazing lands carrying capacities were in an acceptable range. The data analyzed resulted in the following ratios: 2021 Weld County Property- Assessment. Study — Page 11 WILD' .E A.prR ms ii. INCORPOR\TFD Audit Division Weld County Agricultural Land Ratio Grid Number Abstract Of Code Land Class Acres 4107 Sprinkler 132,328 4117 Flood 186,455 4127 Dry Farm 557,083 4137 Meadow Hay 11,595 4147 Grazing 965,509 4-167 Waste 138,088 Total/Avg 1,991,058 County County Value Assessed Per Acre Total Value 201.58 265.97 38.65 45.24 7.20 2.42 26,674,616 49,591,296 21,528,966 524,610 6,950,334 333,918 WRA Total Value 26,543,007 50,369,711 21,165,240 524,610 6,950,334 333,918 53.04 105,603,741 105,886,820 Ratio 1.00 0.98 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Recommendations None Agricultural Outbuildings Methodology Data was collected and reviewed to determine if the guidelines found in the Assessor's Reference Library (ARL) Volume 3, pages 5.74 through 5.77 were being followed. Conclusions Weld County has substantially complied with the procedures provided by the Division of Property Taxation for the valuation of agricultural outbuildings. Recommendations None 2021 Veld County Property : se smesat Study - Page 12 Ilk'WIDC)SE APPAkk 1 \CORPORA rFF� Audit Division Agricultural Land Under Improvements Methodology Data was collected and reviewed to determine if the guidelines found in the Assessor's Reference Library (ARL) Volume 3, pages 5.19 and 5.20 were being followed. Conclusions Weld County has used the following methods to discover land under a residential improvement on a farm or ranch that is determined to be not integral under 39-1-102, C.R.S.: Questionnaires • Field Inspections • Phone Interviews • In -Person Interviews with Owners/Tenants • Written Correspondence other than Questionnaire • Personal Knowledge of Occupants at Assessment Date Weld County has used the following methods to discover the land area under a residential improvement that is determined to be not integral under 39-1-102, C.R.S.: • Property Record Card Analysis • Field Inspections • Phone Interviews • In -Person Interviews with Owners/Tenants • Written Correspondence other than Questionnaire • Personal Knowledge of Occupants at Assessment Date • Aerial Photography/Pictometry Weld County has substantially complied with the procedures provided by the Division of Property Taxation for the valuation of land under residential improvements that may or may not be integral to an agricultural operation. Recommendations None 2021 W.'Id County Property e ss nowt Study-- Pag 13 WILD ' } . E APPRALWLL_ I•NIf1RTORATFD Audit Division SALES VERIFICATION According to Colorado Revised Statutes: A representative body of sales is required when considering the market approach to appraisal. (8) In any case in which sales prices of comparable properties within any class or subclass are utilized when considering the market approach to appraisal in the determination of actual value of any taxable property, the following limitations and conditions shall apply: (a)(1) Use of the market approach shall require a representative body of sales, including sales by a lender or government, sufficient to set a pattern, and appraisals shall reflect due consideration of the degree of comparability of sales, including the extent of similarities and dissimilarities among properties that are compared for assessment purposes. In order to obtain a reasonable sample and to reduce sudden price changes or fluctuations, all sales shall be included in the sample that reasonably r fect a true or typical sales price during the period specified in section 39-1-104 (10.2). Sales of personal property exempt pursuant to the provisions of sections 39-3- 102, 39-3-103, and 39-3-119 to 39-3-122 shall not be included in any such sample. (b) Each such sale included in the sample shall be coded to indicate a typical, negotiated sale, as screened and verified by the assessor. (39-1-103, C.R.S.) The assessor is required to use sales of real property only in the valuation process. (8)(f) Such true and typical sales shall include only those sales which have been determined on an individual basis to r fect the selling price of the real property only or which have been adjusted on an individual basis to r fect the selling price of the real property only. (39-1-103, C.R.S.) Part of the Property Assessment Study is the sales verification analysis. WRA has used the above -cited statutes as a guide in our study of the county's procedures and practices for verifying sales. WRA reviewed the sales verification procedures in 2021 for Weld County. This study was conducted by checking selected sales from the master sales list for the current valuation period. Specifically WRA selected 59 sales listed as unqualified. All of the sales in the unqualified sales sample had reasons that were clear and supportable. For residential, commercial, and vacant land sales with considerations over $100,000, the contractor has examined and reported the ratio of qualified sales to total sales by class and performed the following analyses of unqualified sales: The contractor has examined the manner in which sales have been classified as qualified or unqualified, including a listing of each step in the sales verification process, any adjustment procedures, and the county official responsible for making the final decision on qualification. When less than 50 percent of sales are qualified in any of the three property classes (residential, commercial, and vacant land), the contractor analyzed the reasons for disqualifying sales in any subclass that constitutes at least 20 percent of the class, either by number of properties or by value, from the prior year. The contractor has 2021 Weld County Property A e; Yrictit Study Pagc 14 WILDROSE APPRAISAL NCORPORiTEO Audit Division reviewed with the assessor any analysis indicating that sales data are inadequate, fail to reflect typical properties, or have been disqualified for insufficient cause. In addition, the contractor has reviewed the disqualified sales by assigned code. If there appears to be any inconsistency in the coding, the contractor has conducted further analysis to determine if the sales included in that code have been assigned appropriately. If 50 percent or more of the sales are qualified, the contractor has reviewed a statistically significant sample of unqualified sales, excluding sales that were disqualified for obvious reasons. Weld County