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Home My WebLink About20100432.tiff RESOLUTION RE: ADOPT UPDATED NORTHEAST COLORADO REGIONAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN WHEREAS, the Board of County Commissioners of Weld County, Colorado, pursuant to Colorado statute and the Weld County Home Rule Charter, is vested with the authority of administering the affairs of Weld County, Colorado, and WHEREAS, the Board has been presented with an Updated Northeast Colorado Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan prepared by the United States Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency, effected December 2, 2009, and ending December 2,2014,with further terms and conditions being as stated in said plan, for the use and benefit of the County of Weld, State of Colorado, by and through the Board of County Commissioners of Weld County, on behalf of the Office of Emergency Management, and WHEREAS, after review, the Board deems it advisable to adopt said Updated Northeast Colorado Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan, a copy of which is attached hereto and incorporated herein by reference. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Board of County Commissioners of Weld County, Colorado, that the Updated Northeast Colorado Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan, prepared by the United States Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency, for the use and benefit of the County of Weld, State of Colorado, by and through the Board of County Commissioners of Weld County, on behalf of the Office of Emergency Management, be, and hereby is, adopted. The above and foregoing Resolution was, on motion duly made and seconded, adopted by the following vote on the 1st day of March, A.D., 2010. BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS WELD COUNTY, COLORADO � : . E L 77 ATTEST: �% i . -� I- A r., l4,- 1 cuv!41,fr (Az-- Douglas f v• % Vademac er, Chair Weld County Clerk tot i� j F A ll .r ?CA.,v-�:�� 7`.1 LRP 4 Barbara Kirkmeyer, Pro-Tem / Deputy Clerk to the Boa% Sean P./7y APPR0V A Q ORM: � V�fi ..Garcia County Attorney Davi . Long Date of signature: 3/00 /V 2010-0432 EM0014 *fl , i' C712 :Oc '/C utL-loi-c lO 1:4V7 From: 1o:+3uss5 b)n r.ebieb U.S.Dcaerunem or Hnnwlotl Seenrlu Reglnn viii (hover Pudaul CenW:.aulkling 710 • P.O.am:21267 Denver.CO $0223.0267 U FEMA RS—MIT December 2,2009 Hans Kellam,Director Colorado Division of Emergency Management 9195 East Mineral Avenue, Suite 200 Centennial, Colorado 80112 Reference:Approval of the Northeast Colorado Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Dear.Mr.Kallam: We are pleased to announce the approval of the multi jurisdictional Northeast Colorado Regional. Hazard Mitigation Plan Update, The Plan is approved for a period of five years to December 2, 2014, All participating jurisdictions that have adopted the plan are now eligible:for all Hazard Mitigation Assistance(BMA)grant programs.This plan will be filed in the NEMIS database until the mandatory update is required in five years.This plan approval extends to the following participating jurisdictions that provided copies of their resolutions adopting the plan: Logan • County. All requests for funding will be evaluated individually according to the specific eligibility and other requirements of the particular program under which the application is submitted. For example,a specific mitigation activity or project identified in the plan may not meet the eligibility requirements for FEMA funding,and even eligible mitigation activities are not automatically approved for FEMA funding under any of the aforementioned programs.We have provided several comments and recommended revisions for the next update on the attached Plan Review Crosswalk. Please share this crosswalk with the participating local jurisdictions. We wish to thank all jurisdictions that participated in the process. We trust the planning process improved risk awareness and identified future mitigation projects that can be quickly implemented as funding becomes available. Congratulations to you and your staff for assisting local communities and making mitigation planning work in your state. • Sincerely, Car` . e as A. Gore Acting Regional Administrator Enclosure-Crosswalk 0 cc: Marilyn Gaily, State hazard Mitigation Officer _ 2 i ) co a ° .i. §ixx x • x \ k B U z . � i . 1 .. 1 • \ k � � . , - g. Aa . q I2q x j\ w § I _ ; ; � § J, 1 ow i 1 , % K 2 2a $ | J « 12ra W $ O. 2 ` z i § 22 a y 2 � a II \ m © � 2 E W ri � § S . gg I it I- z P Rm 2 is 8 1 e e g _ } # i . $ Q. R " ` O is . s 1 r z i a u. 2 ` 7 / � ` E u. IL 2 / a. es 2 v , a s ) f § 1 :01s $ ' . E ag swat, ~ $ � ■ " © a & 2 . 2 Jifill � , § �i � � Z ■ 2' § | P � 2 � ® i °� _ � � ■ ■ e §« , 2 �, A ��TIC+m, .44 AC: _P- , et T i' , d - T Ii V 2 0 thr • clJ 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X T. a i z X X X X X X X X X X X • 4 A. t 5 6 • 15 o QO C ii. N ! P E k i oW IiC§ Et ii 0 ..... g i g Q o � t 3 1 8 e � � > � P a N .6 N g i4 A ILE? 3 ill g ca a. 8 1 C g a Ogg 'CIs . 2C!i2 2A ! Rog .= qP.s'A cJ cIIICCP -c►s'+:o! :woJ 4 Rh:Ci gRRP-RR--17n . . . . 2 k 4 1111111ff o. / . ,. X x x x x x xxx XX • a . . . Let � . . 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V I iit o 101 inl tpi 0 0 ii& §h it ill '� .6 4 ild 4 �j8Pik` 1 n d 97 iC2'.1 c)c9CSccw+:ol :woJ-I Fda:cI F,,RR7-API-fl 1 • Northeast Colorado Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 Updated from original version approved July 2004 • Developed by Northeast Colorado Counties with professional planning assistance from AMEC Earth and Environmental,Denver,CO Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Programs &nee • • TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapters Chapter 1 —Introduction 1.1 1.1 Purpose 1.1 1.2 Background and Scope 1.1 1.3 Plan Organization 1.2 Chapter 2—Community Profile 2.1 2.1 Geography and Climate 2.1 2.2 Population 2.3 2.4 Economy 2.4 Chapter 3 —Planning Process 3.1 3.1 Background on Mitigation Planning in the Region 3.1 3.2 The 10-Step Planning Process 3.2 3.2.1 2009 Update—Plan Section Review and Analysis 3.3 3.2.2 Phase 1: Organize Resources 3.4 3.2.3 Phase 2: Assess Risks 3.13 • 3.2.4 Phase 3: Develop the Mitigation Plan 3.14 3.2.5 Phase 4: Implement the Plan and Monitor Progress 3.15 Chapter 4—Risk Assessment 4.1 4.1 Hazard Identification 4.2 4.1.1. Results and Methodology 4.2 4.1.2 Disaster Declaration History 4.5 4.1.3 Hazards Not Included 4.7 4.2 Hazard Profiles 4.9 4.2.1 Profile Methodology 4.9 4.2.2 Biological Hazards 4.11 4.2.3 Blizzards and Severe Winter Storms 4.18 4.2.4 Dam and Levee Failures 4.23 4.2.5 Drought 4.30 4.2.6 Earthquake 4.35 4.2.7 Flooding 4.40 4.2.8 Fog 4.45 4.2.9 Hailstorms 4.47 4.2.10 Land Subsidence 4.50 4.2.11 Landslides 4.53 4.2.12 Lightning 4.55 • 4.2.13 Noxious Weeds 4.58 Northeast Colorado FINAL Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan August 2009 • 4.2.14 Straight Line Winds 4.63 4.2.15 Temperature Extremes 4.67 4.2.16 Tornados 4.72 4.2.17 Wildfires 4.76 4.3 Vulnerability Assessment 4.81 4.3.1 Methodology 4.81 4.3.2 Assets at Risk 4.83 4.3.3 Growth and Development Trends 4.86 4.3.4 Estimating Potential Losses by Hazard 4.87 Chapter 5—Mitigation Strategy 5.1 5.1 Plan Goals 5.1 5.1.1 Goals and Objectives 5.3 5.2 Identification and Analysis of Mitigation Actions 5.5 5.3 Mitigation Action Plan 5.6 5.3.1 Prioritization Process 5.7 5.3.2 Progress on Implementation 5.8 Chapter 6—Plan Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance 6.1 6.1 Formal Plan Adoption 6.1 6.2 Implement and Maintain the Plan 6.1 6.2.1 Incorporation into Existing Planning Mechanisms 6.2 • 6.2.2 Role of the Multi-County Planning Committee in Implementation and Maintenance 6.3 6.3 Maintenance 6.3 6.3.1 Maintenance/Monitoring Schedule 6.3 6.3.2 Continued Public Involvement 6.5 Chapter 7 Introduction to the County Planning Elements 7.1 7.1 Introduction 7.1 7.1.1 County Planning Subcommittee and General Description 7.1 7.1.2 County Profile 7.1 7.1.3 Hazard Identification and Summary 7.2 7.1.4 County History of Recorded Natural Hazard Losses 7.2 7.1.5 County Vulnerability Assessment 7.2 7.1.6 County Capability Assessment 7.6 7.1.7 County Recommendations 7.8 • Northeastern Colorado FINAL n Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan August 2009 • County Planning Element Annexes Cheyenne County Planning Element Kit Carson County Planning Element Lincoln County Planning Element Logan County Planning Element Morgan County Planning Element Phillips County Planning Element Sedgwick County Planning Element Washington County Planning Element Weld County Planning Element Yuma County Planning Element • Appendixes Appendix A—Acronyms Appendix B—Wildfire Mitigation Actions Appendix C -Plan Participants and Process Documentation Appendix D—Records of Adoption (electronic) • Northeastern Colorado FINAL Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan August 2009 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • This plan is the product of a planning process undertaken by the Northeast Colorado Emergency Management Association, a consortium of ten northeast Colorado counties. The purpose is to meet the requirements of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (PL 106-390) and thereby maintain continued eligibility for certain Hazard Mitigation — or disaster loss reduction — programs from FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Originally developed in 2004, this 2009 version of the plan is the first update of the required 5 year update cycle. The process followed a methodology prescribed by FEMA. It consisted of two levels of planning teams; a coordinating planning team compromised of all 10 County Emergency Managers and select state and federal agency representatives, and 10 local government teams — one in each county. Every local government and `FEMA-Eligible' entity in each county was invited to participate. The planning process examined the recorded history of losses resulting from natural hazards, and analyzed the future risks posed to each county by these hazards. The largest disasters, in terms of one-time losses, were the 1997 flood that primarily impacted Sterling and Atwood in Logan County, the 1990 tornado that struck Limon, in Lincoln County, and more recently the Windsor Tornado that impacted Windsor and other communities in Weld County in 2008. Each event caused approximately $20 million in damages, with the 2008 tornado causing over $147 million in losses. Agriculture accounts for the largest losses from hazards across the entire planning • area, with over $23 million in damages on average any given year. The most frequent events are tornadoes, with every county experiencing multiple events each year. Drought, blizzards, dam failures, hail, insects and wildlife plagues, noxious weeds, and West Nile Virus were also examined. The dam failure profile was expanded with the 2009 update to include levees, dust storms were added to the windblown hazards profile, and the biological hazards profile was expanded with zoonotic diseases. New profiles were created for lightning, fog, and land subsidence during the 2009 update. The plan's mitigation strategy is based on several regional goals and objectives for the entire planning area. The plan also puts forth county-specific recommendations for mitigation, based on the risk assessment, that are designed to reduce future losses in each county, and ultimately in the Region. Most important is the fact that the development of this plan achieved what the legislation intended — and that was for communities to gather data about the risks they face, analyze the potential impacts and losses that such risks could cause, and develop an action plan to address the most critical and threatening issues. This process has highlighted some cases of extreme exposure that can easily be addressed before the next disaster strikes, as well as others that may not be possible until the next disaster generates the funding necessary to implement them. Regardless, however, all of the communities and counties that participated in this process --- citizens, businesses, and agricultural interests alike --- will likely be safer and experience • reduced impacts from whatever happens next. Northeast Colorado FINAL Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan August 2009 • CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Purpose The Northeast Colorado Emergency Managers Association prepared this regional hazard mitigation plan update to guide hazard mitigation planning and to better protect the people and property of the planning area from the effects of natural hazard events. This plan demonstrates the region's commitment to reducing risks from hazards, and serves as a tool to help decision makers direct mitigation activities and resources. This update also maintains the planning area's eligibility for certain federal disaster assistance, specifically, the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) and Pre-Disaster Mitigation program, as well as earning credits for the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System. This plan was originally developed in 2003-2004 and approved by FEMA in October 2004. The plan was updated in 2009 with FEMA approval in November 2009. 1.2 Background and Scope • Each year in the United States, disasters take the lives of hundreds of people and injure thousands more. Nationwide, taxpayers pay billions of dollars annually to help communities, organizations, businesses, and individuals recover from disasters. These monies only partially reflect the true cost of disasters, because additional expenses to insurance companies and nongovernmental organizations are not reimbursed by tax dollars. Many disasters are predictable, and much of the damage caused by these events can be alleviated or even eliminated. Hazard mitigation is defined by FEMA as "any sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to human life and property from a hazard event." The results of a three-year, congressionally mandated independent study to assess future savings from mitigation activities provides evidence that mitigation activities are highly cost-effective. On average, each dollar spent on mitigation saves society an average of$4 in avoided future losses in addition to saving lives and preventing injuries (National Institute of Building Science Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council 2005). Hazard mitigation planning is the process through which hazards that threaten communities are identified, likely impacts of those hazards are determined, mitigation goals are set, and appropriate strategies to lessen impacts are determined, prioritized, and implemented. This plan documents the planning region's hazard mitigation planning process, identifies relevant hazards and risks, and identifies the strategies that each participating County and jurisdiction will use to • decrease vulnerability and increase resiliency and sustainability. Northeast Colorado FINAL I Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • This plan was prepared pursuant to the requirements of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (Public Law 106-390) and the implementing regulations set forth by the Interim Final Rule published in the Federal Register on February 26, 2002 (44 CFR §201.6) and finalized on October 31, 2007. (Hereafter, these requirements and regulations will be referred to collectively as the Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA).) While the act emphasized the need for mitigation plans and more coordinated mitigation planning and implementation efforts, the regulations established the requirements that local hazard mitigation plans must meet in order for a local jurisdiction to be eligible for certain federal disaster assistance and hazard mitigation funding under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Act (Public Law 93-288). Because the planning area is subject to many kinds of hazards, access to these programs is vital. Information in this plan will be used to help guide and coordinate mitigation activities and decisions for local land use policy in the future. Proactive mitigation planning will help reduce the cost of disaster response and recovery to the community and its property owners by protecting critical community facilities, reducing liability exposure, and minimizing overall community impacts and disruption. The planning area has been affected by hazards in the past and is thus committed to reducing future disaster impacts and maintaining eligibility for federal funding. 1.3 Plan Organization • The Northeast Colorado Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan is organized in alignment with the DMA planning requirements and the FEMA plan review crosswalk as follows: • Chapter 1: Introduction • Chapter 2: Community Profile • Chapter 3: Planning Process • Chapter 4: Risk Assessment • Chapter 5: Mitigation Strategy • Chapter 6: Plan Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance • Chapter 7: Introduction to the County Planning Elements • County Planning Element Annexes • Appendices 1.4 Multi-Jurisdictional Planning This plan was prepared as a regional, multi jurisdictional plan. The planning region is comprised of 10 counties of the 11-county Northeast All-Hazards Planning Region established by the Colorado Division of Emergency Management (CDEM). These Counties include Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Weld, and Yuma Counties. Larimer County is not participating in the regional planning effort but is developing a separate . hazard mitigation plan on a County level. All local units of government in the County were Northeast Colorado FINAL 1.2 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • invited to participate in the planning process. The decision whether or not to participate in this process was a local decision, based on local community needs. Communities have the options to not prepare a plan, to prepare a stand-alone plan for their jurisdiction, or to participate in a multi- jurisdiction or county-wide plan. The following table lists counties and their local governments that have opted to participate in this effort and are seeking FEMA approval of the 2009 version of this plan. Changes in participation since 2004 are noted. Additional detail about participation can be referenced in Chapter 3, the County Planning Element Annexes, and Appendix C. Table 1.1 Multi-Jurisdictional Participation 2004 and 2009 Jurisdiction Participation Status Cheyenne County Continuing Cheyenne Wells Continuing Kit Carson Continuing Wild Horse Not Participating in 09 West Cheyenne Fire Protection District Continuing Cheyenne County#1 Fire Protection District Continuing Kit Carson R-1 School District New in 2009 Cheyenne County School District RE-5 New in 2009 Elbert County Not Participating in 09 • Kit Carson County Continuing Bethune New in 2009 Burlington Continuing Flagler New in 2009 Seibert Continuing Stratton New in 2009 Vona New in 2009 Stratton School District Continuing Hi Plains School District Continuing Bethune School District Continuing Burlington Schools District New in 2009 Lincoln County Continuing Arriba Continuing Genoa Continuing Hugo Continuing Limon Continuing Northeast Lincoln Fire Protection District Continuing Karval Area Fire Protection District New in 2009 Karval School District RE 23 New in 2009 Genoa-Hugo School District C-113 Continuing • Limon Area Fire Protection District New in 2009 Northeast Colorado FINAL 1.3 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Jurisdiction Participation Status Limon Public Schools RE 4J Continuing Arickaree Groundwater Management District Not Participating in 09 Upper Big Sandy Groundwater Management District New in 2009 Logan County Continuing Sterling Continuing Peetz Continuing Crook Continuing Fleming Continuing I Ziff Continuing Merino Continuing Sterling Rural Fire Protection District Continuing Crook Fire Protection District Continuing Buffalo School District Continuing RE-1 Valley School District Continuing RE-4J Merino Schools Continuing RE-5 Plateau School District Continuing Fleming School District Continuing Iliff Platte Valley Drainage District Continuing Logan County Water Conservancy District Continuing • Morgan County Continuing Brush Continuing Fort Morgan Continuing Hillrose Continuing Wiggins Continuing Brush School District Not Participating in 09 Fort Morgan Schools Not Participating in 09 Wiggins Schools Not Participating in 09 Weldona Valley School District Not Participating in 09 RE-3 School District Not Participating in 09 Quality Water District Continuing Phillips County Continuing Haxtun Continuing Holyoke Continuing Paoli New in 2009 Holyoke Fire Protection District New in 2009 Haxtun Fire Protection District New in 2009 Haxtun Public Schools Continuing Holyoke Public Schools Continuing • Northeast Colorado FINAL 1.4 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Jurisdiction Participation Status Sedgwick County Continuing Julesburg Continuing Ovid Continuing Sedgwick Continuing Julesburg Irrigation District Not Participating in 09 Julesburg Public Schools Continuing District RE1, Revere School District New in 2009 Washington County Continuing Akron Continuing Otis Continuing Woodlin School District New in 2009 Arickaree Public School Continuing Akron Fire Department New in 2009 Akron Public Schools Continuing Southwest Washington County Fire Protection District New in 2009 Weld County Continuing Ault Continuing Dacono Continuing Erie Not Participating • Evans Continuing Firestone Continuing Fort Lupton Continuing Frederick Continuing Garden City Continuing Gilcrest Continuing Greeley New in 2009 Grover New in 2009 Hudson Continuing Johnstown Continuing Keenesburg Continuing Kersey Continuing LaSalle Continuing Mead Continuing Milliken Continuing New Raymer Continuing Nunn New in 2009 Pierce New in 2009 Platteville Continuing Severance Continuing • Northeast Colorado FINAL 1.5 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Jurisdiction Participation Status Windsor Continuing Weld County RE-4, RE-6,and RE-8 School Districts Continuing Platte Valley Schools Continuing Platte Valley Fire District Continuing Yuma County Continuing Eckley Continuing Wray Continuing Yuma Continuing Liberty School District Not Participating in 09 Wray Public Schools Not Participating in 09 Yuma Public Schools Not Participating in 09 Idalia Sanitation District New in 2009 Yuma County Fire Protection District New in 2009 Yuma Rural Fire Protection District New in 2009 • • Northeast Colorado FINAL 1.6 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • CHAPTER 2 COMMUNITY PROFILE This section provides a brief overview of the geography of the planning area. Additional geographic profiles of the participating Counties are provided in the County Planning Elements. 2.1 Geography and Climate The planning region is comprised of 10 counties of the 11-county Northeast All-Hazards Planning Region established by the Colorado Division of Emergency Management (CDEM). These Counties include Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Weld, and Yuma Counties. Larimer County is not participating in the regional planning effort but is developing a separate hazard mitigation plan on a County level. This region of the state is generally characterized by the Great Plains, though portions of east- southeast Weld County are closer to the Front Range region and major portions of south-south east Lincoln County fall in the Arkansas Divide area. The region covers some 19,761 square miles and elevations range between 3,000 and 6,000 feet, which increases from east to west. The majority of the land mass is devoted to agriculture, with an estimated 17,243 square miles devoted to farmland (87% of the planning area)! The major • rivers in the region include the Arickaree River, Big Sandy Creek, the South Platte River, the Cache la Poudre River, and the South Fork of the Republican River. Major roadways include Interstate 25, Interstate 70, Interstate 76, State Highway 85 and State Highway 34. A base map of the planning region is illustrated in Figure 2.1. The climate of the Great Plains is characterized by dry winters with occasional wind-blown snow and alternating periods of very cold temperatures followed by very warm days. Springs are windy and highly variable, including the occasional blizzard, rapid and drastic temperature changes, and high levels of precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. Summers offer low humidity with hot days and cools nights. Large thunderstorms are common and some of the most ferocious hail storms in the entire continent occur here. The fall is cool and dry. Overall, the area is considered semi-arid with precipitation levels increasing from west to east. • USDA,2007 Census of Agriculture. Northeast Colorado FINAL 2.1 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 SFigure 2. 1 Northeastern Colorado Planning Region • WYOMING i NEBRASKA -- ', SEDGWICK ' --- i l 4 . - LOGAN _ HILLIPS • . . : • VVELC1 . . i ---I , , s f �a •' :. l; MORGAN _ - ', . \--4---4-ert---...46...<4.ri e , r 4.1YUMA '' r -WASHINGTON I • . . . /, � ,} i w 1 i � i i Z r � c I re ,' ,' 1' r r r,^ter C� -a_ • re- �� f 1 AiS —II / A/ref , `'ad ,' ~ i .j,' .,J r , KIT CARSON r A rr:A / ? . H l J -i I I 1 S 1 -- 'f i •`� •LINCOLN LEGEND ' \ - - CHEYENNE t L. ! Streams t.....- -4 I/4--. j I_ Lakes 1 r Highway --- - - - - i ' Interstate I ti -- Railroads — --- ------z-- --- - -- Cities ,_ �� `7%. , I = Northeast Counties 4 i , . Cri Counties I.• L States , \iii r-4e '_ ` I a� I l e 0 25; misfit Wes N Map compiled 4/2009; intended for planning purposes only. Data Source: State of Colorado. COOT. CDOWR • Northeast Colorado FINAL 2.2 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Along the western edge of the plains and near the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, the climate changes significantly. Wind movements are lower, but the presence of Chinook and bora winds create periods of extremely high wind events. Temperature changes from day to day are less extreme and generally the overall temperature cools closer to the mountain regions. Altitude increases, and helps create a corridor of milder climate in which the majority of the Colorado population resides. East-southeast Weld County and the far eastern edges of Lincoln County are sometimes classified in this milder climate corridor.2 2.2 Population Table 2.1 describes the population and projected population rates for the planning region. Specific population counts for 2008 are located in the County chapters of the plan. The State Demographics Office (SDO) predicts that the overall region would grow at a relatively slow rate from 2000 through 2035. Weld County was predicted to grow the fastest, and Cheyenne County was predicted to grow the slowest. The 2008 estimated population for the entire planning region, according to the U.S. Census, is 322,227,which is an increase in growth of 20.7%in 8 years. Table 2.1. Planning Region Projected Population 2000 SDO SDO SDO SDO SDO SDO SDO Census Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. • COUNTIES July, July, July, July, July, July, July, July, 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 COLORADO 4,338,789 4,718,562 5,207,801 5,729,168 6,285,135 6,816,932 7,321,292 7,807,391 REGION 266,934 316,083 360,422 412,843 471,758 539,069 611,932 684,298 Region%Change 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% Cheyenne 2,231 2,120 2,068 2,102 2,192 2,240 2,255 2,260 Kit Carson 8,011 7,882 8,002 8,304 8,592 8,801 8,983 9,144 Lincoln 6,087 5,905 5,966 6,237 6,534 6,851 7,151 7,426 Logan 20,504 21,605 23,327 25,840 28,319 30,697 32,477 33,998 Morgan 27,171 28,348 31,241 34,988 39,012 43,185 47,393 51,567 Phillips 4,480 4,631 4,745 4,890 5,031 5,155 5,220 5,259 Sedgwick 2,747 2,667 2,705 2,826 2,946 3,054 3,131 3,204 Washington 4,926 4,936 4,990 5,071 5,153 5,212 5,267 5,281 Weld 180,936 228,011 267,032 311,809 362,816 422,375 488,291 554,190 Yuma 9,841 9,978 10,346 10,776 11,163 11,499 11,764 11,969 Source:Stale Demographics Office. • 2 Ibid. Northeast Colorado FINAL 2.3 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Select Census 2000 demographic and social characteristics for the planning area are shown in Table 2.2. Characteristics for planning region are listed by County. Economic characteristics are provided in Table 2.3 Table 2.2. Demographic and Social Characteristics y C ae p C O co nl 6 2 . N wm 8 cn rn = c d E .c J .3 2 a m 3 Y C) 2 ✓t 3 Characteristic Age Under 5 Years(%) 6.4 6.1 5.0 5.9 8.5 6.9 5.6 6.2 7.8 6.6 65 Years and Over(%) 16.6 14.6 14.3 14.2 13.0 19.4 22.1 18.2 9.0 16.3 Median Age 37.9 37.4 37.8 37.7 49.9 39.8 43.2 40.2 49.9 37.3 Special Considerations Disability Status(%) 16.1 18.3 19.1 16.4 17.3 17.1 20.4 18.7 17.9 18.5 Speak Language other than English 7.6 13.2 6.9 0 25.6 10.9 9.3 5.2 20.3 11.5 (%) Families Below Poverty Level (%) 8.7 9.4 8.1 4.3 8.5 8.8 7.8 8.6 8.0 8.8 Individuals Below Poverty Level (%) 11.1 12.1 11.7 8.7 12.4 11.6 10.0 11.4 12.0 12.9 Other • Average Family Size 3.12 3.07 3.04 2.9 3.29 3.01 2.83 2.97 3.25 3.13 Average Household Size 2.5 2.5 2.44 2.33 2.8 2.47 2.31 2.46 2.78 2.55 High School Graduate or Higher(%) 85.1 77.0 81.8 84.0 71.4 81.6 79.3 81.7 79.6 79.5 Bachelors Degree or Higher(%) 14.2 15.4 13.2 27.0 13.5 19.6 13.4 14.3 21.6 15.5 Source:U.S.Census Bureau,2000,www.census.gov/ 2.3 Economy Select economic characteristics for the planning region from the 2000 Census and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (2009) are shown in Table 2.3. Characteristics are represented by County. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 2.4 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Table 2.3. Planning Area Economic Characteristics • e ae c e ec c a 0) v m T A Ti to to cn - 99OI a ar 7 L r J J r2 0. N A 3 Y Characteristic v Y 3 Families below 53 198 114 454 592 110 62 121 3,660 235 Poverty Level Individuals below 244 905 590 2,253 3,281 507 270 555 22,019 1,244 Poverty Level Median Home 62,400 80,400 77,800 87,700 95,900 79,800 57,100 70,800 140,400 77,100 Value(1999$) Median Household 37,054 33,152 31,917 32,724 34,568 32,177 28,278 32,431 42,321 33,169 Income(1999$)' Per Capita 17,850 16,964 15,510 16,721 15,492 16,394 16,125 17,788 18,957 16,005 Income($) Population in 63.5 61.0 52.4 60.7 62.4 59.7 60.9 62.8 68.6 66.2 Labor Force(%)* Unemployment 3.4 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.4 4.2 4.0 4.4 7.9 3.2 (%).. Source:U.S.Census Bureau(2000),www.census.gov/;Bureau of Labor Statistics,www.bls.gov/ 'Above age 16 • **January 2009,Bureau of Labor Statistics • Northeast Colorado FINAL 2.5 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • CHAPTER 3 THE PLANNING PROCESS Requirements §201.6(b) and §201.6(c)(1): An open public involvement process is essential to the development of an effective plan. In order to develop a more comprehensive approach to reducing the effects of natural disasters, the planning process shall include: 1) An opportunity for the public to comment on the plan during the drafting stage and prior to plan approval; 2) An opportunity for neighboring communities, local and regional agencies involved in hazard mitigation activities, and agencies that have the authority to regulate development, as well as businesses, academia, and other private and nonprofit interests to be involved in the planning process; and 3) Review and incorporation, if appropriate, of existing plans, studies, reports, and technical information. [The plan shall document] the planning process used to develop the plan, including how it was prepared, who was involved in the process, and how the public was involved. 3.1 Background on Mitigation Planning in the Region • Prior to initiating the development of this regional multi jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan in 2002, two critical activities took place that established the foundation for the entire planning process. First, a substantial coordination effort took place to ensure the participation of all 11 counties within the Northeast Colorado Emergency Management Association (NCEM). Second, a professional hazard mitigation planning consultant was hired. In Colorado, the Colorado Office of Emergency Management (CDEM) utilizes a regional support structure to assist the counties with all aspects of emergency management, including planning. Each region has a "Regional Coordinator." In Northeast Colorado the regional coordinator is a former County Emergency Manager from Morgan County, one of the NCEM counties. The Regional Coordinator contacted the County Board of Commissioners in each of the 11 counties and explained the DMA planning requirement and the leadership and coordination role that each of the 11 county emergency managers would be required to undertake, and that the Board of Commissioners would be expected to formally adopt the plan upon its completion. The county emergency managers, in turn, then contacted each of the incorporated communities and other FEMA "eligible applicants" within their own counties, offering them the opportunity to participate in the development of the NCEM plan versus having to develop their own individual plans. Every incorporated community within the 11 counties, with the exception of Greeley in Weld County, chose to participate in the development of the initial plan. Greeley, the largest city • within the entire 21,600 square mile planning area, developed their own DMA plan with the Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.1 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • cities of Loveland and Fort Collins, two similar cities in terms of size and risk, both of which are outside of the NCEM planning area. The NCEM then determined that the actual process of facilitating and developing their multi- jurisdictional DMA plan was beyond their capability and expertise. Thus, the organization decided to contract with a professional hazard mitigation planning consultant. NCEM selected The Mitigation Assistance Corporation (TMAC) of Boulder, Colorado. TMAC's role was to: • Establish a planning organization for the entire planning area and all of the participants; • Meet all of the DMA requirements as established by federal regulations, following FEMA's planning guidance; • Facilitate the entire planning process; • Identify the data requirements that the participating counties, communities, and other FEMA "eligible applicants" could provide, and conduct the research and documentation necessary to augment that data; • Develop and facilitate the public input process; • Produce the draft and final plan documents; and • Guarantee acceptance of the final Plan by FEMA Region VIII. The majority of funding for the planning assistance contract was provided to the NCEM member counties by FEMA through CDEM. The required local match was provided as an "in-kind" or • "soft" match, through the many, many hours spent on this effort by each of the planning team participants, as well as the use of their facilities for meetings and actual cash disbursements for copying and public notices, where necessary. The 2009 plan update process was initiated in the fall of 2007 with the submission of a PDM planning grant to update the plan. The grant award was made in mid-2008 and AMEC Earth and Environmental was selected to facilitate the update. AMEC's role in process was the same as TMAC's original role. Initial discussions on the update process were held at an October NCEM meeting, but the process formally began with a kick-off meeting in January 2009. The following narrative of the 10-step planning process preserves the original process of this plan's development, supplemented with activities that took place during the update in 2009. 3.2 The 10-Step Planning Process The process for this planning effort utilized the DMA planning requirements, and FEMA's associated guidance. This guidance is structured around a generalized 4-phase process: 1) Organize Resources 2) Assess Risks 3) Develop the Mitigation Plan 4) Implement the Plan and Monitor Progress • Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.2 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Into this four-phase process, AMEC integrated a more detailed 10-step planning process used for FEMA's Community Rating System (CRS) and Flood Mitigation Assistance programs. Thus, the modified 10-step process used for this plan meets the requirements of six major programs: FEMA's Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, Pre-Disaster Mitigation program, CRS, Flood Mitigation Assistance Program, Severe Repetitive Loss program, and new flood control projects authorized by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Table 3.1 shows how the modified 10-step process fits into FEMA's four-phase process. Figure 3.1 Four PhasefTen Step Process FEMA's 4-Phase DMA Process Modified 10-Step CRS Process 1)Organize Resources 201.6(c)(1) 1)Organize the Planning Effort 201.6(b)(1) 2) Involve the Public 201.6(b)(2)and (3) 3) Coordinate with Other Departments and Agencies 2)Assess Risks 201.6(c)(2)(i) 4) Identify the Hazards 201.6(c)(2)(ii) 5)Assess the Risks 3) Develop the Mitigation Plan • 201.6(c)(3)(i) 6)Set Goals 201.6(c)(3)(ii) 7) Review Possible Activities 201.6(c)(3)(iii) 8) Draft an Action Plan 4) Implement the Plan and Monitor Progress 201.6(c)(5) 9)Adopt the Plan 201.6(c)(4) 10) Implement, Evaluate,and Revise the Plan This plan's original planning process was initiated in August 2002, by developing and delivering training for the 11 NCEM county emergency managers on the DMA requirements, this planning process, and their role in it. TMAC also provided each county emergency manager with a formatted planning notebook to help keep all their planning information organized. The first planning meeting took place in October 2002. The final plan was completed in July 2004. 3.2.1 2009 Update - Plan Section Review and Analysis During the 2009 plan update, the Multi-County Mitigation Planning Committee (MCPC) steering committee updated each of the sections of the previously approved plan to include new information and improve organization and formatting of the plan's contents. The MCPC and AMEC analyzed each section using FEMA's local plan update guidance (July 2008) to ensure that the plan met requirements. The MCPC and AMEC determined that nearly every section of • the plan would need revision to align the plan with the latest FEMA planning guidance and Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.3 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 requirements. Thus the 2009 plan has been significantly revised from the 2004 version, most notably in Chapter 4 - Risk Assessment. A concerted effort was made to make the plan more concise and tighten the original verbiage of the 2004 plan. More detailed documentation on the update methodology and process is provided at the beginning of each plan section. Notes of how various sections of the plan were improved or altered during the update are noted where appropriate in the narrative of the planning process that follows. 3.2.2 Phase 1: Organize Resources Step 1: Get Organized - Building the Planning Team With the County Board of Commissioners approval of participation in the DMA Plan development, and the commitment to participate by the incorporated communities and invited other "eligible applicants," TMAC next established a framework and organization for the development of this plan. This plan was originally developed by a primary planning team composed of each county emergency manager and the CDEM Regional Coordinator. (Two counties, Cheyenne and Kit Carson, share the same Emergency Manager). The team was chaired by TMAC, and supplemented by invited agency representatives. This team was called the Multi-County Planning Committee (MCPC). The MCPC met monthly for one year to develop the initial plan. • The meetings were conducted in conjunction with the regularly scheduled NCEM meetings, generally on the second Tuesday of each month. The MCPC meetings rotated location among the member counties. During the development of this plan, several changes occurred in the MCPC. Logan County, with the City of Sterling, hired a full-time Emergency Manager to replace their over-burdened Fire Department representative, and Elbert County had a change of personnel in the Emergency Manager position. The MCPC stayed in existence for the purpose of implementing and updating this plan and actively participated during the 2008-2009 update. The ten counties in the Northeast Colorado Emergency Management Region that participated in this plan in 2009 include: • Cheyenne County • Kit Carson County • Lincoln County • Logan County • Morgan County • Phillips County • Sedgwick County • Washington County • Weld County • Yuma County • Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.4 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Entities that participated within each county can be referenced in each County Planning Element. Figure 3.2 The 2004 Northeast Colorado Emergency Management Association DMA Multi- County Planning Committee (MCPC)re , w 11 I 1'' f et I , VI1 t i 4 a • • , Subordinate to the MCPC, each of the counties established their own County Planning Subcommittee, or CPS. The County Emergency Manager chaired each CPS, with representatives of various county departments, incorporated communities, other "eligible applicants," and other participants comprising its membership. The meetings were facilitated either by TMAC or the County Emergency Manager. Typical county representatives to each CPS include the sheriff s office, fire, building, and planning departments and the assessor' s office. In some of the CPSs one person might be serving the position of several representatives, as they would in the course of their normal day-to-day Job. In cases where large communities, or communities facing significant risks warranted representation by multiple departments, they would either all attend the CPS meetings or establish a separate community subcommittee to the CPS. Each CPS met a minimum of five times throughout the 2004 planning process, and a minimum of two times during the 2009 update process. Each CPS will stay in existence for the purpose of implementing and updating this plan. During the 2009 update the MCPC and CPSs were re-convened with a series of kick-off meetings. A MCPC kickoff meeting was held in January to explain the update scope and schedule, and develop sub-regional groupings of counties within the region for future planning • meetings. The Northeast Region was divided into 4 sub-regions outlined in the figures that Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.5 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • follow. These sub-regional groupings were based on factors such as proximity to each other (Sedgwick, Phillips and Yuma), and history of collaboration (e.g. and Lincoln, Cheyenne, and Kit Carson). Weld County was its own sub-region due to its size and number of jurisdictions. Each sub-region held planning meetings with the respective CPSs in each. This consolidation effort was appreciated by stakeholders participating in the planning process, such as the Colorado Division of Emergency Management and Colorado State Forest Service, who could attend 1 meeting with 3 counties, instead of 3 meetings in 3 counties. Elbert County is developing its own mitigation plan and did not participate in the 2009 update. The City of Greeley joined the regional planning effort in 2009, opting not to participate in the Loveland-Fort Collins-Larimer plan update. The sub-regional grouping helped consolidate the number of CPS meetings held during the update process. Figure 3.3 is representative of the NCEM planning structure for this DMA plan. A map of the participating counties represented in Figure 3.3 is shown in Figure 3.4, color coded by sub-region. In 2009 each CPS was reconvened with an invitation letter to attend a kickoff meeting. The kickoff meeting discussed the benefits of developing a hazard mitigation plan, the project schedule, and the hazards that affect the region and each county. The invitation letter went to various county departments, incorporated communities, other eligible applicants such as fire districts, and other stakeholders. Stakeholders on the local CPS varied by county but included electric utility providers, ambulance services, community hospital representatives, regional area • trauma councils, groundwater management districts, and food distributors. Lists of who participated are provided at the beginning of each of the 10 County Planning Elements (CPE) that are annexes to this plan. The DMA planning regulations and guidance stress that each local government seeking FEMA approval of its mitigation plan must participate in the planning effort in the following ways: • Participate in the planning process, • Detail areas within the planning area where the risk differs from that facing the entire area, • Identify specific projects to be eligible for funding, and • Have the governing board formally adopt the plan. For the Northeast Colorado Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, "participation" meant: • Attending and participating in the MCPC meetings, CPS meetings, or individual meetings with the County Emergency Manager • Providing available data requested of the MCPC, • Reviewing and providing comments on the plan drafts, • Advertising, coordinating, and participating in the public input process, and • Coordinating the formal adoption of the plan by the governing boards. