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HomeMy WebLinkAbout971923.tiffWELD COUNTY, COLORADO ostar Mixed Use Development Plan OACKerOUND INrOKIIATION det4 ',!;47 0 X V ;4074 �!!!,I!!l;Illpg ll!!�eteeZvereeeise QS' ree - :-. •.•'I�:, ll�:, ll. lit!-� I�:' ll�.jl i e lllj e 'I..ii•yIi'�I�ei eIIIIeIIII�IIII` llll `li:I 4-,...:4 iljllt ," we?' ignelllIerne Mill !I!� Il•11 -,,y , II.jlllll It'.Iltltt!!ttlll�!! 5I�I04tillt4Illtj•II�I fl�jll��e,lll ItI,etteceI! tll��,. .. 'Ii�ItI II..�'%wl�i.I:I II �ee I` / .• IIIIIIII tIIII tee neIet l •. !I !II !I !Il `I,III`ei a ll`I�j �Il fe.14 ll,.11ll tIII!! %•I'll: �I��l����I�� e �I'I``I enetlls', t zeliAs.Iil/j• .. Ordinance 191 February 10, 1997 ')7 9; BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS George Baxter, Chairman Connie Harbert, Pro-Tem Dale Hall Barbara Kirkmeyer W.H. Webster WELD COUNTY PLANNING COMMISSION Arlan Mans, Chairman Shirley Camenisch Jack Epple Ann Garrison Marie Koolstra Cristie Nicklas Rusty Tucker Glenn Vaad Fred Walker DEPARTMENT OF PLANNING SERVICES Monica Daniels -Mika, Director Gloria Dunn, Current Planner Shani Eastin, Current Planner Sharyn Frazer, Office Manager Chris Goranson, Current Planner Todd Hodges, Planner II Kerri Keithley, Current Planner Stephanie Van Arsdol, Planning Technician Sharon White, Planning Technician TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ed Jordan, Weld County Sheriff Michael Kennedy, CDOT Lee Lawson, St. Vrain Sanitation District Bill Meier, United Power Randy Rivers, Colorado Division of Parks Scott Toillion, St. Vrain School District Jerry Ward, Mountain View Fire District Hank Whitler, Little Thompson Water District John Zadel, Central Weld County Water District COUNTY DEPARTMENTS Bruce Barker, County Attorney Lee Morrison, Assistant County Attorney Don Warden, Director of Finance Drew Scheltinga, Weld County Engineer Jeff Stoll, Director of Environmental Health Table of Contents Section 4. Background of the Mixed Use Development Area 1 4.1 Intent 1 4.1.2 Background Planning 1 4.2 Inventory and Analysis 2 4.2.1 Existing Conditions 2 4.2.2 Community and Civic Facilities and Services 8 4.2.3 Transportation 11 4.2.4 Utility Infrastructure 12 4.2.5 Existing Parks, Recreation and Floodplain Resources 24 4.3 Market Factors and Likely Trends 27 4.3.1 Market Conditions 27 4.3.2 MUD Area Growth Projections 30 4.3.3 Likely Trends 31 4.4 MUD Structural Land Use Plan 35 4.4.1 Principles for Community Structure and Growth 36 4.4.2 Transportation 38 4.4.3 Community Services 43 4.4.4 Parks, Trails, and Floodplain 45 4.4.5 Development Cost Consideration 47 Tables Table 4.1 School Capacity and Projected Enrollments 8 Table 4.2 MUD Water Districts 16 Table 4.3 Range of Likely MUD Area Residential Development 31 Table 4.4 Land Use Plan Distribution 37 Table 4.5 MUD Area Plan Trip Generation 39 Table 4.6 St. Vrain School Need Projection Factors 44 Table 4.7 MUD Area School Need Projections 44 Table 4.8 MUD Area: 10 -Year Growth 49 Table 4.9 Total Build -out of MUD Area 51 Table 4.10 Law Enforcement Capital Costs 52 Table 4.11 Preliminary Cost Estimates for Transportation Network 53 Table 4.12 Indirect Street Costs 54 Table 4.13 Parks, Trails and Sites with Limiting Factors 55 Maps Map 4.1 Existing Land Use and Roadways 5 Map 4.2 Existing Zoning and Permitted Uses 7 Map 4.3 Water Services 15 Map 4.4 Sanitary Sewer Services 20 Map 4.5 Natural Gas Services 22 Map 4.6 Priority for Development 23 Map 4.7 Parks, Recreation, and Floodplain Resources 25 Figures Figure 4.1 Proposed CDOT I-25/SH 119 Interchange Improvements 13 Figure 4.2 External Trip Distribution 40 Figure 4.3 Daily Trip Distribution by Purpose 41 References The MUD background information and maps were compiled with assistance from Balloffet & Associates and EDAW Inc. Acronyms and Abbreviations CDOT Colorado Department of Transportation DIA Denver International Airport DU Dwelling Unit FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FPD Fire Protection District HOV High Occupancy Vehicle I-25 Interstate 25 LOS Level of Service MUD Mixed Use Development MUTCO Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices NCWCD Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District PUC Public Utilities Commission PUD Planned Unit Development RTD Regional Transportation District SH State Highway SUP Special Use Permits TDM Transportation Demand Management USR Use by Special Review WCR Weld County Road Section 4 Background of the MUD Area The Mixed Use Development area (MUD area) was recognized in 1987 in the Weld County Comprehensive Plan as a future urban development corridor within Weld County. Since 1987, a minimal amount of development has occurred; however, recent activity has accelerated in the area and in the surrounding communities. This development activity has reinforced the need for long-term approaches to planning in the region, and resulted in the initiation of this planning process. 4.1 Intent This Section of the plan presents a detailed description of the area's physical and social characteristics, regional influences and market trends. The most logical use of land and development of public facilities is presented, so as to create a community structure that is self- sustaining. The total build -out of the area in this plan is considered to be 120 dwelling units per year. The structural transportation and roadway plan depicts proposed roadways as build -out occurs in the area. 4.1.1.1 Background Planning The preparation of the MUD Plan is a result of several phases. In each phase, constant communication occurred through regular meetings with the Technical Advisory Committee, Weld County Department of Planning Services' staff, County Commissioners and public meetings. Planning for the MUD area began by analyzing a variety of plans, studies, agreements, ordinances and general service information concerning the area. This information was reviewed and evaluated for possible influences on the MUD planning area. Existing conditions were evaluated extensively. With the assistance of key members of the Technical Advisory Committee and Weld County Planning staff, regional influences, existing land uses, zoning and planned developments were identified. The types, numbers and location of services were delineated and evaluated in terms of existing capacity and ability to respond to growth. Services evaluated included utilities, transportation systems, community and civic services, and parks and open space. To understand the market forces influencing the area and project expected growth, a real estate market analysis was conducted during the early phases of the study. Land use plan alternatives were developed and evaluated in terms of population densities and levels of commercial, industrial, and retail development. Each alternative reflected viable growth patterns based on the expected trends in the area, its ability to sustain growth and current planning practices. After careful consideration by commissioners, staff and citizens, a preferred alternative was selected and utilized in the creation of the MUD Plan. Mixed Use Development Plan 4.2 Inventory and Analysis This section provides an overview of existing conditions in the MUD area that influence planning. Physical characteristics, land use, regional influences, development, zoning and permitted uses define the basic structure and point of departure for future planning. Service conditions, including fire protection, law enforcement, and community services are presented in terms of how the area is served today, the general cost of providing services and the ability of existing services to respond to growth. The existing transportation framework is described, including current traffic volumes and planned improvements by the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT). Utility infrastructure is evaluated in terms of current ownership, service district boundaries, financing, cost recovery mechanisms, and the ability to support development. Assumptions were made regarding likely development in the MUD area based on the location of existing utilities and the cost for service extensions. Existing parks, recreation and floodplain resources are identified not only within the MUD area but also areas located directly adjacent to it. Plans for improvements to adjacent parks and sites containing Limiting Site Factors are identified to provide a basis for prescribing continuity on a regional basis. 4.2.1 Existing Conditions 4.2.1.1 Regional Influences Regional influences to the MUD area are shown on Map 1.1 on page 2 of the MUD Development Guide. The major regional elements of influence are Interstate 25 (I-25) and the St. Vrain Creek with its accompanying floodplain. I-25 is the major highway providing access to Front Range communities. Due to the significant volume of vehicles that travel on this road daily, each interchange along its length is considered prime for commercial development. The two interchanges located within the MUD area at SH 119 and SH 66 provide a focus for regional growth. The St. Vrain Creek floodplain cuts a relatively wide path in a general east/west direction through the area. The associated drainageways and floodplains support important natural features, including native vegetation, riparian forest and wetlands. They also provide important corridors for wildlife migration. These corridors are logical places to designate as buffers to separate one community from another and for regional trail systems. As a related issue, flood control and drainage will need increasing attention as the area develops. Significant portions of the MUD area along St. Vrain, Boulder, and Idaho Creeks are relatively flat, with high groundwater levels. Thirty-eight percent of this area (or about 4,500 acres) falls within the 100 -year floodplain, as defined on FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps. Development Mixed Use Development Plan 2 along these waterways and within the floodplain is subject to a variety of regulatory restrictions, including the Weld County Comprehensive Plan, Clean Water Act and flood insurance policies. The waterways also present constraints for future development of the area. Expensive bridges would have to be constructed to complete major roadway connections. This inhibits efficient circulation, emergency response times and orderly growth. Associated with the floodplain are commercial sand and gravel deposits located along St. Vrain, Boulder and Idaho Creeks and along secondary drainageways throughout the region. (Sand, Gravel, and Quarry Aggregate, Resources Maps, Longmont, Gowanda, Frederick, and Erie Quadrangle Maps, 7.5 Minute Series, by Ralph R. Shroba, June 30, 1974, USGS.) These mineral deposits will greatly influence the density and types of uses and restrict the ability to develop portions of the area. There are several towns that influence the MUD area with overlapping urban growth boundaries, recent growth and plans for future annexation. Weld County and these towns are currently developing intergovernmental agreements regarding annexations and urban growth area boundaries. Mead, located on the north side of the MUD area, currently has a citizen initiative to consider annexations and has no plan to extend further south in the future. An initiative was passed by citizens in April 1995 to require that all proposed annexations be subject to voter approvals by town residents. Firestone and Frederick, to the southeast, have been rapidly expanding their boundaries. Both communities are within one-half mile of the MUD area boundary, and may annex portions of the MUD area in the future, particularly areas with good industrial and commercial potential. Erie, located southwest of the MUD area, is more than four miles away and has no plans to extend farther north. Erie has, however, annexed portions of the I-25 corridor south of the MUD area for uses that will generate sales and/or property taxes to support its community. Much of the region around the MUD area is considered prime agricultural land, having the best physical and chemical characteristics for producing food, feed, forage, fiber and oilseed crops. This land is rapidly disappearing along the Front Range as it is taken out of agriculture and developed for urban use. When development actually occurs along the annexed portions of I-25, there will be little left of the farmland and open space that has been the dominant landscape feature of this corridor. 4.2.1.2 Structural Land Uses Map 4.1 illustrates the existing major land uses in the MUD area. As stated in the previous section, the MUD area is presently devoted primarily to agricultural uses and scattered residential dwellings, with retail and industrial development nodes at I-25/SH 119 and the I-25/SH 66 interchanges. The floodplain areas along St. Vrain Creek and Boulder Creek, which run along a southwest to northeast alignment, contain extensive sand and gravel reserves. These reserves have been extracted in some areas. Unmined areas within the vicinity will likely feature sand and gravel mining operations in the future. The primary nonagricultural land uses are described below. Mixed Use Development Plan 3 The Del Camino area, located at the I-25/SH 119 interchange, is the primary development node in the MUD area. Shortly after the construction of I-25 in the 1950's and 60's, initial developments included three gas stations, two motels and the 210 -unit River Valley Mobile Home Park. When the St. Vrain Sanitation District was formed in the mid 1980's, fast food restaurants, lodging facilities and trucking service establishments were constructed on the west side of the I- 25/SH 119 interchange. This has become a highly used stop for travelers. Barbour Ponds State Park, a regional recreational facility, is located to the north of the I-25/SH 119 interchange and is a highly used water resource based park. The east side of this interchange features a different type of use. The Colorado National Guard operates a base there, and a number of light industrial uses in the Del Camino Business Park are situated along the frontage road. These businesses include the Hauser Chemical Food Flavoring Division, Gerard's Bakery, Flatiron Structures, Specialty Products (automotive products) and Dovatron Electrical. These facilities are characterized as one to two story light industrial uses. The I-25/SH 66 interchange lies partially inside the Town of Mead. This interchange has fewer retail uses than I-25/SH 199 interchange, with an emphasis on industrial activity. The Sekich Business Park occupies the northeast quadrant of the I-25/SH 66 interchange and features a variety of industrial uses. In the last two years, seven new industrial buildings containing a total of 75,000 square feet have been constructed in this area. It also contains a small convenience center with a gas station and sandwich shop. The John Deere/Uniwest farm equipment supply center and a number of vacant parcels occupy the southeast area of the interchange. 4.2.1.3 Planned or Current Developments The following projects are currently seeking development approvals, or are in early stages of development as of September 1996. They are shown on Map 4.2. LongView: This residential project, currently under development by McStain Enterprises, includes 401 manufactured homes on an 80 -acre parcel on the north side of Highway 119 at WCR 31/2. Homes would be priced from $50,000 to $80,000. Meadow Vale: This recently -approved project proposes the construction of 89 dwelling units on a 155 -acre parcel on the north side of SH 119 at WCR 51/2. This development would feature larger homes, expected to range from 1,600 to 2,500 square feet, with prices from $175,000 to $300,000. Homes would be on one -acre lots, and the community would include a 10 -acre elementary school and an adjacent open space area. Other development proposals in the MUD area include a 5 -acre business park with sites for two 4,000 square foot buildings located roughly two miles west of Del Camino. Mixed Use Development Plan 4 Legend SH119/I-25 INTERCHANGE DETAIL mr I-25 MUD Area Boundary Agricultural Sand and Gravel s Commercial 'a ofnce/Induetrid I A I Residences Calkins Lake (Union Res.) O P Dairy Mobile Home Park Park 100 Year Floodslain .lml• Interstate ••nu 4 Lane Paved Road 2 lane Paved Rood 9A. *• *. 