did not qualify for in- depth subclass analysis. Conclusions Weld County appears to be doing an adequate job of verifying their sales. WRA agreed with the county's reason for disqualifying each of the sales selected in the sample. There are no recommendations or suggestions. Recommendations None 202 I Wcid Conn( t Property A A'ssmcnt Study— Page 1 ilkWILD' O.E APPI1MS L ISCORPORATED Audit Division ECONOMIC AREA REVIEW AND EVALUATION Methodology Weld County has submitted a written narrative describing the economic areas that make up the county's market areas. Weld County has also submitted a map illustrating these areas. Each of these narratives have been read and analyzed for logic and appraisal sensibility. The maps were also compared to the narrative for consistency between the written description and the map. Conclusions After review and analysis, it has been determined that Weld County has adequately identified homogeneous economic areas comprised of smaller neighborhoods. Each economic area defined is equally subject to a set of economic forces that impact the value of the properties within that geographic area and this has been adequately addressed. Each economic area defined adequately delineates an area that will give "similar values for similar properties in similar areas." Recommendations None 2021 Weld Coin fly Property cs molt tii_udk' - 16 OltWILD1 SE APPR{I AL I\fl)RPOR{TED Audit Division NATURAL RESOURCES Earth and Stone Products Methodology Under the guidelines of the Assessor's Reference Library (ARL), Volume 3, Natural Resource Valuation Procedures, the income approach was applied to determine value for production of earth and stone products. The number of tons was multiplied by an economic royalty rate determined by the Division of Property Taxation to determine income. The income was multiplied by a recommended Hoskold factor to determine the actual value. The Hoskold factor is determined by the life of the reserves or the lease. Value is based on two variables: life and tonnage. The operator determines these since there is no other means to obtain production data through any state or private agency. Conclusions The County has applied the correct formulas and state guidelines to earth and stone production. Recommendations None Producing Oil and Gas Methodology Assessors Reference Library (ARL) Volume 3, Chapter 6: Valuation of Natural Resources STATUTORY REFERENCES Section § 39-1-103, C.R.S., specifies that producing oil or gas leaseholds and lands are valued according to article 7 of title 39, C.R.S. Actual value determined - when. (2) The valuation for assessment of leaseholds and lands producing oil or gas shall be determined as provided in article 7 of this title. § 39-1-103, C.R.S. Article 7 covers the listing, valuation, and assessment of producing oil and gas leaseholds and lands. Valuation: Valuation for assessment. (1) Except as provided in subsection (2) of this section, on the basis of the information contained in such statement, the assessor shall value such oil and gas leaseholds and lands for assessment, as real property, at an amount equal to eighty-seven and one-half percent of: (a) The selling price of the oil or gas sold there from during the preceding calendar year, after excluding the selling price of all oil or gas delivered to the United States government or any agency thereof, the state of Colorado or any agency thereof, or any political subdivision of the state as royalty during the preceding calendar year; (b) The selling price of oil or gas sold in the same field area for oil or gas transported from the premises which is not sold during the preceding calendar year, after excluding the selling price of all oil or gas delivered to the United States government or any agency thereof, the state of Colorado or any agency thereof, or any political subdivision of the state as royalty during the preceding calendar year. § 39-7-102, C.R.S. Conclusions The county applied approved appraisal procedures in the valuation of oil and gas. Recommendations None 2021 \\-'cid Connty Property A scssincnt Study Pale 17 0WILD`�,E ' AP*'RU. LL. L` CORPOR 1tD Audit Division VACANT LAND Subdivision Discounting Subdivisions were reviewed in 2021 in Weld County. The review showed that subdivisions were discounted pursuant to the Colorado Revised Statutes in Article 39-1-103 (14). Discounting procedures were applied to all subdivisions where less than 80 percent of all sites were sold using the present worth method. The market approach was applied where 80 percent or more of the subdivision sites were sold. An absorption period was estimated for each subdivision that was discounted. An appropriate discount rate was developed using the summation method. Subdivision land with structures was appraised at full market value. Conclusions Weld County has implemented proper procedures to adequately estimate absorption periods, discount rates, and lot values for qualifying subdivisions. Recommendations None 2021 \.Veld County Property A•sessmeni Study - Page 18 ilkWILDROSE APPR{LSAL ISCOHPORiTED Audit Division POSSESSORY INTEREST Possessory Interest Possessory interest property discovery and valuation is described in the Assessor's Reference Library (ARL) Volume 3 section 7 in accordance with the requirements of Chapter 39-1-103 (17)(a) (II) C.R.S. Possessory Interest is defined by the Property Tax Administrator's Publication ARL Volume 3, Chapter 7: A private property interest in government -owned property or the right to the occupancy and use of any benefit in government -owned property that has been granted under lease, permit, license, concession, contract, or other agreement. Weld County has been reviewed for their procedures and adherence to guidelines when assessing and valuing agricultural and PROPERTIES commercial possessory interest properties. The county has also been queried as to their confidence that the possessory interest properties have been discovered and placed on the tax rolls. Conclusions Weld County has implemented a discovery process to place possessory interest properties on the roll. They have also correctly and consistently applied the correct procedures and valuation methods in the valuation of possessory interest properties. Recommendations None 2021 \Vcld County Property A scssincnt Study - Page 19 IlkWILD • O. E APPRUS.u. I,CORPOR\TED Audit Division PERSONAL PROPERTY AUDIT Weld County was studied for its procedural compliance with the personal