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Home My WebLink About20012636.tiff 2001 Weld County PROPERTY ASSESSMENT STUDY Prepared for Colorado Legislative Council Thos. Y. Pickett & Company, Inc. Denver, Colorado gcrrse)J/ ages/ - �; , s j_��_7 2001-2636 September 15, 2001 Mr. Charles S. Brown Director of Research Colorado Legislative Council State Capitol Building - Room 029 Denver, Colorado 80203 Dear Mr. Brown, Thos. Y. Pickett & Co. has completed the 2001 Property Assessment Study in Weld County. This Final Report documents the results and associated recommendations of the analysis and procedural verifications. The statistical analysis has been conducted in complete accordance with the following procedures: the Request for Credentials and Proposals to Conduct a Colorado Property Assessment Study, dated July 21, 2000; Contract Encumbrance Number 01000000005, dated December 1, 2000; and the current Standards on Ratio Studies approved and published by the International Association of Assessing Officers in July 1999. Respectfully submitted, THOS. Y. PICKETT & CO. INC. ,e7-2/ intact John Zimmerman 2001 Property Assessment Study Weld County This Final Report presents the results of Thos. Y. Pickett & Company, Inc. 's comparison study of as- sessed values to qualified sales, the associated pro- cedural verifications, and the required analysis on the other specified classes and/or subdasses of property in Weld County, Colorado. This study was conducted pursuant to Colorado Revised Statutes Sections 39-1-104, governing valuation for assess- ment Table of Contents INTRODUCTION 1 SUMMARY RESULTS OF SOLD PARCEL ANALYSIS 2 Summary Results of Sold Parcel Analysis 3 Summary Results Of Sold Parcels by Economic Area 3 AGRICULTURAL LAND STUDY 4 AGRICULTURAL OUTBUILDING AND RESIDENCE STUDY 5 PERSONAL PROPERTY STUDY 5 Procedural Verification 6 Statistical and Procedural Analysis Results 6 SALES VERIFICATION 7 ECONOMIC AREA EVALUATION 7 SUBDIVISION DISCOUNTING 7 NATURAL RESOURCE STUDY 8 Earth or Stone Procedures 8 Producing Gas Procedures 8 Producing Oil Procedures 9 APPENDICES 11 2001 Property Assessment Study Weld County Introduction Thos. Y. Pickett & Company, Inc., has concluded the Property As- sessment Study for each of the 63 counties within the State of Colo- rado. The study was conducted pursuant to provisions of the Consti- tution of Colorado and the Colorado Revised Statutes [CRS] Sections 39-1-104, governing valuation for assessment. The fundamental ob- jective of the 2001 study was to ascertain that each county assessor complied with Colorado's mandated guidelines in valuing all applica- ble classes of property. By addressing the research through a ratio study and the associ- ated statistical analysis, Thos. Y. Pickett & Company, Inc., compared assessed values to qualified sales transactions within Weld County. When qualified sales did not meet sample size requirements, ap- praisal ratios were calculated. The prevailing level of ratio (or global level of assessment), measured by its median value, and the variability of the ratio, measured by the coefficient of dispersion (COD), were then compared to the benchmarks established by the Colorado State Board of Equalization. When individual parcel ratios for a particular property class are arrayed by numerical value, the value of the ratio that lies in the middle of the array is defined as the median ratio, which is a meas- ure of central tendency (half of the ratios are greater than the me- dian ratio and half are less). A parcel appraised at its market value will have a ratio value of 1.00. The coefficient of dispersion is the 2001 Weld County 1 measure of an individual parcel ratio deviation from the median. The deviation indicates how uniformly the assessor values parcels. The Colorado State Board of Equalization (SBOE) has established the