2 Lane Dirt Rood . Existing Signals 0 1500 3000 Feet 1-25 Mixed Use Development Area Structural Plan Map 4.1 Existing Land Use And Roadways February, 1097 4.2.1.4 Zoning and Permitted Uses Planned Unit Developments (PUDs) occupy a significant portion of land within the MUD area. The general land use within each PUD is shown on Map 4.2. When compared to the Existing Land Use and Roadway Map, Map 4.1, it is apparent that the majority of these PUDs have not yet been developed. The remainder of the MUD area is either still zoned as Agriculture or is zoned in relatively small fragments for Commercial, Highway Commercial, Industrial, or Mobile Home uses. Other areas in the MUD area have received Use by Special Review (USR) permits or Special Use Permits (SUP) to perform different activities other than the uses allowed by right in the Agricultural Zone District. The largest use obtaining a USR or SUP within the MUD area is gravel mining, with operations located on St. Vrain Creek, Boulder Creek, and Idaho Creek. These mines are in various stages of operation, with some completed and others not yet started. Map 4.2 shows the location of permitted gravel mines. Additional gravel mines can be anticipated along all of these drainages and may extend beyond the floodplain depending on the economic viability of extraction. The Weld County Comprehensive Plan, in compliance with Colorado Revised Statutes (Section 34-1- 305, 1995), states the following: 'Access to future mineral resource development areas should be considered in all land use decisions in accordance with Colorado State Law. No Weld County governmental authority which has control over zoning shall, by zoning, rezoning, granting a variance, or other official action or inaction, permit the use of any area known to contain a commercial mineral deposit in a manner which would interfere with the present or future extraction of such deposit by an extractor." (Weld County Comprehensive Plan, 6-5.) It is difficult to forecast the life of these mines. They are constrained not only by the depth and quality of mineral reserves, but by market demand for these resources. Since gravel reserves are located below the water table in this area, the reclamation plans for mined lands would likely involve the construction of man-made lakes. These lakes may eventually provide attractive settings for parks or for residential development. In the interim, however, sand and gravel mining issues may limit land development in these areas. Mixed Use Development Plan 6 Legend Mons Lake (Union Res.) I-25 MUD Area Boundary —0 Commercial Highway Commercial ® Industrial Mobile Home Agricultural Mulligan I Res taste Res. INN Planned Unit Development I=Industrial; MHMoblle Home; MU -Mixed Use; 0/C=OHlce/Cammerciol * Proposed P.U.D.'s Other USR/SUP's 100 Year Floodplain Permitted Gravel Mines 4 f L' 88 K I.CR no 25 0 F66W R67W I.C.R. /Y5 31 I.C.R. /2B 0 1500 3000 Feet 1-25 Mixed Use Development Area Structural Plan Map 4.2 Existing Zoning and Permitted Uses November, 1995 4.2.2 Community and Civic Facilities and Services This section identifies the types, numbers, and location of services that support the MUD area. Included is information regarding schools, law enforcement, fire protection and other community - based services. All services are provided by county agencies and districts. Currently, most facilities providing services are located outside the MUD area. Existing facilities are shown on Map 1.1, MUD Planning Boundaries. 4.2.2.1 Schools The MUD area is serviced by the St. Vrain Valley School District. Students living within the boundaries attend schools in Longmont, Frederick, and Mead. The majority of elementary and middle school students attend schools in the City of Mead. Most high school students attend Skyline High School in Longmont. The following table summarizes existing building capacities and projected enrollments based on school district trends. Table 4.1 School Capacity and Projected Enrollments Schools Building Capacity Actual 1995 Actual 1996 Projected Enrollments Projected Avg. Yearly Growth Rate 1997-2001 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Elementary Mead 456 486 528 559 587 618 645 673 4.7% Frederick 864 813 822 835 848 855 874 902 2.0% Indian Peaks 504 483 476 498 514 517 541 552 2.6% Secondary Mead MS 349 311 317 327 338 359 380 396 4.9% Sunset MS 768 751 759 748 764 798 826 826 2.5% Frederick MS/HS 589 533 544 588 588 613 629 634 1.9% Skyline HS 1299 1082 1149 1205 1274 1251 1270 1308 2.1 NiwotHS 1127 1025 1021 1043 1055 1074 1125 1158 2.7% Source: St. Vrain School District Memorandum May 10, 1 Notes: Italics indicate enrollment exceeds capacity MS = Mead Middle School, HS = High School Of the schools listed above, only two (Mead Middle School and Skyline High) show current enrollments that do not exceed capacity. The others currently exceed capacity or are expected to exceed capacity within the next few years. The most immediate need for additional school facilities is at the elementary level. Mixed Use Development Plan 8 There are no plans in place for new construction or expansion of existing schools serving the MUD area. School construction would require a future bond issue. Therefore, residential development would have an immediate impact on the schools serving the area. However, there are a number of short term solutions that can be used to mitigate the current over -capacity conditions. Portable classroom units are commonly used in the district and will continue to be used in the immediate future. Other, less popular solutions include busing students to below capacity schools or changing the existing assignment area boundaries. 4.2.2.2 Law Enforcement The Weld County Sheriffs Department's operation currently includes daily law enforcement activities, administration, code enforcement, and civil process. As of August 1996, there are 172 total staff working for the Weld County Sheriff's Department, including 100 sworn officers and 72 support and administrative staff. The county is divided into four "beats" based on geographic location and caseload. There are five to eight officers assigned to each "beat." The MUD area is included in a "beat" that covers much of southwestern Weld County. Law enforcement responsibilities are shared by the eight officers assigned to this area. There is currently one satellite facility located just outside the MUD area. This facility is shared with the Mountain View Fire Protection District and is located at WCR 13 and WCR 24. There are physical characteristics inherent to the St. Vrain Creek Valley and adjacent lands that contribute to the safety vulnerabilities of the area. Approximately 38 percent of the MUD area lies within the 100 -year floodplain of the St. Vrain, Boulder, and Idaho Creek. The threat of potential flooding is a concern not only to the Sheriff's Department, but to other emergency services as well. The creek also creates a natural barrier that bisects the MUD area. This limits access from one side of the river to the other, causing a potential delay in response times by emergency services. A proposal to build a 620 -bed county jail in Greeley was approved by county vote in November 1995. The first phase, 160 -bed unit, will commence construction in 1996 and should be completed in 1997. This project will meet the incarceration needs throughout the county, including the MUD area, for a number of years. Subsequent phases will be constructed as need arises and funding becomes available. The Weld County Law Enforcement Program encourages the development of policies that will establish community -based law enforcement. These policies will facilitate community -oriented policing for the MUD area, with more interaction between law enforcement officers and residents. More responsibility for law enforcement decisions should rest on the community. Sheriffs Department staff will focus on public education and the development of programs that will empower communities to help themselves, such as neighborhood watch programs. Mixed Use Development Plan 9 4.2.2.3 Fire Protection Fire Protection for the MUD area is provided by the Mountain View Fire Protection District. There are currently two stations serving this area for non -volunteer fire protection staff. Both stations are just outside the MUD area, and provide 24 -hour coverage. There are also five volunteer fire stations within the Mountain View Fire Protection District. Currently, there are an average of 4.29 fire-fighters per 1000 persons, which is well above the national average of 1.63 and the Mountain Region average of 1.51. One paid fire fighter and at least one volunteer fire-fighter respond to each call. Of the current district personnel, approximately 20 percent are career (paid) fire-fighters, and 80 percent are volunteers. Standards for the planning of fire protection facility locations are generally based on response times, with less emphasis given to population requirements. The current response time standard for the Mountain View Fire Protection District is approximately 5 minutes. The district has indicated a desire to maintain an ISO insurance rating of "5", which is assigned to for property located within five miles of a District fire station and within 1,000 feet of a fire hydrant. The addition of the Del Camino station in 1992 resulted in continued highly -rated service standards in the district. The current annual budget for the district is approximately $1.5 million, serving a population of 12,000 persons. All stations, equipment and fire apparatus are purchased through funds provided by the budget from the Mountain View Fire Protection District. Each station conducts fundraisers for additional items. The fire district is adequately staffed to meet the needs of the growing MUD area for some time. Capital improvements will be required in the future to provide at least one additional fire station. This will depend on where development occurs and the resulting response times. General projections of traffic patterns and volumes, along with land use density considerations, should serve as the basis for locating a future fire station facilities. 4.2.2.4 Community Services Community services include community activity centers such as senior centers, youth and recreation centers, libraries, museums and social service agencies. There are currently no community activity facilities in the MUD area. The majority of those living in the MUD area utilize the museum, library and community center located on the east side of the City of Longmont. There is a recreation center in the Town of Frederick, as well. Social Service offices are provided by Weld County, with offices in Greeley and Ft. Lupton. As the MUD area grows, the need for local facilities will increase. Mixed Use Development Plan 10 4.2.3 Transportation Primary access to the MUD area is via I-25. This four -lane interstate provides regional access to Fort Collins to the north and Denver to the south. The primary east -west access is via SH 119 and SH 66. SH 119 is a four -lane, divided highway with at -grade intersections, except at the grade -separated interchange at I-25. SH 119 provides access through the MUD area west to Longmont and Boulder. SH 66 is a two-lane highway that provides access to Estes Park to the west and to U.S. 85 on the east. One other notable road is WCR 1, a north/south facility that parallels I-25 four miles to the east. The remaining roadways in the area consist primarily of two- lane local access roads. These are a mixture of paved and unpaved roads. There are four existing signals within the study area, all on SH 119 and maintained by Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT). These are located at the I-25 northbound and southbound off ramps, Turner Boulevard and WCR 1. The existing roadways within the study area are presented in Map 4.1. To maintain the capacity of arterial roadways, CDOT defines an access category for all state facilities, including I-25, SH 66, and SH 119. Access is limited to provide for the high speed, high volume traffic that the highways are intended to serve. Each is designated for a certain level of allowable public and private access. I-25, a level one designation, does not allow direct private access. Public access is provided via interchanges only. SH 119 and SH 66 have subtle differences in access allowances. In both cases, private access is allowed only if no other reasonable option exists. A 1991 study of the I-25/511 119 interchange area prepared by Felsburg Holt & Ullevig reported significant congestion during most of the daylight hours. This congestion results from high traffic volumes, including a significant proportion of truck traffic, close intersection spacing that limits space available for storage of turning vehicles and a general lack of capacity to move traffic through the signals. The southbound on ramp has been relocated to the south, which now provides a frontage road with access to the freeway -oriented commercial developments. This frontage road also provides access to Turner Boulevard and the southbound I-25 on ramp. Traffic volumes in the area are expected to grow significantly over the next twenty-five years. The daily volume along I-25 south of SH 119 was forecasted by CDOT to increase from the existing 50,000 vehicles per day to 100,000 vehicles per day by the year 2020. CDOT also forecasts increases in daily traffic along SH 66 and SH 119 west of I-25 of 9,000 to 23,000 and 20,000 to 33,000, respectively (I-25/SH 119 Environmental Assessment, CDOT, 1994). Corresponding increases in peak hour traffic are also anticipated. The 1994 environmental assessment for I-25 through Weld County recommended the widening of the interstate to six lanes between SH 52 and SH 66 to accommodate imminent traffic growth. This plan includes an 80' envelope to be reserved as a median in the center of the highway for future options such as High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes or transit. Also recommended was the reconstruction of the I-25/511 119 interchange. The total estimated costs for the 1-25 improvements from SH 7 to SH 66 is $163,102,000. Mixed Use Development Plan 11 CDOT currently has funding for improvements to the I-25 and SH 119 interchange. Construction is expected to begin in 1997. These improvements, as presented schematically on Figure 4.1, include adding through lanes and left turn lanes to SH 119 through the interchange, relocating the east ramps and the east frontage road farther east, and constructing a park -n -Ride on the south side of SH 119 between the relocated ramp and the frontage road. Also, the break in the median between Turner Boulevard and the west ramp intersection will be closed. These modifications are expected to improve operations immediately by providing additional capacity and space to accommodate traffic stopped at the four intersections along SH 119. The widening of the east side of I-25 and relocation of the eastern frontage road farther to the east will limit the maximum width of the frontage road to two lanes. As development continues to occur, the capacity of the two-lane eastern frontage road will be reached, resulting in congestion and left turn safety problems. It should also be noted that the CDOT 1994 Environmental Assessment stated that this completed improvement would only mitigate current demand and some minor intensification. The proposed interchange improvement will not accommodate the growth proposed for the MUD area, which would suggest planning for additional freeway access capacity other than at SH 119. 