property assessment outlined in the Assessor's Reference Library (ARL) Volume 5, and in the State Board of Equalization (SBOE) requirements for the assessment of personal property. The SBOE requires that counties use ARL Volume 5, including current discovery, classification, documentation procedures, current economic lives table, cost factor tables, depreciation table, and level of value adjustment factor table. The personal property audit standards narrative must be in place and current. A listing of businesses that have been audited by the assessor within the twelve-month period reflected in the plan is given to the auditor. The audited businesses must be in conformity with those described in the plan. Aggregate ratio will be determined solely from the personal property accounts that have been physically inspected. The minimum assessment sample is one percent or ten schedules, whichever is greater, and the maximum assessment audit sample is 100 schedules. For the counties having over 100,000 population, WRA selected a sample of all personal property schedules to determine whether the assessor is correctly applying the provisions of law and manuals of the Property Tax Administrator in arriving at the assessment levels of such property. This sample was selected from the personal property schedules audited by the assessor. In no event was the sample selected by the contractor less than 30 schedules. The counties to be included in this study are Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer, Mesa, Pueblo, and Weld. All other counties received a procedural study. Weld County is compliant with the guidelines set forth in ARL Volume 5 regarding discovery procedures, using the following methods to discover personal property accounts in the county: • Public Record Documents • MLS Listing and/or Sold Books • Chamber of Commerce/Economic Development Contacts • Local Telephone Directories, Newspapers or Other Local Publications • Personal Observation, Physical Canvassing or Word of Mouth • Questionnaires, Letters and/or Phone Calls to Buyer, Seller and/or Realtor The county uses the Division of Property Taxation (DPT) recommended classification and documentation procedures. The DPT's recommended cost factor tables, depreciation tables and level of value adjustment factor tables are also used. Weld County submitted their personal property written audit plan and was current for the 2021 valuation period. The number and listing of businesses audited was also submitted and was in conformance with the written audit plan. The following audit triggers were used by the county to select accounts to be audited: • Businesses in a selected area • Accounts with obvious discrepancies • New businesses filing for the first time • Accounts with greater than 10% change • Incomplete or inconsistent declarations • Accounts with omitted property • Same business type or use 2021 Weld County Property Assessment Study Page 20 WILDROSE Opp APPRAISAL I\COkPOR{7EO Audit Division • Businesses with no deletions or additions for 2 or more years • Non -filing Accounts - Best Information Available • Accounts close to the $7,900 actual value exemption status • Accounts protested with substantial disagreement Weld County's median ratio is 1.02. This is in compliance with the State Board of Equalization (SBOE) compliance requirements which range from .90 to 1.10 with no COD requirements. Conclusions Weld County has employed adequate discovery, classification, documentation, valuation, and auditing procedures for their personal property assessment and is in statistical compliance with SBOE requirements. Recommendations None 2021 \Veld County Property 1 :cssrneut Study 2 fikWILD ' • . E . APPRAISAL 1NCoRPORATF6 Audit Division WILDROSE AUDITOR STAFF Harry J. Fuller, Audit Project Manager Suzanne Howard, Audit Administrative Manager Steve Kane, Audit Statistician Carl W. Ross, Agricultural/Natural Resource Analyst J. Andrew Rodriguez, Field Analyst 202 I Weld County Property Assessment Study Page 2 2 WILDROSE aPPR .XL INCORPORATED Audit Division STATISTICAL APPENDIX 202 I Weld County Property Assessineta Stud• - Patl 23 \\TILDRQSE e•ratNU I'fit* W;nn Audit Division STATISTICAL COMPLIANCE REPORT FOR WELD COUNTY 2021 I. OVERVIEW Weld County is an urban county located along Colorado's Front Range. The county has a total of 145,670 real property parcels, according to data submitted by the county assessor's office in 2021. The following provides a breakdown of property classes for this county: 4' C 3 0 U 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Vacant Land Distribution 5639 Res Imp Comm/Ind Imp type 32253 Other The vacant land class of properties was dominated by residential land. Residential lots (coded 100 and 1112) accounted for 84.9% of all vacant land parcels. For residential improved properties, single family properties accounted for 93.2% of all residential properties. Commercial and industrial properties represented a much smaller proportion of property classes in comparison. Commercial/industrial properties accounted for 3.9% of all such properties in this county. II. DATA FILES The following sales analyses were based on the requirements of the 2021 Colorado Property Assessment Study. Information was provided by the Weld Assessor's Office in April 2021. The data included all 5 property record files as specified by the Auditor. 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Pao. c' ift WILDROSE Audit Division III. RESIDENTIAL SALES RESULTS There were 11,527 qualified residential sales that occurred in the 18 -month sale period ending June 30, 2020. The sales ratio analysis results were as follows: Median 0.971 Price Related Differential 1.004 Coefficient of Dispersion 4.9 Based on the Audit questionnaire filled out by the assessor (see below), the following geographic levels were used by the assessor to value residential, commercial and vacant land properties: Economic Area Case Processing Summary Count Percent ECONAREA .00 914 8.0% 2.00 4209 36.6% 3.00 2920 25.4% 4.00 809 7.0% % 5.00 115 1.0% 6.00 1610 14.0% 7.00 34 0.3% 8.00 70 0.6% 9.00 384 3.3% 99.00 421 3.7% Overall 11486 100.0% Excluded 41 Total 11527 Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Price Related Coefficient of Group Median Differential Dispersion .974 1.003 .041 2.00 .969 1.003 .044 3.00 .970 1.005 .049 4.00 .979 ry 1.005 .047 5.00 .969 1.014 .074 6.00 .972 1.004 .064 7.00 .959 1.021 .131 8.00 .972 1.008 .083 9.00 .969 1.001 .050 99.00 .971 NW 1.002 .036 Overall .971 1.004 .049 NOTE: Econ Area 99 = Condominiums 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 25 Op WILDROSE Audit Division Neighborhoods with at least 30 sales Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Price Related Coefficient of Group Median Differential Dispersion 71 .972 1.008 .053 72 .971 1.000 .032 78 .964 1.000 .031 79 .974 1.000 .035 81 .964 1.001 .042 83 .960 .999 .036 .037 971 1. 