following median standards that all county assessors are re- quired to achieve: PROPERTY CLASS MEDIAN COD Vacant Land 0.95 to 1.05 20.99 Residential 0.95 to 1.05 15.99 Commercial/Industrial 0.95 to 1.05 20.99 Summary Results of Sold Parcel Analysis This report presents the analysis and associated conclusions with regard to property valuations within Weld County for the 2001 tax year. By law, these valuations are based on the tax status date of June 30, 2000. The results of the analysis are summarized in the tables below, "Summary Results of Sold Parcel Analysis," and "Summary Results of Sold Parcel Analysis by Economic Area" (if applicable). The complete analysis, including frequency distributions of ratios by class, plots of 2001 assessed value versus the sales price, ratio results, and stratifi- cation of results in single-family class is appended to this report. 2 Thos. Y. Pickett & Company, Inc. Summary Results of Sold Parcel Analysis PROPERTY NUMBER OF UNWEIGHTED LOWER 95% UPPER 95% COEFFICIENT CLASS QUALIFIED MEDIAN CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE OF SALES RATIO LIMIT LIMIT DISPERSION Commercial and 133 97.56 95.09 98.60 9.83 Industrial Condominium N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Single Family 6472 97.46 97.23 97.68 9.11 Vacant Land 1320 98.59 98.00 99.06 13.93 Summary Results Of Sold Parcels by Economic Area Economic Qualified Median Ratio Lower 95% Upper 95% Coefficient Area Sales Confidence Confidence of Limit Limit Dispersion 2 1974 98.60 98.25 98.99 6.97 3 1414 96.54 96.04 96.98 9.53 4 528 94.86 93.88 95.75 11.70 5 103 96.23 94.03 97.91 11.53 • 6 2402 97.61 97.25 98.01 9.67 8 32 92.42 83.89 101.09 16.09 Conclusions The sales ratio analysis for the property classes analyzed in Weld County indicates that the median ratios and their associated coefficients of dispersion are within the benchmarks established by 2001 Weld County 3 the SBOE. No significant differences between the change in assessed value for sold parcels and the change in assessed value for comparable unsold parcels in any classes were identified. Recommendations None. Agricultural Land Study Land Class Acres Total Actual Value Per Acre Ratio Value Dry Farm 565,262 $27,852,596 $ 49.27 1.001 Grazing 958,659 $14,180,599 $ 14.79 1.00 Irrigated Farm 369,691 $153,756,834 $415.91 .998 Meadow Hay 17,778 $2,278,816 $128.18 1.00 Waste 97,095 $544,518 $ 5.61 1.00 Total 2,008,485 $198,613,363 $ 98.89 Findings • Aerial photos from the County ASCS (now called Farm Service Agency) office and soil maps in the SCS (now called the Natural Resources Conservation Service) Soil Survey for the county were the basic tools in the land classification. • Aerial photos in the County ASCS (now called Farm Service Agency) office are used as necessary. • The land classification includes adequate detail to accurately reflect the productivity and profitability of individual parcels. • Grazing land is appropriately classified by carrying capacity with the aid of SCS Range Site maps and Range Site descriptions. • The crop rotation and lease terms accurately reflect land use in the county. • Lease terms accurately reflect land use in the county. • Production areas are established within the county. 4 Thos. Y. Pickett&Company, Inc. • Crop yields as a percentage of the ten-year county average reported by the Colorado Agricultural Statistics Service as: Irrigated Corn 100%, Irrigated All Hay 99.8%, Dry Land Wheat 100%. • Commodity prices, expense items, and capitalization rate specified by the DPT were properly used. • The pumping cost formula, as specified by DPT, is used incorporating local electric costs, well and system costs, depth, and pumping pressure. • A ten-year average of local figures documents the crop expenses. • One percent of each land class was physically inspected with the majority of parcels