4.2.4 Utility Infrastructure This section addresses utility systems which presently support the MUD area and are key to its growth and development. Included are water systems, electric power, sanitary sewer, natural gas, and solid waste disposal. These utility systems vary in terms of ownership, financing, cost recovery mechanisms, and ability to support development. This section evaluates the ability of existing utility infrastructure to meet anticipated demands, requirements for utility improvements, the feasibility of such improvements and critical constraints. Water supply is the most significant factor potentially limiting development within the area. Adequate water for fire protection is of particular concern. However, water line construction scheduled for 1996 will improve the situation for easterly and northerly portions of the area, as well as providing a basis for continued development. Other utilities are in a relatively good position to support both current needs and future growth, although this is a function of the timing, extent and location of growth. These and related issues are addressed below. 4.2.4.1 Water Systems Potable water is needed for both domestic use and fire protection. Domestic use is primarily an issue of distribution, and fire protection is an issue of the extent and duration of peak flows. The components of water supply for residential, commercial, and industrial development include raw water supply, treatment, storage and distribution. The extent to which each of these components influences potential development within the MUD area varies, as discussed below. Mixed Use Development Plan 12 Figure 4.1 Proposed CDOT I-25/SH 119 Interchange Improvements Mixed Use Development Plan 13 The MUD area is currently supplied by four water districts on a service area basis, as shown on Map 4.3 and in Table 4.2. Each of these districts is a member of the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District (NCWCD) of Loveland. The NCWCD supplies raw water from the Colorado Big Thompson and Windy Gap Projects to member municipalities and districts for domestic and agricultural use. Project water is conveyed from the Western Slope through a series of tunnels, supply canals, and reservoirs for further distribution and use on the Eastern Slope. The NCWCD is currently constructing the Southern Water Supply Project to provide year-round deliveries of untreated water by pipeline from Carter Lake to participating entities in the area. Although supply costs will vary, raw water supplies are generally available to support growth and development within the MUD area. Conversion of agricultural water rights to municipal uses will likely continue. Water treatment, storage and distribution capacity are interrelated. The capacity of a water district to serve additional customers is related to existing capacity versus current demands, the extent, timing, and location of additional demands, and the costs for providing service. In the near -term, the districts are able to provide a limited number of taps, with certain exceptions, based upon available capacity. As this available capacity is committed, additional service will become increasingly expensive and may require costly system expansions. In the longer term, demands related to MUD area build -out will compete with regional growth and development pressures. Raw water supply for fire protection is an immediate concern, given current capacity restrictions in several of the water district systems in the MUD area. The operative Development Standards for Fire Protection, based upon requirements of the Uniform Fire Code, are provided by the Mountain View Fire Protection District. These standards provide minimum flow, pressure and duration requirements for various occupancy classifications and areas, as well as related fire protection guidance. The standards allow some credit for the use of automatic sprinkler systems and automatic detection, and thus provide some flexibility to support development where all of the water supply requirements are difficult to meet. In terms of distribution capacity, the MUD area is at the geographic extremity of three water supply systems. The following is a summary of the current water systems in the MUD area: Little Thompson Water District service within the area consists of a looped, 6 -inch main which serves the business park area to the northeast of the I-25/SH 66 interchange and a series of small -diameter rural water supply lines. The Central Weld County Water District system, primarily serves an area to the east and south of Del Camino, including the Towns of Frederick, Firestone, and Dacono. The portion of the Central Weld County system serving the east side of I-25 and south of SH 199 is currently supplied through its own system, and there is a cross -tie with the Left Hand system along the west side of I-25. Central Weld County has undertaken considerable system expansion over the last several years. Capacity is limited by current system constraints. Mixed Use Development Plan 14 I • ol me I Z Si km 1' }—`•- C. it Mulligan i r Res. : it 0'\\ 1\ rtl\ \ t —10 20 . 9:11. 114, 11/4-1 ii 1 II_ 1 l/424 1 /9 m . it . RQ /Foster L 6 c: Y 29 WA - Y' 1 t/4' K A/ n••a s.Reiff I- \ I - I Ft Res.2' ! 1e, I N/A _ I' 261 1� L - — 2 titi i 1./2' r [,,J80 W.C.R.1L \ \ 31 T / kips Leke (Union Res II . t 1/4.1 I', 1 21/r I ' / 99\ i \ Ili �� 2',`-,I I/4 84 _ I I L C l e' -" s'f 1 1/C I C� 31 W.C.R. 6M _ -- �1 1j 114a SH 1]0 6. 12.1 t [ _d, , I r9. 110 w i.?p r 4 12 W.CJlJ 121 .� ri UMD , : r n 1 COUNTY ' � c� 1 i2' _�i r. C.R. 622 y � ' '' � ' '* 4 1 ;4 z \ 1 rT+� _� �L "' he 19 -' ^ ��114 , , .__� I . AK ---- i Legend — 1-25 MUD Area Boundary — Water District Boundary — — Left Hand Water District Lines Longs Peak Water District Lines Little Thompson Water District Lines Central Weld Water District Lines — — Proposed Central Weld/ Little Thompson Interconnect m 0 1500 3000 Feet 1-25 Mixed Use Development Area Structural Plan Map 4.3 Water Services November. 1996 Left Hand Water District has historically supplied the I-25/SH 119 area through an 8 -inch main. This is fed by a trunk line which extends from Niwot. In order to serve new development at WCR 31/2 and SH 119 (Long View PUD), Left Hand acquired the Central Weld cross -tie and built a 16 -inch line extension. Other development may be served by this line; however, extension of service beyond that to the Long View PUD will incur significant costs for pumping and storage. The portion of the Longs Peak Water District within the MUD consists of approximately two square miles of predominantly rural area north of St. Vrain Creek and west of I-25. The present water distribution system in this area has small -diameter lines and is currently at capacity. Further information on the water districts which serve the MUD area is given in Table 4.2. Table 4.2 MUD Water Districts Water District Raw Water Source Treatment Plants Analysis Left Hand Water District P.O. Box 210 Niwot, CO 80544 Storage at Andrews Storage Tank located southeast of Niwot, 2.0 million gallon capacity. I. Spurgeon Plant north of Boulder 2. Dodd Plant west of Niwot Limited capacity for future growth. Longs Peak Water District 9875 Vermillion Road Longmont, CO 80501 Carter Lake is source for 90,000 gallon storage tank north of Union Reservoir 1. Kugel Plant in Longmont 2. Plant No. 1 at Terry Lake, N. of Longmont Currently at capacity for existing customers, expansion required for future development. Little Thompson Water District 307 Welch Avenue Berthoud, CO 80513 Carter Lake Filter Plant, capacity 25 million gallons per day Limited capacity for future growth. Central Weld County Water District 2235 2nd Ave. Greeley, CO 80631 Carter Lake Filter Plant, capacity 25 million gallons per day Limited capacity for future growth, at capacity for fire demands. Source: Balloffet & Associates, Inc., 1995 The Weld County Comprehensive Plan includes the following requirement: "The water supply system serving the proposed development site or zone district must deliver a minimum of 500 gallons per minute at 20 pounds per square inch residual pressure for 30 minutes. "(Weld County Comprehensive Plan, 3-16). Mixed Use Development Plan 16 It should be noted that the Mountain View Development Standards are more complex and generally more stringent than the stated MUD Plan requirement. The Mountain View Fire Protection District should be consulted early in the development process to ensure that all water supply requirements are properly met. Financing and Revenue Structure The water districts typically use revenue bonds or notes/mortgages (with collateral) to finance capital expenditures. Water service fees, tap fees and other revenues are used to cover costs, including debt service and operating costs. Water is typically metered and rates are by category of use, tap size and quantity used. There is an annual allotment which is related to meter size and a surcharge for consumption in excess of the annual allotment. Tap and related capital investment fees are used to provide service connections and vary with tap size. Administration and study fees, which vary with tap size, are also typically applied to new service connections. In addition, the districts charge a one-time raw water fee, or may require that the developer provide raw water in the form of Colorado -Big Thompson or Windy Gap Project shares. Fees and rates are generally comparable between the districts. In general, the districts do not have capital expansion financial plans in place to support longer -term growth in the MUD area. Ability to Respond to Growth Current capacity restrictions within the MUD area will be eased, to an extent, by water line construction in progress by the Little Thompson and Central Weld County Districts. Little Thompson will own the 24 -inch portion of this line north of SH 66 and Central Weld County will own the 18 -inch portion of the line south of SH 66; the latter will form a portion of a loop to the east of I-25, intended to serve the Firestone, Frederick and Dacono areas, as well as the development around the I-25/SH 119 interchange. The line will provide increased capacity within both service areas, although future distribution system improvements will be needed as development occurs. There is also a relatively recent agreement between Central Weld County and Left Hand Water Districts to make additional capacity available to the latter, through interconnection between their systems in the area. This will take advantage of the additional capacity afforded by the new line; however, its general use within the Left Hand service area beyond Longview PUD may involve pumping the water back uphill. There has also been discussion involving possible Longs Peak interconnection with the new line. This may offer a viable option to support future development in this portion of Longs Peak's service area. 4.2.4.2 Electric Power The MUD area is within the service territory of United Power, Inc. United Power, with headquarters in Brighton, is a public utility and a member of the Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, Inc. Both are members of the Rural Utility Service (formerly Rural Electrification Association.) The City of Longmont, to the west of the MUD area, has a municipal electric utility, as does the Town of Frederick, to the southeast. Frederick has an agreement for power supply with United Power, whereas residents of Firestone and Dacono are served directly by United Power. Mixed Use Development Plan 17 The MUD area falls within United Power's "Service Area B." Some transmission facilities pass through this area but are not part of United's system. The three United substations in the vicinity, Mead, Del Camino and Dacono, serve various functions related to supplying power at sub - transmission and distribution voltages. United's rate schedules and service provisions are outlined in current Colorado Public Utility Commission (PUC) filings. Depending upon the classification of service provided, demand and energy charges will be assessed and facility charges may be assessed. Ability to Respond to Growth The electric power distribution system in the MUD area is relatively well developed and can accommodate the future growth and development envisioned. Specifically, United Power has plans for expansion in the area, to include the future installation of a substation about one mile east of the I-25/SH 119 interchange. This substation will be constructed as demand warrants. 4.2.4.3 Sanitary Sewer The St. Vrain Sanitation District provides sanitary sewer service throughout the MUD area, as shown on Map 4.4. The district's service area, in part based upon drainage areas, is considerably large, allowing for future expansion. The district was formed in 1986 to provide sanitary sewage collection, treatment, and disposal service in the Del Camino area. Since that time, the district has expanded its boundaries to provide services to a larger area. To date, the system includes a sewer system consisting of lines from 4 to 24 inches in diameter, a lift station to serve the area west of St. Vrain Creek and a treatment plant consisting of two lagoons and related equipment. Treated effluent is returned to St. Vrain Creek downstream of the MUD area. The treatment plant operates at a hydraulic loading of 160,000 gallons per day, as compared to its capacity of 500,000 gallons per day. The district expansion plan, called Phase II Construction, would increase treatment plant capacity to 1.5 million gallons per day. Phase II Construction would include the installation of two additional lagoons, one chlorine chamber and one blower. The timing of this expansion is uncertain at present, and will be a function of need, among other factors. In addition, the district has plans to extend a line toward SH 66 to serve the northerly portion of the MUD area. Map 4.4 shows current district and service area boundaries and proposed sewer trunk lines which would serve the entire MUD area, as dictated by growth needs. Financing and Revenue From a financial standpoint, district capital, maintenance and operations needs are accommodated - by a variety of means, including bonded indebtedness, property tax revenues, plant investment fees and service fees. Funds for major capital expansion are typically acquired by the sale of bonds. The timing and extent of bond sales are dependent upon a combination of the district's bonding capacity, demonstrated need, ability to pay, and bond rates. The district re -financed its existing debt in 1991 and cannot again do so. The district collects property taxes, levied upon Mixed Use Development Plan 18 properties within its boundaries, to primarily support debt service. In terms of property tax revenues, commercial properties have been the largest source, followed in order by residential, agricultural, oil and gas, and natural reserves. The district has other sources of revenue, including user charges and tap fees. User charges are collected on a monthly basis and depend on the category of development served. Such fees are largely used to cover operating expenses. Developers are required to pay the full cost of construction of all extensions and connections to serve their development. In cases where the district requires construction of an oversized line to serve other development, a developer may be reimbursed by the district for a portion of the cost of the oversized line. The district assumes ownership and maintenance of lines after their construction. Currently, the district charges a $3,200 plant investment fee per single family dwelling unit. The monthly service fee is $22 per single family dwelling unit. Ability to Respond to Growth The Saint Vrain Sanitation District is currently operating at 30-35 percent of treatment capacity. The district has available conveyance and treatment capacity to serve new development occurring along its present system. This assumes that the service can be provided with extensions from the existing system. Development in portions of the MUD area remote from the district's present collection system would require sewer line extensions, assuming the growth could be accommodated within existing treatment capacity. Costs for major system extensions can be on the order of $200,000 per mile, which does not include the costs of lift stations or road and waterway crossings. In terms of treatment capacity, the district estimates that the capacity increment from 500,000 to 1,500,000 gallons per day could be constructed for $250,000. The cost for each 500,000 gallon per day capacity increment beyond 1.5 million gallons per day would be from $1.5 to $3.0 million, depending upon the treatment technology chosen. 