000 171 __...__.. n..__._ _._ 174 .978 1.002 .030 674 .991 1.000 .014 2002 .963 1.002 .044 2005 .961 1.000 .044 2006 .970 1.004 .048 2007 .976 1.022 .102 2011 .972 1.008 .062 2013 .968 1.005 .048 2016 .975 1.001 .028 2018 .968 1.002 .049 2019 .966 1.004 .039 2020 .978 7 1.003 .035 _m._. 3 2021 .969 1.004 .038 2060 .963 .999 .075 2061 .965 1.001 .034 2100 .967 .978 .051 2101 .967 1.001 .033 2102 .967 1.001 _ .034 2103 .972 1.000 .050 2105 .983 1.003 .071 2106 .965 1.002 .036 2107 .972 1.001 .042 2108 .971 .999 .037 2110 .968 1.004 .055 2111 .959 1.002 .053 2112 .964 1.005 .068 2115 .968 1.001 .030 2117 .990 1.001 .027 2118 .970 ® 1.000 .032 2120 .967 1.009 .045 2121 .975.__.___._..._999 049 2122 .974 1.002 .030 2151 .969 1.001 .034 2152 .964 1.001 .027 2155 .965 1.010 .037 2252 .979 1.010 .081 2657 .970 1.007 .051 2690 .968 1.002 .022 3000 .977 1.003 .042 3003 .967 .999 .035 3004 .972 1.001 .027 3008 .979 1.010 .059 3012 .961 1.001 .040 3013 .958 1.006 .068 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 26 WILDROSE Audit Division 3017 .974 1.017 .061 3024 .968 1.000 .022 3025 .968 1.001 .039 3026 .947 1.002 .047 3027 .972 1.000 .029 3030 .980 1.001 .037 3031 .964 1.000 ry .052 3032 .970 1.002 .032 3034 .975 1.004 .049 3037 .969 1.001 .044 ___...__.. _.. _,. 3038 .970 1 1.001 .045 3055 .970 .998 .049 3122 .961 1.006 .040 4000 .984 1.001 .034 4002 .986 1.001 .028 4004 .986 1.002 .025 4102 .968 1.001 .040 4103 .966 1.005 .063 4105 .971 1.008 .096 4123 .975 1.003 .033 4220 .953 1.005 .088 5001 .961 1.017 .077 6003 .965 1.002 .055 6021 .956 1.003 .051 6023 .962 .997 .086 6025 .964 1.004 .058 6027 .968 1.003 .040 6029 .969 1.000 .045 6030 .965 .998 .087 6031 .967 1.002 .056 6033 .987 1.029 .109 6034 .966 1.005 .070 6035 .972 1.001 .036 6037 .982 1.003 .085 6038 .969 1.003 .058 6045 .979 1.023 .103 6050 .965 1.004 .055 6062 .984 1.001 .041 6207 .972 Po 1.003 .120 9009 .958 1.002 ....___ .072 9010 .951 1.003 .049 9014 .977 1.007 .050 9040 .976 1.003 .036 Overall .971 1.004 .047 NOTE: NBHD 9999 = Condominiums The above ratio statistics were in compliance with the standards set forth by the Colorado State Board of Equalization (SBOE) for the overall residential sales. The following graphs describe further the sales ratio distribution for these properties: 2021 Statistical Report: YV'EI..D COUNTY Page 27 2,500 2,000 C 1,500 • Q • S . 1,000 500 0 1.50 O 1.00 a .50 .00 •• • .50 WILD ' O, E AYR,h,( 'WIN* %In Audit Division Sales Ratio Distribution 1.00 salesratio 1.50 200 PRD Analysis Mean = .97 Std. Dev. _ 071 P4= 11.527 S •• • • • ,t•• • • • • O. • r • • St • • • •• • !r • • • { a•• • • • • • S. • • •AD • • • • • • •M rr • • P• • •: •• •• • • $0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 TIMEADJPRICE NOTE: Sales over $2,500,000 excluded for graphic clarity The above graphs indicate that the distribution of the sale ratios was within state mandated limits. Subclass 1212 PRD Analysis We next analyzed residential properties identified as 1112 using the state abstract code system (Weld County used the predominant use land code 1112 for 1212 properties) . These include single family residences, town homes and purged manufactured homes. The following indicates the distribution of sales ratios across the sale price spectrum: 2021 Statistical Report: NN LLD COUN 1 Y 1212 SALES 1.50 O 1.00 N .50 S S. • • •s N~ `s • • • • • f • • WILD • O, E -1M`M \h1,1 IN, I SPUN;II (� Audit Division PRD Analysis • • i • • • • • • • • • • • S •M • •w • •• • • • • • • • •• • • • ;•• • • till • • •M •• • • • • • • • • • • _• • • • • $0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 TIMEADJPRICE The Price -Related Differential (PRD) for 1212 sales is 1.005, which is within IAA() standards for the PRD. We also performed a regression analysis between the sales ratio and the assessor's current value to further test for regressivity or progressivity in the residential sales valuation, as follows: Coefficients' Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) .969 .002 447.618 .000 CURRTOT .000000012 .000 .021 2.183 .029 a. Dependent Variable salesratio The slope of the line at 0.000000012 indicates that there is virtually no slope in the regression line, which indicates that sales ratios are similar across the entire sale price array. This indicates no regressivity or progressivity in the residential values assigned by the assessor. We also stratified the sales ratio analysis by the sale price range, as follows: Case Processing Summary Count Percent SPRec LT $300K 1708 15.6% $300K to $350K 2509 22.9% $350K to $400K 2618 23.9% $400K to $450K 1551 14.1% $450K to $500K 855 7.8% $500K to $600K 977 8.9% $600K to $750K 517 4.7% $750K to $1000K 172 1.6% 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 29 WILDROSE Audit Division Over $1000K 63 0.6% Overall 10970 100.0% Excluded 0 Total 10970 Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Group LT $300K $300K to $350K $350K to $400K $400K to $450K $450K to $500K $500K to $600K $600K to $750K $750K to $1000K Over $1000K Overall Price Related Coefficient of Median Differential Dispersion .976 1.003 .068 10.6% Coefficient of Variation Median Centered .977 1.000 .038 5.3% .972 1.000 .037 5.1% .969 1.000 .