conforming to county appraisal records. Weld County needs to continue to update their records on sprinkler irrigation development. Also, some larger parcels of Waste need to be reviewed and acreages double-checked. Suggestions Continue to monitor the development of sprinkler irrigation and make appropriate adjustments to the valuation formula. Recommendations None Agricultural Outbuilding and Residence Study Weld County is exempt from this portion of the Property Assessment Study. Personal Property Study Thos. Y. Pickett & Company, Inc., conducted a procedural study on the overall approach to personal property in Weld County. The 2001 Weld County 5 study was executed in compliance with the provisions of Article X, Section 3(2)(a) of the Colorado Constitution and CRS Section 39-1- 104(16). Procedural Verification In accordance with ARL Volume 5, Weld County has an estab- lished discovery process for personal property. The time frame established for the 2001 audit was May 2000 through April 2001. Schedules were selected for audit based on the following criteria: Non-filing or "Best Information Available" assessments. Incomplete or inconsistent declarations. New businesses filing first time. Accounts with discrepancies from prior audits. Accounts near to the $2500 threshold. Businesses in selected geographic area. A random selection of schedules was identified for statistical analysis. Present worth established by Weld County was compared to present worth developed by Thos. Y. Pickett & Company, Inc. Specific items valued by techniques other than cost trending and depreciation were excluded from ratio analysis. Weld County used the indices, depreciation schedules, economic life, and level of value adjustment factors recommended in ARL Vol- ume 5. Statistical and Procedural Analysis Results The ratio study on the randomly selected parcels indicated a median appraisal ratio of 100.0%. Therefore, the overall level of appraisal was in compliance with the current standard adopted by the State Board of Equalization. 6 Thos. Y. Pickett &Company, Inc. The procedures employed by Weld County are in compliance with current guidelines and policies defined by the Division of Property Taxation, including the required plan to audit an appropriate number of personal property schedules each year. Recommendations None. Sales Verification Weld County maintains master sales, verified sales and qualified sales lists. Lists are maintained on a continuous basis. The verifica- tion process of all sales supplemented with a letter or phone call when TD 1000s are incomplete. The sales list development evaluation includes a random sample of qualified and unqualified sales pursuant to State requirements. Vacant land, single family and commercial sales fall within accepted requirements. Economic Area Evaluation Weld County has identified the variables which influence property values of specific neighborhoods and has adequately documented the conclusions reached. The County has also mapped the economic areas and can readily identify the economic area for each property. Subdivision Discounting Weld County has developed marketing areas for vacant land parcels and has defined these areas by divisions and filings. Questionnaires were mailed by the County to subdividers to gather information necessary for discounting. The County has documented its discounting procedures on each subdivision as well as the development of its discount rate of 10.50 percent. Subdivided land with improvements and vacant lots in subdivisions where at 2001 Weld County 7 least 80% of the lots have been sold were appraised at market value. Recommendations None. Natural Resource Study Thos. Y. Pickett & Company, Inc., conducted a study in Weld County that included various relevant natural resource elements. Earth or Stone Procedures The Colorado Revised