4.2.4.4 Natural Gas Natural gas service in the MUD area is currently provided by KN Energy. Their distribution system in the area extends northward along I-25 and primarily serves the Del Camino area and the development to the north and east of the I-25/SH 66 interchange. Map 4.5 shows approximate line locations, pressures, and sizes. Line capacities are a function of both pressure and size. The base rate for gas service is $3.93 per unit (100 cubic feet), although there are tiers of rates, depending upon usage, and various rate schedules for different classes of customers. Natural gas rates and service provisions are regulated by the Colorado PUC. New gas service extensions are installed by KN as requested by a developer or other party, and the installation cost is paid by the requester on a time and materials basis. Service extensions are normally handled as a part of fees paid out by developers. Mixed Use Development Plan 19 1 I b a � b xr.r 1 \ •• Mulligan i Res. Q V /I 20 V/ 118 R< I6 \ . I I r 0I 04 ►.e1 970 RIOT I 1 90 \ R 1 29 h # '''. 's Mao R<s � Fast r Re 3 ;�YLF I I1 £ I .,. w s6 1 90 RMI R07I , I.L. pa I I _ _t `\ i as 34 �'- '�- I . gg lkins Lake (Union Res.) tit / t __t _ ® °' J 2 , M6 \C•qa- !i I-/_ eA C i Mr ,. 1N _ /1 i/ = I J 1 _j ‘I at 7 1 I , 1_r— i l Legend mom — 1-25 MUD Area Boundary St. Vrain Sanitation District Boundary Service Area Boundary Sewer Lines Proposed Sewer Trunk Lines 0 1500 3000 Feet 1-25 Mixed Use Development Area Structural Plan Map 4.4 Sanitary Sewer Services November, 1996 Ability to Respond to Growth KN Energy has adequate capacity to handle the MUD area's growth in demand for the near future, and there are no expansion plans for this system at the present time. However, there are no constraints against doing so as the need arises. Major System expansions would be constructed by KN Energy, with provisions for cost recovery from developers. 4.2.4.5 Solid Waste Solid waste collection and disposal services in the MUD area are currently provided by two firms, Western Disposal Services and United Waste. Western Disposal has dumpsters in commercial areas at Del Camino and also provides residential service. United Waste has one dumpster at the M&S Garage and provides some residential service in the Frederick area. Solid waste disposal services in the Del Camino area are arranged directly between property owners/managers and the disposal firms and are generally on the basis of standard rates and service packages. Disposal is at licensed facilities, of which the closest is the Laidlaw landfill east of Erie. Other licensed landfills which may be used are near Ault and in Adams County, near Denver International Airport. Ability to Respond to Growth Solid waste collection and disposal do not provide constraints to future development of the MUD area, although more formalized arrangements for providing service, such as franchise agreements with Weld County, may be beneficial. 4.2.4.6 Influence of Utilities on Development Patterns The costs of utility service extensions can be minimized by locating development in proximity to existing utility infrastructure having available capacity, or in areas where utility extensions are the most cost-effective. To an extent, the location of development can be influenced by this factor. Map 4.6 was prepared to illustrate this and to suggest a sequence of development in the MUD area based on utility services. Mixed Use Development Plan 21 N — li N. V ► A o A ► N.'-. — F U t r MCA sea r ._ \ \ \, 1 Mulligan I Res. AMP \ 1 V o` a 30 29 I IL yobor s "-� I \ I \ Foster Res �5: �a1 I 21I26 I new - ® 30 9070 e:CS eM - I I I 9e e< a o �, f{ efJ J 31 \\ ■ =^` - Gins Lake (Union, Res) �V I eaJ• \ , __-BS-f'' (! I`,._---1i� - I // I /CS sae �� r __ _.,.{ I acs sa 1 I r Ti 7 .CJL wa/6 N l6 iI flY- Legend — - 1-25 MUD Area Boundary 2' or Smaller Intermediate Pressure Gas Line (1 PSIG to 49 PSIG) --- 3' Intermediate Pressure Gas Line (1 PSIG to 49 PSIG) — 3' High Pressure Gas Line ( >50 PSIG) 0 1500 3000 Feet 1-25 Mixed use Development Area Structural Plan Map 4.5 Natural Gas Services June, 1996 _ - y. A \ : �� + 0 O IYrom.s Lake ep \ m V .-; r fit \ 20 1‘ A,.. u O B1 r `�� ,. y. ,t). (I Mulligan Res. A- �• _ r iii I 24 i 19 He ae NOW i \ IF \ I1r HH 29 \ 4�, ( , laRes. �,pnorry-� L. P' ' \ `., � F051C! I 27 I I I !6 _ MI MCA. H P67e rwait ha ... \ Hf 1 s Lake_ (Union r(Union Res.) l i 33\ V - C3 ® i I al Wes IHr ee. — � e sada E. I w.CR W PCS 499 ) { I il L 1 — _���-+1 I c I Legend 1-25 MUD Area Boundary First Priority Sean! Priority 1-7 1bM Priority n m 0 1500 3000 Foot N I-25 Mixed Use Development Area Structural Plan Map 4.6 Priority for Development, based on Utility Services February, 1897 4.2.5 Existing Parks, Recreation and Floodplain Resources The existing resource opportunities for the MUD area are wildlife habitats, reclamation of gravel extraction areas, and regional parks. There are excellent opportunities for future resource developments such as community parks and the development of trail linkages. Existing parks, recreation, and floodplain resources are shown on Map 4.7. Wildlife The St. Vrain Creek and its associated riparian area provide habitat for a variety of species, including white tailed deer and bald eagle. Riparian areas along any of the major drainages and ditches are used by many species as travel corridors, food, cover and nesting. Gravel pits in the area are used by water fowl. Reclaimed pits can provide recreational fishing opportunities. Sand and Gravel Extraction Sand and gravel extraction areas can be reclaimed for habitat preservation, and public recreational purposes if the owner is willing. Reclaimed pits also are used as water storage reservoirs, water features in residential developments and private duck clubs. The St. Vrain Creek and Boulder Creek provide excellent sand and gravel extraction potential. These resources can be found predominantly within the 100 -year floodplain. There are approximately nine active pits within the study area, with an additional seven permitted. Weld County also owns and operates pits east of Barbour Ponds along the St. Vrain Creek which will be reclaimed as park land. Regional Parks Currently there is one regional park in operation within the MUD area. Barbour Ponds State Recreation Area is managed by the Colorado Division of Parks and Outdoor Recreation and is very highly used (200,000 visitors in 1994). It is approximately 80 acres in size and is used by tourists and local residents for fishing and camping. The management plan for the Recreation Area calls for expansion east and west as opportunities arise. One such opportunity may be to incorporate the Weld County gravel pits east of I-25 when they are reclaimed. Union Reservoir, located immediately north of the MUD area, provides additional recreational opportunities to residents within the MUD area. The City of Longmont operates Union Reservoir Park on the southwest shore. The City owns over half of the surface water rights in the lake and leases and/or owns the land for the 736 -acre park. Visitors enjoy fishing, wakeless boating, windsurfing, swimming, camping, picnicking and wildlife viewing. The northwest portion of the reservoir is reserved as a bird sanctuary. Water sports equipment may be rented at the marina area. A boat ramp and accessible fishing pier are located on the western shore. As money becomes available and as landowners are willing, the City of Longmont intends to acquire additional park lands in fee or through lease agreements. Mixed Use Development Plan 24 R \ G � s -at v� a c.] -- ` \ \ A� \i Mulligan I y Res.Q \ 1''' `,al t I9 20 1 N f t — I 24 I3 \ y I ( l 9166 \ i \VR\ ? — 29 I PB I zFtF - 1 I Foster Res. u:.tit b If I 1 21 IrRQ9IRe PS W.O.R. 930 30 C.R. •T \ •t -' t a/kips Lake (Union Res„ , 1 33 ! I / 1 it \ 1 / Stets Part a giI ea -r3. / V. 3f Ate `►aR 6N Mr I SaR. 6 -1 il 1.1.0._ /3'] `s,it)ii P ii ) I �\ '.)H . PO Legend 1-25 MUD Area Boundary p.4 Regional Parks - Existing/Proposed ___i 100 Year Floodplain Lakes/Ponds Mature Riparian Forest F ---I Primary Drainageways/Areas Irrigation Ditches/Canals Extent of Commercial Sand and Gravel Resources 0 1590 3000 Feet 1-25 Mixed Use Development Area Structural Plan Map 4.7 Parks, Recreation and Floodplain Resources November, 1996 Neighborhood and Community Parks Neighborhood and community parks are those facilities that typically serve an urbanized area and may include facilities such as swimming pools, recreation and senior centers, ballfields and playgrounds, basketball and tennis courts. There are no neighborhood or community parks within the MUD area. The closest facilities are in the City of Longmont. Limiting Site Factors There are several plans that identify areas within and adjacent to the MUD area that contain natural elements that obstruct or are hazardous to certain types of development. These sites are categorized as having Limiting Site Factors which include floodplains, critical wildlife habitat areas and topography constraints. These areas allow the lowest intensity of development in the MUD area. The Weld County Open Space Plan identifies the St. Vrain Creek corridor as a potential open space area. In its Comprehensive Master Plan (January, 1995), the City of Longmont has identified the area south of Union Reservoir and along SH 119 as its eastern buffer. According to the city's plan, this land would be preserved to maintain the city's identity and enhance the visual quality of its entrance corridor. The land would not necessarily be open for public access. A variety of techniques would be used to protect the land, including acquiring title, development rights, and easements. Boulder County has identified the St. Vrain Creek and Boulder Creek corridors within the Boulder County Comprehensive Plan as providing wildlife habitat, community buffers and trail corridors. Protection of these corridors could occur with development, as developers dedicate land for trails and/or open space, or as opportunities to acquire lands or easements are present. The Structural Land Use Plan for the MUD area also identifies land along the St. Vrain Creek corridors as containing Limiting Site Factors which would serve as a deterrent for intensive development. The Structural Land Use Plan encourages this land to be utilized by the lowest intensity of uses in the MUD area. Trails The St. Vrain Creek has been designated as a greenway in the St. Vrain Greenway Master Plan, adopted by the City of Longmont. Development includes a pedestrian and bike trail along the river through Longmont and into the MUD area. The City of Longmont has prioritized development of the trail through the city center and will implement connections to the east and west as these areas are developed. In addition, the Longmont Comprehensive Master Plan identifies the St. Vrain Creek, Dry Creek No. 2, and Spring Gulch ditch as primary greenways. Greenways are linear open space corridors that permit public access, connect residential areas to the bikeway network and with community activity areas, and accommodate trail -oriented recreation. The Spring Gulch trail would link Union Reservoir Park with trails along the St. Vrain. Mixed Use Development Plan 26 Boulder County has identified trail corridors along the St. Vrain and Dry Creek No. 2 up to the Boulder/Weld County line. As mentioned previously, reaches of these trails would be implemented as development occurs or as acquisition opportunities arise. Historic Sites Two historic sites are currently known to exist within the MUD area. One site is located on private land and is noted with a historic marker, which identifies "Fort Junction," built in 1864 by pioneers of the Boulder Creek and St. Vrain Creek Valleys. This was a sod enclosure garrisoned by home guards as protection against hostile Indians. It stood about 200 feet east of the current east frontage road paralleling I-25, and about one quarter mile north of SH 119. The second historic site located within the MUD area, is the Rinn Community Church. The Rinn Community Church has been an important community landmark in south-western Weld County since the early 1900's. Prior to the establishment of the church, Sunday School and religious services were held in a small school house at Idaho Creek. By 1900, the Sunday School had grown and services were being held not only there, but also at Dailey Stone and St. Vrain Schools. The need for a church was often discussed by the community. In 1905, land was dedicated at the junction of Weld County Roads 20 and 9 for the church's construction. Completed and paid for in 1906, the Rinn Community Methodist Church was dedicated in the summer of 1907. The building was 20'x30' with a small entryway. The church had an organ, homemade altar rail, folding chairs and a coal burning stove. The first parsonage was built in 1911 so that a full-time pastor could be invited to serve. On Christmas Eve of 1924, however, a fire consumed the church. By August of 1925 a new building was ready. In 1936 a new Colorado Highway 87 was built north from Denver and both the church and parsonage were moved. The construction of I-25 in 1958 also necessitated another relocation of the church to its present location immediately west of I-25 on the north side of Weld County Road 20. Today, the Rinn Methodist Church serves as an important historical landmark for the community and Weld County. 4.3 Market Factors and Likely Trends 4.3.1 Market Conditions The following presents a summary of the major market conditions that will influence the types of development and likely trends in the MUD area. 4.3.1.1 Location The MUD area, while rural in character, lies within 30 miles of all major employment centers and product markets on the Northern Front Range. I-25 provides convenient access to these cities and gives the MUD area a strategic location for providing retail goods and services to increasing traffic volumes along the interstate. Mixed Use Development Plan 27 The MUD area occupies a strategic location for commuters. The area, surrounded by larger cities, is approximately 5 miles from the urbanized areas of Longmont, 15 miles from Loveland, 15 miles from Boulder, 30 miles from Greeley, and 25 miles from Fort Collins to the north and Denver to the south. Residential developments in the incorporated towns around the MUD area support persons commuting to all of these cities. 