__ ___... .044 6.4% .964 1.000 _._.._s .050 6.8% .961 1.000 .057 7.5% .948 1.000 .068 9.1% .915 1.000 .093 11.7% .911 .998 .124 16.1% .971 1.005 .049 7.3% The above table indicates no regressivity in the sales ratios across sale price categories. Residential Market Trend Analysis We next analyzed the residential dataset using the 18 -month sale period for any residual market trending and broken down by economic area, as follows: Coefficientsa ECONAREA Model Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error Standardized Coefficients Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) .974 .015 SalePeriod .001 .002 (Constant) .00 2.00 3.00 1 4.00 5.00 1 .971 .004 .099 66.601 .000 .620 .539 273.316 .000 SalePeriod (Constant) SalePeriod (Constant) .000 .000 .039 .968 .002 .000 .000 _ .971__ .002 SalePeriod -7.769E-5 .000 (Constant) .978 .006 SalePeriod .000 .001 (Constant) .978 .017 SalePeriod -.001 .002 1 6.00 1 (Constant) .979 .005 7.00 SalePeriod .000 .000 (Constant) .847 .058 SalePeriod .010 .006 8.00 1 (Constant) .929 .031 9.00 SalePeriod .003 .003 (Constant) .969 .008 SalePeriod .000 .001 .028 -.006 .023 -.043 1.164 .245 515.373 .000 1.826 .068 420.166 .000 -.316 .752 171.358 .000 .646 .518 57.778 .000 -.463 .645 214.446 .000 .018 .708 .479 14.719 .000 .309 1.837 .076 30.005 .000 .136 1.133 .261 125.162 .000 .011 .206 .837 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 30 10, WILDItOSE Audit Division 99.00 1 (Constant) .964 .006 SalePeriod .001 .001 a. Dependent Variable: salesratio .078 165.486 .000 1.595 .111 There was no residual market trending present in the sale ratio data for any of the economic areas; we therefore concluded that the assessor has adequately addressed market trending in the valuation of residential properties. Sold/Unsold Analysis In terms of the valuation consistency between sold and unsold residential properties, we compared the median actual value per square foot for 2021 between each group. The data was analyzed both as a whole and broken down by economic area, as follows: Report VALSF sold N Median Mean UNSOLD 80792 $215 $215 SOLD 11527 $213 $217 Report VALSF ECONAREA sold N Median Mean .00 2.00 3.00 UNSOLD SOLD 6416 $228 $226 914 $226 $224 UNSOLD 23304 $217 $218 SOLD 4209 $211 $216 UNSOLD 17793 $211 $219 SOLD 2920 $210 $218 4.00 UNSOLD 6446 $200 $204 SOLD 809 $202 $208 5.00 6.00 7.00 UNSOLD 1443 $189 $187 SOLD 115 $206 $204 UNSOLD 17251 $229 $223 SOLD 1612 .__ $234 $230 UNSOLD 814 $117 _.^ $127 SOLD 34 _....._. _.._.._$141._.___.. $164 8.00 UNSOLD 701 $177 $179 SOLD 70 $203 $195 9.00 UNSOLD 2678 $219 $211 SOLD 384 $225 $220 99.00 UNSOLD 3678 $182 $171 SOLD 419 $185 $189 NOTE: Econ Area 99 = Condominiums Please note that economic areas with significant differences based on the actual value per square foot comparison were also tested using the percent change in value method; in each case, those economic areas showed no significant difference between sold and unsold residential properties using this second method. We also stratified this analysis by residential neighborhoods with at least 30 sales, as follows: 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 31 WILDROSE INCOVPINI Audit Division Report VALSF NBHD sold N Median Mean 71 UNSOLD 653 $245 $241 SOLD 87 $244 $243 72 UNSOLD 318 $224 $225 SOLD 61 $214 $220 78 UNSOLD 241 $205 $209 SOLD 39 $219 $219 79 UNSOLD 335 $181 $189 SOLD 81 UNSOLD 38 $189 $195 334 $221 $217 SOLD 48 $214 $215 83 UNSOLD 659 $172 $178 SOLD 67 $176 $180 171 UNSOLD 814 ._._ $251 $246 SOLD 132 $232 $233 174 UNSOLD 788 $229 $225 SOLD 225 $227 $224 674 UNSOLD 28 $197 $195 SOLD 32 $197 $191 2002 UNSOLD 610 $231 $232 SOLD 44 _.. $237 Vm mtt $230 2005 UNSOLD 829 $254 $249 SOLD 81 $262 $255 2006 UNSOLD 373 $225 $227 2007 SOLD 47 $223 $233 UNSOLD ` 652 $262 $261 SOLD 58 $270 $262 2011 UNSOLD 566 $220 $231 SOLD 133 $238 $250 2013 UNSOLD 741 $216 $220 SOLD 175 $232 $227 2016 UNSOLD 515 $182 $181 SOLD 180 _.._ ...,_ $173 $181 2018 UNSOLD 155 $227 $224 SOLD 35 $233 $222 2019 UNSOLD 398 $225 $229 SOLD 246 $240 $239 2020 UNSOLD 671 $201 $203 SOLD 449 $196 $198 2021 UNSOLD 288 $195 $201 SOLD 410 ... ....__.. $193 _.. $203 2060 UNSOLD 523 $229 $225 SOLD 52 $227 $226 2061 UNSOLD 347 $227 $218 SOLD 48 $211 $213 2100 UNSOLD 712 $216 ._. $214 SOLD 54 $219 $217 2101 UNSOLD 392 $219 _ $218 SOLD 38 $228 $227 2102 UNSOLD 557 $233 $230 SOLD 55 $229 ._.._ $231 2103 UNSOLD s 510 $197 $205 SOLD 55 $194 $206 2105 UNSOLD 507 $198 $201 SOLD 44 $200 $209 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 32 WOP A ILDISE Audit Division 2106 UNSOLD 242 $213 $214 SOLD 68 $226 $221 2107 UNSOLD 704 $209 $211 SOLD 100 $217 $219 2108 UNSOLD 301 $199 $211 SOLD 45 $239 $229 2110 UNSOLD 1024 $221 $221 SOLD 99 $228 $227 2111 UNSOLD 2346 $223 $223 SOLD 198 $210 $217 2112 UNSOLD 904 $193 $194 SOLD 82 $192 $195 Total 986 $192 $194 2115UNSOLD 212 $227 $226, 2117 UNSOLD 180 $214 $213 $196 1 $199 SOLD 67 $198 $207 2118 UNSOLD 467 $221 $220 SOLD 59 $238 $230 2120 UNSOLD 512 $218 $214. SOLD 70 $221 $217 2121 UNSOLD 331 $247 $248 SOLD 62 $270 $265 2122 UNSOLD 190 $197 $203 SOLD 236 $190 $199 2151 UNSOLD 591 $232 $229 SOLD 93 $227 $227 Total 684 $232 $229 2152 UNSOLD 296 $208 $210 SOLD 124 $204 $214 2155 UNSOLD 99 $157 $174 SOLD 97 $155 . _ $173 2252 UNSOLD 312 270 $267 SOLD 43 $293 $288 2657 UNSOLD 204 $207 $208 my SOLD 40 $205 $207 2690 UNSOLD 40 $189 $181 SOLD 47 $189 $190 3000 UNSOLD 318 $187 $191 SOLD ' 41 $209 $201 3003 UNSOLD 324 $198 $202 SOLD 56 $205 $199 3004 UNSOLD 124 $210 $211 SOLD 122 $198 $199 3008 UNSOLD 666 $204 $213 SOLD 450 $207 $219 3012 UNSOLD 559 $205 $212 SOLD 80 $208 $213 3013 UNSOLD 1309 $218 $229 SOLD 142 $221 $240 3017 UNSOLD 325 $220 $221 SOLD 163 $224 $225 3024 UNSOLD 322 $209 $213 SOLD 83 $208 $218 3025 UNSOLD 754 $227 $233 SOLD 230 $200 $199 3026 UNSOLD 1357 $212 $214 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 33 WILDROSE Audit Division 3027 SOLD UNSOLD SOLD 46 $232 $230 151 $203 $212 340 $226 $230 3030 UNSOLD 579 $195 $202 SOLD 138 $193 $201 3031 UNSOLD 579 $269 $264 SOLD 62 $260 $268 3032 UNSOLD 621 $208 SOLD 3034 UNSOLD 246 $200 $215 $209 135 $204 $206 SOLD 225 $200 $216 3037 UNSOLD 934 $197 $202 SOLD 130 $201 $209 Total 1064 $198 $203 3038UNSOLD 1155 $200 $203 SOLD 140 $208 $212 3055 UNSOLD 374 $218 $229 SOLD 30 $201 $215 3122 UNSOLD 299 $212 $220 SOLD 4000 UNSOLD SOLD 154 52 $211 $218 457 $191 $195 $184 $183 4002 UNSOLD 408 $204 $207 SOLD 93 $205 $210 4004 UNSOLD 571 $179 $188 SOLD 202 $183 $195 4102 UNSOLD 231 $195 $194 SOLD 85 $196 $193 4103 UNSOLD 591 $254 $256 SOLD 62 $258 $259 4105 UNSOLD 802 $247 $243 SOLD 39 $270 $261 4123 UNSOLD 274 $235 $232 SOLD 31 $231 $232 4220 UNSOLD 101 $245 $234 SOLD 32 $267 $253 5001 UNSOLD 412 $206 $211 SOLD 46 $226 $227 6003 UNSOLD 371 $232 $223 SOLD 46 $225 $225 6021 UNSOLD 732 $250 $245 SOLD 66 $247 $247 6023 UNSOLD 301 $203 $201 SOLD 34 $209 $207 6025 UNSOLD 823 $217 $216 SOLD 71 $208 $214 6027 UNSOLD 379 $228 $226 SOLD 74 $239 $232 6029 UNSOLD 987 $238 $233 SOLD 75 $247 $243 6030 UNSOLD 772 $214 $216 SOLD 75 $223 $224 _ 6031 UNSOLD 1738 $225 $221 SOLD 132 $231 $223 6033 UNSOLD 735 $229 $230 SOLD 74 $256 $247 6034 UNSOLD 1416 $242 $235 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 34 10, WILDROSE Audit Division 6035 SOLD 163 $248 UNSOLD 1283 SOLD 145 $231 $228 6037 UNSOLD 