Statutes, Article 39, Section 6, and the ARL, Volume 3, provide the guidelines in appraising natural resource property. While all three approaches should be considered, the income approach is most widely used in the valuation of earth or stone. Production and life of the leases were provided by the operator. There are no other sources available to document production. The economic location factor was applied to the gross tons extracted to determine the landlord's royalty. The landlord's royalty was multiplied by a recommended Hoskold Factor to find the actual value. The Hoskold Factor was calculated using the life of the reserves. Conclusions The guidelines set forth by the natural resource valuation procedures were followed in determining these values. Producing Gas Procedures The Colorado Revised Statutes, Article 39, Section 7, and the ARL, Volume 3, provide the guidelines in appraising gas property. The total million cubic feet (MCF) of gas are multiplied by the current average price. All government royalty is deducted from the gross value sold to determine actual value. 8 Thos. Y. Pickett&Company, Inc. Conclusions The correct appraisal procedures were used in valuing gas production. Producing Oil Procedures The Colorado Revised Statutes, Article 39, Section 7, and the ARL, Volume 3, provide the guidelines in appraising oil property. The total barrels of oil are multiplied by the current average field price. All government royalty is deducted from the gross value sold to determine actual value. Conclusions The correct appraisal procedures were used in valuing oil production. 2001 Weld County 9 Appendices Documentation of Statistical Analysis 2001 Weld County 11 Appendix A Sales Ratio Analysis I 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF RATIO FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES BY PROPERTY CLASS 1 IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC=Comm. & Indus. Percentage 35 30 — 25 — 20 — i 15 - 10 — 5 - ff�#• Rhfff 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 RATIO (go) Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF RATIO FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES BY PROPERTY CLASS 2 IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC=Comm. & Indus. Percentage ***** R**** 40 — 30 20 — ***** ***** 10 — ***** ***** 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 RATIO ($) Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF RATIO FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES BY PROPERTY CLASS 3 IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC=Condominium Percentage 40 - ***** ***** ***** ***** 35 — ***** ***** 30 — ***** ***** 25 — ***** ***** 20 — ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** 15 — ***** ***** 10 — ***** ***** ***x* ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** **u* 5 — ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** *Sr*** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 RATIO (%) Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF RATIO FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES BY PROPERTY CLASS 4 IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC=Condominium Percentage 40 — 35 — 30 25 — 20 - 15 - 10 5 -- 10 2,, 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 RATIO (6) Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF RATIO FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES BY PROPERTY CLASS 5 IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PG=Single family Percentage 40 1- 35 — 30 25 — 20 — 15 — 10 5 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 RATIO (%) Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF RATIO FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES BY PROPERTY CLASS 6 IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC=Single family Percentage 40 35 1 30 1 25 — 20 — 15 10 — 