4.3.1.2 Transportation As previously stated, I-25 has a major influence on the MUD area. From a market perspective, increasing traffic volumes and regional growth along the I-25 corridor will influence the market conditions in the MUD area. The following are additional factors related to transportation issues that influence market conditions. • The MUD area lies approximately 10 miles north of the proposed E-470 highway, which will link I-25 to the Denver International Airport (DIA) and enhance the convenience of access from DIA and the entire Denver metro area to Weld County and the Northern Front Range. Trucking industry experts' state that truck traffic along the MUD area portion of I-25 is not sufficient to support new trucking service facilities. These sources characterize existing truck traffic in this area as "local," with most truckers distributing products to Northern Front Range destinations. Truckers serving local routes generally require fewer services than truckers on nationwide routes; while the North American Free Trade Agreement may eventually generate increased north -south truck traffic along I-25, over the next ten years truck traffic is not likely to support significant additions to the existing service base. 4.3.1.3 Utilities This market analysis proceeds under the assumption that issues involving sanitary sewer and water infrastructure will not preclude development. Nonetheless, in reality, this issue is likely to exert significant influences on the timing, location and character of development in the MUD area. In regard to industrial, retail and lodging development, the current availability of water and sewer infrastructure gives the Del Camino area a significant advantage among the various interchanges along I-25. Conversely, the unavailability of such infrastructure may constrain development in other parts of the MUD area. 4.3.1.4 Regional Development Trends ' Forrest Baker, Transportation Research & Marketing, a consulting firm based in Idaho, referred by NATSO, National Association of Truck Stop Operators. Also Conoco representative, John Bennett. Mixed Use Development Plan 28 Residential Development New residential development has not occurred in the MUD area in recent years, but activity is increasing with projects such as the Longview and Meadow Vale PUDs. In surrounding towns such as Erie, Frederick and Mead, however, residential growth has accelerated. New housing products have occupied two price ranges: a starter home market priced from below $100,000 to $130,000, and an upscale niche, with large homes priced from $200,000 to $300,000. Some recent starter home projects in these towns have achieved average absorptions of three to four homes per month, and one project in Erie has averaged seven sales per month in its first four months. Additional residential developments have been proposed in these and other surrounding area towns. In recent years, high housing and land costs and protracted development requirements have pushed residential growth from the City of Boulder to nearby municipalities such as Lafayette, Louisville and Superior. As development has proceeded, some of these communities have responded with growth limitations of their own. The Boulder -area growth may be increasingly directed to outlying communities such as Longmont, northern Broomfield, Erie, Weld County and the MUD area. In the fall of 1995, Longmont passed an initiative to limit residential building permit issuances to 1 percent of the previous year's residential base. This measure would limit annual residential construction to 220 homes in 1996, driving significant residential development to other market areas. While the MUD area occupies a strategic location for new development, there are other develop- ment areas that will compete for residential markets. Ample land near I-25 and the proposed W- 470 and E-470 highways is available for development in the northern reaches of Broomfield, Westminster and Thorton. These areas might attract home buyers employed in the Denver/ Boulder corridor, in the DIA area or other locations in the Denver metropolitan area. Similarly, other rural Weld and Larimer County communities are likely to compete for home buyers working in Fort Collins, Greeley and Loveland. Commercial Development While an industrial company may wish to maintain its office headquarters in a high profile location in Denver or Boulder County, there is an attraction for location and cost advantages of Weld County and the MUD area. In the last two years, approximately 235,000 square feet of new industrial space has been developed at the Del Camino and I-25/SH 66 interchanges. In the last five years, new development at I-25/SH 119 interchange has included two motels and three new industrial buildings, including Hauser Chemical, Dovatron Electric, and Gerard's Bakery. All of these businesses relocated or expanded to the Del Camino Business Park from Boulder County. The Indian Peaks Industrial Park in Frederick similarly reports that many of its occupants relocated or expanded from bases in Denver. Mixed Use Development Plan 29 The MUD area presents a number of strategic advantages for attracting nonresidential development. The MUD area can attract manufacturers and distributors sending products to markets throughout the Northern Front Range. The MUD area's location provides convenient connections to corporate administrative office bases in Front Range cities. Housing, labor, utilities, and other such costs are less expensive in the MUD area than in more urban employment centers such as Boulder, Denver or Longmont. Land is less expensive in the MUD area. In the Longmont area in eastern Boulder County, nonresidential land sells in the range of $1 to $2 per square foot. This area represents the lower end of the Boulder County industrial land market; areas along Highway 36 command higher prices, and prices in the City of Boulder range from $3.50 to $5.00, a few high end parcels may sell for as much as $10.00 per square foot. In comparison, within the MUD area; the most expensive land is located at the Del Camino interchange, where retail land may sell for up to $4.00 per square foot. Industrial land along the frontage roads near Del Camino has sold for $1 to $2 per square foot, which is competitive with the Longmont area. In the industrial areas at the SH 66/I-25 interchange, recent industrial land sales have occupied the $0.50 to $1.00 per square foot price range. The vacant agricultural land along Highway 119 has generally sold at even lower rates, generally below $0.35 per square foot. Besides the advantages for commercial development, there are other factors that will influence nonresidential development in the MUD area. The City of Boulder recently passed a measure to restrict nonresidential construction. This measure will eventually limit such construction to levels that are significantly below recent rates, and is likely to drive significant volumes of nonresidential development to outlying areas. A new major factory outlet mall/mixed use development has been proposed for the northeast corner of the I-25/WCR 8 interchange in Dacono. If this development proceeds, it could become the central location for retail and tourist -related development for the southwestern part of Weld County. 4.3.2 MUD Area Growth Projections In establishing a reasonable level of expected growth in the MUD area, three scenarios were examined: conservative, moderate and aggressive projections. Of the three development scenarios, the moderate scenario relies most heavily on long-term patterns. The approach applies growth rates that were originally prepared for a twenty-five year Mixed Use Development Plan 30 period (1990 to 2015), and also makes adjustments based upon a nine-year development trend in the City of Longmont. To the extent that longer histories produce more reliable long-term indicators, this scenario may represent the most reliable forecast. In contrast, the aggressive scenario relies exclusively on short-term trends, projecting recent development trends into the future. While the recent past may sometimes provide the most accurate indication of developing new patterns, short-term trends may not endure: the 1994 development of two motels at Del Camino, for instance, does not mean that two additional motels will be developed in subsequent years. The conservative scenario involves perhaps the least reliable basis for projection. This projection relies on 1990-1993 growth patterns in the surrounding area towns - not a long-term trend. Weld County building permit records show the construction of only one new residence in 1993 and four new residences in 1994. While the figures appear to contradict recent indications regarding future residential development, this scenario should not be dismissed entirely. In weighing these three scenarios, this analysis calculates the lower range of development as an approximate average of the conservative and moderate scenarios. This calculation yields a lower range of development at roughly 60 dwelling units per year, or 600 units over ten years. Thus, this analysis identifies an overall range of 60 to 150 units has been established as a reasonable range of expected residential development, as summarized in Table 4.3. Table 4.3 Range of Likely MUD Area Residential Development Scenario Annual Growth in Dwelling Units Ten -Year Growth in Dwelling Units Basis for Projection Conservative 20 200 1990-1993 growth rates in surrounding area towns. Moderate 100 1,000 MUD Area capture of long-range growth in Longmont area and southwest Weld County. Aggressive 150 1,500 Current development trends and expected high absorption of low-cost dwelling units. Range 60-150 600-1,500 Lower range based on average of conservative and moderate scenarios; upper range based on aggressive scenario. Source: Coley/Forrest, Inc., 1995 4.3.3 Likely Trends This section identifies the type of real estate development likely to occur in the MUD area over the next ten years and projects an approximate range of the volume of development. 4.3.3.1 Residential Neighborhood Development Trends Mixed Use Development Plan 31 Likely trends in the residential development sector focus on three issues: (1) the type of residential development likely to occur in the MUD area and its surrounding communities; (2) the most likely locations in the MUD area for residential development; and (3) an approximate range of likely growth rates. Home buyers seeking housing in the MUD area are likely to occupy three distinct market niches: (1) Homes priced from below $100,000 to $150,000, appealing to first-time home buyers employed in Longmont, Boulder, Denver and other nearby employment centers. (2) Homes priced from roughly $200,000 to $300,000, appealing to higher income householders recognizing the higher housing values available outside the expensive markets in Denver, Boulder and the Denver/Boulder corridor. Residential development in this niche will occur in rural, removed areas, as most custom home buyers will seek rural, secluded settings. (3) Manufactured homes, offering the most affordable housing product in the market. State- of-the-art manufactured homes can range in price from $30,000 to $80,000. Modern manufactured home communities often feature homes situated on permanent foundations at densities of 5 or 6 units per acre. Leased manufactured home communities along the Northern Front Range are 99.7 percent occupied.' Several modular home projects have been proposed, and one such project has recently been developed within the MUD area. This type of housing may be attractive to home buyers who work in the relatively low - wage industrial occupations that have comprised significant portions of employment in both Longmont and Weld County. 4.3.3.2 Shopping Centers Shopping center development is not likely in the MUD area until it has developed a substantial housing base. Three factors would constrain such development: Residential growth patterns. Over the next ten years, likely residential development in the MUD area would consist of 600 to 1,500 homes, dispersed in separate areas, none of which will offer concentrations sufficient to support a neighborhood shopping center. While the necessary concentration of unserved "rooftops" varies, one retail expert estimates that new development is not likely to occur without a surrounding community of roughly 1,500 homes. The Urban Land Institute's Shopping Center Development Guide sets forth a rough rule of thumb requiring a minimum of 2,500 persons (approximately 1,000 homes) within 1.5 miles 2 Denver Post newspaper article, Steve Raabe reporter, 9/19/95. Quote from article: "and if you're looking for a space in northern Colorado, good luck. Out of the 8,066 spaces in the Greeley -Loveland -Longmont -Fort Collins area, you'll find only 13 vacant spaces - an amazing occupancy rate of 99.7 percent." Mr. Raabe references Ralph Mellen as his source. Ralph Melden is with Melden Realty, a firm specializing in manufacturedhousing properties. Mixed Use Development Plan 32 or a five to ten minute drive of the center. The Denver metropolitan area provides numerous examples of communities comprising of one to two thousand homes that do not contain neighborhood retail centers. These include the communities of Superior, Lone Tree, Stonegate and Roxborough Park in the southern Denver metropolitan area. Convenience to existing retail centers. New developments in the western parts of the MUD area along SH 66 and SH 119 would be conveniently situated (within fifteen minutes drive time) to Longmont area stores, thus constraining additional retail market opportunities. Available sites. Given the relatively low concentrations of residential densities that are likely to occur, new retail developments will most likely seek sites with high visibility along high traffic corridors. In the MUD area, the primary traffic corridors are located along I-25 and along SH 66 and SH 119. Retail development at the I-25 interchanges would most likely be within the convenience/highway-service niche. In the areas along SH 119 or SH 66 to the west of I-25, retail development would have to compete with a broad range of shopping centers in Longmont. 4.3.3.3 Commercial Development Trends Substantial office development is not likely to occur in the MUD area. While some industrial buildings offer office space, the MUD area's industrial image and its distance from upper income housing areas will hinder its ability to attract substantial office development. Convenience stores and service establishments, such as gas stations and fast food restaurants, will continue to represent the principal type of retail development in the MUD area. This type of development will likely occur primarily on the east side of the Del Camino interchange, and will begin after the realignment of the Del Camino interchange. Some neighborhood service establishments may also begin to appear as residential growth occurs, but development of new neighborhood shopping centers is unlikely until some time in the future. It is more likely that small strip centers at the SH 66 and Del Camino interchanges may begin to feature stores that can serve local residents as well as tourists and truckers. Examples of such stores might include drugstores, video stores, laundromats, bakeries, ice cream parlors, auto parts stores, and film developing stores. Over the next ten years it is reasonable to anticipate retail development in the MUD area to include three to five new restaurants (including fast food restaurants); two to three gas stations (with convenience stores); and five to ten miscellaneous service retail stores, with a total square footage estimated at 30,000 to 50,000. 