1348 $223 $222 SOLD 110 $228 $229 6038 UNSOLD 1266 $241 $228 SOLD 105 $265 $252 6045 UNSOLD 795 $256 $251 SOLD 58 $267 $258 6050 UNSOLD 592 $241 $233 SOLD 40 $268 $269 6062 UNSOLD 935 $242 $240 SOLD 160 $237 $240 6207 UNSOLD 619 $153 $166 SOLD 33 $130 $149 9009 UNSOLD 403 $210 $206 SOLD 33 $227 $219 9010 UNSOLD 578 $223 $221 SOLD 64 $224 $220 9014 UNSOLD 113 $227 $212 SOLD 54 $227 $212 9040 UNSOLD 76 $216 $218 SOLD 87 $236 $227 NOTE: Econ Area 9999 = Condominiums The above results indicate that sold and unsold residential properties were valued in a consistent manner. IV. COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL SALE RESULTS There were 222 qualified commercial/industrial sales that occurred in the 18 month sale period ending June 30, 2020. The sales ratio analysis results were as follows: Median 0.993 Price Related Differential 1.011 Coefficient of Dispersion 6.2 The above table indicates that the Weld County vacant land sale ratios were in compliance with the SBOE standards. The following histogram and scatter plot describe the sales ratio distribution further: 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 35 120 100 80 C v 7 60 Li - 40 20 2.0 1.5 m 1.0 R N 0.5 0.0 WILDRQSE APPAL%NM 1%144211)1VT Ti Audit Division 0.0 0.5 1 1.0 salosratio 1.5 2.0 Mean = .99 Std. Dev. = .117 N = 222 x Commercial Sale Price by Sales Ratio 5, x xe. x x -,..: . x %fix X x x y► M x SO $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 TASP Commercial /Industrial Market Trend Analysis The commercial/industrial sales were next analyzed, examining the sale ratios across the 18 -month sale period with the following results: 2021 Statistical Report: VC LLD COUNTY Page 31 Coefficientsa Model 1 (Constant) SalePeriod WILD AArw 5h tt I'.' commit -tin Audit Division Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error Standardized Coefficients Beta t Sig. . 992 . 015 . 000 . 002 -.020 65.950 .000 -.296 .767 a. Dependent Variable: salesratio '2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 + Commercial Market Trend Analysis + r.. + •tegi.• •ate t + + + + + * t eitef + + + + + + + + ne. •;or + + + •lemsein••met + + + + + 0 5 10 SalePeriod 15 20 There was no residual market trending present in the commercial sale ratios. We concluded that the assessor has adequately considered market trending adjustments as part of the vacant land valuation. Sold/Unsold Analysis We compared the median change in value between valuation year 2018 and valuation year 2020 between sold and unsold groups to determine if sold and unsold properties were valued consistently, as follows: Report DIFF sold N Median Mean UNSOLD SOLD 5112 1.0533 1.1041 202 1.1547 1.2205 Based on the number of subclasses for commercial and industrial properties, we chose only major subclasses with at least 10 sales for this analysis: i.e. those with improved abstract codes of 2212, 2220, 2230, 2235, 2245, and 3215. The following analysis was then performed: 2021 Statistical Report: `VELD COUNTY Pa`c 37 Report DIFF ABSTRIMP sold N WILD ,'E Vir;+t..,+ I. . ( VP( *1 It It Audit Division Median Mean 2212.00 2220.00 2230.00 2235.00 2245.00 U NSOLD SOLD UNSOLD SOLD U NSOLD SOLD U NSOLD SOLD U NSOLD SOLD 691 31 364 21 970 34 1002 21 999 69 1.0210 1.2286 1.0109 1.0667 1.0500 1.2115 1.0782 1.2286 1.0550 _1.1719 1.0812 1.2553 1.0866 1.1609 1.1017 1.2590 1.1350 1.3057 1.0955 1.1911 We will consult with the assessor concerning the significant difference observed for several commercial subclasses. V. VACANT LAND SALE RESULTS There were 222 qualified residential sales that occurred in the 18 -month sale period ending June 30, 2020. The sales ratio analysis results were as follows: Median 1.000 Price Related Differential 1.009 Coefficient of Dispersion 10.4 The above ratio statistics were in compliance overall with the standards set forth by the Colorado State Board of Equalization (SBOE) for the overall vacant land sales. The following graphs describe further the sales ratio distribution for all of these properties: 60 C 40 S a. v 20 0 1 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 salesratio 14 1F 1R 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY WILD 1vs•wto. a h.+wNH* tot• Audit Division 0 U, 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 Vacant Land x Sale Price by Sales Ratio x x x kxx OE xx x xx xx at x x 4, x x • `vs. x x x X IM N x![ IN x x x N N x ` N x ' x x x'!c x x Sil X x x X x x x x xx x x x x x x IC x $0 $250,000 $500,000 $750,000 $1,000,000 $1,250,000 TASP The above histogram indicates that the distribution of the vacant land sale ratios was within state mandated limits. No sales were trimmed. Vacant Land Market Trend Analysis We next analyzed the vacant land dataset using the 18 -month sale period, with the following results: Coefficients' Model 1 (Constant) SalePeriod .002 Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. .961 a. Dependent Variable: salesratio . 019 . 002 .078 50.161 .000 1.162 .247 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 39 to to fR to 1 .8 1.6 1 .4 1.0 0.8 0.6 WILD ' O. E \rt•ett,,;: 1.4,lulKtkIIFu Audit Division Vacant Land Sales Market Trend Analysis + + + + + + + + *t + + + + + + + + .j+. + + + + t$..+0.+.t.t.tset..+*llt + ++ * + + +* ++ + +t+ + + + ++ + + 0 S 10 SalePeriod 15 20 The above analysis indicated that no significant market trending was present in the vacant land sale data. We concluded that the assessor has adequately dealt with market trending for vacant land properties. Sold/Unsold Analysis In terms of the valuation consistency between sold and unsold vacant land properties, we compared the median change in actual value for valuation year 2018 and valuation year 2020 between each group. We stratified the vacant land properties by subdivision and found overall consistency. The following results present the overall comparison results: Report DIFF sold N Median Mean UNSOLD 6748 SOLD 201 1.1000 1.1232 1.0937 1.1631 We also compared sold and unsold changes in value by subdivision with at least 6 sales, as follows: Report DIFF SUBDIVNO sold N Median Mean 2528 3372 6903 7039 U NSOLD 37 SOLD 17 - U NSOLD 3 SOLD 9 U NSOLD 16 SOLD 6 UNSOLD 23 SOLD 10 1.1180 1.1261 1.0769 1.0769 .4631 .9648 1.0000 1.0000 1.1280 1.2839 1.0769 . 9333 . 4571 . 7976 1.0739 1.0680 Overall, we concluded that the county assessor valued sold and unsold vacant properties consistently. 