5 — 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 RATIO (°a) Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style i I FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF RATIO FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES BY PROPERTY CLASS 7 IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC=Vacant land Percentage 30 25 + 20 — 15 — 10 - 5 - L__ 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 165 195 RATIO (%) Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF RATIO FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES BY PROPERTY CLASS 8 IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC.1/acant land Percentage 35 — 30 — 25 t 20 — 15 — 10 — 5 — 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 RATIO (%) Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style PLOTS OF 2001 ASSESSED VALUE VERSUS THE SALES PRICE FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES 9 BY PROPERTY CLASS, FROM WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC=CBI Plot of RatVal*NetPrice. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc. 5000000 — C 0 M P A U 4000000 - T A T 0 N A 3000000 — A L if V A L U E 2000000 - A if A F 0 R A A A A R A 1000000 - A 7 A I AA 0 AA A AF A C C ABCA COPPMDA A 0 - LLB 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000 NET SALES PRICE ($) Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style PLOTS OF 2001 ASSESSED VALUE VERSUS THE SALES PRICE FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES 10 BY PROPERTY CLASS, FROM WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC=CON Plot of RatVal*NetPrice. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc. 500000 — C 0 M P A U 400000 — T A T 0 N A A 300000 — L A # A A ✓ A A A A L A A A U A A E 200000 - A A A H A A F A A DBAAA AAB B A O AA BC BB B A R A B A ABCD CAABCB A A A A BAA C AABA AA A R A ABCACA DCBAA DCCBCA A A 100000 - ACDDKCBAC FFCAEC A BM A T ACEFBCBACBA A I A BE AA O AA ABBB A AA AA 0 - 4 1 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 240000 260000 280000 300000 320000 340000 360000 NET SALES PRICE ($) Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style i � I PLOTS OF 2001 ASSESSED VALUE VERSUS THE SALES PRICE FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES 11 BY PROPERTY CLASS, FROM WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC=SF Plot of RatVal'NetPrice. Legend: A = 1 obs, 0 = 2 obs, etc. 1400000 — C O A M 1200000 — P U T A T 1000000 — I 0 N A L 800000 — B ✓ A A A A L A U 600000 — A E A A A A H A A AA AAAAA A F A ABA B CB A B 0 A ADBAAABGAAABCAA A A R 400000 — A DFEDECCHE CCCCAA A A BBAEGHKHKAGBICCEAABB PA R BCEGLNGJIICJGBB AB A A A A AAJFHOZMTRLKGJGDBA BB T ACBBIWPZZZZZXVJEDDAD AA I 200000 - BHUZZZZZZZZZRZJDCBDB A A AA O FOZZZZZZZZZYMGACBAA A CGPZZZZZZZZKEECB A BGNZZZZZZZLJC B C ACGLMYMPMCBD 0 - A 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000 1100000 1200000 1300000 NET SALES PRICE ($) NOTE: 3 obs had missing values. 4445 obs hidden. Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style PLOTS OF 2001 ASSESSED VALUE VERSUS THE SALES PRICE FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES 12 BY PROPERTY CLASS, FROM WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC=VAC Plot of RatVal"NetPrice. Legend: A = 1 obs, B = 2 obs, etc. 2500000 — C 0 M P U 2000000 — A T A T 0 N A 1500000 — L # V A L U E 1000000 — A # A F 0 A R A fl A A 500000 — A T A A I A A O ARAB AA AABCDDACA A AA A BDKPZEUHOHFEA A A ZZZZZZXNGCDAB AAM A 0 - DZZZGAEB CACBB 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 NET SALES PRICE ($) NOTE: 1 obs had missing values. 823 obs hidden. Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style MEDIAN RATIO AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS, COD, AND DWM RATIO AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 13 FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO NO. OF LOWER 95% UPPER 95% AGGREGATE LOWER 95% UPPER 95% ARITH. PRICE PROPERTY QUALIF MEDIAN CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON COEFFICIENT MEAN CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON MEAN RELATED CLASS SALES RATIO MEDIAN RATIO MEDIAN RATIO OF DISPERSION RATIO AGGREG. MEAN AGGREG. MEAN RATIO DIFFERENTIAL Comm. 8 Indus. 1 133 97.56 95.09 98.60 9.83 94.72 91.22 98.21 95.67 1.01 Condominium 1 251 102.72 101.36 103.50 7.59 104.61 103.23 105.99 105.20 1.01 Single family 1 6472 97.46 97.23 97.68 9.11 103.55 103.22 103.88 103.93 1.00 Vacant land 1 1320 98.59 98.00 99.06 13.93 97.52 95.29 99.75 102.03 1.05 8176 Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style MEDIAN RATIO AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS, COD, AND DWM RATIO AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 14 FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO NO. OF LOWER 95% UPPER 95% AGGREGATE LOWER 95% UPPER 95% ARITH. PRICE PROPERTY ECONOMIC QUALIF MEDIAN CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON COEFFICIENT MEAN CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON MEAN RELATED CLASS AREA SALES RATIO MEDIAN RATIO MEDIAN RATIO OF DISPERSION RATIO AGGREG. MEAN AGGREG. MEAN RATIO DIFFERENTIAL Comm. & Indus. 2 21 91.08 88.20 101.33 12.95 90.90 86.58 95.22 93.61 1.03 Comm. & Indus. 3 12 99.33 90.91 104.21 7.42 98.05 92.85 103.26 96.65 0.99 Comm. & Indus. 4 14 97.13 91.71 108.09 8.95 96.14 90.02 102.25 98.50 1.02 Comm. & Indus. 5 4 109.21 18.89 149.07 131.64 166.49 116.93 0.78 Comm. & Indus. 6 80 97.65 94.74 100.00 8.88 93.43 90.79 96.06 94.65 1.01 Comm. & Indus. 7 1 81.12 0.00 81.12 81.12 81.12 81.12 1.00 Comm. & Indus. 8 1 97.73 0.00 97.73 97.73 97.73 97.73 1.00 Condominium 2 90 101.86 100.29 105.91 7.80 103.61 101.33 105.89 102.92 0.99 Condominium 3 34 96.01 92.99 101.14 8.52 101.22 96.98 105.45 101.68 1.00 Condominium 4 2 106.31 15.72 105.17 72.56 137.78 106.31 1.01 Condominium 6 125 103.50 102.49 105.12 6.60 106.96 105.32 108.59 107.79 1.01 Single family 2 1974 98.60 98.25 98.99 6.97 102.33 101.86 102.80 103.07 1.01 Single family 3 1414 96.54 96.04 96.98 9.53 104.74 104.01 105.47 104.44 1.00 Single family 4 528 94.86 93.98 95.75 11.70 103.62 102.22 105.02 103.74 1.00 Single family 5 103 96.23 94.03 97.91 11.53 107.37 103.99 110.75 108.45 1.01 Single family 6 2402 97.61 97.25 98.01 9.67 103.62 103.04 104.19 104.12 1.00 Single family 7 19 97.39 86.47 111.72 15.47 94.28 85.73 102.82 97.61 1.04 Single family 8 32 92.42 83.89 101.09 16.09 111.42 101.97 120.86 113.07 1.01 Vacant land 1 9 95.82 93.04 100.19 4.87 98.07 93.29 102.85 97.02 0.99 Vacant land 2 464 97.53 96.41 98.56 15.68 91.23 86.11 96.35 96.96 1.06 Vacant land 3 365 93.24 90.40 96.39 17.44 102.65 99.78 105.52 107.25 1.04 Vacant land 4 82 102.76 100.00 106.00 9.07 103.00 97.73 108.26 105.68 1.03 Vacant land 5 59 93.94 88.32 99.30 14.17 91.24 86.02 96.46 93.84 1.03 Vacant land 6 312 99.73 99.30 99.98 8.08 100.08 95.52 104.64 104.58 1.04 Vacant land 7 18 100.93 82.50 103.13 15.35 97.32 90.21 104.42 95.30 0.98 Vacant land 8 11 93.75 65.93 150.00 31.59 93.45 76.86 110.05 103.11 1.10 8176 Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style . MEDIAN RATIO AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS, COD, AND DWM RATIO AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 15 FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO NO. OF LOWER 95% UPPER 95% AGGREGATE LOWER 95% UPPER 95% ARITH. PRICE PROPERTY LIVE QUALIF MEDIAN CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON COEFFICIENT MEAN CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON MEAN RELATED CLASS AREA SALES RATIO MEDIAN RATIO MEDIAN RATIO OF DISPERSION RATIO AGGREG. MEAN AGGREG. MEAN RATIO DIFFERENTIAL Single family 1 1334 93.06 92.28 93.79 12.09 99.09 98.28 