4.3.3.4 Lodging Lodging in the MUD area includes five facilities at Del Camino. These facilities are all limited service motels with 40 to 80 rooms. Interviews with motel operators reveal the following: Mixed Use Development Plan 33 During the summer months, Del Camino motels operate at high or full occupancies. Guests include a varying mix of business travelers, vacationing families, and truckers. The recently opened Days Inn and Comfort Inn receive higher levels of tourist traffic, often hosting weekly stays for families visiting various locations along the Front Range. In contrast, the older Super 8, Budget Host/Longmont Inn, and First Inn facilities serve more truckers, who prefer their lower rates and superior proximity to truck parking. All facilities report travelers with business in Longmont or Boulder, as well as some tourists unable to find accommodations in Boulder or Longmont. Occupancies are considerably lower during the winter months. While operators were unwilling to provide occupancy estimates, they qualitatively report low occupancies, with greater reliance upon truck traffic. The Days Inn and Comfort Inn facilities opened in 1995 and at the time of this analysis, had not been open during a winter season. This has created some uncertainty regarding the strength of the lodging market during the winter season, which may not support additional lodging development in the near future. Despite these possible constraints, two market factors will likely continue to support some type of lodging development at Del Camino: (1) Projected traffic increases on I-25 traffic may strengthen demand for lodging facilities. (2) Del Camino's location at SH 119 may give it an advantage for travelers seeking direct proximity to Longmont, Boulder, or Estes Park. Where a lodging operator can assemble enough land for truck parking, and perhaps provide services such as a restaurant and bar, there may be a marketing opportunity to serve a combination of tourists and truckers.' During the next ten years it is reasonable to anticipate the development of one or two additional lodging facilities containing a total of 60 to 80 rooms on the east side of Del Camino. 4.3.3.5 Industrial Development Trends Industrial development will likely continue in the MUD area. The major attractions for industrial users include: • Access to I-25. This connection provides convenience for trucking operations and access to markets including Denver, Fort Collins, Boulder, Greeley, Longmont, and Loveland. ' While highway motels will not turn truckers away, there are specific improvements and programs a motel could activate to improve its truck business. Parking suitable for large trucks is an important amenity that could be offered. Walk -access to truck maintenance facilities could be a significant amenity for truckers with trucks needing work. Other operators utilize special incentives/discounts specifically for truckers using the motel. Mixed Use Development Plan 34 Industrial operations in the MUD area are thus conveniently linked to their product markets and to other office or industrial bases located in those cities. • Costs involving land, tax incentives, labor and power: industrial operations in the MUD area can realize considerable cost savings relative to costs incurred at more urban locations. The availability of sanitary sewers, which would extend south from SH 66 to SH 52. This stretch would be the only portion of I-25 in Weld County with this infrastructure. Industrial development in the last two years has included nearly 235,000 square feet in 10 new buildings, a rate likely to continue. In addition to the above, new favorable market factors might include the construction of highway E-470 linking the MUD area to the Denver International Airport, and the possible implementation of nonresidential growth constraints in the City of Boulder. Given this recent history and the MUD area's market advantages, it is reasonable to anticipate new industrial development to proceed at an average rate of 100,000 to 150,000 square feet per year, generating a total of 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 square feet over the next ten years. 4.4 MUD Structural Land Use Plan The MUD Plan is intended to provide a foundation to enable the county and its citizens to make appropriate decisions regarding future development. Preservation of natural resources, development of quality communities, provision for regional services and employment opportunities and maintaining fiscal integrity are the key factors driving this plan. This will ensure that development is planned in advance, rather than left to chance. The land uses delineated in the Structural Land Use Map 2.1 promote appropriate levels of facilities and services for the entire MUD area. It is important to remember that it is the coherence of community structure and the quality of the built and natural environment that will determine whether growth in the MUD area will represent a positive act of building a community, or the loss of identity and diminished character of the region. The MUD Plan shows a proposed configuration for land uses and street systems, as well as suggested sites for community facilities. The plan represents maximum "build -out" of the region which, depending on the rate of growth in the area, may take 25-50 years to achieve. As a result, the plan will need to change and respond in the future as the development patterns, resources, and needs of society change. There are a number of principles and themes upon which the plan is based. As the region develops, these principles can serve as planning goals and policies today and into the next century. The principles utilized in this plan include the overall development of the MUD area, the major Mixed Use Development Plan 35 transportation network, the linking of community nodes and the consistency of land use and zoning standards. 4.4.1 Principles for Community Structure and Growth The Structural Land Use Plan has evolved out of extensive discussion and analysis. County officials have tackled the difficult questions of how to grow, where to grow, and how growth can either benefit or distract from the area's quality of life. Addressing these questions has required balancing complex, and often conflicting issues. What has emerged is a set of principles - about the stability of the area's economic base, the structure of the community, appropriate land use classifications, and the transportation needs of the region. The Structural Land Use Plan presents the opportunity to intermix land use with established zoning standards in order to minimize the externalities of the uses. The principles of this plan are as follows: Land Use Principles A. Employment Center Development. The Structural Land Use Plan provides a unique opportunity to create a major center of new employment in the area. The creation of the employment center is located and oriented toward the network of regional and national roadways serving the area. This center needs to be carefully planned to ensure that it will take advantage of the many attributes and opportunities in the area, without detracting from the overall image and vital linkages throughout the MUD. B. Interconnection of Community. Liveable neighborhoods are critical factors in the future quality of life in the area. Interconnectivity of community nodes and activity centers will aid in the viability of the area. Alternative means of transportation and opportunities for those who seek to walk or ride their bicycles should be increased, providing safe and pleasant pathways to interconnect neighborhoods with community facilities and employment centers. New residential growth should be configured as neighborhoods, not isolated enclaves. The location of neighborhood centers in residentially designated areas is intended to provide community services within walkable destinations for the residents within the MUD area. C. Consistent Land Use Standards. The Structural Land Use Plan outlines standards which are intended to shape and enhance communities within the MUD area. These standards also are intended to support and implement the land use and development policies in the Weld County Comprehensive Plan, Zoning and Subdivision Ordinances, and the Planned Unit Development Ordinance. In all cases, these Ordinances should be consulted for clarification of specific requirements. D. Appropriate Zoning Mixture. The Structural Land Use Plan provides a mixture of conceptual land use categories throughout the MUD area. These categories are grouped by the intensity of the land use, with the majority of the high intensity uses being clustered within the vicinity of I-25 and SH 119. In contrast, lands with limiting site factors such as floodplain and wildlife habitat, correlate with the lowest intensity land uses. Mixed Use Development Plan 36 E. Planned Transportation Network. The major roadway corridors, including I-25, SH 119, SH 66, and WCR 1, are the primary roadway structures for the MUD area. They play an important role in the function and image not only of the MUD area, but for Weld County, as well. For this reason, special attention must be given to access controls and design treatment, to ensure that these roadways will function well over time, and that visual quality of the major highway corridors will be improved and enhanced. The following Table 4.4 provides approximate acreage for each of the land uses and maximum density statistics that could occur at full build -out of the MUD area. Table 4.4 Land Use Plan Distribution Land Use/ Intensity Acres % Total Area Remarks Employment Center- High Intensity 2,700 22% 27 million sq. ft. of floor space Regional Commercial- Medium Intensity 200 2% 2 million sq. ft of floor space Neighborhood Center- Low Intensity 80 1% 800,000 sq. ft. of floor space Residential- Mixed Intensity 4,500 37% maximum population: 30,000 people, and approximately 13,500 dwelling units. Limiting Site Factors- Lowest Intensity 4,630 38% All areas delineated are within the 100 year floodplain or have elements that obstruct or are hazardous to certain types of development. Total 12,110 100% Source: Balloffet and Associates, Inc. Assumptions: Residential densities were calculated using an average of 4 dwelling units per acre for all development throughout the MUD area. It was assumed that 25 percent of the gross land area in residential areas would account for roadways, neighborhood parks, and various residential amenities. • Employment Center calculations are based on an average of 15,000 square feet of floor area per acre. • Regional Commercial calculations are based on an average of 10,000 square feet of floor area per acre. Mixed Use Development Plan 37 4.4.2 Transportation As the MUD area develops, it is critical that a transportation network be sized to accommodate both short-term demand and future build -out. The process of developing the network includes trip generation, distribution/assignment and transportation sizing for roadways, transit, bicycling, pedestrians and transportation demand management (TDM). TDM programs encourage alternatives to the single occupant vehicle such as carpooling and transit, as well as physical improvements such as park -n -ride. To size the circulation system, it is necessary to estimate the traffic that will be generated and determine the transportation relationships of linkages between the various land uses within the MUD area. Projected trip generation resulting from the build -out of the proposed I-25 MUD Plan is presented in Table 4.5. The trip generation rates are based on the most recent edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual. It should be noted that these reflect the average of the rates for uses that could be expected. As an example, single family residential areas typically experience 10 trip ends per dwelling unit, whereas condominiums and townhouses tend to be smaller, and generate 8 trip ends per dwelling unit. The 9.55 trip ends per dwelling unit used here reflect a weighted average between the single family and multi -family mix that may be anticipated. Similarly, the commercial retail and employment categories have been averaged. Based on the ITE trip generation manual, trip generation rates for commercial developments decrease as the center's size increases. The average trip generation rates for commercial centers reflect a midpoint in the size -versus -trip -generation curve. Employment centers cover a wide range of uses, from office parks (which generate 10 to 12 trip ends per 1,000 square feet) down to industrial uses at two trip ends or less per day. The average of five trip ends per day reflects a midpoint of generation to permit flexibility in future planning, yet reasonably, anticipate the trip generation which may result from project build -out. It should be noted that the trip generation rates reflect one end of the trip. If a person travels between one trip end at a home to a second trip end at a school, this reflects one trip, with both trips internal to the I-25 MUD Area. Mixed Use Development Plan 38 Table 4.5 MUD Area Plan Trip Generation Trip Generation Rates Use Units ADT AM IN AM OUT PM IN PM OUT Residential DU's 9.55 0.19 0.55 0.66 0.35 Commercial Total sq. ft. 40.00 0.40 0.40 1.80 1.80 Emp. Center Total sq. ft. 5.00 0.80 0.15 0.20 i 0.80 Residential Emp. Center Region. Comm. Neigh. Com. ADT AM IN AM OUT PM IN PM OUT DU's 1,000 sq. ft. 1,000 sq. ft. 1,000 sq. ft. Total 13,500 27,000 2,000 800 375,000 25,300 12,600 19,300 31,300 Total Residential 130,000 2,600 7,400 8,900 4,700 Total Employment 135,000 21,600 4,100 5,400 21,600 Total Commercial 110,000 1,100 1,100 5,000 5,000 Source: Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual The resulting daily trip distributions are presented in Figure 4.2, which shows the relationship of trips by purpose and the proportion of internal and external travel. As can be seen in Figure 4.2, build -out of the MUD area residential developments will yield approximately 130,000 daily trips. These trips are further stratified by trip type, such as shopping, work, schools/parks, social, and other. Based on the non-residential land uses proposed,•it is estimated that fifty percent of the residential trips will remain internal to the MUD area and fifty percent will exit the area. It is similarly estimated that approximately 50 percent of the employment trips will remain internal and fifty percent will travel externally to the study area. The internal employment area will be trips to/from the residential developments within the study area, other employment areas, and the commercial centers. The commercial trip distribution patterns will be to/from the residential and employment areas. In addition, there will be a portion of the trips that will be pass -by trips. Pass -by trips are those that are already on the street systems within the study area, and because of the intervening opportunity of the commercial centers, will be attracted into them. These pass -by trips will not be new trips to the study area, but will need to be accounted for when developing access plans for the commercial centers. Mixed Use Development Plan 39 Figure 4.2 External Trip Distribution Mixed Use Development Plan 40 Figure 4.3 Daily Trip Distribution by Purpose N S E W SW 8% 25% 2% 5% 10% External 50% 0 to I WI EXTERNAL TRIPS INTERNAL TRIPS Commercial 110,000 External 40% N S E W SW 3% 10% 1% 2% 4% Residential 130,000 Employment 135,000 o; CO. External 50% N S E W SWi 8% 28% 3% 5% 11% Local Business 25% Mixed Use Development Plan 41 Total new trips anticipated will be 275,000, of which 100,000 will remain internal to the MUD area and 175,000 will travel externally. Based on the regional distribution of residential and non- residential developments, it is estimated that fifty percent (50%) will travel to/from the Denver area, fifteen percent (15%) to/from the north on I-25, ten percent: (10%) to Longmont, twenty percent to/from the Boulder area, and the remaining five percent (5%) to/from the east. This regional distribution is presented in Figure 4.3. 