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 40 WILDROSE Audit Division V. CONCLUSIONS Based on this 2021 audit statistical analysis, residential, commercial/industrial and vacant land properties were found to be in compliance with state guidelines. 2021 Statistical Report: \V[1 D COUNTY Page 41 010, WILDRC)SE Audit Division STATISTICAL ABSTRACT Residential Patio Statistics for CUPPTOT / TASP 95% Confidence Interval for Mean 95% Confidence Interval for Median 95% Confidence Interval for Coefficient of Weighted Mean Variation Actual Weighted Price Related Coefficient of Mean ECONAREA Mean Lower Bound Upper Bound Median Lower Bound Upper Bound Coverage Mean Lower Bound Upper Bound Differential Dispersion Centered .981 .964 .999 .970 .950 .981 97.2% .977 .961 .993 1.004 .040 5.7% .00 .974 .971 .978 .974 .971 .976 95.6% .972 .968 .976 1.003 .041 5.8% 2.00 .971 .969 .973 .969 .968 .971 95.2% .968 .965 .971 1.003 .044 6.3% 3.00 .970 .968 973 .970 .968 .971 95.2% .965 .962 .968 1.005 .049 7.0% 4.00 981 .976 .987 .979 .976 .984 95.1% .977 .971 .982 1.005 .047 7.8% 5.00 972 .952 .992 .969 .955 .985 96.0% 959 .940 .978 1.014 .074 10.9% .6.00 .982 .978 .987 .972 .969 .975 95.1% .978 .973 .983 1.004 .064 9.5% 7.00 .940 .880 .999 .959 .883 1.002 97.6% .920 .852 .989 1.021 .131 18.1% 8.00 959 .929 990 .972 941 .984 95.9% .952 .927 .977 1.008 .083 13.3% 9.00 971 .963 .978 .969 .965 .974 95.4% .969 .962 977 1.001 050 7.6% 99.00 .972 .966 .978 .971 .967 .974 95.9% .970 .965 .974 1.002 .036 6.2% The confident e Interval for the median is constructed without any distribution assumptions. The actual coverage level may be greater than the specified level. Other confidence Intervals are constructed by assuming a Normal distribution for the ratios. Commercial Land Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT I TASP 95% Confidence Interval for Mean 95% Confidence Interval for Median 95% Confidence Interval for Weighted Mean Actual Weighted Price Related Coefficient of Mean Lower Bound Upper Bound Median Lower Bound Upper Bound Coverage Mean Lower Bound Upper Bound Differential Dispersion Coefficient of Variation Mean Centered .988 .972 1.003 .993 .986 .998 96.3% .977 .952 1.002 1.011 .062 11.9% The confidence interval tor the median is constructed without any distribution assumptions. The actual coverage level may be greater than the specified level. Other confidence intervals are constructed by assuming a Normal distribution for the ratios. Vacant Land Ratio Statistics for CURRLND / TASP 95% Confidence Interval for Mean 95% Confidence Interval for Median 95% Confidence Interval for Weighted Mean Coefficient of Variation Actual Weighted Price Related Coefficient of Mean Mean Lower Bound Upper Bound Median Lower Bound Upper Bound Coverage Mean Lower Bound Upper Bound Differential Dispersion Centered .980 .959 1.001 1.000 .979 1.000 96.3% .971 .947 .995 1.009 .104 16.3% The confidence interval for the median is constructed without any distribution assumptions. The actual coverage level may be greater than the specified level. Other confidence intervals are constructed by assuming a Normal distribution for the ratios. 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 42 WILDIE SE APPRALti.V_ i CO4 POlW ED Audit Division Residential Median Ratio Stratification Subclass Case Processing Summary Count Percent ABSTRIMP 1212.00 10970 _95.2% 1213.50 3 0.0% 1214.00 2 0.0% 1215.00 97 0.8% 1220.00 25 0.2% 1224.29 1 0.0% 1225.00 6 0.1% 1230.00 419 3.6% 1466.50 1 0.0% 1 .__ 0.0% 1 0.0% 1 0.0% 2235.00 9240.00 9250.00 Overall 11527 100.0% Excluded 0 _.___�..____...... Total 11527 Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Coefficient of Price Related Coefficient of Variation Group Median Differential Dispersion Median Centered 1212.00 .971 1.005 .049 7.3% 1213.5O .745 1.012 .134 20.7% 1214.00 1.116 1.009 .104 14.7% 1215.00 .970 .996 .072 12.9% 1220.00 .980 1.004 .055 8.8% 1224.29 .959 1.000 .000 1225.00 1.000 .996 .019 2.9% 1230.00 .970 1.002 .035 6.1% 1466.50 .740 _ 1.000 .000 . 2235.00 1.060 1.000 .000,..._._ 9240.0O .921 1.000 .000 9250.00 .934 1.000 .000 . Overall .971 1.004 .049 7.3% Age Case Processing Summary Count Percent AgeRec Over 100 296 2.6% 75 to 100 189 1.6% 50 to 75 609 5.3% 25 to 50 1286 11.2% 5 to 25 4334 37.6% 5 or Newer 4813 41.8% Overall Excluded Total 11527 100.0% 0 11527 202 1 \\:(1d Conntti Property \ sc,,rncnt, Study Page 4-3 WILDRcSE Audit Division Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Group Over 100 .985 1.016 .106 75 to 100 .946 1.006 .097 50 to 75 .969 1.009 .075 25 to 50 .968 .999 .061 5 to 25 .969 1.003 .045 5 or Newer .975 1.005 .040 Overall .971 1.004 .049 Price Related Coefficient of Median Differential Dispersion Coefficient of Variation Median Centered 15.5% 14.2% 11.00/0 8.9% 6.5% 5.6% 7.3% Improved Area Case Processing Summary Count Percent ImpSFRec LE 500 sf Overall Excluded 12 0.1% 500 to 1,000 sf 641 5.6% 1,000 to 1,500 sf 3343 29.6-%----- 1,500 to 2,000 sf 3924 34.0% 2,000 to 3,000 sf 2955 25.6% 3,000 sf pr Higher 652 5.7% 11527 100.0% 0 Total 11527 Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Price Related Group Median Differential LE 500 sf .963 1.031 500 to 1,000sf .951 1.008 1,000 to 1,500 sf .972 1.003 1,500 to 2,000 sf .971 1.003 2,000 to 3,000 sf .974 1.004 3,000 sf or Higher .964 1.001 Overall .971 1.004 Coefficient of Coefficient of Variation Dispersion Median Centered .189 26.0% .067 10.0% .044 7.0% .043 6.2% .049 7.1% .082 11.5% .049 7.3% Improvement Quality Case Processing Summary Count Percent QUALITY 2 3 4 2 0.0% 115 �..... _. 1.0% 1993 17.3% 8889 77.1% 458 4.0% 5 63 0.5% 0 Overall 11527 100.0% 0 Excluded Total 11527 2021 Statistical Report: WEED COUNTY Page 44 WILDI2OSE Audit Division Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Price Related Coefficient of Group Median Differential Dispersion Coefficient of Variation Median Centered .923 .999 .008 1.1% .967 1.013 .109 14.6% 2 .968 1.004 .066 10.3% .971 ..