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.6 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 Northeastern Colorado has a number of small, rural jurisdictions with limited resources. In some counties such as Sedgwick, Lincoln, and Washington the County Emergency Managers are empowered to participate in planning efforts on the behalf of these small communities. This "authorized representation" model is a suggested method in FEMA's multi jurisdictional planning guidance, and was utilized for certain counties and jurisdictions in this plan. These specific instances are noted in the respective County Planning Element. During the planning process, the MCPC communicated with a combination of face-to-face meetings, phone interviews, email correspondence, and the readynortheast.org website. The website was utilized to allow members of the MCPC, the public, and other stakeholders in the Hazard Mitigation Plan to access information about the planning process, share data and reports, and review and comment on plan drafts. Two planning tools were developed by AMEC to facilitate information gathering for the update. This included two data collection tools: the first designed to gather updated information on recent hazard events, critical facilities and inventory data based on assessor's data; and the second designed to collected information on updated capabilities and progress on implementation of actions recommended in 2004. In addition, revised drafts of the CPEs were distributed electronically to the CPSs for review and comment, with areas needing particular attention highlighted within the document. This updated plan is a result of planning team input provided through these combinations of data collection tools, comments on draft planning elements, and information gathered during planning meetings. • Thirteen planning meetings with the MCPC and CPSs were held during the plan's development between December and July 2009. The meeting schedule and topics are listed in the following table. Sign in sheets from these minutes are included in Appendix C. Agendas and minutes of these meetings can be referenced in a planning process reference notebook on file with each County and the Northeast Colorado CDEM regional coordinator. Table 3.2 2009 Hazard Mitigation Planning Meetings Meeting Date(s) Purpose MCPC Regional 1/13/2009 • Review Disaster Mitigation Act planning requirements,scope of work,and Planning Kickoff schedule Meeting • Review role of MCPC • Discuss data collection needs • Review and update identified hazards • Discuss approach for continued public involvement CPS Kickoff 2/17/2009- • Review Disaster Mitigation Act planning requirements,scope of work, and Meetings Phillips, schedule Sedgwick, • Overview of existing plan 4 meetings held Yuma • Review role of CPS/participation requirements in various 2/19/2009- • Discuss data collection needs locations Logan, • Review and update identified hazards Morgan, • Discuss approach for continued public involvement Washington 2/23/2009 Lincoln, Cheyenne, • Kit Carson Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.7 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Meeting Date(s) Purpose , 2/19/2009 Weld MCPC 04/21 /2009 • Review and update goals and objectives Mitigation Greeley Strategy - Goals Revision 4. CPS 04/28/2009 - • Review and comment on updated risk assessment Mitigation Logan, • Review and approve updated goals Strategy - Morgan • Introduce methodology for reviewing mitigation alternatives and updating Actions 4/28/2009 - actions Development Lincoln, • Review criteria for evaluation and prioritization and Update Cheyenne, • Develop priority mitigation actions Kit Carson • Review and update plan maintenance and implementation strategy 6 meetings held 4/29/2009 - in various Lincoln, locations Sedgwick 5/6/2009 Weld- 5/13/2009- Phillips 5/14/2009- Washington MCPC Final 7/14/2009 • Introduce progress on final draft draft Yuma • Discuss the review and comment period presentation • Finalize approach and schedule for public meetings • Figure 3.3 Regional Planning Structure CMCPC 1 State/Fed Public Private Stakeholders Stakeholders I I - I li ! Sub-region 1 Sub-region 2 Sub-region 3 Sub-region 4 Logan County ' Phillips CountyH \ Cheyenne Weld County J CPS CPS County CPS CPS Morgan County Sedgwick Kit Carson CPS County CPS - County CPS Washington Yuma County 1 Lincoln County County CPS CPS CPS \ J \ S Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.8 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Figure 3.4 Participating Counties and County Seats [11WCK LOGAN WELD Sterling HolyOki PHILLIPS Gainey - Fort Moisten MORGAN *Akron s lterti `I t YUMA WASHINGTON A KIT CARSON * He LINCOLN *Cheyenne Ns CHEYENNE • MCPC and CPS meeting dates, agendas, and attendance logs are on file with the CDEM Regional Planner and in Appendix C. Step 2: Plan for Public Involvement - Engaging the Public At MCPC Meeting #1 in October 2002, a plan for public involvement was discussed and agreed upon. Interested members of the general public were invited to participate on the MCPC or their CPS, at their choosing. The invitations were extended from each county emergency manager through a "Planning Public Awareness" campaign that consisted of a press release and article posting to the NCEM website at www.ncem10.org The press release and internet web posting resulted in several newspaper articles and radio interviews. A collage of many of the newspaper articles is on the next page. The remaining articles, press releases and Internet postings are on file with the CDEM Regional Coordinator. In addition to inviting the public to participate, some CPSs invited particular people to their meetings who they thought would be interested, or have something to contribute. Additionally, a • second press release and web posting were developed prior to the public review of the mitigation Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.9 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 plan. This public review took place through a series of formal public meetings in each of the 11 participating counties in August 2003. In addition, TMAC gave formal presentations at professional meetings in 3 states to describe the NCEM DMA planning project, and additional planning ideas were generated as a result. During the 2009 update, as part of the initial kick-off meeting conducted in Planning Step 1, the MCPC discussed and determined how to meet the planning requirement for continued Public Involvement. The major component of public involvement was accomplished through formal public meetings, conducted after the MCPC and CPSs reviewed the first draft of the updated regional mitigation plan. AMEC helped facilitate 10 public meetings, one in each county, with assistance from each CPS in meeting advertising, coordination, and logistics. Most of these meetings were held as part of the regularly scheduled Board of County Commissioner meetings that were open to the public (in Morgan, Sedgwick, Phillips, Yuma, Lincoln and Kit Carson counties). The MCPC felt that this would be the best venue to attract attendance at the meetings, and introduce the updated plan to the local elected officials who will ultimately adopt the plan. Three counties (Weld, Cheyenne, and Washington) held public meetings specifically about the plan. Logan County held a meeting in conjunction with its Local Emergency Planning Commission meeting, which included members of the public and private businesses. The meetings took place between August 25th and September 2nd at various locations in the region. Sign in sheets from the meetings are documented in Appendix C. The purpose of the meetings was to introduce the highlights of the updated plan, advertise the public review and comment period, and inform the public on how comments could be submitted. A public comment form was developed to collect comments at the meetings, and for download from the readynortheast.org website. The meetings were advertised through news releases and county and community websites. The public review and comment period took place between August 24th and September 86 2009. Only a few public comments were received, mostly related to corrections to make the plan more accurate. Other remaining comments received were from plan participants who also attended the meetings. These final comments were incorporated into the final version the plan. In addition to the meetings discussed previously, Washington County combined its goals and actions CPS meeting with a Citizens Emergency Response Team (CERT) meeting. CERT includes members of the public. Seven citizen members of the local CERT team attended and help participate in the update to the Washington County planning element. Step 3: Coordinate with other Departments and Agencies Early on in the planning process, the MCPC determined that data collection and plan approval would be greatly enhanced by inviting other state, federal, and university agencies to participate in the planning process. The following entities were invited to participate in the planning process on MCPC or CPSs. Many of these agencies regularly participate in the NCEM monthly meetings: • Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.10 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • • AIMS Community College • CDEM* (a division within the Department of Local Affairs [DOLA]) • Colorado Division of Wildlife • Colorado State University Agricultural Extension (CSU)* • Colorado State Forest Service* • Colorado Water Conservation Board (Colorado Department of Natural Resources [DNR]) • FEMA • National Weather Service (NWS) • Northeast Colorado Health Department* • Northeast Colorado All Hazards Region* • Northern Colorado American Red Cross* • Colorado Department of Corrections* • Participated on MCPC in 2009 update In addition to the above agencies this plan included the involvement of multi-jurisdictional Private Nonprofit Utilities such as Rural Electric Cooperatives. These entities participated in planning meetings and provided feedback on the draft plan. These and other for-profit entities included: • Kit Carson Electric • • Highline Electric • Kit Carson Memorial Hospital • Keefe Memorial Hospital • Burlington Rotary Club • Corrections Corporation of America (Kit Karson County Correctional Facility)* • Duke Energy • Union Pacific Railroad • Shell Pipeline • Black Hills Energy • Verizon Wireless • Viaero Wireless • Qwest • Eastern Slope Rural Telephone Association • Various irrigation and ditch companies • Leprino Foods • Fort Morgan Chamber of Commerce In addition, TMAC, AMEC, and/or the county emergency managers utilized the resources of the following agencies in the development of this plan: • The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) • Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.11 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • • The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and its subsidiary organizations: o The Farm Service Agency (FSA); o The Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) and it's predecessor, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS); and o The National Crop Insurance Service (NCIS) • The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) • The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) • The Colorado Department of Natural Resources, Office of the State Engineer • The Colorado Geological Survey (CGS) • Colorado State University (CSU), and • The Office of Archaeology and Historic Preservation, Colorado Historical Society • Other Community Planning Efforts and Hazard Mitigation Activities Other documents were reviewed and considered, as appropriate, during the collection of data to support Planning Steps 4 and 5, which include the hazard identification, vulnerability assessment, and capability assessment. Coordination with other community planning efforts is also paramount to the success of this plan. Hazard mitigation planning involves identifying existing policies, tools, and actions that will reduce a community's risk and vulnerability from natural hazards. The region uses a variety of mechanisms, such as comprehensive plans and ordinances, to guide growth and development. • Integrating existing planning efforts and mitigation policies and action strategies into this plan establishes a credible and comprehensive plan that ties into and supports other community programs. Examples of the integration include the implementation of recommendations of this plan through local capital improvement plans or stormwater drainage master plans. The City of Evans has successfully implemented projects this way between 2004-2009. Some examples of how this plan was incorporated into existing planning mechanisms 2004-2009 include using this plan's Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment as the Hazard Analysis for the Weld County Emergency Operations Plan and Crisis Action Guides for the incorporated communities of Hudson, Lochbuie, and Kersey. During the 2009 update a greater emphasis was placed on wildfire hazard mitigation, driven in part by new legislation requiring county level Community Wildfire Protection Plans. Effort was made during this planning process to align this plan to help meet some of the requirements of a CWPP, such as including mitigation projects specific to wildfire. Integrating these two efforts has already begun in some counties and will continue in the region. This is described in more detail in Chapter 5. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.12 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 3.2.3 Phase 2: Assess Risks Steps 4 and 5: Identify the Hazards and Assess the Risks AMEC led the MCPC in an exhaustive research effort to identify and document all the hazards that have, or could, impact the planning area. Data collection worksheets were used in this effort to aid in determining hazards and vulnerabilities, and where risk varies across the planning area. Geographic information systems (GIS) were used to display, analyze, and quantify hazards and vulnerabilities. The MCPC also conducted a capability assessment to review and document the planning area's current capabilities to mitigate risk and vulnerability from natural hazards. By collecting information about existing government programs, policies, regulations, ordinances, and emergency plans, the MCPC can assess those activities and measures already in place that contribute to mitigating some of the risks and vulnerabilities identified. A more detailed description of the risk assessment process and the results are included in Chapter 4 Risk Assessment. Highlights of new information and analyses contained in the 2009 plan update include the following: • A new assessment of hazards affecting the region was completed resulting in the inclusion of these additional hazards: the dam failures profile was expanded to include levees; dust • storms were added to the windblown hazards profile; and the biological hazards profile was expanded with zoonotic diseases. New profiles were created for lightning, fog, and land subsidence. Dust storm was added as a component of straight line winds. • An entire rework of the risk assessment for each identified hazard. This included reworking the hazard profile and adding new hazard events occurrences, redoing the entire vulnerability analysis to add items identified below, and updating the vulnerability assessment based on more recent hazard data. • An update of the vulnerability assessment in each CPE, including the inclusion of more data for each jurisdiction and an improved assessment of how the risk from identified hazards varies across the planning area in each county. • An expansion of the flood hazard analysis to including running and incorporating an analysis HAZUS-MH flood loss estimation for every county. This enhanced vulnerability assessment included an analysis of populations vulnerable to flooding, and the potential losses for agriculture from flooding. • An enhanced vulnerability assessment which added an inventory of critical facilities by jurisdiction and analysis of critical facilities vulnerable to flood and wildfire hazards, which had not been done previously due to lack of existing data. • GIS maps were added, including those displaying critical facilities, and wildfire and flood hazards. Every CPE includes new maps: one shows the countywide flood hazards and flood depth, another shows the detail of the flood hazard within jurisdictional boundaries and in relation to critical facilities. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.13 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Each CPE includes an updated capabilities assessment building off of information from the previous plan and integrating new information from a worksheet filled out by CPS members. This included an inventory and review of existing policies, regulations, plans, projects, and programs to determine if they contribute to reducing hazard related losses. Combining the risk assessment with the capability assessment results in "net vulnerability" to disasters and more accurately focuses the goals, objectives, and proposed actions of this plan. Jurisdictional capabilities are noted in each respective CPE. • Also, as required by the 2008 planning guidance, an analysis of each jurisdiction's ongoing and continued compliance with the NFIP was included in each CPE. 3.2.4 Phase 3: Develop the Mitigation Plan Steps 6 and 7: Set Goals and Review Possible Activities AMEC facilitated brainstorming and discussion sessions with the CPSs that described the purpose and the process of developing updated planning goals and objectives, a comprehensive range of mitigation alternatives, and a method of selecting and defending recommended mitigation actions using a series of selection criteria. The results of this collaborative process, and a more detailed description of the process followed, are captured in Chapter 5 Mitigation Strategy. Each CPE provided the recommended action item details, including a description of the action,who is responsible for implementing it, and a timeframe for completion. • As part of the update process, the MCPC/CPS groups were provided a planning tool to track the progress of implementation, distributed at the 2009 kick-off meetings. During subsequent CPS and MCPC meetings the committee discussed the progress on the existing objectives in the 2004 plan, including the challenges for implementing them. In some cases, existing actions at the county and jurisdictional level remained to be implemented. These were updated and revised as necessary and are carried forward in this plan, where applicable. Progress on each objective is noted in each CPE. Where progress has been made and a project completed, these have been preserved in the plan as record of progress. There are several examples of successful implementation between 2004-2009, including additional "Storm Ready" counties, additional participation in the NFIP and increased flood insurance policies, and public awareness campaigns. Additionally the region has been active with projects related to outdoor warning sirens, flood control, shelters, NOAA all-hazards radio repeaters, NOAA radios, and the use of the readynortheast.org website for public information. These success stories are discussed in more detail in Chapter 5, with additional detail on the process for tracking progress. Step 8: Draft an Action Plan Based on input from the MCPC and CPSs regarding the draft risk assessment and the goals and activities identified in Planning Steps 6 and 7, TMAC produced a complete first draft of the plan. This complete draft was distributed for review and comment. Other agencies were invited to comment on this draft as well. MCPC and agency comments were integrated into the second • Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.14 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • draft, which was advertised and distributed to collect public input and comments. AMEC integrated comments and issues from the public, as appropriate, along with additional internal review comments and produced a final draft for the Colorado Division of Emergency Management and FEMA Region VIII to review and approve, contingent upon final adoption by the governing boards of each participating jurisdiction. 3.2.5 Phase 4: Implement the Plan and Monitor Progress Step 9: Adopt the Plan In order to secure buy-in and officially implement the plan, the plan was adopted by the governing boards of each participating jurisdiction on the dates included in the adoption resolutions in Appendix D Plan Adoption. Following conditional approval by FEMA Region VIII of the 2009 updated plan the participating jurisdictions will again re-adopt this plan. Step 10: Implement, Evaluate, and Revise the Plan The true worth of any mitigation plan is in the effectiveness of its implementation. Up to this point in the planning process, all of the planning efforts have been directed at researching data, coordinating input from participating entities, and developing appropriate mitigation actions. Each recommended action includes key descriptors, such as a lead manager and possible funding • sources, to help initiate implementation. An overall implementation strategy is described in Chapter 6 Plan Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance. Finally, there are numerous organizations within the region whose goals and interests interface with hazard mitigation. Coordination with these other planning efforts, as addressed in Planning Step 3, is paramount to the ongoing success of this plan and mitigation in the region and is addressed further in Chapter 6. A plan update and maintenance schedule and a strategy for continued public involvement are also included in Chapter 6. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 3.15 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • 4 RISK ASSESSMENT "44 CFR Requirement 201.6(c)(2): [The plan shall include] a risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to reduce the losses from identified hazards. Local risk assessments must provide sufficient information to enable the jurisdiction to identify and prioritize appropriate mitigation actions to reduce losses from identified hazards. As defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), risk is a combination of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. "It is the impact that a hazard would have on people, services, facilities, and structures in a community and refers to the likelihood of a hazard event resulting in an adverse condition that causes injury or damage." The risk assessment process identifies and profiles relevant hazards and assesses the exposure of lives, property, and infrastructure to these hazards. The process allows for a better understanding of a jurisdiction's potential risk to natural hazards and provides a framework for developing and prioritizing mitigation actions to reduce risk from future hazard events. This risk assessment followed the methodology described in the FEMA publication Understanding Your Risks—Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses(2002), which breaks the assessment down to a four-step process: • 1) Identify Hazards 2) Profile Hazard Events 3) Inventory Assets 4) Estimate Losses Data collected through this process has been incorporated into the following sections of this chapter: • Section 4.1 Hazard Identification identifies the hazards that threaten the planning area and describes why some hazards have been omitted from further consideration. • Section 4.2 Hazard Profiles discusses the nature of each hazard, describes previous occurrences of hazard events and the likelihood of future occurrences, and past and potential impacts to the planning area. • Section 4.3 Vulnerability Assessment provides an overview of the region's total exposure to natural hazards, considering assets at risk. This section includes an overview of methodologies for estimating potential losses for the hazards, and how future development trends may increase or decrease vulnerability. • County Planning Elements discusses each participating county's individual natural hazard summary, hazard history, and overall exposure to natural hazards based on an asset inventory. While not required by FEMA, the Northeast Colorado Multi-County Planning Committee (MCPC) also conducted a mitigation capability assessment, which inventoried • existing mitigation activities and existing policies, regulations, and plans pertaining to Northeast Colorado FINAL 1 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 mitigation and affecting net vulnerability. In addition the County Planning Elements provide an estimate of losses to the more significant hazards relative to the specific County. Examples include flooding,wildfire, dam failures, or severe winter storms. 4.1 Hazard Identification Requirement§201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the type...of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. During the initial planning process, conducted in 2004, the Northeast Colorado Multi-County Planning Committee (MCPC) conducted a hazard identification study to determine what hazards potentially threatened the planning area. The 2009 Update process reviewed these findings for applicability and included new event data, or further updated information for existing hazards, as well as profiling additional hazards not documented in the original planning process. The hazard identification process included gathering feedback from each of the County Planning Subcommittees (CPS). 4.1.1 Results and Methodology During the 2009 update, the MCPC committee was reconvened. During the initial kickoff meeting, a list of all hazards previously included in the 2004 Plan was cross-referenced with the • hazards list provided by FEMA in the Local Multi-Hazard Mitigation Planning Guidance document, issued July 1, 2008. The list was evaluated for geographic relevance and the hazards of avalanche, costal erosion, costal storms, hurricanes, and volcanoes were eliminated. The MCPC committee then brainstormed additional hazards to include in order to expand the list created in 2004. This process was repeated at each of the CPS kickoff meetings. As a result of these meetings, the following hazards were added: the dam failures profile was expanded to include levees, dust storms were added to the windblown hazards profile, and the biological hazards profile was expanded with zoonotic diseases. New profiles were created for lightning, fog, and land subsidence. The hazards evaluated in this plan, therefore, are those that have occurred historically or have the potential to cause significant human and/or monetary losses in the future and are limited to hazards which occur naturally. The following hazards, listed alphabetically, were identified and investigated for the 2009 Northeast Colorado All-Hazards Region Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan Update: • Northeast Colorado FINAL 2 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • • Biological Hazards • Land Subsidence • Blizzards and Severe Winter Storms • Landslide • Dam Failures and Levee Failures • Lightning • Drought • Noxious Weeds • Earthquake • Straight-Line Winds • Flooding • Temperature Extremes • Fog • Tornados • Hailstorms • Wildland/Grassland Fires The worksheet below was completed, based in part on the risk assessment, to identify and rate the significance of a variety of possible hazards. Significance was measured in general terms, focusing on key criteria such as the likelihood of the event, past occurrences, spatial extent, and damage and casualty potential. The worksheet reflects the regional assessments. Individual county assessments are located in each county planning element, and may reflect higher or lower assessments, based on the particular exposures, geography, and vulnerabilities of the area. Only the more significant hazards (high or medium) have a more detailed hazard profile and are analyzed further in Section 4.3 Vulnerability Assessment (to the extent possible). • • Northeast Colorado FINAL 3 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Table 4.1. Northeast Colorado All-Hazards Region Hazards Identification Worksheet Probability of Hazard Geographic Future Magnitude/Severity Significance Extent Occurrences Biological Hazards Pestilence Extensive Occasional Limited Medium Plague' Limited Highly Likely Critical Medium Blizzards&Severe Winter Extensive Likely Critical High Storms Dam Failures&Levee Significant Likely Critical High Failures Drought Extensive Likely Critical High Earthquake Limited Occasional Limited Low Flooding Significant Likely Limited High Fog Significant Likely Negligible Low Hailstorms Extensive Highly Likely Critical High Land Subsidence Limited Occasional Limited Low Landslides Limited Occasional Negligible Low Lightning Extensive Highly Likely Limited Medium Noxious Weeds Extensive Highly Likely Negligible Low • Straight-Line Winds Extensive Highly Likely Critical High Temperature Extremes Extensive Highly Likely Limited Low Tornados Significant Highly Likely Critical High Wildland&Grassland Fires Extensive Highly Likely Limited High 'Some zonotic hazards have higher or lower ratings than those reflected here,based on individual datasets. Geographic Extent Magnitude/Severity Limited:Less than 10%of planning area Catastrophic—More than 50 percent of property severely damaged; Significant: 10-50%of planning area shutdown of facilities for more than 30 days;and/or multiple deaths Extensive:50-100%of planning area Critical-25-50 percent of property severely damaged;shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks;and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability Probability of Future Occurrences Limited-10-25 percent of property severely damaged;shutdown of Highly Likely:Near 100%chance of occurrence in next facilities for more than a week;and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not year,or happens every year. result in permanent disability Likely:Between 10 and 100%chance of occurrence in Negligible—Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged, next year,or has a recurrence interval of 10 years or shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours;and/or less. injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid Occasional:Between 1 and 10%chance of occurrence in the next year,or has a recurrence interval of 11 to 100 Significance years. Low:minimal potential impact Unlikely:Less than 1%chance of occurrence in next 100 Medium:moderate potential impact years,or has a recurrence interval of greater than every High:widespread potential impact 100 years. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 4 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • 4.1.2 Disaster Declaration History Federal and/or state disaster declarations histories help document past occurrences of hazards within the planning area. Disaster declarations are granted when the magnitude and severity impact of the event surpasses the ability of the local government to respond and recover. Disaster assistance is supplemental and sequential. When the local government's response capacity is surpassed, a state disaster declaration may be issued, allowing for the provision of state assistance. Should the severity of the disaster event surpass both the local and state government response capacity, a federal emergency or disaster declaration may be issued, allowing for the provision of federal disaster assistance. Generally, the federal government issues disaster declarations through FEMA. However, federal assistance may also come from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Small Business Association (SBA), and other government agencies such as the Fire Management Assistance Grant Program. FEMA also issues emergency declarations, which are more limited in scope and without the long-term federal recovery programs of major disaster declarations. The quantity and types of damage are the determining factors. A USDA declaration will result in the implementation of the Emergency Loan Program through the Farm Services Agency. This program enables eligible farmers and ranchers in the affected county as well as contiguous counties to apply for low interest loans. A USDA declaration will automatically follow a major disaster declaration for counties designated major disaster areas and • those that are contiguous to declared counties, including those that are across state lines. As part of an agreement with the USDA, the SBA offers low interest loans for eligible businesses that suffer economic losses in declared and contiguous counties that have been declared by the USDA.These loans are referred to as Economic Injury Disaster Loans. The Fire Management Assistance Grant Program provides funding "for the mitigation, management, and control of fires on publicly or privately owned forests or grasslands, which threaten such destruction as would constitute a major disaster."' The quantity and types of damages, as well as the type of event, determine the source of federal aid. Figure 4.1, from the FEMA website, displays the number of Presidential (FEMA) Disaster Declarations from 1964 to 2007 by FEMA Region. Colorado is located in Region 8. This map indicates that: • Weld County received between 7 and 9 Presidential Disaster Declarations • Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, and Yuma Counties each received between 1 and 6 Presidential Disaster Declarations • t FEMA, Fire Management Assistance Grant Program Webpage,modified December 6,2006. Available online at littp://www.fema.gov/government/grant/fmagp/index.shtm,last accessed April 13, 2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 5 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.1 . Presidential Disaster Declarations, December 24, 1964 - March 3, 2007 PRESIDENTIAL DISASTER DECLARATIONS December 24, 1964 hi March 3, 2007 FEMA REGION X FEMA R£G10N FEN*REGION I 4' FEMA REGION VIII PIMAREGI NY .. 1...- .- . s. PA ` eV: ..,� v .w -.. .w .4l.Ia--a. M knsl•. L.N•V.M.ti I je 4••••• use .• I ♦ .1g♦_-sM 1 `1u:. .1i 1 ra: "w..•• O 11. 1.sl� .sf1 1 ..•14K S Sat JRMC• N t C•.� r , lip 1l oc —g Mal rove 1 Ml en l i1 tl 1 l }s fJ �� 5 11 s. -, . .. + 1 It s a re .4. elI -r -• i ' , et \ . N. --- j, v. ' tf - wog. .« .. . FE MA REGION IX I . V.. - r r) w+� • ..vPnl.��` 11 "7" ."Ta./a�` '• T 11 aww ,. .�.-_.-^ _ FLOOD TOTAL.IM - • - • ' w i . I N TOTAL.IN TINT il]11 1 f slam is IORNAI:tl 17 `l ..nuu. I.c.1�M8b slit t33) I 11 \li tins, 5 M r •.--4 1.81.1 a KE STORM • 1 _-. M MI 1.11RIC ! •�•' aasatros n " III••••••'IM ♦ ♦ HIM ay q,\ `, twig T ..�. .n �lg.1s 1NB >«t_ ff, 1 aiL nu FLOOD ""4 ... .rruM Y. env.y:.I . M w.N1.• l' SEVERE 1n SWIM I.«. TOTAL:,+I mawTo i IAN PIMA RlGWNN ' w Mk •XN " FEMA `N.... /hugs waling an.it QS's.l 1 tit avni4,, •onus.IY/ Figure 4.2 provides information on federal emergencies and disasters declared in the Northeast Colorado All-Hazards Region between 1965 and 2008. The FEMA website also offers a list of Fire Management Assistance Declarations, with county-specific information available for the majority of the declarations listed. Where details are available, the counties located in Northeast Colorado are listed. Table 4.2. Northeast Colorado All-Hazards Region Disaster and Emergency Declarations, 1965-2008 Year Declaring Jurisdiction Counties Affected Disaster Type 2008 USDA Kit Carson Drought, Excessive Heat, Hail, High Winds 2008 USDA Lincoln, Weld Hail 2008 USDA Yuma Drought Conditions and Grasshopper Infestations • 2008 Federal- Major Disaster Weld Severe Storms and Tornados Northeast Colorado FINAL 6 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Year Declaring Jurisdiction Counties Affected Disaster Type 2007 Federal-Emergency Cheyenne,Washington Snow 2005 Federal-Emergency All Hurricane Katrina Evacuation 2003 Federal-Emergency Morgan,Weld Snow 2002 Federal-Major Disaster Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Wildfires Washington,Weld,Yuma 2001 Federal-Major Disaster All but Kit Carson Severe Storms 1999 Federal-Major Disaster Weld Flooding Kit Carson, Phillips, Sedgwick, Drought 1990 USDA Washington,Weld, Yuma g 1990 State Lincoln Tornado 1986 State Weld Winter Storm 1982 State Weld Winter Storm 1981 State Morgan, Phillips,Sedgwick, Grasshopper Plague Washington, Yuma 1980 State Weld Flood 1980 State Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Grasshopper Plague Washington 1973 Federal Weld Flooding and Dam Failure 1969 Federal Sedgwick,Washington,Yuma Flooding 1965 Federal Cheyenne Flooding • Source:2008 Colorado State Hazard Mitigation Plan;Colorado Office of Emergency Management;Federal Emergency Management Agency,PERI Presidential Disaster Declaration Site;U.S.Department of Agriculture. 4.1.3 Hazards Not Included Other hazards were discussed by the MCPC and CPS groups but ultimately not included in this plan. Thunderstorms are not profiled as individual hazards, but are instead recognized for the contributing role in the flood, lightning, hail, and windstorm hazards, and addressed accordingly in those hazard profiles. Other hazards were excluded because they do not occur in the planning region and include avalanche, coastal erosion, coastal storms, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes. One hazard that was not profiled, but could be worthy of investigation in a future update are windblown deposits. Areas of Logan, Yuma, Philips and Sedgwick counties have "sand hills" which are basically geologically recent sand dunes covered with sparse vegetation. These could potentially become windblown deposits and impact roads and property if climate change or severe drought affect the vegetation that currently stabilizes them. Additionally, potential man-made or technological hazards such as hazardous materials, terrorism, airplane crashes, damage to gas or oil pipelines, or the potential effects of and impacts due to the presence of missile silos are not profiled in this plan. Other man-made hazards include the potential of fire or explosions in grain elevators and train derailments and associated spills and fires, which is something that many of the towns in the Region are potentially at risk to. While biological hazards are included, pandemic flu, including viruses such as the H1N1, are not. This decision was formulated after extensive discussion among CPS members and finally of the larger MCPC. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 7 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • It was determined that the scope of this plan was to remain focused on natural hazards and that man-made or technological hazards were best addressed under alternative planning efforts, such as the pandemic flu planning efforts active in the Region. • • Northeast Colorado FINAL 8 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • 4.2 Hazard Profiles Requirement§201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the...location and extent of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. The plan shall include information on previous occurrences of hazard events and on the probability of future hazard events. The hazards identified in Section 4.1 Hazard Identification are profiled individually in this section in alphabetical order. Much of the profile information came from the same sources used to initially identify the hazards. 4.2.1 Profile Methodology Each hazard is profiled in a similar format that is described below: Description This subsection gives a generic description of the hazard and associated problems, followed by details on the hazard specific to each county in the planning area. Geographic Extent • This subsection discusses which areas of the county are most likely to be affected by a hazard event. The extent or location of the hazard within or near the regional planning area is also included here. • Limited—Less than 10 percent of planning area • Significant-10-50 percent of planning area • Extensive-50-100 percent of planning area Previous Occurrences This subsection contains an overview of information on historic incidents, including major incident impacts where known. Information provided by the MCPC is included here along with information from other data sources. Each County Planning Element contains more detail on the previous hazard occurrences. Probability of Future Occurrences The frequency of past events is used in this subsection to gauge the likelihood of future occurrences. Based on historical data, the likelihood of future occurrences is categorized into one of the following classifications: • Highly Likely—Near 100 percent chance of occurrence in next year, or happens every year. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 9 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • • Likely—Between 10 and 100 percent chance of occurrence in next year, or has a recurrence interval of 10 years or less. • Occasional—Between 1 and 10 percent chance of occurrence in the next year, or has a recurrence interval of 11 to 100 years. • Unlikely—Less than 1 percent chance of occurrence in next 100 years, or has a recurrence interval of greater than every 100 years. The frequency, or chance of occurrence, was calculated, where possible, based on existing data. Frequency was determined by dividing the number of events observed by the number of years and multiplying by 100. This gave the percent chance of the event happening in any given year. Example: Three droughts over a 30-year period equates to a 10 percent chance of that hazard occurring in any given year. Magnitude/Severity This subsection summarizes the magnitude and severity of a hazard event based largely on previous occurrences and specific aspects of risk as it relates to the planning area. Magnitude and severity is classified in the following manner: • Catastrophic—More than 50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than 30 days; and/or multiple deaths a • Critical-25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability • Limited-10-25 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not result in permanent disability • Negligible—Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged, shutdown of facilities and services for less than 24 hours; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable with first aid Overall Hazard Significance Overall vulnerability and potential impact of each hazard is summarized in this subsection, based on probability of future occurrence, magnitude of previous occurrences, and assessments of public safety risk and threat to property and infrastructure. 4111 Northeast Colorado FINAL 10 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 4.2.2 Biological Hazards Description Biological hazards encompass a wide range of potential hazards, including rodents and insect infestations (pestilence) and the zoonotic diseases spread by insects or wildlife (plague). Pestilence hazards impact crops and the economic revenues derived from them, as well as causing secondary impacts on livestock (by damaging food sources) and on property and materials by spreading disease, polluting water sources, or sometimes damaging machinery and infrastructure. Plague hazards impact both human and animal populations, and may result in permanent injury, disability, or death. Some diseases, when documented in a livestock population, require the destruction of the entire herd of population to prevent transmission to humans. This has an enormous financial impact on the ranching and livestock industries. Additionally, populations impacted by disease are unable to work for periods of time, which has a secondary fiscal impact on the area. This hazard is not generally considered for profiling in mitigation plans; however, the hazard was included in the original planning process, and the MCPC felt that the historical and current impact of these hazards on the residents of the planning region, this section required additional consideration during the update process. Pestilence Rodent and insect infestations threaten crops, which is one of the primary industries in the planning region. Rodents, such as mice and rabbits, damage crops in all stages of the production process. Young plants are vulnerable to the rodents, who feed on them. Harvested and stored crops may be contaminated by rodents burrowing into storage units, either to feed on the materials or create nests during winter months. The nature of the infestations makes tracking statistical data nearly impossible. Variables include the geographic distribution of the rodents and the crops, the number of rodents in the area, and the reproduction rates relative to the amount of natural food resources available. The presence of predators, such as foxes, snakes, and hawks, also impacts the potential datasets. As such, historical recollection provides the majority of the hazard profile's content. Insect plagues also cause significant damage to crops in the region. Most losses occur in the fall because of freezing temperatures. Grasshoppers move from the range into the crop. The last major grasshopper infestation in the United States occurred in the 1930s. Following this disaster, it was decided that local control of grasshopper outbreaks were insufficient and that regional coordination was required. The 1934 Congress charged the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) with controlling grasshoppers on federal rangeland. Later, in 1987, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), which is part of the USDA, created the Grasshopper Integrated Pest Management (GHIPM) Project to develop new technologies for managing grasshopper populations. Subsequent grasshopper infestations in the 1950s, 1980s, and predicted infestations for the early 2000s further underscore the importance of mitigating this insect-driven Northeast Colorado FINAL 11 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • hazard. In 2009, the planning area has experienced the highest grasshopper infestation since 2002-2003. Similar insect hazards include locusts, aphids, and bark beetle plagues. Plague In the predominately agricultural region that makes up the planning region, zoonotic diseases are also a significant hazard to the population and livestock of the area. Zoonotic diseases are those which can be transmitted from animals and humans. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDHPE) indicates that the most common of these diseases in Colorado are hantavirus, plague, rabies, tularemia, West Nile Virus (WNV) (and other mosquito borne diseases) and various tick-borne diseases. It is important to realize that this plan does not examine pandemic contingencies, either of these diseases or of other potentially pandemic outbreaks, but instead focuses on examining the risk of a normal hazard occurrence. Hantavirus is spread through the saliva, urine, and feces of the deer mouse and is caused by the Sin Nombre virus. Contamination is only possible when humans come into direct contact with the rodents or dust and feces contaminated by the mice. Hantavirus was initially identified in the Four Corners region of the United States in 1985. Mitigation of the disease includes adequate sanitation and use of respiratory and eye protection when working in areas where exposure may occur, including barns, hay lots, basements, and attics.2 • Several CPS mentioned plague as an important zoonotic disease to include in the 2009 update. Plague is a rodent disease transmitted to humans by flea bites, and is widespread in the western United States. Plague may also infect felines. The disease has epidemic histories, most famously as the "Black Death" plagues of the Middle Ages. The disease is easily mitigated through improved sanitation and rat control; and when detected early, the plague can be treated. However, the disease may still prove fatal if not treated quickly enough. Tularemia is commonly called "rabbit fever," though it occurs in over a hundred species of wild animals, birds, and insects. Transmission is most common when ticks bite infected animals, particularly rabbits and rodents, and then transfer the disease via human bites. The bacteria may also be inhaled or ingested via the consumption of infected meat or food and water contaminated with the urine from infected animals. Tularemia is not currently transmissible via human-to- human contact, but the disease is easily aerosolized. For this reason, the disease is considered a potential bioterrorism agent and falls under national pharmaceutical stockpile regulations. In addition, corpses who have not been treated or were treated for less than 48 hours should be considered contagious and appropriate caution and equipment should be utilized in disposing of remains, both human and animal.3 Tularemia is easily mitigated through appropriate hygiene, 2 Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment,Hantavirus Webpage. Available online at http://www.cdphe.state.co.us/dc/Zoonosis/hanta/index.html last accessed July 13, 2009. 