4.4.2.1 Proposed Circulation System Transportation planning traditionally examines the relatively short-term twenty to twenty-five year build -out. Based on market potential, the build -out of the MUD area will occur significantly later than the traditional planning horizon. Without a long-term vision of how an area develops, the circulation system can be undersized and congestion will result. Therefore, the proposed circulation system was developed to accommodate build -out of the MUD area land use plan, yet be flexible enough to respond to short-term market demands. Critical to this long- term vision is to preserve the right-of-way to accommodate the future circulation system in the event that the improvements are necessary. Arterial Circulation System The foundation of the circulation system within the MUD area will be SH 119. Although this highway will be significantly improved with the proposed revisions to the I-25/SH 119 interchange, this interchange could possibly fail with build -out of the MUD area. Therefore, it is recommended that land be preserved at WCR 20 and I-25 to accommodate a future interchange with I-25. In emerging development areas along highways, development traditionally occurs along the frontage road system. These frontage road systems typically fail because of the short distances between the frontage road and the freeway. Problems already exist at frontage road intersections on SH 119 east of I-25. With the widening of I-25 to the east and the proposed I-25/SH 119 interchange improvements, the eastern frontage road will be severely constrained to a maximum of two lanes which will ultimately experience traffic that will exceed its capacity. The proposed ultimate frontage road system will be to shift the eastern frontage road approximately one-half mile to the east and the western frontage road approximately one-third mile to the west. The right- of-way will be preserved to accommodate a higher -capacity four -lane facility with left turn lanes. These new facilities will become entries to employment areas. Portions of the current frontage road system can be retained as access to existing and future development, however, these facilities would be looped back to the north/south employment center roads. Turner Boulevard and the west I-25 frontage road presently terminate just south of SH 119. To improve local traffic circulation, the existing western frontage road should be extended to the south to tie into the future employment area local circulation network. Turner Boulevard should be extended south into the future employment area and connect to the proposed north/south four - lane arterial that will be located to the west. Mixed Use Development Plan 42 Because access to the arterial street system significantly affects capacity, it is proposed that private property access be restricted as follows: Major Arterials (SH 119): Signalized intersections as per the MUD Plan Transportation Network. Access to private development shall be restricted per the CDOT Highway Access Code. Arterial: Intersections with other streets at one-fourth mile or greater. Private access shall comply with the CDOT Highway Access Code for state facilities and be discouraged on non - state facilities. • Secondary: Intersections with other streets at one -eighth mile or greater. Private access shall be discouraged. • Collector: Access is permitted to local streets and private legal parcels. Access shall be encouraged at 300 feet or greater. • Local: Private access is encouraged to legal parcels. 4.4.2.2 Public Transit The MUD area is not currently served by public transit and is not within the Denver Regional Transportation District (RTD). Through negotiations, it may be possible to obtain RTD buses to pick up and drop off passengers at the Park -n -Ride and transit centers within the MUD area, similar to Douglas County's negotiations to have RTD provide service to Highlands Ranch. It is critical, however, to plan for future transit opportunities in context with urban development. The strategic placement of future transit and park -n -ride locations will be the foundation for both regional and local transit service. Three transit and park -n -ride locations have been identified in the plan to provide for future transit service. The first is located at the I-25/SH 66 interchange. The second is along SH 119 east of I-25. The third site is proposed along SH 119, east of WCR 5. The objective is to capture traffic to/from Longmont to avoid additional traffic impacts to the MUD area. 4.4.3 Community Services Facilities are incorporated into the plan for the MUD area to provide an adequate level of community service. This section includes information regarding schools, fire protection, law enforcement, and other community services as they relate to the land use plan. Projected needs are identified and appropriate locations for service facilities are discussed. Mixed Use Development Plan 43 4.4.3.1 Schools School Projections Based on school trends, student demand potential for the MUD area is indicated in the following tables. Table 4.6 identifies the criteria from which school projections are made, and Table 4.7 shows what the needs for schools will be after 5 years, after 10 years, and at total build -out of the development area. These calculations are based on the assumption that an average of 120 dwelling units will be built per year. Table 4.6 St. Vrain School Need Projection Factors Grade Level Students per Dwelling Unit Average Students per School Acreage needed per school K-5 0.35 525 10 6-8 0.14 750 25 9-12 0.17 1200 40 Source: Scott Trillon, St. Vrain School District Planner, 9/95 Table 4.7 MUD Area School Need Projections Grade 5 Year Growth: 600 DU 10 Year Growth: 1200 DU Full Build Out: 13,000 DU Students Schools Acres Students Schools Acres Students Schools Acres K-5 210 0.4 4 420 0.8 8 4550 8.6 86 6-8 134 0.18 4.5 168 0.22 5.5 1820 2.42 60.5 9-12 102 0.08 3.2 204 0.17 6.8 2210 1.84 73.6 Total 446 0.66 11.7 792 1.19 20.3 8580 12.86 220.1 DU: Dwelling Units Source: Balloffet & Associates, Inc., 1995 Table 4.7 above demonstrates that an additional elementary school will be required sometime between the 5 and 10 year build -out horizon when the total number of dwelling units reaches approximately 1,200 in the MUD area. Middle and high school students will continue to attend the existing schools in the St. Vrain District during this time. If the MUD area is built out to maximum potential outlined in this plan, an additional nine elementary schools, two middle schools and two high schools will be required. To plan for this, approximately one acre of land should be designated for schools for every 20 acres of residential development in the MUD area. Siting criteria In general, schools should be situated within a 1 to 1.5 mile radius of neighborhood centers. Elementary schools should be placed adjacent to neighborhood parks that are central to neighborhoods, away from busy streets and intersections for easy and safe access by students. Mixed Use Development Plan 44 Middle and senior high schools are placed along collector roadways, but remain within the 1-2 mile radius of the neighborhood centers. In all cases, schools should be easily accessed by alternative transportation systems such as bike/pedestrian trails and public transport systems, to reduce dependency on cars in the MUD area. 4.4.3.2 Fire Protection The Mountain View Fire Protection District is adequately staffed to meet the needs of the MUD area at this time. In the future, 11 to 12 additional firefighters will be required to meet needs at the 10 -year growth horizon, and 100 to 110 additional firefighters will be required at full build - out of the MUD area, if current standards of 4.29 firefighters per 1000 persons stay the same. The current standard could increase due to the significant amount of Employment Center development planned for the area. 4.4.3.3 Law Enforcement Police protection coverage for growth in the MUD area will result in increased staff in at the administration office located in Greeley, increased need for incarceration facilities (also located in Greeley) increased need for patrol vehicles and officers and an adequate transportation system. Satellite facilities may be required for law enforcement in the future. The siting for this facility will depend on growth patterns and available funding. Due to the administrative function of this facility, its placement should not affect response times or level of service of law enforcement officers. It is for this reason siting of law enforcement facilities is not shown on the Structural Land Use Map 2.1. 4.4.4 Parks, Trails, and Floodplain A combination of parks, trails, and floodplain areas is integrated into the MUD land use plan. These features provide a balanced system of preserved natural environments and opportunities for recreation and alternative transportation. 4.4.4.1 Parks Currently there is a regional park, Barbour Ponds State Park, located north of SH 119 just west of I-25. This is a highly used facility, providing camping, picnicking, nature observation and fishing opportunities for over 200,000 visitors per year. A proposed extension of this park is indicated on the other side of I-25 to the east, where the county currently is operating sand and gravel extraction. Development at this site is envisioned to be of the same character as at the Barbour Ponds site, and has been identified as a possible expansion area by Colorado State Parks. Mixed Use Development Plan 45 A community park is conceptually located near the center of the MUD area. Community parks typically provide more intensively developed facilities than regional parks and are intended to serve the recreational needs of residents within the entire MUD area. Facilities may include ballfields, soccer fields, tennis courts, swimming pools, community gardens, amphitheaters, group and individual picnic areas and open play areas. A more detailed description of community parks is included in the next chapter. Based on the maximum build -out population of 30,000 and a level of service of 4 acres per 1000 persons, this park should be approximately 120 acres in size. However, it is very possible that the area will not develop to its maximum density. If the area develops in a relatively low density manner, the demand for community parkland would be reduced. Therefore, it is recommended that the entire 120 acres of community parkland be acquired, but development should occur in phases to allow for flexibility of selling unneeded land or using it for other community purposes in the future. Neighborhood parks are intended to serve the recreational and social needs of residents who are within approximately '/2 mile (walking distance) of the park. They contain leisure time and recreational facilities that generally do not attract large numbers of users from outside the neighborhood, such as plazas for neighborhood events, open play areas, multi -purpose practice fields for soccer and baseball, tennis and basketball courts, picnic shelters and playgrounds. To accommodate a multi -purpose play field and other more passive uses, a neighborhood park is ideally 5 to 8 acres in size. Neighborhood parks are based on maximum build -out densities. As with community parks, the range of potential needs for neighborhood parks will vary with actual population and location of that population within the MUD area. Based on the maximum build -out and a level of service of two acres per 1000 population, the total neighborhood parkland need would be 60 acres, or seven to ten parks. Nine parks are shown on the plan. A lower density development scenario would reduce the total acreage and number of parks. Because of this potential range, it is recommended that the need for neighborhood parks be tracked with development proposals, and park sites acquired when approximately one-half of the need for a park is demonstrated within a one-half or three-quarter mile radius (e.g. 1,200-1,500 people). 4.4.4.2 Trails A regional trail system is shown that follows St. Vrain Creek, the canal between Union Reservoir and St. Vrain Creek, the railroad right-of-way south of the creek and along Boulder Creek. These trails are logical extensions of the trails planned by adjacent communities and Boulder County, and are important regional and local resources. Additional trails are shown throughout the MUD area to provide connections between residential areas and other attractions. 4.4.4.3 Floodplain The majority of the land associated with Limiting Site Factors is located along St. Vrain, Boulder and Idaho Creeks. Its outermost limits is defined by the FEMA 100 -year floodplain. Although Mixed Use Development Plan 46 some development has been approved by the county within the floodplain and the lowest intensity development may also occur in these areas in the future, land directly along the creeks and drainages within the MUD area should be preserved as open space. Any development that is proposed within the floodplain should demonstrate that it is designed to be above the 100 -year floodplain elevation and that the development has no significant upstream or downstream effects on the floodplain. Due to the cumulative impact of small development which may not be detectable on a case by case basis, the county should prepare a regional study to further define the apparent 100 -year floodplain and to establish a baseline for evaluating the effect of proposed development. All development within the 100 -year floodplain must adhere to the regulations and restrictions in the Flood Hazard Overlay District, as outlined in the Weld County Zoning Ordinance, as amended. The land around Foster Reservoir designated as having Limiting Site Factors, includes the area that is inundated at high water, wetlands and wildlife habitat that should be preserved, and a narrow area between the reservoir and I-25 that affords high quality views to the mountains and is strategically placed to provide a break in development along the 1-25 corridor. The area is not currently served with utilities and is not a good location for medium or high density residential development due to its proximity to the interstate. The land along the irrigation canals and ditches is important to provide corridors for wildlife movement between major habitat areas. The rights -of -ways associated with canals are rarely adequate to provide cover and forage for wildlife. After the crops that are currently in production adjacent to the canals are gone and development has taken its place, it will be important to provide an adequate buffer for wildlife. Canals and ditches also provide linear corridors for trails and opportunities for defining edges of neighborhoods. 