99.90 99.26 1.00 Single family 2 1289 97.50 97.10 97.97 8.37 104.01 103.33 104.69 104.29 1.00 Single family 3 1280 98.69 98.21 99.28 8.05 104.73 104.07 105.40 105.28 1.01 Single family 4 1286 98.85 98.30 99.37 7.81 104.99 104.33 105.65 106.03 1.01 Single family 5 1283 97.71 97.19 98.30 8.57 103.68 102.96 104.39 105.00 1.01 6472 Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style MEDIAN RATIO AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS, COD, AND DWM RATIO AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 16 FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO NO. OF LOWER 95% UPPER 95% AGGREGATE LOWER 95% UPPER 95% ARITH. PRICE PROPERTY EFF YR QUALIF MEDIAN CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON COEFFICIENT MEAN CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON MEAN RELATED CLASS BUILT SALES RATIO MEDIAN RATIO MEDIAN RATIO OF DISPERSION RATIO AGGREG. MEAN AGGREG. MEAN RATIO DIFFERENTIAL Single family 1 1353 96.14 95.08 97.07 12.94 102.50 101.55 103.44 103.11 1.01 Single family 2 1268 94.54 93.54 95.20 11.58 100.46 99.60 101.32 100.15 1.00 Single family 3 1281 98.14 97.74 98.63 7.27 106.26 105.56 106.95 106.98 1.01 Single family 4 1938 99.07 98.61 99.38 6.27 105.85 105.37 106.32 106.75 1.01 Single family 5 632 96.78 95.73 97.44 7.73 97.77 96.95 98.59 98.45 1.01 6472 Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style I , I I t MEDIAN RATIO AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS, COD, AND DWM RATIO AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 17 FOR THE QUALIFIED SALES IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO NET NO. OF LOWER 95% UPPER 95% AGGREGATE LOWER 95% UPPER 95% ARITH. PRICE PROPERTY SALES QUALIF MEDIAN CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON COEFFICIENT MEAN CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON MEAN RELATED CLASS PRICE SALES RATIO MEDIAN RATIO MEDIAN RATIO OF DISPERSION RATIO AGGREG. MEAN AGGREG. MEAN RATIO DIFFERENTIAL Single family 1 1301 97.16 96.33 97.67 13.81 103.41 102.44 104.37 103.20 1,00 Single family 2 1290 97.06 96.46 97.67 8.92 104.78 104.06 105.51 104.75 1.00 Single family 3 1307 98.89 98.28 99.42 7.55 105.94 105.32 106.56 105.94 1,00 Single family 4 1286 98.19 97.77 98.65 6.96 104.01 103.43 104.59 104.08 1.00 Single family 5 1288 95.80 95.24 96.29 8.03 101.47 100.78 102.16 101.67 1.00 6472 Time adjustment: Double strata time adjustment Weighting: Quick-style Appendix B Sold / Unsold Analysis 1 MEDIAN CHANGE IN ASSESSED VALUE FROM 2000 TO 2001 AND ITS 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 1 FOR SOLD AND UNSOLD PARCEL STRATA IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO NO. OF SOLD MEDIAN LOWER 95% UPPER 95% UNSOLD MEDIAN LOWER 95% UPPER 95% QUALIFIED A.V. CHANGE CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON A.V. CHANGE CONF. LIMIT ON CONF. LIMIT ON SOLD - UNSOLD PC SALES (2001 - 2000) SOLD CHANGE SOLD CHANGE (2001 - 2000) UNSOLD CHANGE UNSOLD CHANGE MEDIAN CHANGE CUI 27 $16,715.00 $0.00 $29,357.00 $5,745.00 $0.00 $15,390.00 $10,970.00 CON 197 $12,680.00 $11,261.00 $12,853.00 $12,680.00 $11,261.00 $12,853.00 $0.00 SF 5046 $22,745.50 $22,249.00 $23,360.00 $20,322.00 $20,096.00 $20,636.00 $2,423.50 VAC 515 $22,576.00 $21,560.00 $24,904.00 $21,968.00 $20,785.00 $22,151.00 $608.00 TEST ON THE MEDIAN CHANGE IN ASSESSED VALUE FROM 2000 TO 2001 FOR SIMILAR 2 SOLD AND UNSOLD COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL PARCELS IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PROPERTY CLASS=C&I The NPAR1WAY Procedure Median Scores (Number of Points Above Median) for Variable C2001_2000 Classified by Variable obstype Sum of Expected Std Dev Mean obstype N Scores Under HO Under HO Score SOLD 27 17.0 13.245283 1.836790 0.629630 UNSOLD 26 9.0 12.754717 1.836790 0.346154 Average scores were used for