3 Ibid.,Infection Control Webpage. Available online at http://infectioncontrol.ucsfmedicalcenter.org/BT_FACTSHEETS/TULAREMIA%20GUIDELINES.pdf last • accessed July 13,2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 12 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • limitation of contact between human and rodent populations, and appropriate sanitation of water and food supplies, particularly local garden produce.4 Of all the zoonotic diseases affecting the northeastern region of Colorado, the most recent, and one of the most deadly, is the West Nile Virus (WNV). The disease, which is spread through mosquito bites, can be contracted by birds, humans, horses, cattle, and other livestock. Symptoms may include headaches, fever, malaise, encephalitis, and death, although not all infected individuals exhibit symptoms. There is no treatment for the virus except supportive care.5 The Colorado Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance Program, local health departments, and the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment have conducted WNV surveillance since 2001.6 Many resources exist for local communities to mitigate the risk of WNV. Online resources include the "Fight the Bite" website (www.fightthebitecolorado.com), which provides tips and tools for local homeowners to mitigate mosquito populations on private property. Other mitigation efforts include spraying, use of personal pesticide sprays, avoiding outdoor activities during dawn and dusk, and draining bodies of water that have little or no circulation. Geographic Extent Pestilence Rodents such as mice, rats, and rabbits, are found across the entire planning region, as are • insects. The presence of the rodents and insects is a consistent feature, with normal population density flows following the seasonal patterns. However, when density of these populations exceeds the capacity of the ecosystem, agricultural industries such as crops and the health of livestock are threatened. As discussed above, the ability to model these trends is difficult and inconsistent. Figure 4.2 depicts a sample grasshopper density map at a point in time for Colorado, which demonstrates how varying densities pose different threats. However, it is likely that significant portions of the planning region will be impacted simultaneously, though the degree of severity may vary. Therefore, pestilence hazards have a geographic extent rating of extensive. 4 Ibid., Tularemia Webpage. Available online at http://www.cdphe.state.co.us/do/Zoonosis/tularemia/index.html last accessed July 13, 2009. 5 CDPHE, West Nile Webpage.Available online at http://www.cdphe.state.co.us/do/Zoonosis/wnv/westnilefaq.html • last accessed July 13, 2009. 6 Ibid. Northeast Colorado FINAL 13 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.2. Grasshopper Density Map USDA ANSIMINO SIM Colorado Density 'o r. se jut Grasshoppers / Yard 1998 Adult Survey. .iip I , , , _, : . -_, ,,_. ti , ..... 15 + (867,088 acres) 12 to 15 (1 ,016,586 acres) ir 8 to 12 (2,571 ,366 acres) II: 5 to 8 (7,205,804 acres) M Se 3 to 5 (6,667,611 acres) a 1 I 0 to 3 (19,644,037 acres) Source: USDA Plague Each of the zoonotic diseases discussed in this profile have a global incidence history. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment considers the specifically profiled diseases to be the most common in the State. Diseases are difficult to categorize based on • geographic extent alone. The entire planning area is at risk to an occurrence of any of the diseases, alone or in concurrence with other outbreaks. The affected population will rarely be uniform, however, as the current epidemiologic record indicates. Therefore, the geographic extent rating for plague is limited. Previous Occurrences Pestilence On December 29, 1924, the Colorado Governor declared a "Hunt Day" targeting the rabbits that were causing devastating damage to crops across the planning area. In one day, 125,000 rabbits were killed in a six-county area (and 4,000 were shipped to Denver to feed the needy) . In 1935, 15,000 rabbits were killed in Sedgwick County alone. Photos of pick-up trucks piled high with the bounty still adorn the walls of local historic societies, barbershops, and drug stores. There is some documentation of similar hunts in earlier years (around 1900) that were organized to rid the fields of roving bands of coyotes. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 14 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.3. Historical Photograph of a Rabbit Hunt's Yield r 11 et . rj : it elr Y,g ;y •..r. te III ~an Al • • j i 7 • - t res eu��` •� 1 a 1 411 "Are rabbits beet really lucky," Source: Unknown. Two state disaster declarations were made for grasshopper plagues and the impact on agriculture in 1980 and 1981 . In 1931 , 1937, and 1958 the sugar beet crop in the community of Ovid was completely lost to grasshoppers. During the 2009 update of this plan conditions were prime for • another massive grasshopper plague, according to local agricultural extension officers. Timely rains and aggressive spraying ultimately helped mitigate the problem. Plague Between January 1985 (when the disease was first documented) and July 2007, only three cases of hantavirus have been reported in the planning area. All three cases were non-fatal, and there is not a correlation between the manifestation of the disease in the patient and the location of exposure. Statewide, there have been 67 total cases, 25 of which were fatal. Bubonic plague records are only available on a state-wide basis. Between 1957 and 2005, 54 cases of plague have been documented in Colorado and nine cases were fatal.7 Statistics for tularemia cases are only available on a state-wide basis. Between 1975 and 2006, 204 cases were reported and fatality rates were not available. In 2003, Colorado had the most confirmed cases of WNV in the United States, with 2, 134 confirmed diagnoses and 524 within the 10 county planning area studied in the original plan. As the disease continued to spread west, the rate of infection also followed into previously- unexposed populations. In 2008, California reported the most human cases (440), Arizona • 7 CDPHE, Plague Webpage. Available online at http://www.cdphe.state.co.us/dc/Zoonosis/plague/index.html last accessed July 13, 2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 15 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • reported the second highest counts (114), and Colorado reported the third highest counts at 718 As of April 2009, there have been 12 human deaths in the 10 county planning area. Table 4.3. Human West Nile Virus Cases from 2003-2008 (Illnesses/Deaths) County 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Cheyenne 4/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 2/0 0/0 Kit Carson 5/0 2/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 Lincoln 8/2 0/0 0/0 0/0 3/0 0/0 Logan 84/2 5/0 4/0 7/0 9/0 2/0 Morgan 61/0 1/0 4/1 2/0 14/0 2/0 Phillips 23/0 2/0 4/0 1/0 2/0 1/0 Sedgwick 13/0 1/0 5/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 Washington 10/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 3/0 0/0 Weld 402/6 8/0 17/0 68/1 98/0 19/0 Yuma 17/0 0/0 2/0 1/0 5/0 1/0 10 County Total 627/10 19/0 36/1 79/1 136/0 25/0 Source:Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment Probability of Future Occurrences • Pestilence While the population of rodents and insects in the region is a yearly occurrence, this alone cannot describe the probability of future occurrences. These populations are part of the natural ecosystem of the region and are expected in certain quantities each year. The presence of such populations only becomes a hazard when the population number reaches a number greater than the surrounding ecosystem can support, driving the rodents and/or insects to severely damage crops and/or livestock. It is difficult to quantify when this may become an issue, as the data for tracking such events is not always available. Based on the information collected in this plan, there probability is occasional, as the events have recurrence interval that falls between 11 and 100 years. Plague Similar to infestations, the calculation for future occurrence of the diseases profiled here must first be considered in light of circumstances. The diseases are naturally occurring in the populations of animals which always reside in the region. In addition, this plan is not examining the pandemic potential of these diseases, but instead examines when these diseases manifest in • 8 Center for Disease Control.Final 200E West Nile Virus Activity in the United States.Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/westnile/Mapsactivity/surv&contro108Maps.htm last accessed July 13, 2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 16 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 severe injury or fatalities among humans. It is best to look at the probability of future occurrence for each disease: Hantavirus The occurrence rating is 12.5%, with 0 documented fatalities in the planning region, and merits a probability rating of occasional. Bubonic Plague: The occurrence rating for the state is 100%, with at least 5 expected cases per year, and the fatal occurrence rating of 17.6%. The probability rating for illness, then, is highly likely. The probability rating for a fatal case in a given year is likely. Region-specific statistics are not available. Tularemia: The occurrence rating for the state is 100%, with an expected 6.5 cases per year. No fatality statistics are available. Therefore, the probability rating is highly likely on a state-wide basis. Region-specific statistics are not available. West Nile Virus The region has experienced 922 reported illnesses in the last five years, for an occurrence rating of 100%, or an expected 185 cases per year and results in a probability rating of highly likely. 12 fatal cases have been reported over a five-year period, for an occurrence rating of 100% and an expected 2.5 fatalities per year in the region. This results in a probability rating of highly likely. Because West Nile Virus is the most concerning disease in the region, this is the probability of occurrence that will be used in the overall hazard summary. . Magnitude/Severity Pestilence Without better data to evaluate the damages caused by infestations of insects and rodents, it is difficult to assess the magnitude and severity of the hazard. However, two disasters have been declared for grasshopper plagues in the region, and the topic was discussed at several committee planning meetings. Estimates of potential damages were provided, ranging from historical accounts with 100% loss of crops, to more limited damages that fall between a 10 and 25% damage ratio. No fatalities or serious injuries are generally associated with these events; however the long-term economic impacts may have secondary impacts on health and population trends. Based on this discussion, the most reasonable rating of magnitude and severity is limited, with the knowledge that extreme events may cause catastrophic damage. Further studies on these hazards should be conducted in the future to better assess the potential severity of the events. Plague Usually, disease does not directly cause property damages or losses. Some zoonotic diseases may impact livestock, which may have a significant impact on the economics of the industry. Other diseases impact the human population, which may have secondary impacts on the production of materials, goods, and services while the population is ill. The most common • method of evaluating the magnitude and severity of a disease, however, is to examine how many Northeast Colorado FINAL 17 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • people are likely to fall ill, and of those, how many are likely to die. In a non-pandemic setting, the majority of the illnesses discussed in this profile are rated as limited, because they affect a smaller portion of the population and are usually very treatable. The exception, based on available data, is WNV, which is rated as critical because of the high number of infected cases. While the fatality rate remains fairly low, the disease is not easily treated as only supportive care is available to those who fall ill. For these reasons, WNV merits a higher severity rating than the other zoonotic diseases profiled in this chapter and, similar to the risk of future occurrence methodology, will serve as the overall rating for the hazard comparison. Overall Hazard Significance Pestilence The impact of infestations on crops and livestock has a catastrophic potential, though the more common occurrences are generally milder and more limited. The mitigation responses to these hazards range in cost and effectiveness. The events are considered occasional hazards, though they have an extensive geographic impact. While the hazards should be considered and mitigated where possible, they are probably not the highest priority for the region, and are assigned a medium rating. Plague • Similar to the infestation ratings, plagues hold a critical potential risk to both livestock and human lives under limited occurrence ratings. However, at a yearly occurrence (or highly likely rating), the diseases generally manifest at a significantly lower magnitude and severity rating of limited. The geographic distribution of the diseases are driven more by the animal carriers and transmissibility of the agent than of the location of ill populations, which indicates the rating is extensive. Pandemic planning, which exceeds the scope of this plan, better addresses the limited critical potentials of plague events. For the more common occurrences, standard mitigation measures reduce the number of cases. Many of the diseases are treatable, and often entirely avoidable. Therefore, the risk and vulnerability levels of the events are fairly low. While mitigation considerations should continue, these hazards are probably not the highest priorities for the region, and are assigned a medium rating. 4.2.3 Blizzards and Severe Winter Storms Description Heavy snow, ice, severe winter storms, and blizzards are common occurrences in Colorado. These hazards have caused more state and federal disaster declarations than any other hazard in • Northeast Colorado FINAL 18 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • the Northeastern Colorado region. The National Weather Service Glossary defines common winter storm characteristics as follows:9 • Blizzard: A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer: — Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and — Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than 'A mile). • Heavy Snow: This generally means: — snowfall accumulating to 4" or more in depth in 12 hours or less; or — snowfall accumulating to 6" or more in depth in 24 hours or less. — In forecasts, snowfall amounts are expressed as a range of values, e.g., "8 to 12 inches." However, in heavy snow situations where there is considerable uncertainty concerning the range of values, more appropriate phrases are used, such as "...up to 12 inches..." or alternatively "...8 inches or more..." • Ice Storm: An ice storm is used to describe occasions when damaging accumulations of ice are expected during freezing rain situations. Significant accumulations of ice pull down trees and utility lines resulting in loss of power and communication. These accumulations of ice make walking and driving extremely dangerous. Significant ice accumulations are usually accumulations of 1/4" or greater. • In the planning region blizzards and severe winter storms are often exacerbated by high winds that frequently blow across the relatively flat geography of the planning area. It is often the blowing and drifting snow, more so than the amount, which causes problems in the planning region. Geographic Extent Winter storms are a yearly feature of the Colorado climate and occur across the entire state. The size of such events varies and may range in size from isolated (impacting only a portion of a county) to statewide. Generally, severe winter storm events are considered to be a regional occurrence, impacting multiple counties simultaneously and for extended time periods. The geographic rating, then, is categorized as extensive. Previous Occurrences The following table depicts the number of snow and ice storm events in each of the participating counties between 1950 and 2008 as captured in the NCDC Database. The numbers are not a perfect representation of events, as the storms are often regional and impact several counties • 9 National Weather Service"National Weather Service Glossary Website". Available online at http://www.weather.gov/glossary/,last accessed April 13,2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 19 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • simultaneously. This margin of error should be considered when calculating the probability of future occurrence. Table 4.4. Snow and Ice Storm Occurrences per County, 1950-2008 County Occurrences Cheyenne 26 Kit Carson 28 Lincoln 12 Logan 17 Morgan 18 Phillips 11 Sedgwick 11 Washington 15 Weld 37 Yuma 24 10 County Total 199 Source:National Climatic Data Center • Some specific incidents have also been recorded here. As with the margin of error established above, not all of these storms impacted the entire region uniformly. However, examples for this section were selected because of their impact on a majority of the region. Specific storms which may have had an unusually high impact on a single county are located in the County Planning Elements. The incidents captured here are mostly derived from the National Climactic Data Center, with augmentation from other sources as noted. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 20 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.4. Blizzard of March 1977 - • , sit•e i ei sig •"T � • • it 11 61 se- 4'+t *t. I . A . iw ? j Source: The Range Ledger In January 2001 , strong winter storms brought a variety of winter weather effects to eastern Colorado, including freezing rain, drizzle, and snow. The storm caused several accidents before storms occurred during and US 385 were closed. Several other severe the winter as well. In March 2002, a large blizzard developed along the Front Range foothills and dropped heavy amounts of snow across the planning area. Snow totals ranged from five to seven inches, but the snow was particularly wet and heavy and caused damage to trees, plants, and building structures. The snowfall occurred over spring break for the University of Northern Colorado and Colorado State University, delaying the start of the term the next week and stranding students. On December 29, 2006, severe winter weather impacted the majority of eastern Colorado. This storm was actually the second severe storm in a week, and between two and three feet of snow fell, which set the snow totals in the top ten all-time highest storm totals. Freezing rains also occurred into Kansas, which increased ice accumulations, made cleanup more difficult, and prolonged the closure of major roadways. All roadways in the area were closed for some period of time during the storm event, and the Colorado Division of Emergency Management (CDEM) reported that the majority of local jurisdictions, in addition to the State government, were on snow-day schedules for the second time in one week. Significant closures of area airports prolonged travel delays, though many jurisdictions imposed public travel bans. The governor advised via television that all non-essential personnel remain at home. The National Guard air dropped hay for stranded cattle, and local shelters were set up for motorists and travelers stranded along highways. The storms resulted in a Federal Emergency Declaration for Cheyenne and Washington Counties, in addition to other counties outside the planning area. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 21 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • During early February 2008, a winter storm produced bands of six to ten inches of snow along eastern Colorado and into Kansas and Nebraska. Many severe winter storms were reported across eastern Colorado throughout the early part of 2008. While snow accumulation generally remained below six inches, the snow was often accompanied by freezing rain and drizzle or foggy conditions. Numerous counties reported accidents and fatal accidents as a result of these conditions. This emphasizes that even smaller-scale storms have a significant impact on the planning region. In March 2009 heavy snow accumulated during the morning commute of the Denver metro area, including southern Weld County and Greeley. Crashes in the region were reported along Interstate 76 near Hudson and U.S. Highway 85 near Platteville. While the snow itself impacted only a small portion of the planning area, the location and timing of the snow extended secondary effects into the region. Road closures, resource allocations and the delay of transportation, delivery or shipment of goods, including the mail, were all documented. Other 2009 storms, mostly in January and February, impacted the northeastern corner of the State more severely, causing roads to close from Nebraska and Kansas and creating the same impacts in a reverse order on the metro area. Probability of Future Occurrences Within the planning area there have been 199 snow and ice storms reported between 1950 and • 2008, a 58-year period. This equates to an average of 3.4 severe winter storm events each year and a probability of future occurrence rating of highly likely. However, this rating does not account for the overlap of a single storm into multiple counties. Therefore, an alternate calculation is also included in this process. By calculating the probability of future occurrences is calculated for each county, and then finding the average of those probabilities, a more realistic occurrence rating of 34.2%, and an occurrence rating of likely is established. As severe storm events, though frequent and anticipated, do not always occur, this rating is more consistent with the known hazard history. Magnitude/Severity The damages caused by severe winter storms and blizzards vary and are dependent on several factors: the duration of the storm; the geographic extent; the time of year; and the advance warning of the storm. Impacts from the storm dictate the magnitude of the event, emphasizing that how much snow may not always directly correlate to how bad the storm is. Damaged power lines and dangerous or impassable roadways may forestall the delivery of critical services such as medical and emergency assistance, the delivery of food supplies and medications, or even the provision of basic utilities such as heat and running water. When events happen with a long warning time, it is possible to pre-mitigate the effects of insufficient supply levels or to pre-test emergency generators, which may prevent some of the previously described impacts from occurring. Unanticipated storms increase the number of people stranded, both in cars and at • public locations, which may increase the number of injuries and deaths attributed to the event Northeast Colorado FINAL 22 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • (often caused by exposure) and place uneven and unanticipated strains on public sheltering capacities. The weight of the snow, driven by the water content of the fall, increases the potential for damages caused to structures and trees. Lighter snow caused by extreme cold increases the damages caused to livestock, agriculture and landscaping due to freezing conditions. Winter storms which go through periods of thaw and freeze prolong dangerous icy conditions, increasing the likelihood of frozen and damaged water pipes, impassable or dangerous roadways, damaged communication lines, or more extensive damages to infrastructure and structures caused by seeping water freezing under roofs, porches, patios, inside sidings, or causing damage to vehicles. The storms which have merited disaster declarations, from either a state or federal level, provide a useful dataset of potential magnitudes and severities. Damages from these storms generally do not exceed 50% of property severely damaged, but critical facilities are often limited in services or shut down for a period of time. Fatalities are anticipated, and injuries are generally documented both during the storm and as secondary affects from the cleanup efforts of the weather. Based on this, a magnitude severity rating of critical seems most appropriate. Overall Hazard Significance Blizzards and snow storms are expected components of the Colorado climate. Severe manifestations of these storms, however, are a significant hazard to the planning region. The • events may impact any portion of the region and, more often than not, impact the majority of the region simultaneously. The geographic extent of these events is clearly extensive. Severe events are not a yearly occurrence, but the chance of occurrence is close, and considered likely. The damages caused by the storms also vary, but are often debilitating for a community or county, or several combinations thereof, for several days. In severe instances, effects may extend for days or weeks, and overstretch local capabilities very quickly. The magnitude and severity of severe winter storms is critical, and this hazard should be considered a high priority for the planning region. 4.2.4 Dam and Levee Failures Description Dam failure occurs when the retention function of the dam is compromised, in part or in its entirety. Damage to a dam structure that may result in a failure may be caused by many sources. Possible damages include poor maintenance, age, animal incursion (particularly in earthen dams), erosion, and damages sustained as a result of seismological activity. A dam failure is not the only type of emergency associated with dams. Spillway discharges that are large enough to cause flooding in downstream areas of upstream flooding of dams due to backwater effects or • Northeast Colorado FINAL 23 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • high pool levels are both considered dam emergencies and may cause significant property damage and loss of life.f0 Dam failures result in a unique source of flash flooding, when a large amount of previously detained water is suddenly released into a previously dry area due to a failure in some way of the dam. Dams are classified into four classes. The 2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan defines Class I (High Hazard) dams as those rated based on an expected loss of human life, should the dam fail, and Class II (Significant Hazard) dams as those rated based on expected significant damage, but not loss of human life. Significant damage refers to structural damage where humans live, work, or recreate; or public or private facilities exclusive of unpaved roads and picnic areas. Damage refers to making the structures inhabitable or inoperable." l Privately owned Class I and II dams are required by Colorado regulations to have Emergency Action Plans (EAPs) in place.12 Federally-owned Class I dams are also required to have EAPs by Federal Regulations.13 According to the 2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan, all high-hazard dams in Colorado have EAPs in place, which provide for the emergency response procedures in the event of a dam emergency event. According to the National Performance of Dams Program (NPDP) database, housed in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University, there are 318 Class I dams in Colorado.14 Levees are defined by the Army Corps of Engineers as "earthen embankments whose primary • purpose is to furnish flood protection from seasonal high water for a few days or weeks a year. Levees are broadly classified as either urban or agricultural because of different requirements from each."15 Riverine levees are those built to protect from flooding of river ways, whereas coastal levees are those built to protect from coastal water flooding. Levee failures can occur when a flood occurs that exceeds the designed level of protection. In this case the levee may fail or be overtopped. Levees that are not maintained are at risk from failure due to erosion, rodent activity, or piping along roots from vegetation growing on the levee. Geographic Extent The map below displays the location of Class I (High hazard) and Class II (Significant Hazard) dams within the planning area. 13 US Army Corps of Engineers Flood Emergency Plans:Guidelines for Corps Dams. Hydrologic Engineering Center, (June 1980) p 4. "Colorado Office of Emergency Management,2008 Colorado State Hazard Mitigation Plan,p Hazards-54. 12 Further information regarding the regulations governing dams in the State of Colorado can be found in the"Guide to Construction and Administration of Dams in Colorado",available online at http://water.state.co.us/damsafety/damguide.pdf. 13 Dam Operations Management Policy,ER 1130-2-419. 14 National Performance of Dams Program,DPDP Dams Directory.Available online at http://npdp.stanford.edu/npdphome/damdir.htm.last accessed July 13,2009. • 15 U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,Levees Website:Last Updated October 16,2007. Available online at http://www.mvm.usace.army.mil/floodcontrolllevees/levees.htm,last accessed July 13,2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 24 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 iFigure 4.5. Class I and Class II Dams in Northeast Colorado WYOMING L NEBRASKA -_ • • A ( 1 i• • :, , \ \\\ \1 N' • I -\. L. t .� ~ .� ^ ► OGAN 1 • , f WELD �► T ,N.., . l _ ; 1.-... Vi\-1...\\../' u , SA " • ) \ .WAS MA NRi.i ADAMS Ty' -r-d. I w t . 73a - i , i ._I . ( • t , , _ N .. I •..,,3 A•1 3 ARAPAHO .,w4f, .rl/�AV'• ( i i I -- rieribehnta•••••a ,-----1°.; r ifil7iit DO LAS • ELBERT A .' • . _ /t,�i,G i 7/j J 4L? _ we 4.. • . A. • " - . \ ./. / i LEGEND _ c. / jr---,.:74t Dams (Hazard Class) - J Significant EL PASO � • �: _HEYENNE ' I -'--'-C �' 4 --'1.. rr .........a. ''........ cf\ A LOW iv? - HAZUS •1 q0 year Flood LINCo .�, '�-�_ Streamsloa„ ) .---. \.,.1�", r• Lakes 1N c• c Highway 9 Y Interstate -J " —+- Railroads J , ,, , tuoWA I Cities "i\'- " CROWLEY 0 Counties PUEBLO A 0 '' ^____._".._ • States _ 9 IT _ ERb BENT I t • PROWERS 25 50 Miles amec� Map compiled 4/2009; intended for planning purposes only Data Source: State of Colorado, CDOT, CODWR, HAZUS-MH MR3 • Source: 2008 Colorado State Hazard Mitigation Plan Northeast Colorado FINAL 25 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 The table below depicts the number of Class I and Class II dams in each county. This information is drawn from the 2008 Colorado State Hazard Mitigation Plan. Of all the counties in the planning region, Weld County has the most potential to be impacted by a dam failure, both from dams within the County and from dams on drainages in Boulder and Larimer Counties that drain into Weld. Table 4.5. Class I and Class II Dams in the Planning Region County Number of Class I Dams Number of Class II Dams Cheyenne 0 0 Kit Carson 1 0 Lincoln 1 2 Logan 3 0 Morgan 0 6 Phillips 0 0 Sedgwick 3 0 Washington 1 0 Weld 8 17 Yuma 1 7 Total 18 32 • Source:National Inventory of Dams Associated with HAZUS MH MR3 Dams outside of the planning region may also have a significant impact on the area if a catastrophic failure were to occur. The major river basin in the planning region is the South Platte, which is a sub-basin in the Missouri River Basin. Several major tributaries of the basin which have dams that may impact the area, though the location of the dams themselves are significantly outside the ten-county area, are the South Platte River, Cache La Poudre River, Big Thompson River, and St. Vrain Creek. Other tributaries include Boulder Creek, Clear Creek, and Cherry Creek, which may also indirectly impact the planning area. The counties and communities in the South Platter River floodplain are most at risk to dam failure hazards. These include Logan, Morgan, Sedgwick, Washington and Weld Counties. However, the downstream distance of these counties from hazardous dams is great enough that advance warning and lead time should allow for evacuations of populated areas. The geographic extent rating for the area of the planning region that could be impacted by a dam failure is considered significant. The table below indicates the number of Class I and Class II dams along the major tributaries that flow into the planning region. Not all of these dams are located in the planning region, but the potential impacts from a catastrophic dam failure along one of these tributaries is likely to impact the planning region. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 26 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Table 4.6. Class I and Class II Dams along Major Tributaries Outside of the Region River Name Number of Class I Dams Number of Class II Dams South Platte River 17 6 Cache La Poudre 20 9 Big Thompson River 11 8 St. Vrain Creek 4 5 Boulder Creek 9 6 Clear Creek 8 5 Cherry Creek 2 1 Total 71 40 Source:National Performance of Dams Programs Multi-Attribute Dams Directory Query Comparison of the two tables indicates that only 30% of the Class I dams the region may be vulnerable to are actually located inside the planning region. 80% of the Class II dams the region may be vulnerable to are located within the planning region. There are six levees in the planning area based on levees that are mapped on Flood Insurance Rate Maps. These levees are described in Table 4.7. This levee inventory is not complete, as portions of the planning region have not been mapped by the NFIP, and many of the existing • maps are over 20 years old. Smaller levees or embankments that do not provide 100-year flood protection would not be captured in this inventory. Morgan County has levees protecting the communities of Weldona and Wiggins.. Table 4.7. Levees in the Planning Area Levee Flooding Protected Protected Unprotected ID Levee Type County Community Source Length Flood Area Zone Area Flood Area Zone Type Zone 766 Riverine Weld City of Evans South 1.4 Zone B or D Zone AE 1.5 Platte River miles Zone X 769 Riverine Weld Town of Divided 0.4 Zone B or D Zone AE 0.5 Frederick Flow Area miles Zone X 770 Riverine Weld Weld County South 1.0 Zone B or 0 Zone AE 0.5 Platte River Miles Zone X 771 Riverine Weld Weld County St.Vrain 3.5 Zone C or D Zone A 1.0 Railroad Creek miles Zone X Embankment Riverine Weld Town of Erie Coal Creek Shaded X North Fork 0.1 Zone C or 783 Riverine Yuma City of Wray Republican miles Zone X D Zone A 0.5 River North Fork 0.1 Zone C 784 Riverine Yuma City of Wray Republican miles Zone X or D Zone A 0.5 River Source:Colorado Levee Report from FEMA Levee Information System • Northeast Colorado FINAL 27 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • A geographic distribution of levees is difficult to calculate based on this data, as it may be incomplete and offers no means of assessing potential damages due to a levee failure. However, based strictly on the distribution of known physical structures, the geographic extent is limited. Previous Occurrences The failure of the Lower Latham Reservoir Dam in 1973 resulted in a Presidential Major Disaster Declaration. That failure flooded the Town of Kersey in Weld County.ls A search of the NPDP yielded 139 dam incidents and failures in the state. The database was then cross- referenced so that only dams located in the planning area were evaluated. The table below reflects those findings. According to this table there have been 10 dam failures in the region. Six of the ten failures were associated with low hazard dams. No specific information about the dam failures was available from this database. • • 16 Colorado Water Conservation Board, 2007 Flood Hazard Mitigation Plan p 21. Northeast Colorado FINAL 28 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Table 4.8. Dam Incidents in Planning Area Dam ID Name Date of Description of Nearest County Class Waterway Failure? Incident Incident Town CO00009 Empire 1909 Unknown Orchard Morgan High South Platte No CO00382 Jumbo 1910 Seepage Sedgwick Sedgwick Low South Platte Yes CO00112 Riverside 1910 Reservoir-Wind Orchard Morgan High Sanborn Yes Waves Draw CO00384 Point of Rocks 1915 Reservoir-Wind Ilia Logan Low Cedar Yes Waves Creek CO00393 Sand Creek 1915 Piping NEnango, Lincoln Low Sand Draw Yes CO00014 Ireland#5 1973 Inflow Flood- Kersey Weld Low Boxelder Yes Hydrologic Event Creek CO00014 Ireland#5 1984 Piping Kersey Weld Low Boxelder Yes Creek COS00007 Greeley 1993 Animal Burrows Greeley Weld Unknown Unknown Yes CO00095 Lower Latham 4/12/1973 Piping Kersey Weld Significant Bee Bee Yes' Draw COS00006 Prospect 2/10/1980 Piping Incident Unknown Weld Unknown Unknown Yes Reservoir Dam CO01736 Highland 11/26/1990 Deterioration/Lac Platteville Weld Low St.Vrain No k of Spillway Creek CO0009 Empire(East 9/20/1994 Inadequate Orchard Morgan High South Platte No Embankment) Spillway Capacity Inadequate Sanborn • CO00112 Riverside 12/15/1994 Spillway Capacity Orchard Weld High Draw No Frenchman South Fork OO00390 Creek 6/4/1995 Piping Holyoke Phillips Low Frenchman Yes Creek CO01899 Milton Lake 6/27/1995 Seepage;Piping Kersey Weld High South Platte No CO01122 Henry 4/10/1996 Deterioration Unknown Weld Low Unknown No Reservoir CO00016 Jackson Lake 4/15/1999 Incident(High Goodrich Morgan High South Platte No Winds/Wave River Damage) CO00529 Karval 5/6/1999 Seepage/Slide Las Animas Lincoln Low Adobe No Creek CO00054 D.A. Lord No. 4/17/2000 Deterioration Roggen Weld Low Lost Creek No 4 •This event resulted in a Federal Disaster Declaration Source:National Performance of Dams Programs Dam Incident query. Probability of Future Occurrences Within the planning area there have been 10 failures between 1907 and 2008, a 101-year period. This equates to a failure recurrence rate of 10% and a rating of likely. However, dam incidents may indicate that failures were possible; therefore, counting both serious dam incidents and dam failures may provide a more reliable probability of future occurrence rating. In that case, there have been 19 reported incidents and the rate is 18.8%. This only accounts for documented incidents inside of the planning area. If known incidents and failures for any dam that could • impact the region was calculated, the ratings would likely increase. Northeast Colorado FINAL 29 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Magnitude/Severity The severity and magnitude of a given dam or levee failure is best assessed on a county basis and case-by-case basis. This information is contained in the emergency action plans for the high hazard dams in the State. Some generalizations, however, are also useful for comparing dam failure hazards to other hazards in the planning region. The 2007 State Flood Hazard Mitigation Plan indicates that property damage due to dam failures is very high, though few lives have been lost. More information on the Class I and II dams, and an estimate of relative impacts from a failure of them, can be referenced in the County Planning Elements for Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Sedgwick, Washington, Weld and Yuma Counties. Additional estimates of levee failure impacts are discussed in the Morgan, Logan,Weld, and Yuma County Planning Elements. Dams are classified based on the potential damages and loss of life. Class I dams, by definition, would merit a magnitude/severity rating of catastrophic, whereas Class II dams rate as critical and low hazard dams fall into the limited rating. Certified levees would fall along a similar distribution. It is interesting to note, however, that the majority of dam failures in the region are for low- hazard dam classifications, and the only failure to merit a disaster declaration was for a Class II failure. This indicates that, perhaps, the most appropriate general rating for the hazard is critical. Overall Hazard Significance The geographic distribution of dams may be measured either by how many dams are in a given • area, or by how much area may potentially be impacted by a failed dam. The general evaluation of such for this plan estimates the geographic distribution for dams to be extensive. The probability of future occurrences is measured based on past incident history. The probability for documented, in-region dam failures is likely, when examining all incidents, including failures, for dams just within the region. The factors of dams outside the planning region should also be considered. The magnitude/severity rating for the hazard is considered critical, mostly due to the number of Class I dams that could impact the region. As communities continue to grow, previously lower-classified dams may pose greater risks, which could elevate their hazard classification. A generalization of this hazard is difficult to assess, as there are many individual variables. Examples include the age of the dam, location relative to a waterway, relative location to other structures, and reservoir capacity. Considering this, mitigation actions related to dam failures, particularly when combined with the flood hazard, should remain a high priority for the planning region, with careful evaluation on the changing potential of the hazard. 4.2.5 Drought Description There are several accepted definitions of drought within the state of Colorado. They include: • A natural yet unpredictable occurrence in Colorado; an extended period of dry weather, especially one injurious to crops (Colorado Drought Mitigation &Response Plan); • Northeast Colorado FINAL 30 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • • A period of insufficient snowpack and reservoir storage to provide adequate water to urban and rural areas (Colorado Climate Center at CSU, from the 2003 Drought Impact and Mitigation Report); and • Meteorological: based on degree of dryness; actual precipitation is less than expected average or normal amount. Hydrologic: based on precipitation shortfall effects on stream flows and reservoir, lake, and groundwater levels. Agricultural: based on soil moisture deficiencies relative to water demands on plant life. Socioeconomic: occurs when the demand for water is greater than the supply due to a weather-related supply shortfall. (FEMA, in Colorado State Hazard Mitigation Plan 2008). All of these definitions revolve around the common concept of drought; that is, a period of time where the amount of water available is insufficient to meet the demands on that water supply. Droughts are of particular concern in regions that rely on water supplies for agriculture growth and development. The majority of the planning region is considered agricultural, and therefore may have a higher exposure to drought events than other areas of the state. Geographic Extent According to the State Hazard Mitigation Plan, the Northeastern Colorado region is considered at medium risk to drought events. Droughts are regional events on a national level, impacting • multiple states simultaneously. Therefore, as the climate of the planning region is fairly continuous, it is reasonable to assume that a drought will impact the entire planning region and the hazard has a geographic extent rating of extensive. Previous Occurrences The planning area has experienced 6 multi-year droughts since 1893, with the most pronounced being in the 1930s and 1950s. The following chart is from the Colorado Drought Mitigation & Response Plan (2002). • Northeast Colorado FINAL 31 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.6. Historical Dry and Wet Periods in Colorado DATE DRY WET DURATION (Years) 1893-1905 X 12 1905-1931 X 26 1931-1941 X 10 1941-1951 X 10 1951-1957 X 6 1957-1959 X 2 1963-1965 X 2 1965-1975 X 10 1975-1978 X 3 1979-1996 X 17 Source: 2002 Colorado Drought Mitigation and Response Plan The Colorado Drought Mitigation and Response Plan was last updated in 2007. The update provided the following additional information to the table above, drawn from the 2004 Drought & Water Supply Assessment (DWSA) : "The period 2000 through 2003 was a `significant multi-year statewide drought, with many areas • experiencing [the] most severe conditions in Colorado instrumented history. "11 The 2007 DWSA Update notes that the "effects of Colorado' s recent drought (1999-2003) still linger among municipal providers." And that " (a)lthough snowpack in Colorado improved after the extremely dry year in 2002, the state as a whole has not exceeded an average snowpack level since 1998." 18 However, the Water Year 2009 Precipitation as Percent of Normal from October 2008 to May 2009 indicates that the majority of Lincoln and Weld Counties, all of Morgan County, and portions of Logan and Washington Counties are above 50% normal precipitation for a water year. The remainder of the region is above 100%, with a small portion of Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne Counties above 150%. 17 Colorado Water Conservation Board, Updated Information Provided in Support of the 2002 Colorado Drought Mitigation and Response Plan, June 2007. Available online at http://cwcb.state.co.us/NR/rdonlyres/1F537E1C- A4FC-4B8D-A553-7C5D381BA250/0/FinalReportJune2007.pdf last accessed July 13, 2009. 18 Colorado Water Conservation Board, Colorado Drought and Water Supply Update 2007, pg 7. Available online at http://cwcb.state.co.us/NR/rdonlyres/3CA19EE2-F2D3-42E9-8D67- • 382417E329E0/0/CoDWSA2007FinalReport.pdf last accessed July 13, 2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 32 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • _ � . 1 • 4 JEtb411air- 40 in Maw 1-n*ttvu IIwi4 pull In tn r 4 11 — • . t _ • • Y rt - T h • r Source: Photo by Vernon Trvon. High Plains Squadron. Civil Air Patrol. Brush, Colorado - October 26,2002 Images from the 2002 drought Almost the entire planning area resides in the South Platte River Basin, including the entire counties of Weld, Morgan, Logan, Sedgwick, Phillips, Washington, and Yuma. Kit Carson County is essentially entirely contained in the South Platte River Basin. The northern portion of Lincoln County and the eastern portion of Cheyenne County are also included in this basin. The majority of Lincoln County and the remainder of Cheyenne County fall in the Arkansas River Basin. The following table, drawn from the 2007 DWSA, depicts the extent of drought recovery by water division from the 1999-2003 drought, as reported by municipal water providers. Table 4.9. River Division Drought Status, 2007 South Platte River Division Arkansas River Division Still in severe drought 4% 0% About halfway to recovery 18% 32% • Northeast Colorado FINAL 33 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Fully recovered, reservoirs are full 67% 59% Don't know/refused 11% 9% Total 100% 100% Source:2007 Drought and Water Supply Assessment This information indicates that recovery periods from droughts are lengthy, but vary greatly depending on the location of the water resource in question. Though neither river basin in the planning area was completely recovered by 2007, more than half of the areas reported as recovered in 5 years. If the average wet period following a drought is 11.8 years, this indicates that, on average, the counties in the planning area can expect to recover between droughts, but also emphasizes the need for drought mitigation planning. Probability of Future Occurrences Colorado has experienced 6 significant droughts since 1893. This equates to a recurrence interval of experiencing a drought every 19.3 years, which lasts, on average, for 6.5 years. The rate of occurrence is 5.17%. This expected recurrence rating coincides with a probability rating of occasional, although the extended nature of the events may actually qualify the hazard for a likely occurrence rating. (This is assumed by taking the number of"dry" years, rather than the number of droughts, divided by the total number of years on record. Using this methodology, the probability of future occurrence is 32%.) Magnitude/Severity The severity of a drought depends on the duration and its relative impact on agriculture, water supply, revenues derived from water industries and agriculture, and the extent of the event. For the purposes of this plan, droughts are not considered to cause human fatalities directly. Extreme temperatures that may be associated with droughts are profiled later in this plan. In addition, drought does not usually directly impact critical infrastructures such as roads, bridges or buildings housing communications, EMS, fire, police and medical personnel. Drought may cause more than 50% damage to agricultural lands, depending on scope and severity. Available crop insurance data is not available for specific impacts, but over $644 million has been paid to the region's agricultural landowners in insurance claims between 1980 and 2007. It is reasonable to assume that a significant amount of this is due to drought-related losses. Agricultural losses encompass several aspects of loss with cascading effects. The loss of an initial crop is a financial impact directly. From there, additional damages may include the loss of seed for the next growing season, the loss of fodder for livestock, or the loss of personal food supplies intended to supplement or even replace a grocery budget. These incur additional expenses in the next growing year. As more crops are lost, the cost of replacements also increases, which exponentially impacts the overall costs to farmers. Livestock owners are also impacted by drought, as natural food resources from livestock herds may be scarce or unavailable during a drought, which may result in unhealthier herds, force the rancher to sustain lower inventory levels of animals, or incur additional expenses when feed for the animals must be purchased. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 34 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Water rights battles are also exacerbated during drought conditions, where the costs of water rises while the availability of water decreases. The best reflection of magnitude and severity for drought is critical, because the planning region is predominately agricultural. It is important to note this rating is higher than it might be for a more metropolitan area and may be evaluated differently on a more local level. Overall Hazard Significance The economic implications of drought are severe and are as variable as the event itself. The geographic rating is extensive as droughts are regional and may impact multiple states, not just multiple counties. The probability ranges from occasional to likely, depending on the methodology. For the region, which is heavily agricultural, the magnitude and severity of an event is critical. Overall, a drought is a prolonged and serious hazard to the region, though individual communities and sections of the region may have different assessments based on particular mitigation efforts and backgrounds. Regional emphasis on mitigation projects is important. The hazard is considered of high significance. 4.2.6 Earthquake Description An earthquake is caused by a sudden slip on a fault. Stresses in the earth's outer layer push the sides of the fault together. Stress builds up and the rocks slip suddenly, releasing energy in waves that travel through the earth's crust and cause the shaking that is felt during an earthquake. The amount of energy released during an earthquake is usually expressed as a Richter magnitude and is measured directly from the earthquake as recorded on seismographs. Another measure of earthquake severity is intensity. Intensity is an expression of the amount of shaking at any given location on the ground surface as felt by humans and defined in the Modified Mercalli scale (see Table 4.10). Table 4.10.Modified Mercalli Intensity(MMI) Scale MMI Felt Intensity Not felt except by a very few people under special conditions. Detected mostly by instruments. II Felt by a few people, especially those on upper floors of buildings. Suspended objects may swing. III Felt noticeably indoors. Standing automobiles may rock slightly. Felt by many people indoors, by a few outdoors.At night,some people are awakened. Dishes,windows, IV and doors rattle. Felt by nearly everyone. Many people are awakened. Some dishes and windows are broken. Unstable V objects are overturned. Felt by everyone. Many people become frightened and run outdoors. Some heavy furniture is moved. Some VI plaster falls. Most people are alarmed and run outside. Damage is negligible in buildings of good construction, VII considerable in buildings of poor construction. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 35 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • MMI Felt Intensity Damage is slight in specially designed structures,considerable in ordinary buildings,great in poorly built VIII structures. Heavy furniture is overturned. Damage is considerable in specially designed buildings. Buildings shift from their foundations and partly IX collapse. Underground pipes are broken. Some well-built wooden structures are destroyed. Most masonry structures are destroyed. The ground is X badly cracked.Considerable landslides occur on steep slopes. XI Few, if any, masonry structures remain standing. Rails are bent. Broad fissures appear in the ground. XII Virtually total destruction.Waves are seen on the ground surface. Objects are thrown in the air. Source:Federal Emergency Management Agency Earthquakes can cause structural damage, injury, and loss of life, as well as damage to infrastructure networks, such as water, power, communication, and transportation lines. Other damage-causing effects of earthquakes include surface rupture, fissuring, settlement, and permanent horizontal and vertical shifting of the ground. Secondary impacts can include landslides, seiches, liquefaction, fires, and dam failure. Seismic shaking is typically the greatest cause of losses to structures during earthquakes. Colorado is considered a region of minor earthquake activity. Geologic studies indicate there are about 90 potentially active faults in Colorado with documented movement within the last 1.6 million years. Potentially active faults, which represent the highest earthquake hazard, are those that have ruptured to the ground surface during the Holocene period (about the last 15,000 • years). Geographic Extent At this time, only three counties in the planning region exhibit known faults that are suspected to be potentially active, with one additional county under investigation for fault lines, which is a fairly limited distribution of potential. However, the magnitude of an event may extend the impacts to significant or extensive proportions. The faults within the region are the Cheraw Fault (Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties) and the High Plains Graben fault (Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Washington, Lincoln, Yuma counties). The High Plains Graben Fault was investigated by the CGS but no evidence of geologically recent movement was found so it is not considered a threat. There is also potential for earthquakes to occur on faults outside of the region along the Colorado Front Range that could produce shaking large enough to cause damage within the planning region. Based on the history of previous occurrences, as documented below, there is also indication that counties without known, active faults are at risk for earthquakes. No geographically extensive earthquakes have occurred in the planning region, but the potential remains. Based on known events, then, the geographic extent rating for this hazard is probably best surmised as limited, with the understanding that the available data is incomplete. Previous Occurrences During the initial planning process, it was identified that available data does not display many • occurrences within the planning area and does not provide much detail or accuracy in terms of Northeast Colorado FINAL 36 of 197 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • location. At that time, the planning team documented 4 earthquakes within the planning area within a 123-year period (1870-1993) using a different, but non-reproducible CDEM map. Those events are documented in the table below. Table 4.11.Known Occurrences Documented as of 1993 County Location Timeline Magnitude Cheyenne East of Kit Carson, South of 50 1962-1993 2.0-2.9 Kit Carson Southeast of Burlington 1962-1993 3.0-3.9 Lincoln Near the Lincoln/Crowley Count line 1870-1961 Unknown Weld East of Kersey 1962-1993 3.0-3.9 Source:Colorado Office of Emergency Management These records are consistent with the information contained in the 2008 State plan. The Colorado Earthquake Project of 1999 provides much of the available data for this hazard. The U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program keeps a list of historical earthquakes by state. Only three earthquakes of historical significance are listed for Colorado. Of these, two may have been felt within the planning area, but likely did not cause much damage. These • include an estimated M6.2 that occurred near Estes Park in 1882, and an M5.3 near the Rocky Mountain Arsenal northeast of Denver. Probability of Future Occurrences The historical record of previous occurrences indicates that events of any magnitude are fairly infrequent, and no serious earthquake events have been recorded in the planning region. It is reasonable to assume a probability rating of occasional. Magnitude/Severity According to Table 4.12 Weld County is the most vulnerable to an earthquake hazard. Even though the predicted scenario run on the Cheraw Fault impacts more counties (both Cheyenne and Lincoln) and is of a greater magnitude, due both to the building content and population of Weld County, an earthquake along the Golden Fault is likely to be the most damaging earthquake potential in the planning area. This also corresponds to the rapid growth and development of Weld County, particularly in comparison to the other counties in the planning area. In the 2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan, extensive discussion about earthquake hazards indicates that the historical assumption about earthquake vulnerability in the state (namely, that said vulnerability is low) may be false. The "Earthquake Evaluation Report" issued by the Colorado Geological Survey (CGS) is included as an Annex in the 2008 State Plan. This report extensively reviews the history of earthquake analysis in the State, and indicates that significant • funding and time investments are required to determine a more realistic evaluation of the Northeast Colorado FINAL 37 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • earthquake threat to the State. As part of the report, the CGS ran HAZUS (FEMA's HAZards United States software) to perform several different loss prediction analyses. One of these is presented in a county summary format. The table below summarizes this information. Table 4.12.Colorado Fault Lines by County Loss Default Estimated Ratio of Estimated Previous County Fault Magnitude Attenuation Fatalities Total Total Events Function Damages Building Stock Cheyenne Cheraw M7.0 CEUS 0 $4.5 million -0.3% May 27, 1984 Kit Carson None Burlington Lincoln Cheraw M7.0 0 $10.4 million -0.6% Logan None Morgan None Phillips None Sedgwick None Washington None" Weld Golden M6.5 WUS 0 $52.2 million -0.3% • Weld Golden M6.5 CEUS 1 $227 million -1.5% Yuma None" 'High Plains Grabens fault under investigation WUS:Western U.S.Attenuation Function CEUS:Central U.S.Attenuation Function Loss Ratio of Total Building Stock:This refers to the percentage of total building stock value damaged. The higher the ratio,the more difficult it is to restore a community to viability. Source:Colorado Geological Society Earthquake Evaluation Report Two other analyses ran by the CGS show data by fault instead of by county. This information reflects the total economic losses, fatalities, and loss ratios for the entire impacted area, not just the specific planning area covered in this document. However, only the two faults with predicted impacts on portions of the planning area are summarized. This information helps place the magnitude of such an event into perspective. For example, Weld County may expect to suffer $227 million in damages from an M6.5 CEUS earthquake along the Golden Fault. While this is certainly a catastrophic event for the County, it is only 1% of the total predicted economic losses. Another fault that could impact the planning area is the Rocky Mountain Arsenal Fault located in Adams County. Counties in the region were not included in CGS HAZUS analyses of this fault, but it is reasonable to assume that a large earthquake on that fault would be felt in the planning area. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 38 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Table 4.13.Fault Scenarios for Counties within 150 km of Fault Fault Scenario Magnitude Total Economic Loss Fatalities Loss Ratio Cheraw Fault CEUS 7.0 $1,353 Million 27 1.0% Cheraw Fault CEUS 6.0 $148 Million 1 0.1% Cheraw Fault CEUS 5.5 $44.3 Million 0 0.03% Golden Fault CEUS 6.5 $22,079 Million 719 7.3% Golden Fault CEUS 6.0 $11,414.4 Million 190 3.75% Golden Fault CEUS 5.5 $4,409.1 Million 20 1.45% Golden Fault CEUS 5.0 $1,498.7 Million 2 .49% WUS:Western U.S.Attenuation Function CEUS:Central U.S.Attenuation Function Source:Colorado Geological Society Earthquake Evaluation Report The HAZUS runs were divided into "Top Five" lists for integration into the 2008 State plan. The first 'Top Five' listed the most damaging faults in the state. The number two fault on that list is the Golden Fault, which impacts Weld County. The second 'Top Five' list depicted total direct economic loss scenarios. The number two scenario on the list reflects the losses for counties impacted by a Golden Fault earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5. The estimated losses are $22.08 billion. However, no portion of the planning area falls within the Highest Loss Ratio categories or the counties at greatest risk. The complete report is available in the 2008 State • Hazard Mitigation Plan. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) issues National Seismic Hazard Maps as reports every few years. These maps provide various acceleration and probabilities for time periods. Figure 4.2.5 depicts the peak horizontal acceleration (%g) with 10%probability of exceedance in 50 years for the planning region. The figure demonstrates that almost the entire region falls in the 2 %g area (represented by the lightest shade). Most of Weld County, and the western portion of Lincoln and Morgan Counties, fall into the 3%g area (represented by the purple shading) and a tiny portion of western Weld County falls into the 4%g category (represented by light blue). This data indicates that the expected severity of earthquakes in the region is fairly limited, as damage from earthquakes typically occurs at peak accelerations of 30% g or greater. However, as demonstrated by the HAZUS modeling documented earlier, the potential, though remote, does exist for damaging earthquakes. This relatively higher risk applies primarily to Cheyenne, Lincoln, Washington, and Weld Counties, due to their proximity to known faults. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 39 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.7. 2008 Northeastern Colorado Seismic Hazard Map —if - --r Sedgwi.ck I I Logan 1 r t Phillips IWeld Morgan I I I I I _ _ _ I i 4 Yuma 1I - _ Washington I \ I I I \ I Cheyenne ti ' l - I Kit Carson I /.1i:\ Lncoln In_ __-___ , ) 1111Source: USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps - 2008 Interactive Tool. Available online at http://gldims.cr.usgs.gov/nshmp2008/viewer.htm Overall Hazard Significance Earthquakes in the region are considered a fairly uncommon event. The geographic extent is considered limited, based on the historical records, although a severe earthquake may impact a larger area. The probability of occurrence, which is estimated due to a limited historical record of previous occurrences, is occasional. The magnitude and severity ratings of the hazard are tied to the extent and intensity of an event. HAZUS modeling indicates events may reach catastrophic scales for small portions of the planning region. Overall, however, expected impacts from earthquakes is considered limited. Overall, then, the hazard is of a low priority to the region, although individual counties may have a higher priority rating based on particular event likelihood. As more information about earthquakes in Colorado becomes available, this hazard may undergo significant revisions. 4.2.7 Flooding Description Riverine flooding is defined as when a watercourse exceeds its "bank-full" capacity. Riverine flooding generally occurs as a result of prolonged rainfall, or rainfall that is combined with already saturated soils from previous rain events. Flash flooding is defined as those floods that • Northeast Colorado FINAL 40 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • rise and fall within a four-hour period. Flash floods are generally associated with intense rainfall events over confined watersheds or with dam or levee failures. A quick search of the NCDC database indicates that flash floods are the most common type of flooding in Colorado. Rapid snowmelt may also cause flooding. While there are no documented reports of this type of flooding in Colorado, it remains a seasonal danger. When flooding occurs, water overflows into the floodplain, the area that is naturally inundated by floodwaters (not those areas that are flooded as a result of watercourse blockages, such as bridge constrictions or debris-clogged culverts). In its common usage, the floodplain most often refers to that area that is inundated by the 100-year flood, the flood that has a 1% chance in any given year of being equaled or exceeded. The 100-year flood is the national standard to which communities regulate their floodplains through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Most of the flood prone counties and incorporated communities within the planning area participate in the NFIP. Participation in the NFIP requires adoption of a local floodplain management ordinance and its enforcement within a mapped Special Flood Hazard Area. A jurisdiction's eligibility to participate is premised on their adoption and enforcement of state and community floodplain management regulations intended to prevent unsafe development in the floodplain, thereby reducing future flood damages.Thus, participation in the NFIP is based on an agreement between communities and the federal government. If a community adopts and enforces a floodplain management ordinance to • reduce future flood risk to new construction in floodplains, the federal government will make flood insurance available within the community as a financial protection against flood losses. Since floods have an annual probability of occurrence, have a known magnitude, depth and velocity for each event, and in most cases, have a map indicating where they will occur, they are in many ways often the most predictable and manageable hazard. Geographic Extent All counties within the planning region have the potential for flooding. The extent of the flooding varies based on the location of the county, and on what part of the county is being examined. Detailed geographic flood assessments are provided in each county's chapter. For the region, Figure Figure 4.8 illustrates the 100-year floodplains. The majority of the flooding in the region occurs along the South Plate River and its tributaries, although flooding along tributaries which contribute to the Arkansas River are also evident in the southern portion of the planning area, and for the Republican River in the easternmost portion of the region. The greatest anticipated source of hazardous flooding in the region stems from the South Platte River and its tributaries. Historically, the South Platte River basin has resulted in 12 of the 24 notable flood events in Colorado from 1864 to 2006. Major tributaries such as the Big Thompson River and Cache La Poudre River have experienced disastrous floods in their own right. In addition, significant population centers, such as Greeley and Sterling, are near these rivers. Based on this information, and illustrated in the map below, the geographic extent rating on a regional level is • significant. Northeast Colorado FINAL 41 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.8. Northeast Colorado 100-Year Flood Hazard Areas WYOMING NEBRASKA yr. in •J, ' �. ,. - - tea.. a." ~ ' s w• '`_! "� -* % , • h 1 ` o.. / ,` •, J . l ( t •� 1� `y�T i1 I SEDGWMCK�.. \-'' ' \ 4._ t. •' j. w •... , % •tie • •1 r.✓ i�,."• r I "1'''� LOGAN • - -�J �M. �. �s � .,...l. rI tr * MA ... "S° • r . f , " / MO' AN i •^�' . . .. Fti . ` S.-,. , r _ • t J . • Y / L -a et ' i _AID s ' l /• .•1 lik4 "A to • AfitiPAtiOE �? \ I s1 first f ` • rait . • --1 • i , J r ) f 1� { r DOJC A5 y i/ a _ � Le .. a r • I �.• T �C1T CARSON re LEGEND %. L { ,r1f �.• Dams (Hazard Class) ) t / . .� r _ • High I ( t • Significant ti t °'y . 11 . r ,•,f�''�,� • Low EL PASO �� 7\4\ + N r i HAZUS 100 year r1 ': �q i , �y` NNE . • .r , Flood Depth (ft) - •N •� ' • High : 266 w. S Low : 0 Streams `1/4 Cl Lakes !" - . ..477\ -- Highway ' �_ % I y — interstate `\ l41 . , _ t,,x-... . -~ Railroads I \ `4 KIOWiA = CI t % I. Cities PUEBLO i CRO' a l'i O Northeast Counties Boundary P II-11, Counties PROWERS D States J r1 TER BENT ;Is • 0 20 *Miles o ab.�Map compiled 4/2009: intended for planning purposes only A Data Source: State of Colorado; COOT. COOWR, H.AZUS-MH MR3 • Northeast Colorado FINAL 42 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Previous Occurrences Flooding has occurred frequently within the planning area. Based on available disaster declaration information and records, the most significant floods in the region were in 1935, 1963, 1965, 1979, 1980, 1997, and 1999. More specifically, the 2007 State Flood Hazard Mitigation Plan includes accounts of thunderstorm-related flood events, snowmelt flooding, and dam failure floods which impacted the planning region. While the dam failure floods are captured in the dam failure hazard identification section, the other flood events are included here. In July 1993, the Town of Otis and the unincorporated area of Cope in Washington County, and the City of Yuma in Yuma County experienced a weekend flood event as a result of three consecutive days of thunderstorms. Several homes suffered damages and roadways were inundated, resulting in severe losses. In Otis, a flood control and storm drainage project protected the northern half of the town. In the spring and early summer if 1995, the lower South Plate River experienced significant flooding, impacting primarily agricultural landowners. From July 24-28 1997, the City of Fort Collins and eastern Colorado received drenching, soaking rains which resulted in disastrous flooding. During July 29 slow-moving thunderstorms deposited large amounts of rain over the Pawnee Creek Basin in Weld and Logan Counties and over the Schaefer Draw Basin in Morgan County north of Weldona. Floodwaters entered the unincorporated Town of Weldona later that night, while similar flooding occurred early on July 30 in the unincorporated Town of Atwood. The flooding flowed east from Atwood into the City • of Sterling, ultimately resulting in a Presidential Disaster Declaration. From April 29 to May 1, 1999, heavy rain and saturated soil lead to flooding in Northeastern Colorado along the South Platte River and its tributaries. Statewide, this flood is considered the worst flood occurrence in the state since 1965. In June of 1983, snowmelt caused flooding along the Cache la Poudre River in Greeley, as well as elsewhere in the state. The table below documents some of the many other floods which have struck the planning area as well. The County Planning Elements capture more detail on these floods and the specific impacts they have had. Table 4.14.Flood Occurrences per County, 1950-2008 County Occurrences Cheyenne 16 Kit Carson 16 Lincoln 10 Logan 11 Morgan 22 Phillips 10 Sedgwick 6 Washington 19 • Weld 25 Northeast Colorado FINAL 43 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • County Occurrences Yuma 24 10 County Total 159 Source: National Climatic Data Center Probability of Future Occurrences Based on the information above, the planning area experiences an average of 2.7 floods per year. Most of these floods were less than the 100-year flood; the chance of a 100-year flood occurring within any 30-year period is 26%. The chance of a 100-year flood occurring in any 100-year period is approximately 63%. The 2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan considers Morgan, Phillips, and Weld Counties to be at a moderate risk for flooding. The 2007 Flood Hazard Mitigation Plan indicates that Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Sedgwick, Washington, and Weld Counties are high-risk counties for flooding. This is consistent with the HAZUS runs conducted for the region during the update process. Based on the calculated rates, the probability for future occurrence of a 100-year flood event in the planning region is likely. Magnitude/Severity Floods present a risk to life and property, including buildings, their contents, and their use. Floods can affect crops and livestock. Floods can also affect lifeline utilities (e.g., water, • sewerage, and power), transportation,jobs, tourism, the environment, and the local and regional economies. This is somewhat similar for all of the hazards identified with the planning area. One method of examining the magnitude and severity of flooding in the region is to examine the damage losses and payments from the National Flood Insurance Program. This information is not comprehensive, because it only reflects the communities which participate in the NFIP, but it is a useful overview of flood damages in the region. The information below represents the composite of unincorporated and community-specific policies, claims and payments. Individual community information is found in the corresponding community-specific planning element. Table 4.15.NFIP Damages and Payments 1978.2009 County Policies Claims Payments Cheyenne' 0 0 0 Kit Carson' 0 0 0 Lincoln 19 5 $4,362 Logan 405 52 $199,629 Morgan 193 26 $53,036 Phillips 5 2 $7,402 Sedgwick' 0 0 0 Washington 2 0 0 • Weld 507 47 $147,486 Northeast Colorado FINAL 44 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • County Policies Claims Payments Yuma 19 2 $1,848 10 County Total 1,150 134 $416,763 'Does not participate in the NFIP program. Source:Community Information System 2009 As with other non-regional hazards, assessing a general magnitude/severity rating on a region- wide level involves a level of conjecture. Based on the historic record of events, generally the flooding in the region is fairly limited. Losses recounted above indicate that some areas may have a more significant impact from flooding than others. Individual county profiles provide more accurate insights into the flooding risk by jurisdiction, which helps account for the variability of the hazard across the planning region. To estimate the magnitude of flood impacts by jurisdiction flood losses were modeled using FEMA's HAZUS-MH loss estimation software. The results of this modeling are captured in map and tabular form in each County Planning Element. The methodology is discussed in Section 4.3 Vulnerability Assessment. Overall Hazard Significance Flooding was considered a high priority in the original planning process, including the achievement of NFIP eligibility for flood-prone jurisdictions within the region. During the planning process, the planning teams provided feedback that this remains a priority for the region. While the geographic extent is significant and the regional magnitude severity is limited, the probability is likely. In addition, individual counties may have much higher ratings, depending on their particular geographies and existing mitigation capabilities. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider this hazard as high significance. 4.2.8 Fog Description Fog is a cloud made up of water droplets suspended in the air at the earth S surface. Fog forms when air is cooled to its dew point, which is the temperature at which air is saturated with moisture. When air reaches its dew point it condenses into very small particles, forming the tiny water droplets that create clouds. When this occurs very close to the ground, the event is called fog. The intensity and duration of fog varies with the location and type of fog. Severity ranges from early morning ground fog that bums off easily to prolonged valley fog that can last for days. Generally, strong winds prevent fog formation. The following list summarizes several possibilities for the formation, intensity, and duration of fog, as compiled in the "Hazardous Weather Resource Guide" by FEMA: • Ground Fog is associated with clear nights, stable air (winds less than 5 mph), and a small- temperature dew point range. It forms when heat radiates away from the ground, cooling the ground and surface air. When air cools to its dew point, fog forms, usually a layer of less • Northeast Colorado FINAL 45 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • than 100-200 feet. It is common in many areas of the United States and generally burns off from the morning sun. • Advection Fog is associated with horizontal wind, warm humid air, and winter temperatures. It forms when wind pushes warm humid air over the cold ground or water, where it cools to the dew point and forms fog. Advection fog can cover wide areas of the central U.S. in winter. During the winter this is common when snow covers much of the Midwest. The snow cools the bottom portion of the moist air mass often resulting in condensation. This type of fog can be widespread, covering very large areas. • Evaporation Fog is associated with bodies of water. It forms as cold air blows over warmer water, causing the water to evaporate into the cold air, increasing the humidity to the dew point. Vapor condenses, forming a layer of fog 1 to 2 feet thick over the water. It can form over ponds and streams on fall days. • Precipitation Fog is associated with warmer rain and cooler air. It forms when rain evaporates, and the added vapor increases the air to its dew point. The vapor then condenses into fog. Precipitation fog forms on cool, rainy days. Fog may occur anywhere in the planning region, at any point during the day. Fog is more common during the early morning hours. Fog is typically a semi-regional phenomenon, which means it may affect large portions of a county or within the planning region simultaneously. It may also form in patches, following water sources or cooler ground tracts. • Geographic Extent The geographic extent of fog is generally regional, though it may not cover the entire planning region. Occasionally various weather conditions may result in 'patchy' fog, which impacts only selected portions of a county within the region. The variability of the hazard, then, merits only a significant geographic extent rating. Previous Occurrences The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) have been tracking fog and dense fog occurrences in the state since 1995. Only two events are listed for counties within the planning area. One event, dated March 4, 1997, impacted both Morgan and Weld Counties. The second event, dated August 24, 2008, impacted Yuma County. Statewide, only 57 incidents have been documented via the NCDC database and the majority of these recorded incidents indicate that fog impacted airport flights or caused traffic accidents of significant size. During the action development meeting for CPS 3 (Lincoln, Cheyenne and Kit Carson Counties) members indicated that fog is a problem east of Genoa (Lincoln County) near Cedar Point, where it was attributed to one traffic fatality. During the CPS kickoff meeting in Weld County, the participants discussed the occurrence of fog on major roadways. However, no specific information regarding fog-related hazards was supplied from the County, and it was not discussed as a significant hazard in later meetings. In other meetings, direct solicitation for • discussion about fog results in general commentary about fog as a hazard, but no specific data. Northeast Colorado FINAL 46 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Probability of Future Occurrences The hazard is not profiled in the 2008 Colorado State Hazard Mitigation Plan, the 2004 Northern Colorado Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan, the Boulder County Hazard Mitigation Plan (updated 2008), or in the Denver Region Council of Governments (DRCOG) Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan from 2003. These four plans represent the areas with the closest geographic representations to those in the planning region. This lack of profiling, along with the lack of data regarding fog incidents, makes developing a rate of occurrence difficult. Fog is known to occur multiple times during a calendar year, but the extent, timing and severity of the event are what mark the occurrence of hazardous fog. However, there is no method for tracking incidents, and very few severe instances are reported. It is unlikely, then, that a 100% occurrence rating can be sustained. As such, the occurrence rating that best reflects fog events in the state is likely. Magnitude/Severity The magnitude and severity, which is calculated based on the previous occurrences and specific aspects of risks, provides a qualitative assessment of the potential for deaths or injuries and the extent of anticipated damage to property and infrastructure. For fog, since records of such events incidents are not officially tracked, this rating may be more qualitative than others. Generally, fog does not directly cause damages to people or property. It may cause secondary damages which vary in severity on a case-by-case basis. Based on the known incidents of fog, but without • much verifiable data, the magnitude and severity rating for fog events in Colorado is best represented by a negligible rating. In the future, fog events may merit further study and verification for inclusion in the planning process. Overall Hazard Significance Fog is fairly common hazard that impacts a significant geographic area within the region during any given occurrence. Fog is a yearly event, though there is no data to differentiate between regular fog events and severe instances which may merit additional precautionary measures or result in higher damages, and so the probability rating is likely. The severity of fog is difficult to quantify, as the hazard itself causes no damage, but instead increases the likelihood of other hazards (which are often technologically or human driven), the severity and magnitude rating is negligible. Overall, then, fog is considered a low priority hazard for the planning area. 4.2.9 Hailstorms Description Hail is associated with thunderstorms that can also bring high winds and tornados. It forms when updrafts carry raindrops into extremely cold areas of the atmosphere where they freeze into ice. Hail falls when it becomes heavy enough to overcome the strength of the updraft and is pulled by gravity towards the earth. Hailstorms occur throughout the spring, summer, and fall in the • region, but are more frequent in late spring and early summer. Hailstones are usually less than Northeast Colorado FINAL 47 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • two inches in diameter and can fall at speeds of 120 mph. Hail causes nearly $1 billion in damage to crops and property each year in the United States. Hail is also one of the requirements which the National Weather Service uses to classify thunderstorms as 'severe.' If hail more than 3/a of an inch is produced in a thunderstorm, it qualifies as severe. The National Weather Service classifies hail by diameter size, and corresponding everyday objects to help relay scope and severity to the population. The table below indicates the hailstone measurements utilized by the National Weather Service. Table 4.16.Hailstone Measurements Average Diameter Corresponding Household Object .25 inch Pea .5 inch Marble/Mothball .75 inch Dime/Penny .875 inch Nickel 1.0 inch Quarter 1.5 inch Ping-pong ball 1.75 inch Golf-Ball 2.0 inch Hen Egg 2.5 inch Tennis Ball • 2.75 inch Baseball 3.00 inch Teacup 4.00 inch Grapefruit 4.5 inch Softball Source: National Weather Service Geographic Extent The geographic extent of hail is tied to the area affected by the thunderstorm event which houses the hail. Within the extent of the storm, the extent of the hail also varies widely. It is nearly impossible to pre-determine where hail may fall more than a few hours ahead of the storm. It is unlikely that, on a regional level, hail will damage more than 25% of the area, which returns a limited geographic extent rating. This may change within an individual county or planning jurisdiction, however. Previous Occurrences Hailstorms are profiled as an individual hazard because hail is a major cause of agricultural losses within the planning area, as reported by the National Crop Insurance Services. The following table reflects the number of reported hail occurrences for each county in the planning area, as recorded in the NCDC database. Because hailstorms are so frequent, and the majority of • Northeast Colorado FINAL 48 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • hailstorms cause negligible damage, the search parameters were limited to hail events producing hailstones at least 2 inches in diameter. Table 4.17.Hail (≥ 2") Occurrences per County: 1950-2008 County Occurrences Cheyenne 17 Kit Carson 29 Lincoln 24 Logan 20 Morgan 22 Phillips 12 Sedgwick 14 Washington 42 Weld 52 Yuma 32 10 County Total 264 Source:National Climatic Data Center Probability of Future Occurrences • Hailstorms are a frequent event in every county in the planning region. The 2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan notes that areas of northern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming endure hailstorms more than eight days a year, and that the Colorado plains are ranked #1 by the insurance industry for hail-related damage.19 Based on the information above, the planning area has experienced an average of 4.5 significant hailstorms per year, which equates to a 100% probability of future occurrence. This corresponds to an occurrence rating of highly likely. Magnitude/Severity There are no reported injuries or deaths from severe hail storms. Crop losses were discussed at planning meetings, but no qualitative data regarding damages and economic losses were available. However, according to the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association (RMIIA), hail is the costliest insurance hazard to Colorado. Of the top five disasters, in terms of cost, documented in the state, four are from hail. The insured damage for the state from a hailstorm on July 11, 1990 was $625 million. The NCDC database estimates the total damages due to hail in the planning region (restricted to events of 2" or greater in size) is over $40 million. Injuries are associated with hailstorms, though, are generally not debilitating, and fatalities are rare, but possible. Facilities are generally able to operate without much disruption • 19 CO-OEM, 2008 Hazard Mitigation Plan p Hazards-59. Northeast Colorado FINAL 49 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • of services. However, because of the extraordinary costs of hail, particularly in an agriculturally based region, the most appropriate magnitude severity rating for hail in the region is critical. Overall Hazard Significance Crops are at significant risk to hail events, as is property such as automobiles, homes, and businesses. Insurance losses due to hail top the hazards event lists in the state of Colorado. People may be injured or killed by severe hail if shelter is unavailable, and damages often have long-term effects, both physically and financially. Hail has an extensive geographic range, and is highly likely to occur every year. The magnitude and severity of severe hail events are critical. Overall, hail is considered one of the most significant hazards to the planning region, or a high significance rating. 4.2.10 Land Subsidence Description The Colorado Geological Survey defines land subsidence as the sinking of the land over manmade or natural underground voids. In Weld County, the type of subsidence of greatest concern is the settling of the ground over abandoned mine workings. Past coal and clay mining activities have created surface subsidence in some areas and created the potential for subsidence • in other areas. Subsidence can result in serious structural damage to buildings, roads, irrigation ditches, underground utilities, and pipelines. It can disrupt and alter the flow of surface or underground water. Weight, including surface developments such as roads, reservoirs, and buildings and manmade vibrations from such activities as blasting or heavy truck or train traffic can accelerate the natural processes of subsidence. Fluctuations in the level of underground water caused by pumping or by injecting fluids into the earth can initiate sinking to fill the empty space previously occupied by water or soluble minerals. The consequences of improper use of land subject to ground subsidence can be excessive economic losses, including the high costs of repair and maintenance for buildings, irrigation works, highways, utilities, and other structures. This results in direct economic losses to citizens as well as indirect economic losses through increased taxes and decreased property values. Room and pillar mining is the mining technique used almost exclusively in early Colorado mining. In the room and pillar technique, a shaft or adit was driven or dug to the layer of coal. Passageways were excavated in the coal seam and openings or rooms of coal were dug out on either side of the tunnel. Between the rooms, pillars of coal were left in place to support the roof of the mine. When the coal "ran out", the miner's started to "pull pillars" at the back of the mine. Ideally, pillars were removed until the roof started to cave in and settle. In reality, pillars were not always removed in a systematic manner and many pillars were left to support the roof. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 50 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 0 In some cases, coal was "poached" or more coal was removed from an area than would be noted on the mine map. Also, many mines were incorrectly located relative to surface features due to surveying errors. Consequently, the precise location and extent of underground mines can be difficult to determine. The possible inaccuracies in mining records and the ability to determine present mine conditions combine to make subsidence resulting from room and pillar mining unplanned and unpredictable. Geographic Extent Based on information included in the 2008 State Mitigation Plan, a substantial portion of Weld County is home to coal deposits and/or abandoned coal mines. The southern portion of the County contains deposits classified as the Denver Region coal fields, while the northern part of the County falls into a separate field. The presence of coal in other Counties in the planning area is negligible. The map below indicates the layout of coal deposits in Colorado. Figure 4.9. Colorado Coal Deposits 'fll -{-11111 law. limo* it NORTH eai WWI rrOrEAi u. (W% ', PNLt�P5 1 � AwNf r f 9dkJ t r LREM 1 — ..-_r I 1 • u4iAM @h (LIMA RIG W :tl� li sum!, _ W�SMhfarff{ ?1/4. rettIct.)::•€ FS�L' AF� tAlitt L SAR iVMi � �Wait HP piti��4KlE r 1/ 3*UTH (-474lell ELMtt1 •It vaR$oh I rITR1►r LS$[ I PMRK i tttF, . 6 ....i yE : n _ F�E1.0 � LrNGQI N .�/ ir„ • _ �ttiYElila oEtt� CHArEE ! -- i'asc Celti sop, I` --I _ 1 ,1 r sit NCP.t *foga CANON ITV Nvx, t', _ l *mu . F J I c F '�•J Uar�Ja�NE GlSTEp L. rNCshf^•= r.r► f,. \ iiiv. I n r ro OM '1^" Sie hteg) •• Mgr r ctnL r et.: nibu t `LAmtria, A. r:etivis ,, ., 4 a .1.41Pt tt O Erna LAS Maher, 6aCa C.a31a.!_i "'" emu."JI mu ` C3MEjir i ESA 11 L ti_� REGION REGION -.... Source: Colorado Geological Survey Weld County is the only county within the planning region with known abandoned mines. According to the 2008 State Plan, there are 36 abandoned coal mines in Weld County. The map below illustrates the locations of abandoned mines across Colorado. Based on the available • information, the regional geographic extent of the hazard is limited. Northeast Colorado FINAL 51 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.10. Subsidence above Inactive Coal Mines 1 A I l "1Nf� 1 Lie ►• VD.rat mil Lam MFG ( .Etc FMLLIF9 WOW,are rsaa�lu I_ &O.LXr YuYa n a pLa .' I cLE� ,E _l�CP t uraPari G4M .0 ast:L[ Styr• �F ' )1t-A 'LEVI'? N`1 t.SIMI,.PM ill a M r mss .++KcaS RLId* Iv - C It f(NNL UELtA i ) t�MR¢ I` ?JMN:SO% \ 1 cFE µ'y.' II *IOWA mcff .£ , vi 0------ is .u. i+�tL+l I1U4C$€ loutst t. FUEOLU p�ofF Kt' ..ow4alNer _ OrEar, MOWS . San 1 JLAII WIER& Q t saQ `RANI ALcaa:Sz FAMISatiksi Le. A\IYA4 g ac a +� C:14-O5. =CST,L 4 • Source: Colorado Geological Survey Previous Occurrences Records of previous subsidence occurrences are difficult to track, as there are no coordinating or monitoring agencies for this hazard. However, the 2008 State Mitigation Plan includes the following account: Interstate Highway 25 crosses several abandoned coal mines in Weld County. Roadway settlement of more than two feet near Erie has taken place in patterns that can be closely correlated to subsidence over coal mine workings 350 to 400 feet below the surface. Much of the severely damaged road is now below original grade, resulting in a mild roller coaster-like ride. Estimates for repair of the 3/4 mile section damaged by subsidence are about $ 1 million.20 This information is also collected and reflected in the 2008 Boulder County Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan. Probability of Future Occurrences Calculating the probability of future occurrence of subsidence is difficult given the limited information regarding past events. The numerous locations of abandoned coal mines in the • 20 CDEM, 2008 Hazard Mitigation Plan, p Hazards-86. Northeast Colorado FINAL 52 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 . planning area, combined with the expected rate of subsidence in other similar areas (such as Boulder and Jefferson Counties), indicate that the probability of future occurrence can be estimated as likely. Magnitude/Severity The exact location of a subsidence event would greatly impact the magnitude and severity rating. Subsidence in a field, for example, may merit a negligible rating, whereas subsidence under the City of Greeley may raise the rating as high as critical. The majority of the potential in Weld County does not include the I-25 corridor, so events such as the previous occurrence sample are not as likely. However, with the huge growth of the county's population, the likelihood that subsidence will occur under significant infrastructure is increasing. An appropriate average of the risks at this time is limited, with the understanding that re-evaluation is important as the county continues to grow. Overall Hazard Significance With no (or extremely sporadic) documented instances of subsidence in the planning area, it is difficult to assume a high rate of occurrence. However, the geographic extent of the potential and the corresponding growth in Weld County indicates the probability is likely and will probably increase over time. Magnitude and severity varies based on location, but as with probability, the • growth within the county will probably increase the severity of events, as the likelihood that events will impact populated areas increases. However, all of this information is only relevant to Weld County. The rest of the planning region has a negligible potential for such events. As such, it is appropriate for Weld County to consider mitigation actions and prioritize this hazard higher than the rest of the planning region. The regional significance rating is low. 4.2.11 Landslides Description The 2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan defines landslides as the "downward and outward movement of slopes composed of natural rock, soils, artificial fills, or combinations thereof" Landslides may damage infrastructure by either moving materials into the buildings or across roads, or sliding out from under them. Both events may render structures and roadways unstable and/or unusable, and the damage may or may not be repairable. Damage to waterways, oil and natural gas pipelines, and electrical conduits may hinder the delivery of vital services, both to the affected area and those further down the pipelines from affected areas. Landslides are most common in areas with steep slopes and grading, but may occur anywhere that natural or artificial materials may shift or slide. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 53 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 0 Geographic Extent The State Plan indicates that landslides are far more likely along the Front Range and western slope areas of the State, but that small portions of Northeastern Colorado have landslide potential. The map below depicts areas of suspected high and suspected moderate landslide risk within the planning area, with the majority of the areas shown in Washington and Lincoln counties. Given that most of the planning area is relatively flat, and that potential landslide incidents are isolated, the extent rating is considered limited. Figure 4.11 . Landslide Potential for Colorado 51)4 44 I: 4 4 .• "Nitit:ic air ee ap ° !' ,:I '`+ • i in e NON Pipelines (�/NataralGas Pipelines aa kt Coueety Names 1$ +m• •`r'r r r .... iI ! I I •_ 0m County boundaries n pelmets elmets 2002 ,r '" • •+ �' �II Municipal boundaries 1997 !I ( I — US Lands/do potential X-- a i • Le m•ill• U! combo-hi { - hlgh ll! ( i ::.m d ' - ` ' low • 0 no-data il N i * J7 I IIII� r ---74,C:>siAli►�glh:,,, �n ( WE ., �"i li 70 0 70 140 Miles S Source: Unknown. Previous Occurrences There are no reported or known incidents of landslides in the planning area, but the potential consequences of landslides are enormous. As noted in the 2008 State Plan, "(1)andslides in the U.S. are estimated to cause more than $ 1 billion a year in property damage." Because the potential for high and moderate risk landslides exist in the planning region, this hazard must be profiled in the mitigation plan. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 54 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Probability of Future Occurrences Without previous occurrences, it is not possible to gauge a probability of a future occurrence using the methodology described in this plan. The figure above indicates the probability of potential occurrence, however, and so from that several estimates may be formed. For the majority of the planning region, a landslide event is considered unlikely. For most of Lincoln County and portions of Yuma County, the risk may rise to occasional. The other vulnerable portions of Lincoln County, along with sections of Washington and Morgan Counties, experience a suspected likely occurrence, should the events actually occur. Magnitude/Severity Though largely linked to where an event occurs, landslide events for the region are generally categorized as limited to negligible. Significant damage to property is not expected, nor would such damage be widespread.The availability of services would be impacted, but probably not for extended periods of time. Only a small portion of a natural gas pipeline falls in a suspected risk area, and no known gas lines are in this area. Without actual occurrences, this rating remains an estimate and the hazard should be re-evaluated as more data becomes available. Overall Hazard Significance Even in the areas where a significant risk is possible, there are no documented events or other 411 data on which to base qualitative analysis. The distribution of risk is heavily skewed for Washington and Lincoln counties, as well. Therefore, similar to the subsidence hazard, it may be more appropriate for potentially impacted counties to prioritize landslide at a higher level than the rest of the planning area. Without further data, the significance of the hazard on a regional level is low. 4.2.12 Lightning Description Lightning is an electrical discharge between positive and negative regions of a thunderstorm. A lightning flash is composed of a series of strokes with an average of about four. The length and duration of each lightning stroke vary, but typically average about 30 microseconds. Lightning is one of the more dangerous weather hazards in the United States and in Colorado. Each year, lightning is responsible for deaths, injuries, and millions of dollars in property damage, including damage to buildings, communications systems, power lines, and electrical systems. Lightning also causes forest and brush fires, and deaths and injuries to livestock and other animals. According to the National Lightning Safety Institute, lightning causes more than 26,000 fires in the United States each year. The institute estimates property damage, increased operating costs, production delays, and lost revenue from lightning and secondary effects to be in • Northeast Colorado FINAL 55 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • excess of$6 billion per year. Impacts can be direct or indirect. People or objects can be directly struck, or damage can occur indirectly when the current passes through or near it. Intra-cloud lightning is the most common type of discharge. This occurs between oppositely charged centers within the same cloud. Usually it takes place inside the cloud and looks from the outside of the cloud like a diffuse brightening that flickers. However, the flash may exit the boundary of the cloud, and a bright channel, similar to a cloud-to-ground flash, can be visible for many miles. Cloud-to-ground lightning is the most damaging and dangerous type of lightning, though it is also less common. Most flashes originate near the lower-negative charge center and deliver negative charge to earth. However, a large minority of flashes carry positive charge to earth. These positive flashes often occur during the dissipating stage of a thunderstorm's life. Positive flashes are also more common as a percentage of total ground strikes during the winter months. This type of lightning is particularly dangerous for several reasons. It frequently strikes away from the rain core, either ahead or behind the thunderstorm. It can strike as far as 5 or 10 miles from the storm in areas that most people do not consider to be a threat. Positive lightning also has a longer duration, so fires are more easily ignited. And, when positive lightning strikes, it usually carries a high peak electrical current, potentially resulting in greater damage. The ratio of cloud-to-ground and intra-cloud lightning can vary significantly from storm to • storm. Depending upon cloud height above ground and changes in electric field strength between cloud and earth, the discharge stays within the cloud or makes direct contact with the earth. If the field strength is highest in the lower regions of the cloud, a downward flash may occur from cloud to earth. Using a network of lightning detection systems, the United States monitors an average of 25 million strokes of lightning from the cloud-to-ground every year. Geographic Extent Lightning can occur anywhere. Though a single point of lightning affects only a limited area, and an electrical storm at most affects only a significant area, the sheer possibility of an event makes the geographic hazard rating extensive. Previous Occurrences Tracking lightning events is not as simple. The NCDC database reports only 457 events for the entire State in the last 58 years, and statistics drawn above indicate, therefore, that these events are vastly underreported. The following table, drawn from the National Weather Service, depicts the average number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, per year, for each county in the planning area. Colorado consistently ranks in the top 5 for most lightning strikes overall, and in the top 4 for the most lightning-related deaths. The most recent numbers for lightning-related deaths by county are collected in the 2008 Colorado State Hazard Mitigation Plan. These numbers are reflected in the far right column of the table below. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 56 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Table 4.18.Average Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Strikes (in thousands) Per Year County Strikes(in thousands) Reported Injures/Deaths 1980-2005 Cheyenne 7.8 0/0 Kit Carson 9.5 0/2 Lincoln 18.1 0/1 Logan 8.5 0/1 Morgan 7.3 1/4 Phillips 2.7 0/0 Sedgwick 2.1 0/0 Washington 13.1 0/0 Weld 15.5 0/8 Yuma 10.4 0/0 10 County Total 95.0 1/16 Source: National Climatic Data Center and the 2008 Colorado State Hazard Mitigation Plan. Probability of Future Occurrences Lightning is considered a yearly event in the planning area and is expected to remain so. The total number of injuries and deaths (16) averaged across the collected data timeframe of 25 years indicates that, overall, the region experiences an injury or death related to lightning every 1.5 • years. The probability of any lightning strike in the region is 100% and highly likely as, in fact, thousands of strikes occur per year in the region. Injuries and deaths are more substantive variables to analyze. The risk that an individual will be injured or killed by lightning somewhere in the planning region in any given year is 68%, and the rating is highly likely. Magnitude/Severity Lightning strikes have many different potential impacts. Lightning impacts the safety of individuals directly, as people outdoors during electrical storms are vulnerable to being struck. As indicated above, the region experiences one injury or death related to lightning strikes every 1.5 years. In addition, lightning may strike and injure or kill livestock or other animals on pastures and fields, if they are unable to find shelter. This, in turn, negatively impacts the financial well-being of the livestock owner. While a single event may not be catastrophic, multiple injuries and deaths over repeated occurrences add up and increase the overall impact. In addition, lightning may ignite wildfires when striking dry fields or prairie lands. Wildfires are profiled in greater detail below, but are a potentially catastrophic hazard in the region. Lightning strikes to buildings may cause fires, impact and disrupt power supplies, damage electrical equipment in the building, and perhaps even injure occupants. Depending on the nature of the building damaged, lightning strikes may indirectly disrupt critical services. Service personnel, who may be forced to operate in exposed locations during a storm, are also at a heightened risk to lightning. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 57 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Lightning severity and magnitude depends on both what the lightning strikes and secondary impacts caused by the strike. For example, lightning strikes in a dry field have a critical or perhaps catastrophic severity potential if a significant wildfire is sparked. Lightning that leaps from cloud to cloud presents a negligible risk in the region, except in the presence of airplanes. Lightning which strikes people may cause severe injury and death (which merits a critical rating) but does not necessarily damage extensive amounts of property (which rates as limited). In general, then, a limited rating best reflects the majority of lightning-related events, with possible spikes into the critical range. Overall Hazard Significance Lightning strikes are an extremely common occurrence in Colorado. With a geographic rating of extensive for possibility of events, anywhere is considered vulnerable. Strikes that cause injuries or fatalities are also considered highly likely, though extensive property damages are not documented. This directly correlates to the limited magnitude and severity rating. Mitigation priority for lightning is mostly related to public education and should remain a consistent focus in the planning process, with a medium significance rating. 4.2.13 Noxious Weeds Description • Noxious weeds are a hazard across the entire State of Colorado, and particularly in the agricultural region included in the planning area. The Colorado Noxious Weed Act defines noxious weeds as "plant species that are not indigenous (native) to the state of Colorado and meet at least one of several criteria regarding their negative impacts upon crops, native plant communities, livestock, and the management of natural or agricultural systems. This definition applies to species listed by both state and local governing bodies." Native plants are also defined in the Act as "species that are indigenous to Colorado, may not be designated as noxious weeds by either state or local governments. Furthermore, the law does not permit distinctions to be made regarding the historical range or habitats of native species. Therefore, even a native species that expands its range within Colorado due to human influences and otherwise meets the descriptive criteria as a noxious weed may not be listed as such."21 All noxious weeds are aggressive and very competitive, stealing moisture, nutrients and sunlight from native, desirable plants. Established noxious weed compete with both the production of agricultural crops and natural grasses, plants and groundcover. Often, noxious weeds can out- compete native plants entirely, which impacts the entire ecology of the area. • 21 Colorado Environmental Pesticide Education Program,Noxious Weeds Information Website. Available online at http://www.cepep.colostate.edu/noxious.htm last accessed July 13, 2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 58 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Noxious weeds are divided into three categories. Weeds listed in the "AW" category are considered A-list weeds, and are those species which are designated for eradication by the Commissioner. List B species (those listed in the "BW" category) are those in which the Commissioner develops and implements state noxious weed management plans designed to stop the continued spread of the species. This category is assigned based on consultation with the state noxious weed advisory committee, local governments, and other interested parties. List C weeds (those categorized as "CW") are those species which the Commissioner will develop and implement state noxious weed management plans designed to support the efforts of local governing bodies to facilitate more effective integrated weed management on private and public lands. The goal of such plans will not be to stop the continued spread of these species but to provide additional education, research, and biological control resources to jurisdictions that choose to require management of List C species.22 Some of the more common are profiled below. Salt Cedar or Tamarisk (scientific name: Tamarix ramosissima) grows along the I-25 corridor in Weld County and along I-76 in Morgan and Logan Counties. There is also a significant concentration along the south-east border of Yuma and Kit Carson Counties. Salt Cedar is a small evergreen shrub or tree that grows between 5 and 20 feet in height. Mature plants can produce up to 600,000 seeds per year. The plant was introduced from central Asia, northern Africa, and southern Europe for ornamentation and stream bank stabilization. Salt Cedar can aggravate drought conditions by sucking up large volumes of water from riverbeds, increase the • salinity of surface soil (which renders the soil inhospitable to native plants) and aggravate flooding by becoming a barrier within the watercourse channels.23 Other noxious weeds such as Spotted Knapweed (Centaurea maculosa)24, Diffuse Knapweed (Centaurea dillusa)25, and Russian Knapweed (Centaurea repens)26 readily establish on any disturbed soil. The plants produce as many as 40,000 seeds per plant. The plants thrive in both wet and dry conditions, and out-compete livestock and wildlife forage plant species. Their early spring growth makes them competitive for soil moisture and nutrients and there is some evidence that they release chemical substances that inhibit surrounding vegetation. 22 Colorado Department of Agriculture,Noxious Weeds List.Available online at http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellita/Agriculture-Main/CDAG/1118305815759,last accessed July 13, 2009. 23 Colorado Department of Agriculture, Saitceder Fact Sheet. Available online at http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite?c=Document_C&cid=1178305839971&pagename=Agriculture- Main%2FDocument_C%2FCDAGAddLink last accessed on July 13, 2009. 24 Ibid.,Spotted Knapweed Factsheet. Available online at http://www.colorado.govics/Satellite?c=Document_C&cid=1178305727351&pagename=Agriculture- Main%2FDocument_C%2FCDAGAddLink last accessed July 13,2009. 25 Ibid.,Diffuse Knapweed Factsheet http://www.colorado.govics/Satellite?c=Document_C&cid=1178305727277&pagename=Agriculture- Main%2FDocument_C%2FCDAGAddLink last accessed July 13,2009. 26 Ibid.,Russian Knapweed Factsheet. Available online at • http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite?c=Document_C&cid=1178305839901&pagename=Agriculture- Main%2FDocument_C%2FCDAGAddLink last accessed July 13,2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 59 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 Field Bindweed (Convolvulus arvensis) is severely concentrated in Logan County, with long, narrow distributions along county roads in all other counties in the planning area. The weed is difficult to eradicate because of a root system that can penetrate the soil to a depth of 20 feet and which gives rise to numerous lateral roots. The plant seeds may remain viable in the ground for up to 40 years. It can adapt to different environmental conditions and can be found at altitudes as high as 10,000 feet. The plant is extremely competitive, and continual stress on the plant is necessary to ensure eradication.27 The tumbleweed is also a hazard in the planning region, and one that may exacerbate other hazardous conditions, particularly when combined with lightning, high winds, and dry climates. `Tumbleweed' is a common name for the occurrence of Russian Thistles, which are not technically included on the Colorado Noxious Weeds list. These plants are small, spiny bushes which reproduce by drying out and breaking off at the base of the stem during high winds, and then tumbling across flat, open spaces, scattering as many as 250,000 seeds per plant. The plant is native to the steppes of the Ural Mountains in Russia, but is now a common feature of North American prairies and deserts. The plant does not tolerate saturated soils for long durations of time, but is otherwise very hearty.28 • it. T I: . • w . • r p #r.. • r I r, ?A , I 4114 4 tt a Vatillarrarlik 4$4;ea giStriktoiCt ; Trataa,ditel 3w r.•. ., -r.r1 ri. •- re: i nn.• * I,I;1n [J 1Y ,-R Photo by Ted Billinger, Jr., Cheyenne Wells, CO The State Noxious Weed Act also requires that local governing bodies of counties and municipalities uphold a number of duties, responsibilities, and powers regarding the management 27 Ibid., Field Bindweed Factsheet. Available online at http://www.colorado.govics/Satellite?c=Document_C&cid=1178305839819&pagename=Agriculture- Main%2FDocument_C%2ECDAGAddLink last accessed July 13, 2009. • 28 Tumbleweeds: http://www.desertusa.com/mag01/may/papr/tweed.html. Northeast Colorado FINAL 60 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • of noxious weeds. A 2007 legislative update requires all local governing bodies to have a noxious weed management plan. The state also has a management plan, which outlines regional and general control concepts. Funding for addressing noxious weeds is available through the Colorado Noxious Weed Management Program, including assistance for implementation of preventative strategies and public education.29 Figure 4.12. Tumbleweeds in Cheyenne Wells and the "Weed-Catcher" tractor attachment they built to remove them f•••; . 4 A 1.- i . I --itly._, " , ..a% ' N • .a - 4.--1.1•! 4 III ♦ 1 . I •_ NNt It < �.? It . • +'r . / s III '/ a Y II c t S / _ 1 . - + _ • ys:Y ≥ ) y I `_ ...... rs a r/+ J, ( "psi s s j.v •tst Tumbleweeds cause hazards by inundating communities, contributing to or spreading grassland fires (particularly when fueled by winds) , and clogging drainage ways, which exacerbates flooding. An article published in the Greeley Tribune notes that tumbleweeds are actually considered refuse, and property owners are required to dispose of weeds collected on their property or face ticketing for littering♦3o Geographic Extent Distribution maps of noxious weeds can be found on the Colorado Department of Agriculture website (www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite/Agriculture-Main/CDAG/1178305815770) . Many noxious weeds are found in the planning region, as indicated in the description section above. 29 CEPEP, Noxious Weeds Website. Last accessed April 16, 2009. • 39 Mike Peters, "Tumbleweeds cometh - but sometimes at a price." Greeley Tribune (March 7, 2009). Northeast Colorado FINAL 61 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • The weeds profiled in this section are all commonly found in the planning area, and so the geographic rating would be extensive. Previous Occurrences Weeds are not tracked as other hazards are and so documentation is difficult to compile. The Planning Team was unable to find any documentation on the weed hazard in the 2004 planning process. This data gap is also present in the 2009 update, in that there are no direct links between weeds and verifiable damages. In common discussion, weeds are an annual problem that affects all residents to some degree within the planning area. County Weed Supervisors submit annual reports to the Colorado Department of Agriculture which indicate the infested acreage estimates per 9,000 acre QuarterQuad. A QuarterQuad is one quarter of a standard 1:24,000 USGS 7.5min topographic quadrangle. This data is compiled by the Colorado DOA and posted as maps on the website indicated above. These maps provide the only datasets for weed hazards currently available. Probability of Future Occurrences The same data gaps which impact the previous occurrence history makes predicting a future occurrence rating from a qualitative standpoint impossible. A recurrence interval cannot be calculated without data. However, in common knowledge, weed infestations exist annually, with some years worse than others, and the hazard is expected to continue, though the state weed mitigation programs may reflect an impact on the hazards in the future. This corresponds to an estimated highly likely future occurrence rating, with future data considerations required. Magnitude/Severity Without data that links weeds to damages, it is nearly impossible to determine magnitude and severity with any level of accuracy. Magnitude may be interpreted here as density of growth, but without a link to damages, such information remains out of context. As such, pending further analysis, the rating for this hazard is negligible. Overall Hazard Significance The hazard, while perhaps an extremely common event and a consistent nuisance, is not a considerably significant hazard for the planning region. The geographic extent overall is extensive, though actual distribution of noxious weeds varies by location. There is no consistent occurrence data and a probability rating cannot be calculated, but is estimated as highly likely. Current available information indicates the severity and magnitude of the events are negligible. While noxious weeds are undoubtedly a nuisance, pose hazards to the ecology of the region, and may pose a hazard, particularly in correspondence to grassland fires, to people and property, the hazard is addressed through other elements and efforts at a state and local level. The hazard is of • low significance to the region, in terms of this plan's scope and purpose. Northeast Colorado FINAL 62 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • 4.2.14 Straight Line Winds Description The planning area is also subject to significant, but non-tornadic (straight-line), winds. High winds, as defined by the NWS glossary, are sustained wind speeds of 40 mph or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or winds of 58 mph or greater for any duration." These winds may occur as part of a seasonal climate pattern or in relation to other severe weather events such as thunderstorms. Straight-line winds may also exacerbate existing weather conditions, as in blizzards, by increasing the affect on temperature and decreasing visibility due to the movement of particulate matters through the air, as in dust and snow storms. The winds may also exacerbate fire conditions by drying out the ground cover, propelling fuel, such as tumbleweeds, around the region, and increasing the ferocity of exiting fires. These winds may damage crops, push automobiles off roads, damage roofs and structures, and cause secondary damage due to flying debris. A corollary hazard of high wind events is blowing dust and sedimentation. A study published in part by Jason Neff at the University of Colorado indicates that the amount of dust in the Western region of the United States, in which the planning area is entirely contained, has increased significantly since the 1800s. Increased levels of dust in the atmosphere have been linked to increased rates of snowmelt, which may cause flooding and exacerbate drought conditions, or • prolong the recovery periods from drought.31 Blowing dust also damages homes, vehicles, property, and livestock, and causes erosion and reduces visibility, which may increase the danger to motorists and travelers. Geographic Extent The map below depicts wind zones for the United States. The map denotes that the majority of the planning area falls into Zone II, which is characterized by high winds of up to 160 mph. The far eastern edges of Sedgwick, Phillips, Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne Counties fall into Zone III, characterized by high winds of up to 200 mph. Finally, the edge of Weld County that runs along the 1-25 Corridor falls into a Special Wind Region. This special region is defined in the 2008 State Plan as the "Chinook winds [that] affect areas along the eastern slope of the Rocky Mountains during the winter." • 31 Richard Harris, "Dust Storms Threaten Snow Packs" on NPR Website. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyld=5415308 last accessed July 13, 2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 63 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 ill Figure 4.13. Wind Zones in the United States WIND ZONES IN THE UNITED STATES* :. r Wins Ildla •U es• ,. ; it S r •'� di I 03 S. •6•q•• _ • - - • Y• % to / r • tan tie • erase r r Set . M 1•r tor ;� -� °• '' Is. . w ones sir Zk �n cin *Sy GINIMIS OW al.taut arsaar • r Lai 1ep•II fYpY• V',• •lwO ! lane' P• Ate• •� -: S l.. • r �� - ArrM • • ran / �rir r- — — )ttiiflhi'. alai tears •e ♦ �' • • i i 11•Mr �C Ihmaeop• •Mw • • WPM. a a . . I • b.•• \ ç S, ,1 ,.--...,. . . � WIND ZONES • is- •� A �• f .h'1/4 ..u..... ( ZONE r•i\k:L..- vw w•.l . 1ZONEII ••O SS0THER CONSIDERATIONS ' •J•' (t60rnpni �• 1 q... .. 0 ZONE 111 %• `` Wind Region ion um- (200 man • Hun cane-Suwweptible Region ZONE IV • HAWAII* • ( ) :•�.,,•;!�J itt IA, + • Design Wind Speed mea urmg criteria < } r ,t' :Z arc consistent with ASCE 7.9® -• 3second gust - 33 bet abovo grade - Exposure C Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency The map below shows the distribution of high wind events throughout the planning area. 0 Northeast Colorado FINAL 64 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.14. Severe Wind Events in the Planning Area 1950-1996 • • • 1 1 • s.i �. • . 3 • .' + . ... • ►M = • r y A'1 Y •, • - • __ • t • ' I .. ' • • s: ..�• , •; Ions w�.E nee tom• '. '. .,. _ a -rl t u ••• • ti . • • • • ID • • 1- _ C•w. Mean •� r .` • e0 Cow" Mw ••eilan i1 • • • • 0 ens. perimeters!.0• .. - an • • • •. 4t i ► a. i - N i,, 5:1•-s • • I • a I W 4Plow E t0 0 70 14 Mils S The Planning Team has identified three distinct groupings of high winds within the planning area, identified on the map above by the red ovals. These groupings of wind events can be explained by two sets of circumstances. The first grouping, located vertically along the western IPedge of the planning area (Weld County) is close to the Front Range, the source of the significant down slope, chinook winds. This grouping parallels the identified "special wind region" identified in the previous map. The second set of groupings is located roughly parallel to the I- 70 corridor and diagonally along the I-76 corridor. Most communities within the planning area rest along the major Interstates, which indicates that the reporting of high-wind events is skewed to populated areas. However, this reporting pattern also indicates that these are the areas with the greatest vulnerability to high wind events. Regardless, it is clear that the entire planning region is subject to straight-line wind events. These events may range in occurrence, affecting areas as small as a few miles or as large as the entire regions. Wind is generally considered a regional phenomenon with gusts of more severe incidents built into the overall occurrence. As such, the geographic rating for the hazard is considered significant. Blowing dust is also considered in this assessment. Previous Occurrences The table below depicts the total number of high wind events reported and recorded by the NCDC in the planning region. A total of 1 ,290 events have been recorded since 1950, for an average occurrence rate of 22.4 events per year. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 65 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Table 4.19.Straight-Line Wind Events by County, 1950-2008 County Occurrences Cheyenne 119 Kit Carson 139 Lincoln 69 Logan 119 Morgan 146 Phillips 104 Sedgwick 78 Washington 127 Weld 244 Yuma 145 10 County Total 1,290 Source:National Climatic Data Center There is not a well documented history of windblown dust hazards in the planning area. One recent event, captured on the 9News website, indicates that a dust storm caused a 14-vehicle crash on the stretch of I-70 between Limon and Burlington. The event, which occurred on January 19, 2009, killed two and injured an additional five.32 • Probability of Future Occurrences There have been 1,290 reported straight-line events in the last 58 years in the planning region, which equates to a 100% chance of occurrence in the next year. There may be a margin of error in the event reporting, as the hazard may be regional and therefore a single event may impact multiple counties simultaneously and be double counted. This can be addressed by finding the average number of reported occurrences across the region, which equates to 129 events. Even so, the occurrence rate is 100%, so the probability of a future occurrence rating is highly likely. Magnitude/Severity Straight-line winds cause structural and economic damage during high wind events. Based on these likely events, damages include injuries and fatalities, as well as high dollar damage estimates. These factors contribute to a critical magnitude and severity rating. The more common events, which cause less damage and offer minimal documentation of injuries, are more limited in severity. Of course, the potential for a greater magnitude event remains, and the likely rating of such an event could be catastrophic. • 32 Jeffrey Wolf, "2 Killed After Dust Storm Causes Pileup on 470". 9News.com.Available online at http://www.9news.com/rss/article.aspx?storyid=108054 last accessed July 13, 2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 66 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Overall Hazard Significance Straight-line winds are frequent events in the region, and anticipated yearly during the spring and summer months. The entire planning area is vulnerable, reflecting the extensive geographic rating, though individual events are more limited in direct impacts. Past occurrences indicate that straight-line winds are highly likely to occur in the future, though more severe storms are only likely. Corresponding severity and magnitude ratings indicate that damaging storms are often critical, while the majority of events are only limited in severity. As development trends continue to change in the region, these ratings are likely to change. Straight-line winds warnings, mitigation projects for shelters and wind-resistant buildings, and public education are all critical aspects of the region, and the hazard remains a high priority. 4.2.15 Temperature Extremes Description Temperature extremes- both cold and hot- cause more deaths every year than any other disaster, including hurricanes 33 Both extreme cold and extreme heat are hazards present in the planning area. Extreme Cold • Extreme cold often accompanies a winter storm or is left in its wake. It is most likely to occur in the winter months of December, January, and February. Prolonged exposure to the cold can cause frostbite or hypothermia and can become life-threatening. Infants and the elderly are most susceptible. Pipes may freeze and burst in homes or buildings that are poorly insulated or without heat. Extreme cold can disrupt or impair communications facilities. In 2001, the NWS implemented an updated Wind Chill Temperature index, which is reproduced below. This index was developed to describe the relative discomfort/danger resulting from the combination of wind and temperature. Wind chill is based on the rate of heat loss from exposed skin caused by wind and cold. As the wind increases, it draws heat from the body, driving down skin temperature and eventually the internal body temperature. 33 Kevin A.Borden and Susan L.Cutter"Spatial Patterns of Natural Hazards Mortality in the United States." • International Journal o£Health Geographies 2008,7:64.Available online at http://www.ij- healthgeographics.com/content/7/1/64 last accessed July 13,2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 67 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.15. Wind Chill Temperature Chart Temperature (°F) Calm 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 S 0 -5 -10 - 15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 5 36 31 25 19 13 7 1 -5 -11 -16 - 2 -28 -34 -40 -46 -52 -57 -63 10 34 27 21 15 9 3 -4 -10 -16 -22 -28 -35 -41 -47 -53 -59 -66 -72 15 32 25 19 13 6 0 -7 -13 19 -26 -32 -39 -45 -51 -58 -64 -71 -77 20 30 24 17 11 4 -2 -9 -15 -22 -29 -35 -42 -48 -55 -61 -68 -74 -81 2 25 29 23 16 9 3 -4 -11 -17 -24 -31 -37 -44 -51 -58 -64 -71 -78 -84 a. E 30 28 22 15 8 1 -5 -12 19 -26 -33 -39 -46 -53 -60 -67 -73 -80 -87 13 35 28 21 14 7 0 -7 -14 -21 -27 -34 -41 -48 -55 -62 -69 -76 -82 -89 40 27 20 13 6 -1 -8 -15 -22 -29 -36 -43 -50 -57 -64 -71 -78 -84 -91 45 26 19 12 5 -2 -9 -16 -23 -30 -37 -44 -51 -58 -65 -72 -79 -86 -93 50 26 19 12 4 -3 -10 -17 -24 -31 -38 -45 -52 -60 -67 -74 -81 -88 -95 55 25 18 11 4 -3 -11 -18 -25 -32 -39 -46 -54 -61 -68 -75 -82 -89 -97 60 25 17 10 3 -4 -11 -19 -26 -33 -40 -48 -55 -62 -69 -76 -84 -91 -98 Frostbite Times 30 minutes 10 minutos I 5 minutes Wind Chill (°F) = 35.74 + 0.6215T - 35.750/0.16) + 0.4275T(Vo. '6) Where, T= Air Temperature (°F) V= Wind Speed (mph) Effective 1 1,'01/01 Source: National Weather Service Extreme Heat According to information provided by FEMA, extreme heat is defined as temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the average high temperature for the region and last for several weeks. Heat kills by taxing the human body beyond its abilities. In a normal year, about 175 Americans succumb to the demands of summer heat. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) , among natural hazards, only the cold of winter—not lightning, hurricanes, tornados, floods, or earthquakes—takes a greater toll. In the 40-year period from 1936 through 1975, nearly 20,000 people were killed in the United States by the effects of heat and solar radiation. In the heat wave of 1980, more than 1 ,250 people died. Heat disorders generally have to do with a reduction or collapse of the body' s ability to shed heat by circulatory changes and sweating or a chemical (salt) imbalance caused by too much sweating. When heat gain exceeds the level the body can remove, or when the body cannot compensate for fluids and salt lost through perspiration, the temperature of the body' s inner core begins to rise and heat-related illness may develop. Elderly persons, small children, chronic invalids, those on certain medications or drugs, and persons with weight and alcohol problems are particularly susceptible to heat reactions, especially during heat waves in areas where moderate climate usually prevails. The chart below illustrates the relationship of temperature and • humidity to heat disorders. Northeast Colorado FINAL 68 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.16. Heat Index Relative Humidity (%) F w 4i1 so, % sly c; Q _es 95 With Prolonged Expvsue 110 t _ _ _ 199 _ andla Physical Activity 1" "V1r- -4.---*— . Haat Index -- b it ia% 190 137 (Apparent �►..� 101 119 124 131 IS? I Pal side or sunstroke 102114 ,110 124 139L137 Temperature) ;►--- hilly likely 100109 114 118 124 129'1x6 jDanger 42 42 98 1 109 113117123114$ f 191: ` � 96 i�t:tp41n 112 116 121 1313 S��slrcke, muse cramps, r '94 97 100 46 110114119 124 211% arc br heel exha1, 1icn!likely 92 94 96 99 1 . 10811 '116 121 13 131 _ Extreme Caution 90 91 93 14 01 1 IL MI In 111 in 127M Surstrcle, niuscb cramps, 88 88 8i 91 93 95 98 10011311712186 85 8 88 69 91 93 95 97 1a M 84 83 6i 11;5 86 88 89 90 92 94 9S 98 100 1 1 Caution 82 $1 82 83 64 B4 85 86 66 99 90 91 93 Si Falig 4 pos a W 91 10 all el 81 62 82 83 84 B4 85 8& 86 V Source: National Weather Service Note: Since HI values were devised for shady, light wind conditions, exposure to full sunshine can increase HI values by up to 15°F. Also, strong winds, particularly with very hot, dry air, can be extremely hazardous. The NWS has in place a system to initiate alert procedures (advisories or warnings) when the Heat Index is expected to have a significant impact on public safety. The expected severity of the • heat determines whether advisories or warnings are issued. A common guideline for the issuance of excessive heat alerts is when the maximum daytime high is expected to equal or exceed 105°F and a nighttime minimum high of 80°F or above is expected for two or more consecutive days. Geographic Extent Like fog and many severe winter storms, extreme temperatures are often a regional occurrence and impact entire counties or significant portions of the planning region simultaneously. The 10 County Total reflected in the table below shows how events reported in multiple counties are often part of a larger, regional event. This corresponds to an extensive geographic rating. Previous Occurrences In a region known for extremely cold weather, exacerbated by high winds, temperature extremes and particularly severe cold present a danger to the inhabitants of the planning area. The NCDC database reflects the total number of extreme cold and extreme wind-chill events in the planning region between 1996 and 2008. This information is captured in the table below. S Northeast Colorado FINAL 69 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Table 4.20. Extreme Temperature Occurrences per County: 1950-2008 County Occurrences Cheyenne 3 Kit Carson 3 Lincoln 3 Logan 4 Morgan 3 Phillips 4 Sedgwick 4 Washington 4 Weld 2 Yuma 3 10 County Total 7 Source:National Climatic Data Center The Colorado Department of Public Health 8i Environment tracks the number of hospitalizations due to extreme cold on the Colorado Health Information Dataset. In Morgan County, 8 people were hospitalized due to extreme cold (at a rate of 2.4 per 100,000 people) from 1995 to 2006. In Weld County, there were 28 reported cases (at a rate of 1.2 per 100,000 people). Regionally, • the data reflects 75 reported cases with a rate of 1.2 per 100,000 people. These rates are considered significantly lower than the rate for the state. Statewide statistics indicate that 1,063 people (943 of whom were Colorado residents) were hospitalized for extreme cold injuries during this time period, with an occurrence rate of 1.9 per 100.000. The region with the highest rate is the Western Region (3.4 per 100,000), while the Northeastern and Foothills regions are both the lowest occurrence rate areas, with rates of 1.2 per 100.000. 34 Unfortunately, the health department does not track heat-related injury or mortality statistics in the State of Colorado by county. The NCDC database does not reflect any extreme heat incidents, outside of those captured as drought, for the region either. However, some extrapolation for the severity of extreme heat in the region can be drawn based on the national weather service heat index illustrated above. The Colorado Climate Center notes that the humidity of the eastern plains is very low, but that the highest temperatures in the state occur in this region. This indicates that while many hot days in the planning area fall in the 'danger' or 'extreme danger' area of the heat index, the low humidity may make the heat feel less uncomfortable on the population. It is possible; therefore, that the population may not notice the effects of extreme heat on themselves until serious injury occurs. Until consistent datasets are available, this remains an extrapolated hypothesis. • as Colorado Health Information Dataset, Injury Hospitalization Statistics.Available online at http://www.cdphe.state.co.us/cohid/injury.html accessed July 13, 2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 70 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • The 2008 State Plan includes information that shows the extreme temperatures in °Fahrenheit between 1961 and 1990, which is replicated for the planning area below: Table 4.21.Temperature Extremes by County, 1961-1990 Counties Extreme Low(`F) Extreme High (T) Cheyenne -30 108 Kit Carson -29 107 Lincoln N/A N/A Logan -35 110 Morgan -32 107 Phillips -33 109 Sedgwick -37 109 Washington -32 107 Weld N/A N/A Yuma N/A N/A Table Source:2008 Colorado State Hazard Mitigation Plan Probability of Future Occurrences Temperature variations are expected in the planning region. While extremes are usually • statistical outliers, they still present a useful picture of potential ranges. Heat wave records or other indications of extremely high temperature variations are not tracked in a manner that allows for analysis or reproduction. The cold events that are documented are clearly incomplete, as demonstrated by comparing the number of severe winter weather incidents to severe cold incidents. Generally, however, the common association of droughts and extreme heat and severe winter storms with extreme cold, lends itself to a generalized prediction of correlating future occurrence predictions. These events are expected to occur yearly, in general, and are considered highly likely. Magnitude/Severity Current data records are not complete, and so only best estimates may be offered in assessing the magnitude and severity of the hazard. In general, extreme temperatures do not directly damage critical infrastructures and buildings permanently, although an overly high demand on electricity (either for heating or cooling capabilities) may strain the infrastructure. First responders and other personnel subjected to exposure to such conditions may also experience a higher vulnerability to the events, which would raise the severity of an occurrence, but the data is not available to support the common-sense supposition. Available health records do indicate that extreme cold corresponds to higher injury and death rates to cold-related activities and/or injuries, and it is reasonable to assume that heat-related injuries have similar correspondence rates, though data is not tracked. Based on this information, on a regional level, this hazard is of • limited severity. Northeast Colorado FINAL 71 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Overall Hazard Significance Future efforts in tracking these events as standalone hazards, instead of subsets of other hazard events, may lead to better statistical understandings of the severity and probability of the hazard. Current studies, which offer interesting insights and hypotheses, are not sufficient to draw generalized patterns from in terms of mortality and injury rates. Rates of occurrence are tied to the overarching hazards during which extreme temperatures are expected to occur, such as severe winter weather or droughts. The geographic distributions are regional on a multi-county, and sometimes multi-state level, though the severities often vary between jurisdictions within the same county. Overall, the hazard is more associated with other corresponding hazards, such as drought and severe winter storms, and so as an individual effort, it may remain of low significance to the region. As more information becomes available, this rating may change. 4.2.16 Tornados Description Tornados According to the 2008 Colorado Hazard Mitigation plan, a tornado is a localized, violently destructive windstorm occurring over land, especially in the Midwestern U.S., characterized by a long, funnel-shaped cloud composed of condensation and containing debris that extends to the . ground and marks a path of great destruction. The National Weather Service Glossary provides further technical definition, stating that a tornado is "A violently rotating column of air, usually pendant to a cumulonimbus, with circulation reaching the ground. It nearly always starts as a funnel cloud and may be accompanied by a loud roaring noise. On a local scale, it is the most destructive of all atmospheric phenomena."35 Prior to February 1, 2007, tornado intensity was measured by the Fujita (F) scale. This scale was revised and is now the Enhanced Fujita scale. Both scales are sets of wind estimates (not measurements) based on damage. The new scale provides more damage indicators (28) and associated degrees of damage, allowing for more detailed analysis, better correlation between damage and wind speed. It is also more precise because it takes into account the materials affected and the construction of structures damaged by a tornado. The first table below shows the wind speeds associated with the original Fujita scale ratings and the damage that could result at different levels of intensity. The second table below shows the wind speeds associated with the Enhanced Fujita Scale ratings.3s 35 National Weather Service,National Weather Service Glossary.Available at http://www.weather.gov/glossary/last accessed July 13, 2009. • 3s The Enhanced Fujita Scale's damage indicators and degrees of damage can be found online at www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/ef-scale.html. Northeast Colorado FINAL 72 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Table 4.22.Traditional Fujita (F) Scale Fujita Scale Damage (F) Scale Wind Estimate(mph) Typical FO 73 Light damage. Some damage to chimneys; branches broken off trees; shallow-rooted trees pushed over; sign boards damaged. Fl 73.112 Moderate damage. Peels surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; moving autos blown off roads. Considerable damage. Roofs torn off frame houses; mobile F2 113-157 homes demolished; boxcars overturned; large trees snapped or uprooted;light-object missiles generated;cars lifted off ground. Severe damage. Roofs and some walls torn off well-constructed F3 158-206 houses;trains overturned; most trees in forest uprooted; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown. Devastating damage.Well-constructed houses leveled;structures F4 207-260 with weak foundations blown away some distance;cars thrown and large missiles generated. Incredible damage. Strong frame houses leveled off foundations FS 261-318 and swept away; automobile-sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters (109 yards);trees debarked; incredible phenomena will occur. Source:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center Table 4.23.Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale • Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale Enhanced Fujita Scale Wind Estimate(mph) EFo 65-85 EF1 86-110 EF2 111-135 EF3 136-165 EF4 166-200 EF5 Over 200 Source:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center Geographic Extent Tornados Below is a map displaying tornado paths across the planning area. This map is courtesy of the Colorado Department Emergency Management (CDEM) and appeared in the original 2005 plan. A more contemporary map of these events is not currently available. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 73 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Figure 4.17. Map of Tornado Paths in Planning Region 1950-1996 l ,� `,� ,t r_ a et 4. I . 1 _ ti ` t I Tornado paths 1950-1996 .�-- �' /'\ , 5 Fujita Intensity - . , , r ? .Y` 1 — A/3 2 s / ( / O Text County Names ‘ - _ CJ County boundaries 4 ._ Fire perimeters 2002 47., 17 A \ f` N T \ 7 y l - W � r E 7O 0 70 140 Miles - -- 1 S Source: Colorado Office of Emergency Management The map only shows a representative sample of the tornados that have occurred within the planning area. Tornados have occurred across the planning area frequently and are possible in all areas of the region. In terms of overall potential, then, the geographic rating would be extensive. However, tornados do not impact the entire region uniformly, as individual tornados vary in location, duration, extent, and size. Therefore, the individual geographic rating for a tornado would be limited. Previous Occurrences The table below indicates that over 822 tornadoes have occurred in the planning araea sinc 1950. The data indicates a wide range of occurrences on a per county basis. The Planning Team believes the data is more indicative of tornadoes being reported versus actual occurrences. The counties with the higher number of occurrences are also those counties with either higher population, greater damages experienced, closer proximity to Interstate Highways, or where official "Spotter Training" has been provided. Additionally, higher numbers of occurrences are reported in counties with the larger land areas. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 74 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Table 4.24.Tornado Occurrences by County, 1950.2008 County Occurrences Cheyenne 56 Kit Carson 75 Lincoln 81 Logan 76 Morgan 63 Phillips 38 Sedgwick 30 Washington 102 Weld 231 Yuma 70 10 County Total 822 Source:2009 County Profile Information Guides The vast majority of tornados affecting the planning area are rated between FO and F2, according to the data collected by the National Climactic Data Center. The table below presents all F3 or greater events in the planning area. According to available data, no events greater than F3 have been documented in the planning area. More detail on past tornados and their specific impacts • are referenced in the County Planning Elements. The Windsor tornado in May of 2008 has now become the tornado of record for the region, surpassing the damaging Limon tornado of 1990. The Windsor tornado resulted in a Presidential Disaster Declaration, one fatality, and over $147 million in property damage. Table 4.25.Tornados of F3 Magnitude Scale Date County Community Injured Killed Damage F3 5/22/2008 Weld Windsor 78 1 147,000,000 F3 7/5/2000 Logan Dailey 2 0 750,000 F3 6/31/1999 Lincoln Genoa 0 0 4,000,000 F3 5/30/1996 Washington Elba 0 0 300,000 F3 6/6/1990 Lincoln Limon 14 0 25,000,000 F3 5/10/1975 Washington 0 0 25,000 F3 8/15/1974 Logan 0 0 250,000 F3 6/27/1960 Sedgwick 3 2 250,000 F3 5/15/1952 Weld 5 0 25,000 Source:National Climatic Data Center • Northeast Colorado FINAL 75 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Probability of Future Occurrences Tornados Based on the information above, the planning area has experienced an average of 14.2 tornados per year, or an occurrence rating of 100%. On average, one out of every 91 tornados will be an F3, so the occurrence rate is 15%. This leads to a probability of future occurrence rating of highly likely for some level of tornado event and a rating of likely for a severe event. Magnitude/Severity The most damaging tornados in the region are the F3 categories, which are the most severe documented events available. Based on these likely events, damages include injuries and fatalities, as well as high dollar damage estimates. These factors contribute to a critical magnitude and severity rating. The more common events, which cause less damage and offer minimal documentation of injuries, are more limited in severity. Of course, the potential for a greater magnitude event remains, and the likely rating of such an event could be catastrophic. Straight-line winds also cause structural and economic damage with similar severity ratings corresponding to appropriate magnitudes of events. Overall Hazard Significance • Tornados are frequent events in the region, and anticipated yearly during the spring and summer months. The entire planning area is vulnerable, reflecting the extensive geographic rating, though individual events are more limited in direct impacts. Past occurrences indicate that tornados are highly likely to occur in the future, though more severe storms are only likely. Corresponding severity and magnitude ratings indicate that damaging storms are often critical, while the majority of events are only limited in severity. As development trends continue to change in the region, these ratings are likely to change. Tornado warnings, mitigation projects for safe rooms and wind-resistant buildings, and public education are all critical aspects of the region, and the hazard remains a high priority. 4.2.17 Wildfires Description The Colorado State Forest Service defines wildfires as "an open fire which spreads unconstrained through the environment. If not quickly controlled, the result can be a firestorm, often termed a `conflagration,' which destroys large amounts of property and threatens lives." Wildfires occur everywhere in Colorado. In the planning area, the most common kinds of wildfires are grassland fires, which occur along railroad tracks, in fields, and in the prairie land 37 Wildfires occur naturally (often through lightning strikes) and also from human causes, both • 37 CO-OEM, 2008 Hazard Mitigation Plan p.Hazards-36. Northeast Colorado FINAL 76 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • intentional and accidental. Examples of human-driven causes of wildfire include campfires, sparks from railroad cars or engines, discarded cigarette butts, and grills. Droughts may increase the number of wildfire incidents by drying out fuel sources. Insect epidemics and forest parasites may also increase the number and severity of wildfires. According to the 2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan, none of the counties in the planning region have current or in-progress Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs). However, in 2009 the Colorado State Legislature adopted Senate Bill 09-001, an act which amends Title 23, Article 31, Part 3, Section 1. This law now requires CWPPs for all unincorporated portions of a county where a fire hazard exists. Geographic Extent The 1999 Midlevel Assessment, conducted by the Colorado State Forest Service and Colorado Department of Emergency Management, examined the number of acres in each county for the State that were considered at a moderate to high-hazard risk for wildfire. This number was compared to the total acreage of the county to determine a percent of area at risk. Of the ten counties in the planning region, only Weld County was evaluated to have a moderate to high hazard risk area: Table 4.26.Wildfire Risk in Planning Area • Moderate to high Hazard County %Area at Risk (in Acres) Total Acres Weld 0.05% 1,403.47 2,570,639 Source:2008 Colorado State Hazard Mitigation Plan These findings are slightly contradicted in the county-specific profiles located in the 2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan. The table below documents the available information on urban/wildland interface communities available in 1990, as collected by the Colorado State Forest Services. This information is incomplete (there is not data for Cheyenne and Lincoln Counties) and does not reflect current development and population trends, but it is an interesting comparison to the previous table. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 77 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Table 4.27.Colorado State Forest Service Urban/Wildland Interface Communities by County, 1990 County Number of Subdivisions Acres Percent of Total Area Cheyenne Unknown Unknown Unknown Kit Carson 1 30 1.38% Lincoln Unknown Unknown Unknown Logan 6 24O 13.14% Morgan 7 28O 21.84% Phillips 1 4O 5.88% Sedgwick 3 180 33.1% Washington 1 4O 1.58% Weld 5 180 4.5% Total 24 99O 7.6% Source:2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan County Profiles As discussed previously, the information regarding fire risks in the planning area is fairly out of date. However, the information provides a useful starting point for establishing the risk of wildfires to the area. A second state-wide risk assessment conducted in 2002 indicates that all counties in Colorado have at least some areas with a moderate to high interface wildfire hazard, but that further research is needed.38 During the 2009 update to this plan maps were prepared for each county in the planning area that depicted the 2002 Wildland Urban Interface Assessment in relation to critical facilities, communities, and roads. These maps are located in the individual County Planning Elements. Ultimately, available data indicates that wildfires are possible at any location within the planning area. Based on the 1990 data, the geographic hazard rating is considered limited. However, as the data is outdated and incomplete, examination of previous occurrences and common analysis of the wildfire-compatible conditions indicates that the entire planning region may potentially experience a wildfire, which corresponds to a geographic hazard rating of extensive. Previous Occurrences The Karval Fire, which burned on January 19, 2009 in Lincoln County, was caused by carelessness. The fire burned more than 1,883 acres of prairie and croplands and burned for seven miles. 9 fire departments responded to the scene. No structures were lost and there were no reported injuries or fatalities. Damage and cost estimates are not currently available.39 In 2002, the Cheyenne County complex fire burned 15,000 acres, making it one of the larger wildfires documented in the County. Scattered thunderstorms in 2002 also ignited dozens of 38 CO-OEM, 2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan p Hazards-43. • 39 Lincoln County Emergency Manager, 2009 Community Profile Information Guide. Northeast Colorado FINAL 78 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • grass fires across eastern Weld, Logan, Morgan, and Washington Counties. The winds, strong surface pressure gradients, and extreme drought conditions allowed the fires to scorch over 12,000 acres of farmland in a short period of time. Many grassfires in Weld County reach several hundred acres in size and require mutual aid from neighboring fire departments, sometimes even from those in neighboring Wyoming and Nebraska. The 2008 State Hazard Mitigation Plan notes that a new housing development near the Cache la Poudre River Corridor has exposed more structures to threats from wildland fires as well. Table 4.28.Wildland Events by County, Dates Vary County(Dates) Occurrences Cheyenne (2005-2006) 7) Kit Carson(2005-2006) 3-4 per year Lincoln 1 Logan 1 Morgan(1971-2002) 420 Phillips 1 major fire in 1948; 60 minor fires per year. Sedgwick Numerous Washington 1 Weld 1 • Yuma (2006-2008) 913 Source: 2009 County Profile Information Guides Probability of Future Occurrences The location of a fire is almost impossible to predict, as the factors which contribute to a fire are hugely variable, including current weather conditions, associative climate, and the interactions of humans on the environment. Other triggers may include lightning, a particularly dry (or wet) growing season, and the exposure of the event to the population. It is reasonable to assume that wildland and grassland fires are a yearly occurrence in the region, even if they are not always documented and reported. The likelihood of a future occurrence, then, is predicted at 100%, or highly likely. Magnitude/Severity Similar to the probability assessments, the magnitude and severities of wildland and grassland fires depends on many factors, most of which make an accurate prediction difficult. This assessment may yield more useful results when examined on a local level. It is reasonable to assume that the magnitude and severity of a fire increases as the size of the fire, and its proximity to settled populations, increases. The Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) maps demonstrate this correlation. The likelihood that an event will result in permanent injuries and fatalities is difficult to quantify as well, but the possibility is always present. Damages depend, again, on Northeast Colorado FINAL 79 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • location. A fire in an urban setting or that wipes out significant crop yields results in a higher severity rating. A general assessment for the region may best be reflected in a limited rating. Overall Hazard Significance Despite the lack of records to document a damaging wildland or grassland fire event, the planning teams in the region consistently discussed fire hazards as a significant element in mitigation planning and preparedness. It was consistently discussed as a yearly occurrence with a huge hazard potential. Documentation concerns were discussed at the meetings as well, and noted as a potential area of improvement. The geographic rating for this hazard is extensive and the probability of future occurrences is considered highly likely. While the magnitude and severity for a general rating is only a limited assessment, it is reasonable to assume that the overall significance of the hazard is high, particularly based on the input from the planning teams around the region. • • Northeast Colorado FINAL 80 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • 4.3 Vulnerability Assessment Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the jurisdiction's vulnerability to the hazards described in paragraph (c)(2)(i) of this section. This description shall include an overall summary of each hazard and its impact on the community. Requirement§201.6(c)(2)(ii)(A): The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of the types and numbers of existing and future buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified hazard areas. Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(B): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of an] estimate of the potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures identified in paragraph (c)(2)(i)(A) of this section and a description of the methodology used to prepare the estimate. Requirement§201.6(c)(2)(ii)(C): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of] providing a general description of land uses and development trends within the community so that mitigation options can be considered in future land use decisions. 4.3.1 Methodology • The Northeast Colorado Multi-County Planning Committee (MCPC) conducted a Vulnerability Assessment to describe the impact that each hazard identified in the preceding section would have upon the planning area. This portion of the plan evaluates those risks where they are similar across the entire planning area, and where they vary from the risks facing the entire planning area. The vulnerability assessment quantifies, to the extent feasible, assets at risk to natural hazards and estimates potential losses. This section is a prelude to more detailed vulnerability and loss information captured in each County Planning Element (CPE). In the County Planning Elements that follow Chapter 6 there is a county-by-county accounting of historic hazard impacts. Actual impacts and associated losses of past occurrences are included within the "History of Recorded Losses" developed for each county. These "histories" confirm that the hazard poses some risk to that county, and describes, where data is available, how it has impacted the county. The county-by-county assessments also detail what is vulnerable to all hazards by describing the populations, the rate of population growth, and a general description of land-uses and development trends. Each county assessment also presents a listing of the total values (actual and/or assessed) of property at risk. Each CPE includes an estimate of losses to flood, and a qualitative analysis of risk to dam and levee failure and wildfire. The risk to these hazards as it varies within each county and incorporated community is also detailed in each CPE. Agriculture is a critical economic asset of all counties in the region, and often accounts for the highest disaster losses. Each CPE contains an analysis of potential losses from floods using HAZUS, and • multiple hazards based on an analysis of federal crop insurance records. Northeast Colorado FINAL 81 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • During 2004 the Planning Team determined that the general risk to all the natural hazards identified, with the exception of floods, are similar across the entire planning area. With the 2009 update this risk was re-evaluated by County. Each County Planning Element contains a County Hazard Summary table. The table is based on Table 4.1 that reflects the regional assessment which identifies and rates the significance of a variety of possible hazards. Significance was measured in general terms, focusing on key criteria such as the likelihood of the event, past occurrences, spatial extent, and damage and casualty potential. The worksheet reflects the regional assessments. Individual county assessments are located in each county planning element, and may reflect higher or lower assessments, based on the particular exposures, geography, and vulnerabilities of the area. Only the more significant hazards (high or medium) have a more detailed hazard profile and are analyzed further in this Vulnerability Assessment (to the extent possible) and in the County Planning Elements. The medium or high significance hazards assessed are: • Biological Hazards • Blizzards and Severe Winter Storms • Dam and Levee Failures • Drought • Flooding • Hailstorms • • Lightning • Straight-Line Winds • Tornadoes Table 4.29. Wildland &Grassland Fires The low significance hazards include: • Earthquake • Fog • Landslides • Land Subsidence • Noxious Weeds Table 4.30. Temperature Extremes Based on the 2009 hazard summaries it was determined that the risk varies across the region primarily with floods, dam and levee failures, earthquake, and land subsidence. Land subsidence ranked as low significance hazard regionally, but could be considered a medium significance hazard in Weld County. Weld County is also an exception in the region in regards to the potential for loss to all hazards, as it is the most developed and most populated, and largest in geographic area. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 82 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • The remainder of this section includes methodologies for estimating potential losses, and a discussion of regional trends, where possible. 4.3.2 Assets at Risk Total Exposure of Population and Structures Table 4.1 displays the estimated total population, housing units, and building value for each County in the region. Structure counts and values in this plan are based on two building inventories: one from each County's Assessor's Office and the other from FEMA's HAZUS-MH MR3. FEMA's HAZUS-MH MR3 (which is dated based on 2002 building inventory data by Census block, inflated to 2005 values). HAZUS-MH estimates the value of the building stock in the region to be approximately $26.3 billion. The HAZUS-MH may not as accurately represent the replacement value of the real estate in the County as some of the assessed valuations do, but it does present a standard baseline dataset for all the counties in the region. More detail on the HAZUS-MH and assessor's inventories can be referenced in each CPE. Regional Population and Building Inventory Summary %of Regional 2008 Total Building Building %of Regional County Population Housing Units Exposure" Value Population • Cheyenne 1,906 1,144 $254,640,000 0.97% 0.59% Kit Carson 7,590 3,557 $862,273,000 3.27% 2.36% Lincoln 5,286 2,406 $572,918,000 2.17% 1.64% Logan 20,780 8,737 $2,334,201,000 8.85% 6.46% Morgan 28,109 11,133 $2,401,887,000 9.11% 8.73% Phillips 4,601 2,059 $503,706,000 1.91% 1.43% Sedgwick 2,467 1,390 $367,276,000 1.39% 0.77% Washington 4,630 2,366 $196,035,000 0.74% 1.44% Weld 236,857 90,292 $17,843,247,000 67.66% 73.58% Yuma 9,669 4,295 $1,035,469,000 3.93% 3.00% Total 321,895 127,379 $26,371,652,000 'HAZUS-MH MR3 Critical Facilities, Infrastructure, and Other Important Community Assets A critical facility may be defined as one that is essential in providing utility or direction either during the response to an emergency or during the recovery operation. FEMA's HAZUS-MH loss estimation software uses the following three categories of critical assets. Essential facilities are those that if damaged would have devastating impacts on disaster response and/or recovery. High potential loss facilities are those that would have a high loss or impact on the community. Transportation and lifeline facilities are a third category of critical assets. Examples of each are • provided below. Northeast Colorado FINAL 83 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Critical Facilities, Definitions and Examples High Potential Loss Essential Facilities Facilities Transportation and Lifelines Hospitals and other medical facilities Power plants Highways, bridges,and tunnels Police stations Dams and levees Railroads and facilities Fire stations Military installations Airports Emergency operations centers Hazardous material sites Water treatment facilities Schools Natural gas,facilities and pipelines Shelters Communications facilities Day care centers Nursing homes Main government buildings Source:FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 A fourth category called Other Assets has been added to capture items that do not fit the above categories. This could include economic assets at risk may include major employers or primary economic sectors, such as, agriculture, whose losses or inoperability would have severe impacts on the community and its ability to recover from disaster. After a disaster, economic vitality is the engine that drives recovery. Every community has a specific set of economic drivers, which are important to understand when planning ahead to reduce disaster impacts to the economy. • When major employers are unable to return to normal operations, impacts ripple throughout the community. HMPC members were asked to identify the assets in their respective jurisdictions that they considered to be critical facilities or of particular importance/value. Assets for each county are identified in their respective CPE. Available critical facility inventories and GIS databases of critical facilities and infrastructure were limited in most of the counties. The 2004 version of this plan limited the critical facility inventory to only those that were in known floodplains. Critical facilities were not identified outside of the floodplains because they could be subject to any of the other hazards on a hit-or- miss basis. The Planning Team felt that it is unlikely that protective measures for such facilities, (e.g., protecting a community water tower from a tornado) would be technically feasible or cost- effective. Where there is some feasibility, (e.g., protecting power supplies with sturdier poles spaced closer together), those actions are already being taken. Within the floodplains there is a quantifiable risk to these facilities, and potentially cost-effective protective solutions, (e.g., building a floodwall around a power substation, or protecting a school with temporary shields and closures). During the 2009 update an effort was made to develop more comprehensive inventories of critical facilities in each County. The best available data on a regional basis was from statewide GIS inventories. This data came from multiple sources: the State of Colorado, CDOT (Colorado • Northeast Colorado FINAL 84 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Department of Transportation) for roads and highways as well as Airports, CDPHE (Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment) for Hospitals and Health Care, HSIP (Homeland Security Infrastructure Program, provided through the Governor's Office of Information Technology) for Fire Departments, CO DOLA/HIFLD (Colorado Department of Local Affairs and Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data) for Emergency Operations Centers and the National Bridge Inventory from within HAZUS-MH. Even this data has some limitations including lack of complete or comprehensive data and values such as replacement costs. Some data layers were supplemented by HAZUS-MH critical facility layers, such as natural gas facilities, communications facilities, and are noted below. These databases were used in vulnerability assessments for hazards such as wildfire and flood, and are represented in maps and tables in the vulnerability by hazard section that follows. The data layer themes and their source are noted in Table 4.3 below. Summary of Critical Facilities in GIS Facility Type Count Source Airports(paved) 16 CDOT Bridges 1,432 HAZUS-NBI Communications Facilities 31 HAZUS Electrical Generation/Distribution/Power Plants 12 HAZUS Police Stations 52 State-HSIP Fire Stations 85 State-HSIP EOCS 13 CO DOLA/HIFLD Wastewater Treatment 16 HAZUS Schools 211 State Hospitals 13 CDPHE Health Care Clinics 156 CDPHE Hazardous Materials 76 HAZUS Natural Gas Facilities 161 State-HSIP Scour Critical Bridges Included with HAZUS-MH is a database of bridges called the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) developed by the Federal Highway Administration. One of the database items is a "scour index", which is used to quantify the vulnerability of a bridge to scour during a flood. Bridges with scour index between 1 and 3 are considered "scour critical", or a bridge with a foundation element determined to be unstable for the observed or evaluated scour condition. Yuma County Road and Bridge staff pointed out that one bridge that should be noted as "Scour Critical" was not represented as such in the NBI data. The date of the database 2001, thus it may not reflect current conditions, but is the best available data. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 85 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Historic Sites Each CPE provides a listing of the sites registered on either the federal or state Register of Historic Places. This is included because it is important for communities to have an awareness of cultural resources that could be impacted by natural hazards, and because if they are, the rules for repairing and rebuilding historic structures differ from others. Not having an inventory of historic resources available when disaster strikes can prolong a community's recovery and aggravate economic recovery. 4.3.3 Growth and Development Trends Table 2.1 in the Community Profile shows the estimated total population and population growth projects for each County in the region. The State Demographics Office (SDO) predicted that the overall region would grow at a relatively slow rate from 2000 through 2035. Weld County was predicted to grow the fastest, and Cheyenne County was predicted to grow the slowest. The 2008 estimated population for the entire planning region, according to the U.S. Census, is 322,227, which is an increase in growth of 20.7% in 8 years since 2000. The bulk of continued growth in the region is expected to occur in Weld County, which is expected to more than double its 2005 population from 228,011 to 554,190 in 2035. Morgan County also will have more modest population growth. • A recent development trend in the Region is infrastructure for alternative energy, exploiting the region's argricultural, wind and other natural resources. Morgan County has permitted 2 ethanol plants and one biodiesel in 2008-2009, with a building permit expected to be issued for the biodiesel by the end of 2009. The High Plains Renewable Energy (HPRE) project has received approval from BNSF rail to install a rail loop which should help attract new industry to Morgan County. The County is working with HPRE to obtain stimulus grant money to construct the rail. There is also some possible experimentation with methane gas power (unconfirmed). Yuma County also has a large ethanol facility. Concerns about specific hazards and future development are addressed by hazard in the following section. 4.3.4 Estimating Potential Losses by Hazard Each of the following hazards was discussed in the Hazard Profiles section. Here, the hazards are described in terms of their potential for future losses in the planning area to both existing development, and potential future development, in quantitative terms where possible. For those hazards with a high or moderate significance, this section provides the following information for each hazard: vulnerability overview, potential losses to existing development, and potential losses to future development. A summary vulnerability overview is provided for those hazards with a low planning significance. These planning significance levels take into account the entire planning area. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 86 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Agriculture is an important aspect of the Region's economy, and often the majority of hazard losses are to crops and livestock. Federal Crop Insurance Data represents losses from multiple hazards that could include: biological hazards, flooding, drought, hailstorms, noxious weeds, temperature extremes, tornados, wildfires and straight-line winds. An overview of these losses is presented in the following table, but further detail on the loss by particular hazard was not available. Federal Crop Insurance Coverage and Losses 1980-2007 Average Liability Federal Annual (amount of Total Premium Farmer Paid Amount Paid Amount Paid County coverage) Premium Subsidy Premium in Claims in Claims Cheyenne 283,261,174 67,423,980 30,923,607 26,500,373 91,295,402 3,260,550 Kit Carson 866,176,771 112,917,859 58,679,921 54,237,938 157,143,297 5,612,261 Lincoln 163,580,310 30,172,770 16,716,145 13,456,625 35,128,523 1,254,590 Logan 434,713,354 47,897,730 23,354,361 24,543,369 45,072,380 1,609,728 Morgan 380,703,905 37,799,950 19,320,525 18,479,425 42,561,929 1,520,069 Phillips 495,217,761 50,137,832 24,608,422 25,529,210 49,149,258 1,755,331 Sedgwick 259,483,787 24,945,557 12,187,879 12,757,678 19,934,142 711,934 Washington 442,046,102 60,728,713 32,384,833 28,343,880 61,645,859 2,201,639 • Weld 691,542,643 62,541,083 32,975,625 29,565,458 70,429,743 2,515,349 Yuma 1,182,065,828 106,230,967 53,551,935 52,679,032 71,872,922 2,566,890 Totals 5,198,791,635 600,796,441 304,703,253 286,092,988 644,233,455 23,008,341 Source:USDA Risk Management Agency Biological Hazards Planning Significance: Moderate. The impact that wildlife, and more notably, insects can have upon the planning area is substantial. The fact that there have been two state disaster declarations to combat the impact of grasshopper infestations is indicative of the potential for future loss. A widespread infestation of agricultural products could seriously impact the economic base of the planning area. Potential Losses to Existing Development Buildings, Infrastructure, and critical facilities are not vulnerable to this hazard. It impacts products of agriculture and impacts are primarily economic in nature, rather than structural impacts. Rough estimates of potential direct losses from agricultural infestation fall in a range of 1 to 50 percent of annual crop receipts for a County and/or 1 to 75 percent of livestock receipts. However, additional data is not available regarding historical uninsured or unclaimed losses or general reductions in crop and livestock yields. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 87 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • In 2009 much of the grasshopper infestation concerns were mitigated with a combination an aggressive aerial spraying program sponsored by the FSA in conjunction with timely rains that drowned grasshopper larvae. West Nile Virus has and will continue to have impacts on human health in the region. As of April 2009, there have been 922 illnesses and 12 human deaths in the 10 county planning area since 2003. 68% of the illnesses and 83% of the deaths occurred in 2003. Averaged over the 6 year period the region can expect 154 illnesses and 2 deaths any given year, though the trend indicates that the initial influx of the disease in 2003 was the most severe. There are several strategies being utilized in combating West Nile virus; spraying areas where mosquitoes breed, inoculating horses and livestock in areas where the virus has been confirmed, general public education, and wearing clothing that minimizes exposure of the skin. Tracking expenses related to combating West Nile Virus is difficult, primarily because the cost of inoculations is borne by the owner of the livestock, and record keeping of the distribution and use of the vaccine is sketchy. On the other hand, however, expenses related to spraying are trackable - and Weld County's appropriation of $500,000 specifically for spraying to protect against WNV is indicative of the magnitude of the costs. Future Development • Future development is not expected to be significantly impacted by this hazard, though population growth in Weld County could increase exposure to West Nile Virus. Blizzards and Severe Winter Storms Existing Development The threat to public safety is typically the greatest concern when it comes to impacts of winter storms. But these storms can also impact the local economy by disrupting transportation and commercial activities. Winter storms are occasionally severe enough to overwhelm snow removal efforts, transportation, livestock management, and business and commercial activities. The Region can experience high winds and drifting snow during winter storms that can occasionally isolate individuals and entire communities and lead to serious damage to livestock populations and crops. Winter storms contribute directly to other hazards in this plan: extreme temperatures (cold). Travelers on highways in the Region, particularly along remote stretches of road, can become stranded, requiring search and rescue assistance and shelter provisions. When the Interstate highways are closed, this action cuts the provision of primary supplies (gasoline and food) to the communities, and also strands thousands of motorists who were "passing through" for up to several days. In many cases, when the hotel rooms in one community "fill up," the interstates are then closed back to the next community with available lodging. This is to prevent over- . Northeast Colorado FINAL 88 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 burdening of communities already hosting motorists, and to keep those still enroute from becoming stranded "in between." - - - - „ _ . . s Proactive and coordinated road closures enacted by CDOT have been successful in mitigating impacts to travelers, and reduced shelter demands. In Sedgwick County I-80 is closed by the State of Nebraska when I-76 in Colorado closes, and this helps to alleviate large populations needing shelter in Julesburg. In Yuma County shelters have been designated and special needs individuals have been identified that may need assistance during winter storms. Research presented in Section 4.2 Blizzards and Severe Winter Storms yielded significant impacts from this hazard in the past. Structural losses to buildings are possible and structural • damage from winter storms in Colorado has resulted from severe snow loads on rooftops. Older buildings are more at risk, as are buildings with large flat rooftops (often found in public buildings such as schools) . The County' s elderly population is a potentially vulnerable demographic during severe winter storms. The commuting population, particularly those that commute to the Denver metropolitan area from Weld and Morgan Counties, is another demographic potentially at risk during winter storm events. Smaller communities prevalent in the region may become isolated during winter storm events, Persons that choose to live in these areas are generally self-sufficient, or should be, as government and emergency services may be limited during a severe winter storm. Another common impact of blizzards and severe winter storms on the planning area is the loss of power. The weight of heavy continued snowfall and/or ice accumulating on power lines often brings them to the ground causing service disruptions for thousands of customers. This can cause a loss of community water and sewer services, as well as the supply of gasoline, as these services almost always require electrical pumps. In addition, prolonged power outages can mean loss of food to grocery stores, large facilities that provide feeding services (such as prisons, hospitals and nursing homes) , and restaurants. The county-by county "History of Hazard Losses" identifies specific impacts (the monetary impact and number of downed power poles) where the data was available. Estimating future • dollar losses is difficult though because one never knows which counties, and which areas within Northeast Colorado FINAL 89 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • those counties, will be impacted by any particular storm. What can be stated is that future severe winter storms will continue to occur, and most losses will be related to snow removal, roadway closures, and loss of electrical power. Future Development Future residential or commercial buildings built to code should be able to withstand snow loads from severe winter storms. Population and commercial growth in Weld County will increase the potential for complications with traffic and commerce interruptions associated winter storms. As building and population trends continue to increase in Weld County, more persons will be exposed to the winter storm hazard, therefore increasing pressure on local government snow removal and emergency services. Dam and Levee Failure Existing Development Planning Significance: High. Based on the information in the hazard profile in section 4.2, the impacts to existing development from a dam failure in the region could be catastrophic. The impacts to certain counties in the Region from a dam failure will be similar in some cases to those associated with flood events (see the flood hazard vulnerability analysis and discussion). The biggest difference is that a catastrophic dam failure has the potential to result in a much • greater loss of life and destruction to property and infrastructure due to the potential speed of onset and greater depth, extent, and velocity of flooding. Another difference is that dam failures could flood areas outside of mapped floodplains. Determining the vulnerability to flooding from dam failure differs from riverine flooding in that the land areas that would be inundated in the event of a dam failure are not typically displayed on the FEMA and CWCB flood hazard area maps. This is because the retention structures, whether the primary function of the facility is for irrigation or flood control, are usually some distance upstream from the communities and users they provide for, and are in areas that have not otherwise been mapped. Colorado law, however, requires that Class 1 dams have Emergency Action Plans (EAP), and that failure inundation maps be prepared as part of the those plans. The Planning Team did confirm the existence of EAPs for the High Hazard dams. The emergency call-down notification lists for downstream property-owners serves as the initial vulnerability assessment for dam failure. The level of effort required by the communities to develop the inventories of the 1% mapped floodplain precluded completing detailed vulnerability assessments for the dam failure inundation zones. Detailed dam failure inundation zone inventories were a recommendation of this plan of the 2004 plan. During the 2009 update, an analysis of the communities exposed to the dam failure hazard, and the relative downstream impacts, are captured in each CPE that have dam failure risk. These CPE's include a table that indicates how dam failure risk varies among communities in the • county, based on a visual interpretation of the dam location, the drainage or stream that would be Northeast Colorado FINAL 90 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 . affected, and the proximity of the downstream community to the floodplain of the impacted stream. The locations of these dams are shown in maps. The table indicates the first downstream community impacted by a dam upstream of it. In some cases additional communities downstream would be impacted as well. Another improvement to the plan includes an assessment of dams outside the planning area that would impact the planning area if they were to fail. See the text in Section 4.2 hazard profile for a general discussion of this issue. The Weld CPE contains a more detailed assessment of this issue. Losses from a dam failure will vary based on the dam involved, warning time, and time of day, but the potential exists for property losses into the billions and multiple deaths and injuries. Impacts to critical facilities would be similar to those identified in the flood vulnerability analysis. Based on the information collected in Section 4.2 of this hazard's profile, known levees in the region exist in Weld, Morgan, and Yuma counties. The most at-risk community is suspected to be the Town of Weldona, most of which is protected by a levee. The HAZUS model does not account for levee protection, thus the HAZUS flood modeling results displayed in each CPE and on the associated maps is representative of a levee failure or overtopping scenario. This is discussed in more detail in each CPE. Future Development • It is important that communities in the region keep the dam failure hazard in mind when permitting new development, particularly downstream of the high and significant hazard dams present in the Counties, and most particularly in Weld County. There are numerous low hazard dams in the Region. These could become significant or high hazard dams if development occurs below or downstream of them. Drought Existing Development Planning Significance: High. Based on the Region's recent multi-year droughts and Colorado's drought history, it is evident that the entire Region is vulnerable to drought. Similar to blizzards and severe winter storms, drought impacts such a vast area, that the MCPC considers the risk of drought to be the same across the entire planning area. The risk of occurrence does not vary from county to county, but the impacts will vary based on the specific jurisdiction's water supply needs. With the majority land area of the Region used for agricultural purposes, the planning area has significant exposure to this hazard. In addition to economic and public water supply impacts, soil erosion, dust, and wildfire hazard are also exacerbated by drought conditions. The agricultural industry of the Region will experience hardships, including agricultural losses, and livestock feeding expenses and deaths. Water supply issues for municipal, industrial, and • domestic needs will be a concern for the entire Region during droughts. Most of the Region's Northeast Colorado FINAL 91 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • water resources come from ground water, surface water reservoir storage, and the South Platte River. Vulnerability to low flows on the South Platte River, which drains from the Rocky Mountains to the west of the region, increases with consecutive winters of below-average snow pack. While widespread, the losses associated with drought are often the most difficult to track or quantify. While FEMA requires the potential losses to structures to be analyzed, drought does not normally have a structural impact. Drought can indirectly lead to property losses as a result of it contributing to extreme wildfire conditions (see discussion on wildfire vulnerability). This, combined with the potential for significant impacts to water intensive activities such as agriculture, wildfire suppression, municipal usage, commerce, tourism, and wildlife preservation, can lead to widespread economic ramifications. The ramifications from the 2002 drought included: • Impacted the cattle industry by forcing ranchers to sell off their herds because they can't provide enough feed due to the drought impact upon feed-crops. This has additional impacts in that there are now fewer mothering cows, creating an ongoing downward spiral in herd population. Drought has further impacted the herds because ranchers take their cattle to feed lots earlier in order to reduce the amount of feed they need to have, and to use less electricity to power the irrigation pumps used to grow the feed. • Created an increase in the rates for hydroelectric power. • Affected the population and distribution of wildlife. This, in turn, has affected the economy due to a lower than normal number of hunters and fishermen. • Affected wildfire by providing a greater fuel source (dried out plants) and diminished fire- fighting capacity (the closing off of wells has left less water to fight fires). • Increased the volume of noxious weeds, because they are now growing in areas that no longer can