4.4.5 Development Cost Considerations Over time, development of the MUD area will require a large outlay of public expenditures to provide for the basic infrastructure and community services required to meet the needs of the residents, visitors, and employers located within the region. As a part of this planning process, the costs of providing the needed services for build -out of the MUD area have been estimated. When reviewing this cost information, it should be kept in mind that the development of this area is expected to occur over 25 to 50 years; thus, construction of major infrastructure elements is likely to occur in increments over time to minimize capital investment risk. The cost estimates are of necessity in 1995 dollars, and may assume a higher degree of economies of scale than is likely to occur with development over time. 4.4.5.1 Utility Infrastructure This section provides an assessment of utility infrastructure costs associated with the development of the MUD area and the manner in which they may affect development patterns. Of the utility Mixed Use Development Plan 47 systems considered in this study, water supply and sanitary sewer will most directly affect development. Other types of utilities, electric power, natural gas and solid waste, are more market -driven. Specifically, electric power and natural gas are less supply or capacity limited, and their rate structures and capacity or service expansion charges are well -established and regulated. Also, costs are absorbed by developers/property owners as the need for service emerges. Solid waste collection services are not a major factor limiting development, from either a cost or an availability standpoint. In other words, there is the assurance that solid waste collection services will be available when needed, and the issues surrounding this service are more associated with service standards and rate and service uniformity. The regulation of solid waste disposal is already well established, by virtue of existing federal, state and county requirements. Growth Scenario For purposes of the development of utility systems to support projected residential and comm- ercial/industrial/retail growth, it is necessary to postulate a planning framework. For this analysis of utility infrastructure needs and costs, the ultimate development was used. There is a time frame associated with this scenario. Utility Costs The overall assumptions forming the basis upon which utility costs were analyzed in this study include: • The use of historical development trends and present conditions, as they form the basis for assessing the ability of existing utility systems and providers to support development. The assumption that development will occur in an efficient manner, from the standpoint of utility economics, to include utilizing available, relatively low-cost capacity before exercising more costly options. • The assumption that the sequence and timing of development are also relatively predictable, given the uncertainties associated with such projections. • The assumption that the costs of service extensions are relatively predictable, at least for the near term. The assumption that sewage conveyance and treatment capacity are relatively unconstrained in the long term and are not subject to influences which would significantly affect availability and prices (e.g., service area capture). The assumption that water supply is relatively unconstrained and not subject to regional competition which would significantly affect availability and prices. This assumption is increasingly less valid as existing capacity is committed and the need for major water supply system expansions emerges. As there is not a specific time frame associated with this growth scenario, costs and related factors were prepared on a present-day basis. Mixed Use Development Plan 48 The following is a summary of present-day (non -escalated) water supply and wastewater costs associated with ultimate development. Wastewater Conveyance and Treatment: Wastewater Treatment: $10,750,000 Collection System Extension: $15.414.000 Total Costs: $26,164,000 It should be noted that these water supply and development costs represent a conceptual estimate of service extension costs to be borne by developers/property owners as a part of the development process in the MUD area; they are not costs to be borne by Weld County or its taxpayers. They also do not reflect water supply system expansion costs which will likely have to be absorbed, in part, by developers under cost -sharing arrangements with the water districts. These costs expressed on a present-day basis, are associated with ultimate development. Supply Costs: Development Costs: Total Costs: $ 12,002,000 $111,000.000 $123,002,000 Anticipated growth in the demand for wastewater collection and treatment capability can be accommodated by fee structures and cost recovery mechanisms which are currently in place. This is also the case for water supply service extensions which can be accommodated without major capital outlay. Development that requires or significantly contributes to the need for water system expansions will likely be asked to contribute to financing the capital costs of such expansions; this would be negotiated at the time the developments are approved. 4.4.5.2. Schools The St. Vrain School District anticipates the need for 9 elementary schools, 2 middle schools and 1 high school within the MUD area at build -out. Capital costs in 1995 dollars for these schools would total $87,000,000. Capital costs for individual, fully -equipped schools (excluding land) are as follows: one elementary school $4,500,000 one middle school $13,500,000 one high school $19,500,000 As discussed in previous sections, the growth projections at build -out prepared as a part of this planning effort indicate the need for two high schools. Mixed Use Development Plan 49 4.4.5.3 Law Enforcement Tables 4.8 and 4.9 illustrate the projected needs, yearly costs, and capital improvements costs to maintain the present level of service and at the maximum build -out potential of the MUD. Table 4.8 MUD Area: 10 -Year Growth Service Units Total Unit Cost Total (Cost for Operations: Expenses Staff 1.2 3 $48,000/yr $144,000 Overheads 21.5% of total Operation Budget $54,135 Civil Process (papers) 49.2 133 $6.50/paper $865 Incarceration (inmates) 2.2 6 $45/day (included in operations) Total Operations 365 calls 986 $202 $199,000 Code Enforcement 0.61 calls 2 $830/call $1,660 Animal Control 9.2 calls 25 $62.00/call $1,550 Total Cost $202,210/yr Source: Weld County Local Emergency Operation Plan (Draft) 8/22/95 Assumptions: • Projected population after 10 years is 2700 people • There will be no capital improvements needed at the 10 -year growth horizon, assuming that the proposed Weld County Jail is constructed as planned and approved. Mixed Use Development Plan 50 Table 4.9 Total Build -out of MUD Area Service Units/ 1000 Total Units Unit Cost Total Cost for MUD Area Operations: Expenses Capital Improv. Staff 1.2 30 $48,000/yr $1,440,000 $300,000 (admin. bldg.) Overheads 21.5% of Total Operations Budget $396,298 Civil Process (papers) 49.2 1,230 $6.50/paper $7,995 Incarceration (inmates) 2.2 55 $45/day (included in operations) $1,072,500 (jail building) Total Operations 365 calls 9,125 $202 $1,843,250 Code Enforcement 0.61 calls 16 $830/call $12,657.50 Animal Control 9.2 calls 230 $62.00/call $14,260 Total Cost $3,326,583/yr $1,372,500 Source: Weld County Local Emergency Operation Plan (Draft) 8/22/95 Assumptions: The maximum population potential for the MUD area at build -out is 25-30 thousand people. The calculations listed above are based on 25 thousand people, and costs are calculated using present day costs. This is simply a model to be used in a comparison between projected costs and potential revenues. Capital improvement costs include jail expansion and a new satellite office facility. Costs for office facilities are calculated by multiplying the required staff x 200 square feet per person x $100 per square foot. The Weld County Local Emergency Operation Plan indicates a desire to house approximately half of the required personnel for the MUD area in close proximity, while remaining staff will be housed in the Greeley facility. Jail expansion capital costs are calculated by multiplying the total number of inmates by $19,500 per bed. As a means of estimating the impact on development if costs for law enforcement facilities were to be totally funded by new development, an estimate of law enforcement costs was prepared for various types of development (Table 4.10). Costs were estimated based upon average population figures for each type of use. The total law enforcement costs are then divided by the total esti- mated population of the planning area to derive a per -capita cost. Based upon a projected total population for the study area of 115,000 persons, the preliminary cost per person is $26. Costs per dwelling unit or square foot of retail, office, or industrial uses are based upon their estimated population times the cost per person. These costs are shown in Table 4.10. Mixed Use Development Plan 51 Table 4.10 Law Enforcement Capital Costs Estimates Land Use Population Cost per Unit Residential 2.6 per dwelling $31 per dwelling Retail Commercial 7.5 per 1,000 s.f. $90 per 1,000 s.f. Employment 5 per 1,000 s.f. $60 per 1,000 s.f. Source: Balloffet and Associates, Inc. 4.4.6.4 Fire Protection Capital improvements will be required sometime after the 10 -year horizon to provide at least one additional fire station. This will depend on where development occurs and the resulting response times. General projections of traffic patterns and volumes, along with land use density considerations, should serve as a basis for the location of future fire station facilities. 4.4.6.5 Transportation Street improvements comprise the largest category of funds to serve the MUD area. Weld County's general fund revenue sources will be inadequate to cover the infrastructure costs associated with roads required to meet the needs of new development. As a part of this planning effort, the costs to meet the needs of the MUD area at build -out were estimated at $50 to $80 million dollars. The low end of this range is based on the use of rural street sections for collectors and four -lane undivided arterials without curb, landscaping, or street lighting. The higher end of the cost estimate assumes that all streets have curbs, landscaping, and street lights. These costs were based on applying a unit cost to construct one linear foot of a given roadway type times the total length of roadways required to construct the entire I-25 MUD transportation network. These costs also include signals and bridges. A low and high estimate by facility type is presented in Table 4.11. The I-25/SH 119 interchange improvements currently funded by CDOT and the I-25 widening improvements from 511 7 to SH 66 are not included. It should be noted that SH 119 and SH 66 within the MUD area have been separated from non-CDOT facilities. Because streets comprise the largest costs of infrastructure improvements, a critical issue becomes how to fund these improvements. Some jurisdictions have required developers to construct their half section of roadway at the time of development. The problems that have arisen from this approach are that 1) capacity improvement from new growth traffic is often required at locations where developments have not yet occurred nor are they planned for development in the immediate future, and 2) costs for signals, bridges, and segments of roadways not adjacent to future Mixed Use Development Plan 52 developments (i.e. adjacent to floodplains, government lands, or existing development) are not funded and either become a burden to the local jurisdiction or are not constructed. One approach to funding the future circulation in a timely manner is to have two funding programs. The first program (direct costs) would require developers to build 2 lanes of pavement, curb, gutter, sidewalk, streetlights, and landscaping for adjacent 2, 4 and 6 -lane roads as designated in the MUD area plan standards. The second program (indirect costs),would be to adopt impact fees to finance the interior lanes of four and six -lane highways, medians, signals, major bridge and drainage improvements, and segments of roadways adjacent to non -developable lands that would be attributable to new growth. The resulting preliminary low and high cost estimates for direct and indirect costs per funding category for the MUD area are based on separation of linear cost. The results are presented in Table 4.11. Table 4.11 Preliminary Cost Estimates for Transportation Network Facility Low Cost Estimate (millions) High Cost Estimate (millions) SH 119 Widening $8.1 $9.4 SH 66 Reconstruction & Widening $3.7 $4.5 4 Lane Divided - Other $8.8 $10.9 4 Lane Undivided - Other $21.5 $28.7 2 Lane Collector $8.2 $27.5 Totals $50.3 $81.0 Funding Category Direct Costs - Adjacent Development Cost $30 $56 Indirect Costs - New Growth Required $20 $25 Source: Balloffet and Associates, Inc. 1996 As a means of estimating the "indirect cost" of roadways attributable to new development growth, road costs were estimated based on the number of daily vehicle trips generated. Based on a projected 275,000 additional daily trips for the study area, the estimated indirect cost per trip for the low and high estimate of $20-$25 million would be between $73 and $90 per daily trip generated. The "indirect cost" per dwelling unit and square foot of retail, office or industrial uses are based on their daily trip generation rates times the estimated cost per trip. These costs areshown in Table 4.12. Mixed Use Development Plan 53 Table 4.12 Indirect Street Costs Land Use Daily Trips Per Unit Low Cost Per Unit $20 Million High Cost Per Unit $25 Million Low Density Residential 9.6 per DU $700 per DU $865 per DU Medium Density Residential 6.5 per DU $475 per DU $585 per DU High Density Residential 5.9 per DU $430 per DU $530 per DU Commercial Retail 39 per 1,000 SF $2.85 per SF $3.50 per SF Office 9.5 per 1,000 SF $ .70 per SF $0.85 per SF Industrial 3.3 per 1,000 SF $ .24 per SF $0.30 per SF Source: Balloffet and Associates, Inc. 1996 DU = Dwelling Unit SF = Square Foot It should be noted that because of the high daily trip generation rates for retail, the correspondingly high indirect unit costs, and the concern that retail development may not locate within a given area if higher fees are imposed, some jurisdictions have elected to subsidize the commercial retail indirect costs. Sales tax from the commercial retail uses could provide a revenue stream into the community to pay for the improvements. 4.4.6.6 Parks, Trails, and Limiting Site Factors Development and maintenance of the parks, trails and sites with limiting factors must be considered to comprehensively assess the cost of development in the MUD area. Table 4.13 is a summary of the anticipated costs associated with the parkland required for a maximum build -out population of 30,000. Many of the sites with limiting factors and trails corridors could cost little or nothing because they may be dedicated as part of a common open space requirement, or public access achieved through purchase of easements or other means. Floodplain property also is typically less expensive to purchase because its development potential is greatly restricted. Parkland may also be dedicated; however, historically this has resulted in less than desirable park sites or properties that are too small. Instead, most communities have opted for an impact fee system that gives them more flexibility in selecting appropriate park sites. Mixed Use Development Plan 54 Table 4.13 Parks, Trails and Sites with Limiting Factors Anticipated Costs Acquisition and Construction Costs Parks Neighborhood Parks (Acquisition and construction of 60 acres at $70,000 per acre) Community Parks (Acquisition and construction of 120 acres at $100,000 per acre) $ 4,200,000 $12,000,000 Trails (25 miles of construction only at $150,000 per mile) $ 3,750,000 Limiting Site Factors (Canals, ditches and 1/2 of floodplains dedicated with developments. All of sites with limiting factors around Foster Res. and Union Res. purchased. Total approximately 2,100 acres purchased at avg. $2,800 per acre) $ 6,300,000 Total Acquisition and Construction Costs $24,450,000 Annual Operations and Maintenance Costs Parks 180 acres developed parkland at $3,500 per acre $ 630,000 Trails 25 miles at $8,000 / mile $ 200,000 Limiting Site Factors 4,500 acres at $25 per acre $ 112,500 Total Annual Operations and Maintenance Costs $ 992,500 Source: EDAW Inc., 1996 Costs are approximate and are based on historical costs experienced by the Cities of Fort Collins and Greeley and Larimer County in 1994 and 1995. Mixed Use Development Plan 55 Hello