___._ 1.004 .043 6.1% 4 .972 1.010 .074 9.8% 5 .988 1.014 .089 12.6% 6 .941 1.030 .109 19.8% Overall .971 1.004 .049 7.3% Improvement Condition Case Processing Summary Count Percent CONDITION Overall Excluded Total 5 0.0% 2 3 4 30 0.3% 11483 99.6% 9 0.1% 11527 100.0% 0 11527 Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Price Related Coefficient of Group Median Differential Dispersion 1 1.054 .974 .163 2 .929 1.055 .165 3 .971 1.004 .048 4 1.004 1.002 .040 Overall .971 1.004 .049 Coefficient of Variation Median Centered 33.1% 21.4% 7.2% 5.3% 7.3% Commercial Median Ratio Stratification Sale Price Case Processing Summary Count Percent SPRec LT $25K 3 1.4% __ $50K to $10QK $ 3.6% $100K to $150K 23 10.4% $150K to $200K 25 11.3% $200K to $300K 27 12.2% $300K to $500K 43 19.4% $500K to $750K 22 9.9% $750K to $1,000K 16 7.2% Over $1,000K 55 24.8% Overall 222 100.0% 0 Excluded Total 222 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 45 00, WILOROSE Audit Division Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Group LT $25K $50K to $100K 1.005 $100K to $150K .986 1.002 .065 $150K to $200K .985 1.000 .055 $200K to $300K 1.014 .998 .052 $300K to $500K .991 .998 .051 $500K to $750K 1.000 1.000 .052 $750K to $1,000K .999 .999 .038 Over $1,000K .981 .998 .060 Overall .993 1.011 .062 Price Related Coefficient of Median Differential Dispersion 1.056 1.128 Coefficient of Variation Median Centered .300 58.1% 1.011 .115 19.4% 10.1% 8.6% 7.0% 11.2% 7.5% Subclass ase Processing Summary Count Percent ABSTRIMP 1212.00 122O.00 1712.00 1716.00 2183.85 1 0.5% 0.5% 0O55% 0.5% 0.5% 2212.00 31 14.0% 2215.00 1 0.5% 2220.00 23 10.4% 2223.50 2223.75 2227.50 1 0.5% 1 0.5% 0.5% 2230.00 38 17.1% 2232.00 1 0.5% 2232.50 1 0.5% 2233.00 1 0.5% 2235.00 25 11.3% __m.... 2245.00 75 33.8% 2556.67 1 0.5% 2725.00 1 0.5% 2779.44 1 0.5% 2917.40 1 0.5%m 3212.00 2 0.9% 3215.00 8 3.6% 3225.00 1 0.5% 9239.00 1 0.5% 9249.00 1 0.5% 9259.0O 1 0.5% Overall Excluded Total 222 100.0% 0 222 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 46 WILDROSE Audit Division Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Coefficient of Price Related Coefficient of Variation Group Median Differential Dispersion Median Centered 1212.00 1.118 1.000 .000 1220.00 .754 1.000 .000 1712.00 1.064 1.000 .000 1716.00 .999 1.000 .000 2183.85 1.000 1.000 .000 2212.00 .994 1.002 .050 9.6% 2215.00 .616 1.000 .000 2220.00 .999 1.038 .069 20.3% 2223.50 .982 1.000 .000 2223.75 .968 1.000 .000 2227.50 .950 1.000 .000 . 2230.00 .998 .997 .066 10.9% 2232.00 .984 1.000 .000 2232.50 .975 1.000 .000 2233.00 .993 1.000 .000 2235.00 .993 1.082 .060 11.5% 2245.00 .986 1.014 .057 8.3% 2556.67 1.067 1.000 .000 . 2725.00 1.000 1.000 .000 2779.44 1.000 1.000 .000 2917.40 .987 1.000 .000 . 3212.00 .991 1000 .000 0.0% 3215.0O .990 1.009 .035 4.7% 3225.00 .452 1.000 .000 9239.00 1.243 1.000 .000 9249.00 1.000 1.000 .000 9259.00 .963 1.000 .000 Overall .993 1.011 .062 11.8% Age Case Processing Summary Count Percent AgeRec Over 100 15 6.8% 75 to 100 8 3.6% 50 to 75 19 8.6% 25 to 50 40 18.0% 5 to 25 97 43.7% 5 or Newer 43 19.4% Overall 222 100.0% Excluded 0 Total 222 2021 Statistical Report: WEED COUNTY Page 47 ige WILDIcSE Audit Division Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Coefficient of Price Related Coefficient of Variation Group Median Differential Dispersion Median Centered Over 100 .984 1.006 .032 4.6% 75 to 100 .961 .996 .054 9.8% 50 to 75 1.004 1.101 .134 25.9% 25 to 50 .993 .999 .037 5.9% 5 to 25 .995 .996 .061 11.0% 5 or Newer .981 1.026 .063 9.8% Overall .993 1.011 .062 11.8% Improved Area Case Processing Summary Count Percent ImpSFRec LE 500 sf 7 3.2% 500 to 1,000 sf 19 8.6% 1,000 to 1,500 sf 38 17.1% 1,500 to 2,000 sf 19 86% 2,000 to 3,000 sf 34 15.3% .. 3,000 sf or Higher 105 47.3%_ Overall 222 100.0% Excluded 0 Total 222 Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Group LE 500 sf .986 500 to 1,000 sf � .986 1,000 to 1,500 sf .989 1,500 to 2,000 sf .968 2,000 to 3,000 sf .998 3,000 sf or Higher .997 Overall .993 Coefficient of Price Related Coefficient of Variation Median Differential Dispersion Median Centered 1.020 .162 26.5% 1.055 __._._..., .111 24.1% 1.020 .054 7.8% 1.011 .048 7.8% 1.007 .040 6.7% 1.014 .057 1.011 .062 10.5% 11.8% Improvement Quality Case Processing Summary Count Percent QUALITY 1 5 2.3% 21 5 6.8% 3 165 74.3% 4 37 ._ 16.7% Overall Excluded Total 222 100.0% 222 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 48 Excluded Total WILDROSE Audit Division Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Coefficient of Price Related Coefficient of Variation Group Median Differential Dispersion Median Centered 1 .998 1.171 .205 46.3% 2 .987 _._._.,.__. _._ 1.003 .033 4.2% 3 .994 1.015 .060 10.5% 4 .985 .983 .058 10.1% Overall .993 1.011 .062 11.8% Improvement Condition Case Processing Summary Count Percent CONDITION 2 6 2.7% 0 3 _...,.� 215 96.8 °... 4 1 0.5% Overall 222 tl 100.0% Excluded 0 Total 222 Ratio Statistics for CURRTOT / TASP Coefficient of Price Related Coefficient of Variation Group Median Differential Dispersion Median Centered 2 .989 .991 .015 2.1% 3 .993 1.013 .062 11.8% 4 .667 1.000 .000 Overall .993 1.011 .062 11.8% Vacant Land Median Ratio Stratification Sale Price Case Processing Summary Count Percent SPRec LT $25K 7 3.2% $25K to $50K 16 7.2% $50K to $100K 74 33.3% $100K to $150K 50 22.5% $150K to $200K 21 .__ 95%_ $200K to $300K 17 7.7% $300K to $500K 20 9.0% $500K to $750K 10 4.5% $750K to $1,000K 3 1.4% Over $1,000K 4_. 1.8% Overall 222 100.0% 0 222 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Pate 49 WILDRC6E Audit Division Ratio Statistics for CURRLND / TASP Group Median Price Related Coefficient of Differential Dispersion LT $25K ` 1.083 .987 $25K to 50K 1.003 .990 _ $50K to $100K 1.000 1.004 $100K to $150K .942 1.002 $150K to $200K .987 .996 $200K to $300K 1.000 1.005 $300K to $500K .953 $500K to $750K .962 .996 $750K to $1,000K 1.000 1.002 Over $1,000K .998 1.001 Overall 1.000 1.008 1.009 .070 .176 .069 .097 .153 Coefficient of Variation Median Centered 8.7% 26.1% 12.0% 13.8% 22.4% .108 .149 .090 14.7% .027 23.8% 12.9% 5.6% .016 .104 2.5% 16.1% Subclass Case Processing Summary Count Percent ABSTRLND 100.00 70 31.5% 200.00 28 12.6% 300.00 4 1.8% 520.00 540.00 550.00 1112.00 ' 98 125.00, 1 2112.00 3 2115.00 2120.00 2 2130.00 - 6 2135.00, 6 Overall Excluded Total 222 0 222 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 44.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 2.7%_ 2.7% 100.0% Ratio Statistics for CURRLND / TASP Group Median 100.00 .993 1.022 _ 200.00 .979 .975 300.00 .984 1.010 520.00 1.036 1.000 540.00 .984 1.000 550.00 .950 1.000 1112.00 1.000 1.007 1125.00 .966 1.000 Price Related Coefficient of Differential Dispersion Coefficient of Variation Median Centered .134 18.7% .181 25.5% .137 21.1% .000 .000 .000 .068 2112.00 1.049 .997 057m 11.1% 2115.00 .921 1.000 .000 2120.00 .945 .972 .058 2130.00 956 ._. 1.005 .118 2135.00 1.002 1.014 .053 Overall 1.000 1.009 .104 11.4% 8.2% 17.0% 7.8% 16.1% 2021 Statistical Report: WELD COUNTY Page 50 Hello