ties. Median Two-Sample Test Statistic 9.0000 Z -2.0442 One-Sided Pr < Z 0.0205 Two-Sided Pr > 1ZI 0.0409 Median One-Way Analysis Chi-Square 4.1786 OF 1 Pr > Chi-Square 0.0409 • TEST ON THE MEDIAN CHANGE IN ASSESSED VALUE FROM 2000 TO 2001 FOR SIMILAR 3 SOLD AND UNSOLD COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL PARCELS IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PROPERTY CLASS=CON The NPAR1WAY Procedure Median Scores (Number of Points Above Median) for Variable 02001_2000 Classified by Variable obstype Sum of Expected Std Dev Mean obstype N Scores Under HO Under HO Score SOLD 197 99.250 98.50 4.892418 0.503807 UNSOLD 197 97.750 98.50 4.892418 0.496193 Average scores were used for ties. Median Two-Sample Test Statistic 99.2500 Z 0.1533 One-Sided Pr > Z 0.4391 Two-Sided Pr > IZI 0.8782 Median One-Way Analysis Chi-Square 0.0235 DF 1 Pr > Chi-Square 0.8782 TEST ON THE MEDIAN CHANGE IN ASSESSED VALUE FROM 2000 TO 2001 FOR SIMILAR 4 SOLD AND UNSOLD COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL PARCELS IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PROPERTY CLASS=SF The NPARIWAY Procedure Median Scores (Number of Points Above Median) for Variable C2001_2000 Classified by Variable obstype Sum of Expected Std Dev Mean obstype N Scores Under HO Under HO Score SOLD 5038 2657.0 2518.74470 24.828880 0.527392 UNSOLD 4829 2276.0 2414.25530 24.828880 0.471319 Average scores were used for ties. Median Two-Sample Test Statistic 2276.0000 Z -5.5683 One-Sided Pr < Z <.0001 Two-Sided Pr > IZI <.0001 Median One-Way Analysis Chi-Square 31.0063 OF 1 Pr > Chi-Square <.0001 TEST ON THE MEDIAN CHANGE IN ASSESSED VALUE FROM 2000 TO 2001 FOR SIMILAR 5 SOLD AND UNSOLD COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL PARCELS IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PROPERTY CLASS=VAC The NPARIWAY Procedure Median Scores (Number of Points Above Median) for Variable 02001_2000 Classified by Variable obstype Sum of Expected Std Dev Mean obstype N Scores Under HO Under HO Score SOLD 498 264.296296 248.751249 7.698291 0.530715 UNSOLD 503 235.703704 251.248751 7.698291 0.468596 Average scores were used for ties. Median Two-Sample Test Statistic 264.2963 Z 2.0193 One-Sided Pr > Z 0.0217 Two-Sided Pr > JZI 0.0435 Median One-Way Analysis Chi-Square 4.0775 DF 1 Pr > Chi-Square 0.0435 FIGURE 1. BLOCK FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE CHANGE IN ASSESSED VALUE FROM 2000 TO 2001 FOR SIMILAR SOLD AND UNSOLD PARCELS IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC = CON L1 PARCEL TYPE UNSOLD ��YJ�nj 0 g 9 g /q /g 254 % 102 % 152 % 2.54 % 3046 % 42.13 %I 8. I 3.55 % 203 % 152 SOLD i ( ii I) 3.05 % 3.05 % 558% 25. % 44.16 %/ / //u /u // / 58% 4.06 % 102 % 02 % 6.60 % -17000 -11000 -5000 1000 7000 13000 19000 25000 31000 37000 43000 ASSESSED CHANGE 2000-2001 SOLD PARCELS FIGURE L BLOCK FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE CHANGE IN ASSESSED VALUE FROM 2000 TO 2001 FOR SIMILAR SOLD AND UNSOLD PARCELS IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC = SF (7 PARCEL TYPE UNSOLD 9 g l / /I 1.30 % 3.25 % 5.84 % , 10.79 % 2297 % 18.97 % 9.86 % 6.81% 4.16 % 228 % 13.77 % I I SOLD i i ii I I / 250 % 3.45 % 558% ll61%a 16%1 % 14.71% 12.03 % 7.72 % 5.72 % 3.06 % 1&75 % -3000 2000 7000 12(60 17000 22000 27000 32000 37000 42000 47000 ASSESSED CHANGE 2000-2001 SOLD PARCELS FIGURE 1. BLOCK FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE CHANGE IN ASSESSED VALUE FROM 2000 TO 2001 FOR SIMILAR SOLD AND UNSOLD PARCELS IN WELD COUNTY, COLORADO PC = VAC PARCEL TYPE UNSOLD /q q 0 9 D 9.74 % 65.21 %/x// 835 % A.S5 % 3.18 % 457 % 0.40 % / SOLD i ® I i i/ IuU / 3.61% 4.42 % 1094 % 281% 4.82 % 45$8%' 15.46 % 7.23 % 3A1% 0.80% 120 % I -L58000 -122000 -86000 -50000 -14000 22000 58000 94000 130000 166000 202000 ASSESSED CHANGE 2000-2001 SOLD PARCELS Hello