support crops. While the crop insurance loss data covers a variety of perils, it is indicative of the types of agricultural impacts that drought can have upon the planning area. Available crop insurance data indicates over $644 million has been paid to the region's agricultural landowners in insurance claims between 1980 and 2007. It is reasonable to assume that a significant amount of this is due to drought-related losses. While the crop insurance loss data covers a variety of perils, it is indicative of the types of agricultural impacts that drought can have upon the planning area. Assuming at least 50% of the losses are drought-related, an average annual loss estimate can be calculated. For the region this is calculated by ($644,000,000/2)/27years, which equates to $11.9 million in average annual agricultural losses for the region. Future Development Drought vulnerability will increase with future development as there will be increased demands for limited water resources. Future growth in the region will mean more wells and more demands • on groundwater resources. Given that new development is limited in scale, future development Northeast Colorado FINAL 92 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • is unlikely to exacerbate drought conditions in the short term, with the exceptions being Weld County and to a degree Morgan County. Flood Existing Development Planning Significance: High. Flooding and floodplain management are significant issues in the Region and some of the incorporated areas. The significance of this hazard, the requirements for Flood Mitigation Assistance plans, and the availability of digital hazard data in GIS drove the development of a detailed vulnerability assessment that is discussed in the following pages. Methodology Special Treatment of Flood Hazards:Inventory of Flood Hazard Areas The 2004 version of this plan noted that the vulnerability to floods was treated differently from the other hazards in this plan because flood risk specifically varies from place to place. Also floods are one of the few hazards within the planning area where it can reasonably be predicted where they will occur. This is also because each floodplain, while displaying the 1% annual chance event, is different from community to community. The floodplains vary in size and depth of flooding, as well as being populated with a different number of structures and community • facilities, and with a differing assessed value. During the 2004 development of this plan each County and incorporated community within the planning area that participates in the NFIP was asked to conduct a flood hazard area inventory that included: • The types and numbers of buildings (residential, commercial, and manufactured housing) in the identified floodplain, • The actual values of these buildings, so that an estimate of the potential dollar losses could be made, • The types and locations of critical facilities within each identified floodplain, and • The number of structures uninsured against flood through the NFIP. Such flood hazard inventories are useful in several ways. The Planning Team hopes that these inventories: • Characterize the extent of each community's exposure to potential flood losses, • Determine if adequate flood insurance coverage is in place, • Determine which buildings, occupants and critical facilities are at-risk, and • Help identify appropriate types of mitigation measures For the most part, however, the FEMA/NFIP paper maps were utilized manually to conduct the floodplain inventories. The limitations to this inventory include: • Northeast Colorado FINAL 93 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • • It does not capture the risk to counties or communities that do not have mapped floodplains • Some Counties with mapped floodplains in the unincorporated area cover large geographic expanses, making a structure inventory difficult. However the county-by-county assessments and community flood hazard area inventories indicate that most of the floodplains outside the incorporated communities are undeveloped, as a general rule, in the Region. As is required for participation in the NFIP, each participating community has an official map designating the Special Flood Hazard Areas. Within each county-by-county accounting of hazard vulnerability, there is a list of the official flood hazard map panel #'s. Official flood hazard maps are not included with this plan, due to their total number and volume. These maps, however, are available through each community's Building or Planning Department or at msc.fema.gov Within the entire planning area, Morgan County is the only county that has "Q3" (digitized) flood data available. Morgan County is developing their GIS capability, which will allow them to use this data. Some communities (Weld County, Sterling, Limon, and Brush) have GIS, CADD, or other computer assisted graphic capabilities where they can display, merge or otherwise manipulate their specific floodplain data to facilitate the floodplain inventories that were completed. Digital Flood Insurance Rate maps (DFIRMs) are under development in Weld County but were not available during the plan update in 2009. Morgan County's DFIRM should • be completed in 2010. During the 2009 update the MCPC used HAZUS-MH to quantify the potential flood losses to the county and cities in the Region. An approximate 100-year floodplain was generated for major rivers and creeks in each county in the region (those with a 10 square mile minimum drainage area). A USGS 30 meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM) was used as the terrain base in the model. HAZUS-MH produces a flood polygon and flood-depth grid that represents the base flood. While not as accurate as official flood maps, such as digital flood insurance rate maps, these floodplain boundaries are suitable for use in GIS-based loss estimation. Potential losses to the county were analyzed with HAZUS-MH, based on Census Block-based buildings and population inventory and the flood hazard data. HAZUS-MH provides reports on the number of buildings impacted, estimates of the building repair costs, and the associated loss of building contents and business inventory. Building damage can cause additional losses to a community as a whole by restricting the building's ability to function properly. Income loss data accounts for business interruption and rental income losses as well as the resources associated with damage repair and job and housing losses. These losses are calculated by HAZUS-MH using a methodology based on the building damage estimates. Building damage is estimated by Census Block based on the average depth of flooding within a given Census Block. Flood damage is directly related to the depth of flooding. HAZUS-MH uses depth-damage functions to model the losses. For example, a two-foot flood generally results in about 20 percent damage to the structure (which translates to 20 percent of the structure's replacement value). The results of • Northeast Colorado FINAL 94 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • the loss estimation are summarized in the following table. Each CPE includes more detail on the loss, including maps and tables that detail how the losses vary by jurisdiction. When comparing the county-by-county HAZUS runs on a regional level there is a potential for $437 million in losses. Weld, Morgan, and Logan Counties have the highest potential for flood losses. HAZUS-MH Flood Loss Estimation by County Cost Cost Capital Rental Percent Inventory Relocation Wage Total Loss of County Building Contents Loss($) Loss(S) Related Income Loss(S) (S) Regional Damage(S) Damage(S) Loss(S) Loss(S) Loss Weld 83,759,000 107,282,000 6,407,000 230,000 294,000 68,000 1,398,000 199,438,000 46% Morgan 39,230,000 55,272,000 2,206,000 106,000 195,000 37,000 431,000 97,477,000 22% Logan 22,057,000 29,127,000 942,000 122,000 98,000 36,000 584,000 52,966,000 12% Yuma 11,055,000 17,111,000 1,121,000 30,000 65,000 9,000 152,000 29,543,000 7% Phillips 9,613,000 16,702,000 936,000 38,000 85,000 17,000 392,000 27,783,000 6% Lincoln 2,936,000 5,177,000 107,000 10,000 6,000 3,000 681,000 8,920,000 2% Washington 3,247,000 3,348,000 179,000 - 5,000 - 19,000 6,798,000 2% Cheyenne 2,435,000 3,573,000 63,000 6,000 9,000 - 65,000 6,151,000 1% Sedgwick 2,483,000 2,444,000 81,000 9,000 11,000 - 51,000 5,079,000 1% • Kit Carson 1,449,000 1,483,000 125,000 - - - 3,000 3,060,000 1% Total 178,264,000 241,519,000 12,167,000 551,000 768,000 170,000 3,776,000 437,215,000 100% Source:HAZUS-MH-MR3 Limitations Default HAZUS-MH data was used to develop the loss estimates. Thus, the potential losses derived from HAZUS-MH, the best available data, may contain some inaccuracies. The building valuations used in HAZUS-MH MR3 are updated to R.S. Means 2006 and commercial data is updated to Dunn & Bradstreet 2006. There could be errors and inadequacies associated with the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of the HAZUS-MH model. The damaged building counts generated by HAZUS-MH are susceptible to rounding errors and are likely the weakest output of the model due to the use of census blocks for analysis. Agricultural Losses Agricultural losses were included in the HAZUS-MH analysis. The HAZUS-MH model assumes a short duration and slow rise flood when estimating losses and does not account for high velocity flash floods. Loss estimates are based on United States Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) damage modifiers. The HAZUS-MH impact analysis predicts a loss estimate value by crop for flow time intervals. The first is a loss estimate for the day of the fixed event; the remaining three are for 3, 7 and 14 days following the event. The results of these analyses are presented in each CPE. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 95 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Critical Facilities To estimate the potential impact of floods on critical facilities a GIS overlay was performed of the flood hazard layer on existing critical facilities point locations. The results are shown in each CPE in map and tabular fort[[. A summary of facilities potentially located in floodplains is provided in Table 4.6. Note that the majority of the facilities are bridges, but the analysis does not determine if these bridges will be overtopped by flooding. Potentially Flood Prone Critical Facilities within the Region Facility Type No.of Facilities Bridges 388 Dams 16 Fire Stations 10 HAZMAT 7 Health Care 7 Natural Gas Facility 14 Police 3 Power Plants 1 Schools 16 • Scour Critical Bridges 29 Waste Water Facility 6 Total Facilities 497 Future Development Due to population shifts and trends in the 10 county planning area, future development is discussed in more detail in each specific County Planning Element. The risk of flooding to future development in the Region would be minimized by the continued enforcement of the floodplain management programs in place. Additional risk reduction measures to new development could be further enhanced by encouraging additional participation with the NFIP, and promoting flood insurance, which have been a topic of support during this mitigation planning process and is reflected in the actions identified later in the plan and respective CPEs. Weld County, where development pressures are highest, may have development occurring in areas that are not mapped by the NFIP, thus making floodplain regulation enforcement difficult. Additional and updated FIRM mapping is another recommendation of this planning process. Hailstorms Existing Development Planning Significance: High. Hail occurrences resulting in significant losses are reported within • the "History of Hazard Losses" in the HIRA data collected for each county. Hail is associated Northeast Colorado FINAL 96 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • with thunderstorms, and thunderstorms are a common occurrence throughout the planning area between early spring and late fall. In addition, hailstones are frequently thrown out miles in front of the storm producing them. Due to the frequency and widespread distribution of hail- producing thunderstorms, the Planning Team considers the risk of hail and severe summer storms to be the same across the entire planning area. The risk does not vary from county to county. Hail, in northeastern Colorado, primarily causes crop damage. However, hailstorms in populated areas can cause significant damage to roofs, automobiles, trees and windows. Future losses to crops and property from hailstorms in the region will be in the millions. Available crop insurance data is not broken out by specific hazards such as hail, but over $644 million has been paid to the region's agricultural landowners in insurance claims between 1980 and 2007. It is reasonable to assume that a significant amount of this is due to hail-related losses. While the crop insurance loss data covers a variety of perils, it is indicative of the types of agricultural impacts that hail can have upon the planning area. Assuming at least 50% of the losses are hail- related, an average annual loss estimate can be calculated. For the region this is calculated by ($644,000,000/2)/27years, which equates to $11.9 million in average annual agricultural losses for the region. The fact that most of these losses are covered by insurance is why disaster declarations don't result from most hailstorms. Future Development • Future development is discussed in more detail in each specific County Planning Element. New critical facilities such as communications towers and tornado sirens should be built to withstand hail damage. With limited development occurring in the region outside of Weld County future hail losses to new development should be minimal. Lightning Existing Development Planning Significance: Medium. It is difficult to quantify where specific losses will occur due to the random nature of this hazard. Given the lightning statistics for Colorado and the Region, the entire region remains at risk and is vulnerable to the effects of lightning. Persons recreating or working outdoors during the months of April through September will be most at risk to lightning strikes. It is difficult to quantify future deaths and injuries due to lightning. Critical facilities and infrastructure will have the greatest consequences if damaged by a lightning strike. The greatest losses from lightning could result from secondary hazards, such as wildfire. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 97 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Future Development Future development is discussed in more detail in each specific County Planning Element. New critical facilities such as communications towers should be built with lightning protection measures. Lightning detectors have been installed near public swimming pools and baseball fields in Kit Carson County as a mitigation measure, and would be recommended tool for new or existing parks and golf courses. Straight Line Winds Existing Development Planning Significance: High. Beyond tornadoes, the Planning Area is subject to potentially destructive straight-line winds. High winds are common throughout the planning area, throughout the entire year. Straight line winds are primarily a public safety and economic concern. Windstorm can cause damage to structures and power lines which in turn can create hazardous conditions for people. Debris flying from high wind events can shatter windows in structures and vehicles and can harm people that are not adequately sheltered. Future losses from straight line winds include: • Erosion (soil loss) • • Dry land farming seed loss, • Wind blown weeds, such as tumbleweed • Power line impacts and economic losses from power outages • Occasional building damage, primarily to roofs While there has been some scattered record keeping describing the impacts of dust storms, and the removal of concentrated piles of tumbleweeds, there is little information to indicate that straight-line winds are little more than a nuisance. For example,while tumbleweeds can create an additional expense for their removal, they often cause little damage and there is little justification for allocating resources to combat them. In some areas, it should be noted though, that mitigation measures, such as "Living Snow Fences" (and traditional snow fences) have been established to protect roadways and/or farmsteads from wind-blown snow. Conversely, the frequent windmills that dot the landscape use the prevailing winds to capture the power of the wind to pump groundwater for livestock. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 98 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • INN S(.'t1'i 'if a 1'let 1111.1 • THE "HAD MILE" LIVINGSNOINFENCE PROJECT Cando Ouprttntent of Hkjn ays Coiorwfo Sin%forest Sonic* USDA Soil Conoatratton Ssivka Kkwa Sal Cunwn lttat lhtlict Kowa Boy Scout troop 821 Kkma!bung HanotnnM,s Extension Cat) K1owa*Widow Fire Dep:rtmaN Co4a.do State Soil Coneevv$on Dowd Nod Ranch t anabwnen Ffernor d Olsen, Tony Kateay, Dale!bung Campers, mobile homes, barns, and sheds and their occupants are particularly vulnerable as windstorm events in the Region can be sufficient in magnitude to overturn these lighter structures. Overhead power lines are vulnerable and account for the majority of historical damages. Interstate corridors can be vulnerable to high winds and dust storms, where high profile vehicles may be overturned by winds and lowered visibility can lead to multi-car accidents. Future Development Future development is discussed in more detail in each specific County Planning Element. Future development projects should consider windstorm hazards at the planning, engineering and • architectural design stage with the goal of reducing vulnerability. Limited development trends in the region, outside of Weld County, are not expected to increase vulnerability to the hazard. Tornadoes Existing Development Planning Significance: High. Tornadoes are the most violent hazard affecting the planning area. Tornadoes can have an atmospheric pressure differential of 2 inches from the outer edge of the funnel to its center, creating winds in excess of 300 mph across an area as small as 300 yards. For the sake of comparison, a hurricane can have the same pressure differential across an area of 300 miles! When the randomness of tornado location and the vast open space within the planning area are considered, the Planning Team does not consider any one area at a greater risk to tornadoes than any other. Thus, the risk of tornadoes is the same across the entire planning area. The risk does not vary from county to county. This is because tornadoes are just as likely to hit one location as another within the planning area. The exposure to tornados does vary from County to County, as indicated by the building and population differences in each County. The area that tornadoes strike is random, depending upon the location of the weather system spawning them. The impact of tornadoes is also random across the planning area because of the tremendous amounts of open • Northeast Colorado FINAL 99 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • space between communities and farms and ranches. The planning area frequently experiences tornadoes that strike little or nothing. On the other hand, tornadoes need to be given serious consideration in this assessment, because if and when they do strike populated areas, the impact can be devastating. Tornadoes can impact communities by destroying buildings and infrastructure within seconds. They can annihilate power distribution systems, commercial businesses, residential neighborhoods, automobiles and crops. They can create tremendous debris removal problems, overwhelm building departments, and psychologically scar residents. During the past years of record keeping within the Planning Area there have been two catastrophic incidents: the 1990 Limon Tornado that caused an estimated $25 million dollars of damage and the 2008 Windsor Tornado that caused over $ 147 million in damages. Over $ 177 million in damages has occurred in the region since 1952, based on the damages caused by tornadoes F3 or greater in magnitude (see Tornado hazard profile) . This equates to an average annualized loss of about $3 million for the region. Due to the randomness of tornado events it is difficult to predict where these future losses will specifically occur within the region. Little can be done to reduce the damages caused by tornadoes - though recently, significant strides have been made to improve life safety during these events - most notably through improved warning systems and the installation of "safe-rooms." • Figure 4.18. Safe Room Projects in Fort Morgan, Colorado I • Alfa . •N 4 7 .. t i t 1 i .. , ,„ 411P ..... IN 4 d • F I , I rf tie. .. .. i it JLs , . J., _ 0 1 i M • i ... s A 1 , , , , , , I 1—:: . L . A , RA . , .., sA ,, ,- rt . ,. 0) _ . : - • , , •tia • ,, • i . , The 'ale Room Team' of Ft_ Morgan MiddlO Students build safe rooms and team School spirit in Ft. Morgan, CO • Northeast Colorado FINAL 100 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Future Development As building and population trends continue to increase in Weld County more persons and buildings will be exposed to the tornado hazard, but limited development trends elsewhere in the region will not increase exposure or vulnerability to tornadoes. Wildland/Grassland Fires Existing Development Planning Significance: High. Based on wildfire captured in this hazard's profile, wildfires in the region have the potential to be both a public safety issue and contribute to property losses. According to the MCPC, the areas that are most vulnerable to wildfire are agricultural areas where CRP land is burned, rural areas where trash and debris are burned, and the wildland-urban interface areas. Homes built in rural areas are more vulnerable since they are in closer proximity to CRP land that is burned and homeowners are more likely to burn trash and debris in rural locations. The vulnerability of structures in rural areas is exacerbated due to the lack of hydrants in these areas for firefighting and the distance required for firefighting vehicles and personnel to travel to respond. In addition, structures along the wildland urban interface where wild fuel loads are in close proximity to structures are at increased risk. The Hazard Identification reported that the NCDC recorded zero fire events throughout the 11- • county planning area between 1951 and 2003. However, the Planning Team took note that the Planning Area was included in the 2002 Presidential Disaster Declaration for wildfires (FEMA DR-1421). In addition, they recognized that fires do occur frequently throughout the planning area, even though they cause little damage and do not qualify for disaster assistance. Wildland/grassland fires seem to increase with drought and with the increase of no-till farming - simply because there is less moisture available - in the air, in the ground, and in the plants. This can be attributed to both drought and the absence of irrigation. There also is an apparent increase in fires in areas where the CRP has prohibited grazing on lands enrolled in the program. In this instance, there is little else to stunt the growth of weeds, which in turn, provide fuel for fires. The county-by-county assessments in each CPE include fire losses, and makes available fire fighting costs where that information was available. In many cases data on wildfires is not consistently recorded, or specific impacts information is limited. The map below shows the results of a GIS based Wildland Urban Interface Wildfire Hazard Assessment performed by the Colorado State Forest Service in 2002. The assessment used three main layers to determine fire danger, risk of fire occurrence, hazard, and values. The following lists the data used to create the three layers. 1. Risk— Probability of Ignition a. Lightning strike density • b. Road buffer- 100 meter buffer of roads and railroads Northeast Colorado FINAL 101 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • 2. Hazard-vegetative and topological features affecting intensity and rate of spread a. Slope b. Aspect c. Fuels -interpreted from CO Division of Wildlife GAP vegetation information 3. Values - Natural or man-made components of the ecosystem on which a value can be placed. a. Housing Density- Life and Property 4. Non -flammable areas Mask - a mask was created to aid in the analysis for areas that are not flammable, such as rock and water areas. Urban areas were included in these non- flammable areas if there was not a significant source of vegetation to carry the fire. These areas show a zero value for fire hazard in the final assessment. The Colorado Wildland Urban Interface Hazard Assessment is meant to be used as a tool to compare fire hazard in various areas in Colorado and within counties. The data is not meant to be used to determine fire hazard at the subdivision or parcel level scale. During the 2009 update this assessment was used to create more detailed wildfire hazard maps for the Region and each County. A regional map is shown in the following figure. County maps are provided in each CPE. The CSFS indicated that the methodology and mapping needs updated, but it currently is the best available wildfire hazard data available for the eastern plains of Colorado. The data does not lend itself to calculating loss estimates, but interpretation of the • maps does allow a qualitative assessment of fire risk as it varies across the planning area. A discussion of the risk to incorporated communities and critical facilities as it varies within each County accompanies the maps in each CPE. On a regional level the data indicates that Logan, Yuma, and Kit Carson Counties have a higher wildfire risk, in part driven by the increased concentrations of lightning strikes that are displayed as the large polygons in the maps. Future Development Limited development trends in the region will not increase exposure or vulnerability to wildfires. The planting of "living" wind breaks around existing or new homes and buildings should be set back far enough to limit wildfire vulnerability. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 102 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 SFigure 4.19. Colorado Wildland Urban Interface Hazard Assessment WYOMING NEBRASKA---- . i , ___ _ i .,._. --- c (`" A_ ..4 - --\---(>1,• ( I ''i .� _ i ,c. ` ': I SERGWtcK ' „}., ` 1 , ` f , I .' LOGAN �- i LPHILUI#S `_ e i• p y. I ( ) . -_v. . / ! 'j' : _^__ 1 ��' i� .? WELD ' �--./ '1 .\�.#�G�. _ f ' - .� • -1( _ 1 _,i.r - �, , , .,,. t r . I • ., ,� ,�. k } ' it i w11� +, _� �� -a _ � ~• - , 1 • r MOtd3ANSal — ,.. , 1 I's i .1 ..) 1 s-\ * I 1/4.2.--i 1 1 is si el INGTON (>43---orrt CD I CO 111, _C" •� t ./ S. 74.,/'' / Jr' I1 , ) J ! ,, 1 �~ , . i r 7 4. .... • , -_-1 _.... . , / , : . ,, L . t. ) e _ 1 / LEGEND II�.. 1 �,,� ,- �= �f( iff �/ 1 (i. r t r.- f F e Hazard Risk Values F tf ), r0 1-' . / yam, r i rr MI 2 Low , " --s l ; e f�, r� ' l r - '+ r /r ,ie L® 4 ' 4.. ( t - ,/' �.1 r{ + �� 1T ftS a �ri!'fit'CI 7 Moderate N. J�N. • r-`` 8 `fit►ice-' -►- _:- s, - .,N+, I - it- - Ja , • e.tCOLN _ IMI 12 13 f ,. •� L} • ,. I 1 „„r,,r - 14 High - ' - •.1q �, `�, "" `, �'- �'t Cl Norte EL PA 3O i -,^% — Streams - in Lakes — Highway -• — Interstate I .. KK�VIfA +44 Ra(roads O Cites < CI Northeast Count'es Boundary aUE6 .C CRv'►4'L� r _ ,t_4 1 - O Counties - --• --- a ♦ � 4 1 O States 1 . . !.' t l �` BEN- rRal�A'GRS ., QrJ - 1 1 ! 1 1 'arnee"Map ea-Tiled 4'2DC : vended fcr plarmng purposes oriy. A Data Source: Sze of Corrado: COOT, COD CSFS Colorado Wtdfre Rsk Assessment 51182002 • Northeast Colorado FINAL 103 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • Low Significance Hazard Vulnerability Discussions Earthquake Planning Significance: Low. As discussed under the profile for this hazard in Section 4.2, there is only a 10 percent probability of an earthquake exceeding a peak acceleration of 3 percent gravity in the next 50 years in the planning area, according to the USGS. Typically, significant earthquake damage occurs when accelerations are greater than 30 percent of gravity. With this in mind, the HMPC has determined that the planning area is not vulnerable to significant earthquake damage. The potential loss estimates developed by the Colorado Geological Survey presented in Section 4.2 indicate that the potential for damaging earthquakes does exist for Weld, Lincoln, and Kit Carson Counties, but the probability of these earthquakes is low. Fog Planning Significance: Low. Fog does not cause losses to buildings or infrastructure but poses the greatest danger to people traveling, particularly on the highways of the Region. The Region's extensive highway transportation system includes three interstate highways, major federal and state highways, and County and local roads. While people are not directly vulnerable to fog, the hazard greatly increases the danger of driving on the roads. The population is indirectly vulnerable, then, to the accidents and dangerous traveling conditions caused by the • fog. Vehicles are the most vulnerable aspect of general property, as most accidents during fog are vehicle-to-vehicle. During the planning meetings in 2009 it was noted that that fog is a problem east of Genoa (Lincoln County) near Cedar Point, where it was attributed to one traffic fatality. In other meetings, direct solicitation for discussion about fog results in general commentary about fog as a hazard, but no specific data. Fog mitigation techniques can include low tech solutions such as maintaining or improving road striping in susceptible areas (usually along river bottoms), to high tech solutions that utilize variable speed limit signs that change with varying weather conditions. Landslide As discussed within the Hazard Identification section, the Planning Team examined the CO- OEM map below, and shared the map with Planning Team participants from the oil and gas industry. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 104 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 Figure 4.20. Landslides and Pipelines III IICHD as ee • % �OII Pipelines /yMc:t ral Gae Pipelines µ�.i County Names County boundaries _ •'a MI Flre perimeters 1002 • ti Municipal boundaries 1997 '� ' I1 l f • j 1 US tandsfde potential • P '1 combo-hi lirhigh • . �l Af • • I"j .:II high sus-high mod • : - �I; r sus-mod . low • 0 no-data • ) •et J / • W . E 70 0 70 140 Miles S • Source: CO—OEM The map depicts areas of suspected high and moderate landslide risk within the planning area, but no areas where an actual, documented risk is known. The suspected areas of high and moderate landslide risk generally skirt the depicted oil and gas pipelines identified. The Planning Team could not document there ever having been a landslide within the planning area. The pipeline industry representatives also could not document any historic landslide. Pipeline representatives explained that the pipelines portrayed on this map are incomplete. There are additional pipelines throughout the planning area, but in keeping with Homeland Security priorities, the Planning Team decided not to update this map for this plan. Finally, it is noteworthy that the pipeline industry has an extensive monitoring capability of their resources, and would be able to detect any pipeline breach in a timely manner, regardless of the cause of the breach. The planning Team has therefore determined that the landslide risk within the Planning Area is minimal, and has therefore eliminated this hazard from further consideration within this plan. Land Subsidence Planning Significance: Low. This hazard is only a concern in Weld County and does not occur elsewhere in the region. A 1986 study on land subsidence in southeastern Boulder County and Northeast Colorado FINAL 105 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • southwestern Weld County conducted by the State of Colorado Department of Natural Resources Mined Land Reclamation Division found that the major period of subsidence occurred within 30 to 40 years after the mining was completed. Since that time (around 1950), subsidence events have occurred on an erratic basis. It is not possible to predict the exact location where future subsidence may occur or the magnitude of subsidence events in terms of size or disturbance. Losses from future subsidence events are predicted to be sporadic and relatively minor. Impacts to critical facilities are anticipated to be minor, but there could be impacts along the I-25 corridor in southwest Weld County. Noxious Weeds Planning Significance: Low. Noxious weeds include Bindweed, Canada Thistle, Tamarisk & Tumbleweeds. As stated, noxious weeds are a nuisance in northeastern Colorado, and they can aggravate other hazard threats. As cited in the Hazard Identification section of this plan, Tamarisk (Salt Cedar) has an impact on drought by limiting water supply and on floods by blocking conveyance channels. Tumbleweeds not only catch on fire, and easily spread fire, but they can clog drainageways increasing drainage and flood problems, and they can be a debris problem by their sheer number and volume. In addition, other noxious weeds, such as Canadian Thistle and Bindweed create problems as well. There is little economic data available, however, on the financial impact these weeds have upon • the local governments and area farmers and ranchers. From a hazard perspective, the CRP comes under discussion again. The CRP mandates that the registered land be put in pasture — and when the weeds grow on that, it aggravates the fire danger. There is strong local sentiment that the CRP should allow grazing upon those registered lands, lessening the drought impact on feed costs, lessening the volume of noxious weeds, and lessening the increased fire threat. The county budgets reflect the impact of noxious weeds in that each county has a Weed Control Officer — mandated by the state. As an example, the Lincoln County budget is $83,435, with $54,510 of that being for chemicals. Temperature Extremes Planning Significance: Low. Limited data on temperature extreme impacts per County was available during the development of this hazard's profile (added in 2009). Extreme heat normally does not impact structures as there may be a limited number of days where the temperatures stay high which gives the structure periodic relief between hot and cool temperature cycles. Areas prone to excessively high temperatures are identified normally on a nation-wide assessment scale, which doesn't allow detailed results on specific structures. Secondary impacts of extreme heat can affect the supporting mechanisms or systems of a community's infrastructure. For example, when high amounts of utilization is imposed on the power system it can cause an interruption in the transmission of that power shutting down air conditioning capabilities or refrigeration that can lead to spoiled foods, etc. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 106 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • The elderly population in the planning area is most vulnerable to temperature extremes. Table 2.2 in Chapter 2 shows that the percentage of elderly people (age 65 or over) in the planning area is well above the national average, which is 6%. Most counties have population percentages in the 14-16% range. Sedgwick County is as high as 22%, with Weld County the lowest at 9%. However many residents of northeast Colorado are self sufficient and accustomed to rural living and the climate extremes that are part of the territory. The residents of nursing homes and elder care facilities are especially vulnerable to extreme temperature events. It is encouraged that such facilities have emergency plans or backup power to address power failure during times of extreme heat or cold. Multi-Hazard Considerations One interesting product of the Hazard Identification and Vulnerability Assessments undertaken as part of this planning process is the plethora of multi-hazard considerations that have come to light. It is very clear that exposure to natural hazards is a complex relationship between weather, the physical environment, and human activity. Below is a list of multi-hazard considerations that the planning Team has identified: • Wildland/grassland fires are related to drought, as drought increases the availability of fuels. • Retention ponds may serve well to prevent damages resulting from drainage and flooding, • but they also serve as a breeding ground for mosquitoes that can transmit West Nile Virus. • Drought could ease the threat of West Nile Virus by drying up areas of standing water that serve as mosquito breeding grounds. • Interest in a seldom-used State program to bury old, used tires has increased now that people want to be rid of old tires because mosquitoes can breed in the standing water they collect. • The Tamarisk (Salt Cedar) plant can clog the waterways where it grows, contributing to flood damages, while at the same time demands significant water resources, contributing to the drought. • The CRP program contributes to the additional growth of noxious weeds, which in turn, contributes to an increased risk of fire. • Tumbleweeds contribute to fire by being a fuel source, and collecting along rail tracks where brake sparks can ignite them. They also can clog drainageways, aggravating flooding conditions. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 107 of 107 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update September 2009 • CHAPTER 5 MITIGATION STRATEGY Requirement§201.6(c)(3): [The plan shall include] a mitigation strategy that provides the jurisdiction's blueprint for reducing the potential losses identified in the risk assessment, based on existing authorities, policies, programs and resources, and its ability to expand on and improve these existing tools. This section describes the mitigation strategy process and mitigation action plan for the Northeast Colorado Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. This section describes how the Region accomplished Phase 3 of FEMA's 4-phase guidance—Develop the Mitigation Plan—and includes the following from the 10-step planning process: • Planning Step 6: Set Goals • Planning Step 7: Review Possible Activities • Planning Step 8: Draft an Action Plan 5.1 Plan Goals Requirement§201.6(c)(3)(i): [The hazard mitigation strategy shall include a] description of mitigation goals to reduce or avoid long-term vulnerabilities to the identified hazards. • The Hazard Mitigation Planning process followed up to this point by the MCPC used the following problem-solving methodology: • Describe the problem (Hazard Identification); • Estimate the impacts the problem could cause (Vulnerability Assessment); • Assess what safeguards already exist that could/should reduce those impacts (Capability Assessment); and • Using this information, determine whether an action should be taken (Determine Acceptable Risk), and if so, what that action should be (Develop an Action Plan). The development of plan goals and objectives for this plan took place following the collection and analysis of the previous information when this plan was initially developed in 2004. Goals and objectives help describe what needs to take place, using increasingly more narrow descriptors. Goals are broad-based, long-term and general statements. Goals are accomplished by meeting objectives, which are activities that are more specific and achievable. In most cases there is a third level, called Recommended Actions, which are very detailed and specific ways of meeting the objectives that have time frames and implementation strategies. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.1 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • GOAL Improve Communities' Capabilities to Address Hazard Risks and Vulnerabilities Provide Detailed Enforce Existing Promote Disaster Hl Data to Communitie Ordinances 1Resilient Education Identify Hazards Floodplain Management Adopt School Education Programs Analyze Risks Building Codes Host Construction Technique Workshops Create Maps Subdivision Ordinances Conduct "Hazard Awareness" Week Coordinate with CO-OEM When developing the initial goals and objectives for this plan, the MCPC was provided with the model above as an example of this relationship. The MCPC discussed goals and objectives for this plan at two points in the 2004 planning process. First, early in the planning process, the MCPC established general goals and objectives to set the initial tone and direction for the overall plan. Then, after the risk assessment was developed, the goals and objectives were revisited as a validation and refinement process to determine if the MCPC data collection supported them. The results of this collaborative process are provided in the goals and objectives list. • These goals and objectives were developed for the entire planning area. Not every county has recommended actions for every goal and objective. Some counties developed additional or modified goals and objectives. Not every goal and objective is supported by a specific Recommended Action, though they retain their worthiness in providing long-range direction and focus that can be valuable in the implementation and maintenance of this plan. During the 2009 update to this plan, these goals and objectives were revisited by the MCPC and validated. This was done through a group process at a MCPC meeting. The 2004 goals and objectives were printed in a table format on a large poster, with columns next to each goal and objective with headers to "Accept," "Revise," or "Delete." In addition, the goals from the State of Colorado Hazard Mitigation Plan were displayed on another poster, with a column titled "Adapt to Northeast Colorado?" These props allowed MCPC members to cast `votes' per each goal and objective regarding whether they needed modification or not, and if they needed more alignment with the State goals. As a result of this process the group decided that Goals 1 , 2, and 4 should be kept as is. Goal 3 was changed from "Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Weather Hazards" to make it more broad (see revised Goal 3 in following list) . Objectives 3.5- 3.6 were added to address other hazards not specifically mentioned before, including wildfires and winter storms. The group felt that by adding the word `economic' into Goal 3 would helped align the plan with the State Plan goal to "minimize economic losses." Objective 2.4 was added to align with the State Plan goal of "Reduce damage to state critical, essential and necessary assets." The results of this process are summarized in a worksheet captured in Appendix C Plan • Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.2 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Participants and Planning Process Documentation. The updated goals and objectives follow, with new or modified goals or objectives indicated with an asterisk (*). 5.1.1 Goals and Objectives 1. MAINTAIN FEMA ELIGIBILITY/POSITION COMMUNITIES FOR FEDERAL MITIGATION FUNDING 1.1. Develop and Adopt this DMA Plan 1.1.1. Attend the County Subcommittee Meetings 1.1.2. Provide Data Regarding Hazards, Losses, and Existing Capabilities 1.1.3. Review and Comment Upon the Drafts 1.1.4. Stimulate and Participate in the Public Input Process 1.1.5. Advise and Schedule Plan Adoption with Appropriate Authority 2. IMPROVE COUNTY CAPABILITY TO REDUCE DISASTER LOSSES 2.1. Have Each County Certified as "Storm Ready" by NWS 2.1.1. Coordinate with National Weather Service (NWS) 2.1.2. Seek NOAA Weather Radio Repeaters 2.1.3. Identify Other Program Requirement Needs • 2.1.3.1. Communications Equipment 2.2. Improve Local Flood Protection Programs (where appropriate) 2.2.1. Promote National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Participation 2.2.2. Promote Public Awareness of Flood Hazard Areas & Potential Losses 2.2.3. Promote Flood Insurance 2.2.4. Seek Improved Floodplain Mapping 2.3. Coordinate Planning Requirements and Community Plans 2.3.1. Disaster Plans 2.3.1.1. Local Emergency Operations Plans 2.3.1.2. Homeland Security Plans 2.3.1.2.1. Bioterrorism/Health Department Plans 2.3.1.2.2. WMD/Terrorism Plans 2.3.2. Hazardous Materials and LEPC Plans 2.3.2.1. Materials Transported through the County 2.3.2.2. Materials Stored in the County 2.3.2.3. Materials Manufactured in the County 2.3.3. Regional Transportation Plans 2.3.3.1. CDOT 2.3.4. County Comprehensive Plans • Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.3 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • 2.4. Reduce Damage to and Maintain Functionality of Critical Facilities and Infrastructure.* 3. REDUCE LOSS OF LIFE,PROPERTY DAMAGES,AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM HAZARDS* 3.1. Reduce Losses from Drought 3.1.1. Improve Water Supply 3.1.2. Seek Grazing on CRP Land 3.1.3. Use Low-Water Crops 3.2. Reduce Losses from Flood 3.2.1. Promote Flood Insurance 3.2.2. Sponsor Cost-Effective Site-Specific Projects 3.3. Reduce Losses from Tornadoes/Wind storms 3.3.1. Improve Warning 3.3.2. Promote "Safe-Rooms" and Other Shelters 3.3.3. Promote Erosion Mitigation Techniques 3.4. Reduce Agricultural Losses Hazards • 3.4.1. Promote Crop Insurance 3.5. Reduce Losses from Wildfires* 3.6. Reduce Losses from Winter Storms* 3.7. Reduce Losses from Other Hazards Identified in This Plan, Where Practical and Feasible* 4. INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS OF POTENTIAL HAZARD LOSSES 4.1. Sponsor an Annual Public Education Project 4.1.1. Have an "Awareness" Week 4.1.1.1. Show Hazard Maps, List Past Losses, Explain Insurance Availability/Cost 4.1.1.2. Use Billing "Stuffers," County Fair, Websites, Newsletters, Radio, Newspapers, 4-H Clubs 4.1.2. Target Specific Areas (floodplains) • Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.4 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • 5.2 Identification and Analysis of Mitigation Actions Requirement§201.6(c)(3)(ii): [The mitigation strategy shall include a] section that identifies and analyzes a comprehensive range of specific mitigation actions and projects being considered to reduce the effects of each hazard,with particular emphasis on new and existing buildings and infrastructure. In order to identify and select mitigation measures to support the mitigation goals, each hazard identified in Section 4.1 Identifying Hazards was evaluated. Only those hazards that pose a significant threat to the community were considered further in the development of hazard specific mitigation measures. The hazard and capabilities data collection supports the goals, objectives and recommended actions in these ways: • The Hazard IdentificationNulnerability Assessment data identifies: o Areas exposed to hazards; o At-risk critical facilities; and o Future development at risk. • As examples, this plan puts forth Recommended Actions concerned with the NFIP: • For communities that are experiencing growth but are not in the NFIP; • • For communities that are mapped but do not participate in the NFIP; and • For communities with significant uninsured building inventories within the 100-year floodplain. • The Capability Assessment data identifies; o Areas for Emergency Management improvements • As examples, this plan puts forth Recommended Actions concerned with County `Storm Ready' certification by the National Weather Service. At first glance, the recommendation seems response, not mitigation, oriented. However, the Storm Ready program requires not just redundant warning capabilities, but public education, training, and ongoing reviews as well. Additionally, it provides a focus on a complementary, but non-FEMA, mitigation program. • The History of Recorded Natural Hazard Losses data identifies; o Protective measures that could prevent past damages from becoming repetitive. • As an example, this plan puts forth Recommended Actions concerned with flood protective measures recommended following studies of the 1997 flood. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.5 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Once it was determined which hazards warranted the development of specific mitigation measures, each CPS analyzed a set of viable mitigation alternatives for each hazard that would support identified goals and objectives. This process took place in 2004 and during the update in 2009 so that new action items could be identified for each county, where appropriate. At the CPS Action Meetings each CPS member was provided with the following list of categories of mitigation measures, which originate from the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System: • Prevention • Property Protection • Structural Projects • Natural Resource Protection • Emergency Services • Public Information The CPS members were also provided with several lists of alternative multi-hazard mitigation actions for each of the above categories, and a reference document developed by FEMA titled "Mitigation Ideas" that lists mitigation alternatives by hazard type. A facilitated discussion then took place to examine and analyze the alternatives. With an understanding of the alternatives, a brainstorming session was conducted to generate a list of preferred mitigation actions. HMPC members wrote project ideas on large sticky notes. These were posted on flip charts. The result • was a number of new project ideas with the intent of meeting the identified goals. A note about Continued Compliance with the National Flood Insurance Program The counties in the Region recognize the importance of the availability of flood insurance to citizens. Each NFIP participating county and municipality has and will continue to make every effort to remain in good standing with NFIP. This includes continuing to comply with the NFIP's standards for updating and adopting floodplain maps and maintaining the floodplain zoning ordinance. There are several action items identified in this plan in the County Planning Elements that address specifics related to NFIP continued compliance. 5.3 Mitigation Action Plan Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(iii): [The mitigation strategy section shall include] an action plan describing how the actions identified in section (c)(3)(ii)will be prioritized, implemented, and administered by the local jurisdiction. Prioritization shall include a special emphasis on the extent to which benefits are maximized according to a cost benefit review of the proposed projects and their associated costs. This section outlines the development of the final mitigation action plan. The action plan consists of the specific projects, or actions, designed to meet the plan's goals. Over time the • Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.6 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • implementation of these projects will be tracked as a measure of demonstrated progress on meeting the plan's goals. 5.3.1 Prioritization Process Once the mitigation actions were identified, the HMPC members were provided with several sets of decision-making tools, including FEMA's recommended criteria, STAPLE/E (which considers social, technical, administrative, political, legal, economic, and environmental constraints and benefits). • Social: Does the measure treat people fairly? • Technical: Will it work? (Does it solve the problem? Is it feasible?) • Administrative: Is there capacity to implement and manage the project? • Political: Who are the stakeholders? Did they get to participate? Is there public support? Is political leadership willing to support the project? • Legal: Does your organization have the authority to implement? Is it legal? Are there liability implications? • Economic: Is it cost-beneficial? Is there funding? Does it contribute to the local economy or economic development? Does it reduce direct property losses or indirect economic losses? • Environmental: Does it comply with environmental regulations or have adverse environmental impacts? • In accordance with the DMA requirements, an emphasis was placed on the importance of a benefit-cost analysis in determining project priority (the `economic' factor of STAPLE/E). In accordance with the DMA requirements, the HMPC was asked to place an emphasis on the importance of a benefit-cost analysis in determining project priority (the 'economic' factor of STAPLEE). The action identification and prioritization process is the first step in laying-out, in broad terms, what needs to be done to minimize the occurrence and impact of natural hazards in the County. Costs identified with each action in many cases are preliminary, or generalized, to give an indication if the action can be accomplished with in-house resources, such as staff time, or will need outside funding sources and partners to implement. In some cases the detailed engineering studies, implementation costs, and benefit-cost analysis of specific projects will come at future points in the process. Additional discussion on this topic is included with each action item identified in the County Planning Elements. Other criteria used to recommend what actions might be more important, more effective, or more likely to be implemented than another included: • Does the action protect lives? • Does the action address hazards or areas with the highest risk? • Does the action protect critical facilities, infrastructure or community assets? • • Does the action meet multiple objectives (Multiple Objective Management)? Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.7 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • With these criteria in mind, team members were given a set of ten green sticky-dots. The team was asked to use the dots to prioritize projects with the above criteria in mind, essentially voting on the projects. The projects with the most dots became the higher priority projects. This process provided both consensus and priority for the recommendations. A sponsor for each new project was assigned and provided a Mitigation Action Worksheet to fill out with details on the action description, responsible office, cost, benefits, schedule, and priority. Each county used the results of the data collection efforts to develop goals and prioritize their actions. The priorities differ from county to county. Overall, for the entire planning area, achieving NWS "Storm Ready" certification continues to be a top priority because it is something everyone in the region can achieve, inexpensive to implement, effective, "visible," and it is good public/political relations. From county to county, additional priorities were developed based on past damages, existing exposure to risk, other community goals, and weaknesses identified by the individual county capability assessments. The results of the project identification and prioritization are captured in the respective County Planning Element including more detail about the action, including a description of the activity, the entity responsible for implementation, any other alternatives considered, a cost estimate, and a schedule for implementation. During the 2009 update a greater emphasis was placed on wildfire hazard mitigation, driven in • part by new legislation requiring county level Community Wildfire Protection Plans. Effort was made during this planning process to align the plan to help meet some of the requirements of a CWPP, such as including mitigation projects specific to wildfire. Appendix B contains wildfire mitigation actions developed collaboratively with the counties and the Colorado State Forest Service. They are included in their own appendix instead of each CPE to reduce duplication and minimize the number of pages in this plan, since some of these actions are applicable to each county. 5.3.2 Progress on Implementation This section describes demonstrated progress on meeting the plan's goals since this plan was developed in 2004. A process to evaluate the progress on the 2004 recommendations occurred when this plan was updated in 2009. This was done to determine which actions were completed, ongoing, in need of revision, or should be deleted from the plan. Each of the 10 counties that participated in the 2004 plan was provided a worksheet with a summary table listing their existing capabilities and actions noted in the plan, with columns to capture input from the planning team regarding: • Was the objective completed? If so, what made it successful? • Is the action ongoing? Should it be changed or revised? • Is the action not completed? Is the task still relevant and should it be included in the updated • plan? If yes, how could it be improved? Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.8 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Each CPS held separate planning meetings to discuss the progress on the objectives and to fill out the progress table. The result of this process was an assessment of the current progress on the 2004 recommended actions, as a measure of plan implementation. As of August 2009 each County has made progress on many of the actions outlined in the 2004 plan. The progress on each objective is noted at the bottom of each action noted in the respective CPE. In several cases there has been partial or little progress made on the action recommendations. In general this is due to the following: • Long-range activity; • Lack of resources, including staff and funding; and • Low priority or shift in priorities. In some cases the projects identified will be implemented as funding becomes available. A sample of the progress and success stories noted by each county between 2004 and 2009 are listed below, in context with the plan goals and objectives. This illustrates how specific activities and actions are helping meet the identified goals. This assessment demonstrates that this plan is making a difference in reducing hazard losses in Northeast Colorado by making progress towards hazard mitigation goals. • 1. MAINTAIN FEMA ELIGIBILITY/POSITION COMMUNITIES FOR FEDERAL MITIGATION FUNDING 1.1. Develop and Adopt this DMA Plan — The initial plan was completed in 2004. All 10 counties and 51 communities participated and adopted the plan in 2004, making them eligible for FEMA mitigation funding. — The region successfully applied for a 2008 FEMA PDM planning grant to fund the 2009 update of this plan. 2. IMPROVE COUNTY CAPABILITY TO REDUCE DISASTER LOSSES 2.1. Have each County Certified as "Storm Ready" by NWS — Kit Carson, Logan, and Washington Counties became Storm Ready Certified - Weld, Phillips, Sedgwick, and Lincoln are working towards certification 2.2. Improve Local Flood Protection Programs (where appropriate) 2.2.1. Promote NFIP participation o Town of Kit Carson in Cheyenne Countyjoined the NFIP, allowing the residents to be eligible for flood insurance. o Ovid in Sedgwick Countyjoined in the NFIP 2009. 2.2.2. Promote Public Awareness of Flood Hazard Areas & Potential Losses o HAZUS-MH approximate flood hazard mapping and analysis was conducted • during 2009 update Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.9 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • 2.2.3. Promote Flood Insurance o The Town of Otis in Washington County has two policies in force now, instead of none. 2.2.4. Seek Improved Floodplain Mapping o DFIRMs are in progress for Weld and Logan Counties 2.3. Coordinate Planning Requirements and Community Plans 2.3.1. Disaster Plans 2.3.1.1. Local Emergency Operations Plans o Weld County Emergency Operations Plan and Crisis Action Guides developed for Hudson, Lochbuie, and Kersey. 2.3.1.2. Homeland Security Plans 2.3.1.2.1. Bioterrorism/Health Department Plans 2.3.1.2.2. WMD/Terrorism Plans 2.3.2. Hazardous Materials and LEPC Plans 2.3.2.1.1. Materials transported through County 2.3.2.1.2. Materials stored in County 2.3.2.2. Materials manufactured in County 2.3.3. Regional Transportation Plans 2.3.3.1.1. CDOT 2.3.4. County Comprehensive Plans • 2.4. Reduce damage to and maintain functionality of critical facilities and infrastructure. — The City of Brush in Morgan County has implemented critical facility protection measures, 3. REDUCE LOSS OF LIFE, PROPERTY DAMAGES,AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM HAZARDS 3.1. Reduce Losses from Drought 3.1.1. Improve Water Supply 3.1.2. Seek Grazing on CRP Land 3.1.3. Use Low-Water Crops 3.2. Reduce Losses from Flood 3.2.1. Promote Flood Insurance 3.2.2. Sponsor Cost-Effective Site-Specific Projects o The City of Evans in Weld County has implemented some of its Drainage Master Plan projects o The Cities of Brush and Fort Morgan in Morgan County have installed flood gates on at-risk businesses. These gates helped mitigate loss to Fort Morgan • Businesses during a Hood event on July 3r°, 2009. Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.10 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 . o Fort Morgan has completed street drainage improvements in the downtown area; more improvements planned for Brush. o In Morgan County improvements to the closure system have been implemented where the highway creates a gap in the Wiggins flood levee. 3.3. Reduce Losses from Tornadoes/Wind storms 3.3.1. Improve Warning o Logan County has installed 6 sirens. o Lightning detectors have been installed around public pools and baseball fields in Kit Carson County. 3.3.2. Promote "Safe-Rooms" and Other Shelters 3.3.3. Promote Erosion Mitigation Techniques 3.4. Reduce Agricultural Losses Hazards 3.4.1. Promote Crop Insurance o Lenders in the Region are requiring crop insurance as a condition of federally backed loans 3.5. Reduce Losses from Wildfires — Yuma County countywide CWPPis in development • 3.6. Reduce Losses from Winter Storms* 3.7. Reduce Losses from Other Hazards Identified in This Plan,Where Practical and Feasible 4. INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS OF POTENTIAL HAZARD LOSSES 4.1. Sponsor an Annual Public Education Project 4.1.1. Have an "Awareness" Week — Lincoln County has an annual Hazard Awareness Week held in conjunction with the County fair, and information is made available at the fair and at the libraries in the County. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 5.11 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 6 PLAN ADOPTION , IMPLEMENTATION , AND MAINTENANCE 6. 1 Formal Plan Adoption Requirement §201 .6(c)(5): [The local hazard mitigation plan shall include] documentation that the plan has been formally approved by the governing body of the jurisdiction requesting approval of the plan (e.g., City Council, county commissioner, Tribal Council). The purpose of formally adopting this plan is to secure buy-in from the participating jurisdictions, raise awareness of the plan, and formalize the plan' s implementation. The adoption of this plan completes Planning Step 9 of the 10-step planning process: Adopt the Plan. The governing board for each participating jurisdiction has adopted this local hazard mitigation plan by passing a resolution. The executed copies from the 2004 and 2009 adoption process are included in electronic Appendix D Plan Adoption. NOTE TO STATE and FEMA REVIEWERS: This plan will be re- adopted following FEMA and Colorado Division of Emergency approval of plan. Over 51 "local governments," as defined by the DMA regulations have participated in this • planning process and formally adopted this plan by resolution of their governing board, be it elected or appointed. In 2004, the adoption process itself took several months, as massive coordination was necessary in order to get the plan review and adoption on the agendas, produce and provide copies in official meeting packets, facilitate the actual adoption, collect the Adoption Resolutions, scan the resolutions, transfer the scanned documents to compact disc, and then reproduce the CDs as Appendix D. 6.2 Implementation Implementation and maintenance of the plan is critical to the overall success of hazard mitigation planning. This is Planning Step 10 of the 10-step planning process, and phase 4 of FEMA' s 4 phase process. This section outlines how this plan will be implemented and updated Upon adoption, the plan faces the truest test of its worth: implementation. Implementation implies two concepts: action and priority. These are closely related. While this plan puts forth many worthwhile and "High" priority recommendations, the decision of which action to undertake first will be the first issue that the NCEM faces. Fortunately, there are two factors that will help make that decision. First, there are high priority items for each participating county, so each county can pursue an action simultaneously, and eleven recommendations will begin to be addressed. Second, funding is always an issue. Thus, • Northeast Colorado FINAL 6.1 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • pursuing low or no-cost high-priority recommendations will have the greatest likelihood for success. An example would be pursuing the education efforts necessary for elected officials and the general public as they relate to participation in the NFIP. Some communities need to join the NFIP and others need to significantly increase the existing amount of flood insurance coverage. Another example would be pursuing the regional goal of achieving "Storm Ready Certification" by the National Weather Service, by each county identifying the particular activities they need to undertake. These initial efforts will lead to long-standing changes in vulnerability and can be initiated at very little cost, while promoting public education through their relative "visibility" in the community. As noted in Chapter 5, many of the counties in the region have had success with implementing these types of projects between 2004-2009. 6.2.1 Incorporation into Existing Planning Mechanisms Another important implementation mechanism that is highly effective but low-cost, is taking steps to incorporate the recommendations, and equally important, the underlying principles of this Hazard Mitigation Plan into other community plans and mechanisms, such as Comprehensive Planning, Capital Improvement budgeting, Economic Development goals and incentives, or regional plans such as those put forth by the State Department of Transportation. Mitigation is most successful when it is incorporated within the day-to-day functions and • priorities of government and development --- and so the best opportunity to be successful is to maintain a vigilance to do this. This integration is accomplished by a constant, pervasive and energetic effort to network and to identify and highlight the multi-objective, "win-win" benefits to each program, the community and the constituents. This effort is achieved through the mundane actions of monitoring agendas, attending meetings, sending memos, and promoting safe, sustainable communities. Some examples of how this plan was incorporated into existing planning mechanisms 2004-2009 include using this plan's Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment as the Hazard Analysis for the Weld County Emergency Operations Plan and Crisis Action Guides for the incorporated communities of Hudson, Lochbuie, and Kersey. The plan also helped the formation of a Type IV All-Hazards Incident Management Team in southeast Weld County. Examples of the integration include the implementation of recommendations of this plan through local capital improvement plans or stormwater drainage master plans. The City of Evans has successfully implemented projects this way between 2004-2009. Phillips County has an action item related to incorporation of the concept of mitigation into the County, Holyoke and Paoli Comprehensive Plans during the next update cycle of those plans. Simultaneous to these efforts, it is important to maintain a constant monitoring of funding opportunities that can be leveraged to implement some of the more costly recommended actions. This will include creating and maintaining a bank of ideas on how any required local match or • participation requirement can be met. In this way, when funding does become available, NCEM Northeast Colorado FINAL 6.2 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • and the appropriate counties and municipalities will be in a position to capitalize upon the opportunity. Funding opportunities that can be monitored include special pre- and post-disaster funds, special district budgeted funds, state or federal ear-marked funds, and grant programs, including those that can serve or support multi-objective applications. 6.2.2 Role of the Multi-County Planning Committee in Implementation and Maintenance With re-adoption of this plan, the MCPC continues with the lead on plan implementation and maintenance. The NCEM/MCPC will act as an advisory body. Its primary duty is to see the plan successfully carried out and to report to the community governing boards and the public on the status of plan implementation and mitigation opportunities. The NCEM/MCPC agrees to: • Act as a forum for hazard mitigation issues; • Disseminate hazard mitigation ideas and activities to all participants; • Pursue the implementation of high-priority, low/no-cost recommended actions; • Keep the concept of mitigation in the forefront of community decision making by identifying plan recommendations when other community goals, plans, and activities overlap, influence, or directly affect increased community vulnerability to disasters; • Maintain a vigilant monitoring of multi-objective cost-sharing opportunities to help the community implement the plan's recommended actions for which no current funding exists; • • Monitor and assist in implementation and updates to this plan; • Report on plan progress and recommended changes to the respective Boards of County Commissioners; and • Inform and solicit input from the public. Other duties include reviewing and promoting mitigation proposals, considering stakeholder concerns about hazard mitigation, passing concerns on to appropriate entities, and posting relevant information on the County website and in local newspapers. 6.3 Maintenance Plan maintenance implies an ongoing effort to monitor and evaluate the implementation of the plan, and to update the plan as progress, roadblocks, or changing circumstances are recognized. 6.3.1 Maintenance/Monitoring Schedule This monitoring and updating will take place through a semi-annual review by each CPS and an annual review each February through the standing NCEM/MCPC organization. This plan will be updated, approved, and adopted within a five-year cycle as per Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(i) of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 unless disaster or other circumstances (e.g., changing regulations) lead to a different time frame. With the reapproval of this plan anticipated in • December 2009, the plan will need to be updated, re-approved by the Colorado Division of Northeast Colorado FINAL 6.3 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Emergency Management (CDEM) and FEMA Region VIII no later than December of 2014. Each County will submit a Pre-Disaster Mitigation planning grant application to the Colorado Division of Emergency Management (CDEM)/FEMA for funds to assist with the update. This grant should be submitted in 2011, as there is a three year performance period to expend the funds, plus there is no guarantee that the grant will be awarded when initially submitted. This allows time to resubmit the grant in 2012 or 2013 if needed. Updates to this plan will follow the most current FEMA and CDEM planning guidance. When each CPS reconvenes for the review, they will coordinate with each jurisdiction that participated in the planning process - or that has joined the CPS since the inception of the planning process - to update and revise the plan. Public notice will be given and public participation will be invited, at a minimum, through available web-postings and press releases to local media outlets, primarily newspapers and AM radio stations. The evaluation of the progress can be achieved by monitoring changes in the vulnerability identified in the plan. Changes in vulnerability can be identified by noting: • Lessened vulnerability as a result of implementing Recommended Actions; • Increased vulnerability as a result of failed or ineffective mitigation actions, and/or; • Increased vulnerability as a result of new development (and/or annexation). • The updating of the plan will be by written changes and submissions, as the MCPC/NCEM deems appropriate and necessary. Updates to this plan will: • Consider changes in vulnerability due to project implementation; • Document success stories where mitigation efforts have proven effective; • Document areas where mitigation actions were not effective; • Document any new hazards that may arise or were previously overlooked; • Document hazard events and impacts that occurred within the five-year period; • Incorporate new data or studies on hazards and risks; • Incorporate new capabilities or changes in capabilities; • Incorporate documentation of continued public involvement; • Incorporate documentation to update the planning process that may include new or additional stakeholder involvement; • Incorporate growth and development-related changes to building inventories; • Incorporate new project recommendations or changes in project prioritization; • Include a public involvement process to receive public comment on the updated plan prior to submitting the updated plan to CDEM/FEMA; and • Include re-adoption by all participating entities following CDEM/FEMA approval. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 6.4 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • 6.3.2 Continued Public Involvement Continued public involvement is also imperative to the overall success of the plan's implementation. Public involvement spans the entire implementation and review process, and provides multiple opportunities for integrating the public into the entire planning process. The update process provides an opportunity to publicize success stories from the plan implementation. For example, in Logan County, the Journal-Advocate (a local newspaper) published a progress report on the construction of a storm shelter at the Logan County Central Services Building which uses Pre-disaster Mitigation Grant funding as a basis, and is an ongoing project from the previous plan.' Local media is also a useful venue to solicit additional public comment on projects and plans. Several counties, including Weld, Morgan, Logan, and Lincoln counties published public announcements in local newspapers to keep the public apprised of the update process and advertise public meetings. Public hearings and meetings to receive public comment on plan maintenance and updating were held during the update period and set the precedence for further discussion at local commissioner meetings or other public venues where mitigation discussions are appropriate. These meetings should be continued in further update efforts. When the MCPC and CPSs reconvenes for the next plan update, they will coordinate with all stakeholders participating in the planning process—including those that have joined the committee since the planning process began—to update and revise the plan. In addition, the . MCPC and CPSs will continue to solicit additional participation from the public by opening participation invitations to new agencies, entities and community groups in future planning efforts. In this process, Washington County included the local Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) in the planning and public review process, which helped integrate the community into the plan's review and maintenance process and helps ensure continued interest and involvement during action item implementation and future planning efforts. The plan maintenance and update process will include continued public and stakeholder involvement and input through attendance at designated committee meetings, web postings, and press releases to local media. Specific resources include the Northeast Colorado Emergency Managers Website (www.northeastcolorado.org), local community websites for each county and jurisdiction, school board meetings, citizen corps efforts and the integration of mitigation discussions at local weather spotting, CPR/First Aid, CERT, etc., classes, local media outlets such as TV, radio and newspapers, and continued emphasis and progress reports produced by the local emergency management offices. I Debus,Judy. "Commissioners Act Fast on Bridge Work Bid",Journal-Advocate. September 3,2009. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 6.5 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • 7 INTRODUCTION TO THE COUNTY PLANNING ELEMENTS 7.1 Introduction This plan contains separate planning elements that presents data specifically related to each county within the Planning Area. Each County Planning Element (CPE) is structured with the same format. The following is an explanation of the template and what each data set represents. The Capability Assessments and the County-specific 'History of Recorded Disaster Losses from Natural Hazards' are in the following county-by-county sections of this plan. This formatting was developed to prevent the reader from having to go back and forth between Risk Assessment data and County specifics, and to provide each county with their own, separate, 'pull-out' section of the plan for easier and more functional use. Each County Planning Element section is presented in the 'landscape' format. Each County Planning Element begins with a page of pictures meant to provide a representative sample of the County and its incorporated municipalities. Where available, USGS aerial photographs have been included, primarily to portray the relative size of the communities and the overall rural nature of the entire Planning Area. • 7.1.1 County Planning Subcommittee and General Description This section begins with a list of the entities that participated in the planning process through the County Planning Subcommittee (CPS). The list identifies the County, the incorporated municipalities, and the other "local governments" as defined in the DMA regulations, which are seeking FEMA approval by their having participated in the planning process. In most every case, the County and the local governments were represented by more than just one person, department, or agency. In many cases, knowingly ineligible entities, such as private businesses or mapped communities not enrolled in the NFIP, also participated in the planning process by attending meetings and providing data. They are also listed. 7.1.2 County Profile The general description paragraph always details the number of square miles in the county, the 2000 population of the county, 2008 U.S. Census estimate (if available) the 2000 population density of the county -- per square mile, and the rate of population growth in the county between the 1990 and 2000 census. Other pertinent census demographic information such as housing density, median income, educational attainment, disability, and spoken languages was included as well. Due to the rural and agricultural nature of the counties in the planning area, farm census data was included as well. If other interesting information was provided describing the county it was included in this section. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 7.1 Regional Hazard Mitigation Program September 2009 • 7.1.3 Hazard Identification and Summary Each County's planning team identified the hazards that affect the County and summarized their frequency of occurrence, special extent, potential magnitude, and significance specific to the County. This information is presented in Table 1 (in each respective planning element) that was added with the 2009 update. 7.1.4 County History of Recorded Natural Hazard Losses This section presents county specific hazard data, where the Hazard Identification and Vulnerability Assessment sections, presented earlier in the plan, describe the hazards and the impacts that the entire planning area faces. The subtitle of this section identifies the number of events listed in the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) database for that particular county, for the time period, 1950-2008. The number of events cited is always larger than the number of events listed on the "History of Recorded Natural Hazard Disaster Losses." This is because a "screening" filter was then applied to the database so that only "significant" events were listed. The filters employed sought only those tornado events that were F1 or greater, wind events that exceeded 74 miles per hour (Category 1 hurricane strength), hailstones equal or greater than 2" in diameter, and any event that caused more than $3,000 worth of damage. A "History of Recorded Natural Hazard Disaster • Losses" is presented in a table format, and includes the date, type of event, location, damages, other information, and data source for each listing. Blank boxes within the table indicate that the particular information was not available. A hazard summary in each County is presented below the table detailing each hazard's frequency of occurrence during the same 1950-2008 time frame. This data is a summation of the filtered NCDC described above. Hazard History This section presents a listing of other pertinent hazard data that did not appear within the "History of Disaster Losses" table, such as total number of tornadoes, wildland/grassland fire reports, number of Class 1 and Class 2 dams, incidences of West Nile Virus, historical earthquakes, and high and low temperature extremes. 7.1.5 County Vulnerability Assessment The intent of this section is to assess each county's vulnerability separate from that of the planning area as a whole, which has already been assessed in Section 4.3 Vulnerability Assessment in the main plan. This vulnerability assessment analyzes the population, property, and other assets at risk to hazards ranked of medium or high significance that may vary from other parts of the planning area. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 7.2 Regional Hazard Mitigation Program September 2009 • Assets at Risk This section identifies a county's assets at risk, including values at risk, critical facilities and infrastructure, historic assets, economic assets, and growth and development trends. Two data sources are used: assessed valuations, as available, and HAZUS-MR3 databases. Some figures were obtained from each county's Assessors office - a participant of each County Planning Subcommittee (CPS). The figures are included because many of the hazards present an equal risk across the entire county. It is unlikely, and unexpected, that a natural hazard would destroy the total value of property within a county. However, because the CPS cannot determine where a hazard will strike in the county, and which property/infrastructure or what percent of property/infrastructure will be impacted, listing the total value of the property/infrastructure at risk was deemed the most reasonable approach of detailing "what is at risk." In most cases assessed values were listed, due to the format of the available data. Floods are one of the sole hazards addressed in this plan where the CPS can determine where they will strike, what will be impacted, and a reasonable estimate of the value of the damage. This is why each NFIP participating community conducted a detailed floodplain inventory. Critical Facilities Inventory New to the plan in 2009 is the inventory of Critical facilities. In 2004 only those in floodplains were identified. Information provided from data collection tools by the CPS, combined with • available statewide GIS datasets, are provided here. Historic Sites in the County This provides a listing of the sites registered on either the federal or state Register of Historic Places. This is included because it is important for communities to have an awareness of cultural resources that could be impacted by natural hazards, and because if they are, the rules for repairing and rebuilding historic structures differ from others. Not having an inventory of historic resources available when disaster strikes can prolong a community's recovery and aggravate economic recovery. Development Trends in the County Clearly, mitigation is most effective in protecting development that doesn't yet exist. Knowing a community's development trends, when juxtaposed with the hazard analysis, is a valuable information tool that can provide direction, incentive and alternatives to placing new development at risk from natural hazards. This section describes the development trends within each county, where discernable. Floodplain Vulnerability Assessment Included in the 2009 update was a flood vulnerability assessment for each County generated with HAZUS-MH MR3, FEMA's software program for estimating potential losses from disasters. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 7.3 Regional Hazard Mitigation Program September 2009 • See the base plan vulnerability assessment for a description of the HAZUS methodology. The 100-year floodplain generated with HAZUS-MH is shown countywide in a map and at municipal scales on other maps. All maps indicate the location of critical facilities located in the County. 2004 Floodplain Inventory: In communities with NFIP maps, the CPS counted every residential, commercial, and manufactured building within the identified Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). In most cases a CPS team member, accompanied by a Certified Floodplain Manager (CFM), did this manually. In some instances, CADD or GIS maps showing lots and building footprints were utilized. In other cases, communities could provide a listing of properties within the SFHA. In Sterling/Atwood (Logan County), figures from engineering studies for proposed mitigation projects were utilized. The addresses of each building were then taken to the County Assessor's office where the individual property cards were pulled and the values of the improved structures were recorded. In a few counties, the Assessor's office was able to produce a digital listing of the properties and their values. The individual values were then totaled to arrive at a total value of property at risk. Actual values were listed. The actual values were utilized because they provide a more accurate picture of what it would cost to repair or replace the damaged properties. The actual values were calculated by "adding back in" the % deducted in calculating "assessed values." In Colorado in 2001, residential property was assessed at 9.15%. All commercial property is assessed at 29%. Only Real Property and Improvement values were used. Land values were not included in the • calculations, because land is uninsurable, and generally not damaged, in floods. Finally, using NFIP depth-damage curves from FEMA's Riverine Flood Benefit-Cost software program, an average % of damage was calculated. This was done because rarely does a flood event cause 100% damage to the property at risk. The value was then converted to an estimate of average annual damage - a figure that could be used to justify future mitigation projects - as the benefits of mitigation are calculated as future damages avoided. Floodplain Population This section presents data from the State Hazard Mitigation Plan and includes the floodplain population, number of floodprone structures, and assigned flood risk designation. The state's flood risk designation is based upon the population and number of structures in the floodplain, plus the number of dams in the vicinity. The displaced population and shelter needs estimated by HAZUS are shown in a table. Critical Facilities in the Floodplain Each CPS identified the critical facilities within the identified floodplain. This section includes information gathered in 2004 and supplemented with GIS analysis of statewide critical facilities inventories, overlayed in GIS with HAZUS flood hazard areas. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 7.4 Regional Hazard Mitigation Program September 2009 . Scour Critical Bridges Included with HAZUS-MH is a database of bridges called the National Bridge Inventory developed by the Federal Highway Administration. One of the database items is a "scour index", which is used to quantify the vulnerability of a bridge to scour during a flood. Bridges with scour index between 1 and 3 are considered "scour critical", or a bridge with a foundation element determined to be unstable for the observed or evaluated scour condition. A table is presented with the name of the bridge, road type, stream, and nearest city to the bridge. Flood Insurance Policies and Claims Information Each County Planning Element includes a summary tabulation detailing the number of NFIP policies currently in force, the number of A-Zone and non-A-Zone policies, the number of claims filed, and the settlement cost for those claims. This data provides another description of vulnerability to floods in that the number of uninsured floodprone properties can be calculated. In addition, a high number of non-A-Zone policies might indicate an area susceptible to flood damages from ponding or inadequate drainage, because property owners in such areas are not forced to purchase flood insurance; it is strictly a voluntary purchase. Property owners that are incurring flood losses, and who discover that their losses can be insured, may explain groupings of policies outside the floodplain. • Dam Failure Each County Planning Element includes a summary tabulation of high and significant hazard dams in each county. The locations of these dams are shown in a table showing the dam name, the County the dam is located in (the dam may lay outside the County, but threaten populations within the County should the dam fail), the dam's hazard class, the downstream community, and the dams distance and impacts to that community. This was added in the 2009 update. Wildfire Each County Planning Element includes a summary tabulation of wildland fire hazard in each county. A GIS overlay was used to identify certain facilities in the moderate to high fire risk areas in each County. A narrative describes each community and potentially at risk critical facilities. The critical facilities identified within a moderate to high wildfire risk area are summarized in a table showing facility types and counts. A shaded wildland urban interface fire hazard risk map is included in each planning element. The County Wildland Urban Interface map shows the location of each type of critical facility within the County. This was added in the 2009 update. Agricultural Vulnerability Assessment In every county, average annual insured crop losses exceed the losses of any other hazard. • Agricultural losses are the number one loss in each county within the planning area. The Northeast Colorado FINAL 7.5 Regional Hazard Mitigation Program September 2009 • losses are likely even higher than those indicated because many crop losses are uninsured. Also, in every county, the return on the investment of crop insurance averages 4-to-1 (claims paid versus premiums paid). Included is a loss estimation for flood impacts on crops that was generated by HAZUS-MH. Also included is a summary tabulation of crop loss data for the county between the years 1980-2007. Listed are the average annual claims paid, the total amount of coverage purchased during the 27 year period, the total premiums paid during the 27 year period, and the total claims paid during the 27 year period. The National Crop Insurance Services, through the USDA/FSA, provided the data. The losses are for multiple hazards, as the policies cover multiple perils. 7.1.6 County Capability Assessment The purpose of this section of the planning process is to determine what policies, programs, regulations, and other mechanisms each County, and the incorporated communities, already have in place that either contribute to, or hinder the ability to mitigate the effects of natural hazards. The Hazard Identification section identifies those hazards that have, or could, adversely affect the jurisdictions. The Vulnerability Assessment then estimates the impacts that those hazards could have. This section quantifies what protective measures and practices exist and lessen those impacts --- leaving a net vulnerability upon which the plan's goals and objectives are based. • Additionally, the analysis of the existing capabilities also allows the identification of those practices which may actually increase the impacts of hazards upon the communities. The true value of a Mitigation Capability Assessment is in its analysis. For this plan, each county presents a good first effort, as exemplified by the inventory they have completed. This is an ongoing process that will continue with the implementation and maintenance of this plan. This matrix was updated by participating jurisdictions in 2009, and reflects some of the changes in capabilities, such as the achievement of"Storm Ready" status by several of the counties. On the following page is the "key" to the Capability Assessment Matrix utilized and presented by each county. Explanation of Capability Assessment Matrix Does the Community have: Comp Plan: A Comprehensive Long-Term Community Growth Plan? Land Use Plan: A plan that designates type of Land Use desired/required; uses Zoning Subdivision Ordinance: A regulation that dictates lot sizes, density, setbacks and construction type Zoning Ordinance: An ordinance that dictates type of Use and Occupancy, Implements Land Use Plan • Northeast Colorado FINAL 7.6 Regional Hazard Mitigation Program September 2009 • NFIP/FPM Ord: A Floodplain Management Ordinance: Directs development in identified Flood Hazard Areas. Required for Participation in NFIP and Availability of Flood Insurance Sub. Damage: Does your FPM Ordinance contain language on Substantial Damage/Improvements? Administrator: Do you have a Floodplain Management Administrator (someone with the responsibility of enforcing the ordinance and providing ancillary services (e.g., map reading, public education) #of FP Bldgs: How many buildings are in the mapped Floodplain? #of policies: How many buildings are insured against flood through the NFIP? #of RL's: Number of Repetitive Losses: (Paid more than $1,000, twice in the past 10 years) CRS Rating: A Community Rating System rating from the NFIP, and if so, what is it? BCEGS Rating: A Building Code Effectiveness Grading System Rating. Stormwater Program: A program designed to move excess stormwater away from the urban areas of the County. Building Code/Building Official/Building Inspections: A building code that is in place, with an official in charge of enforcement through building inspections. • LEOP: A Local Emergency Operations Plan- a disaster RESPONSE plan HM Plan: A Hazard Mitigation Plan Warning: Any type of system, such as "Storm Ready" Certification from NWS, NOAA Weather Radio reception, outdoor sirens, Cable (TV) Override, or an Emergency Warning Notification System. GIS System: A Geographic Information System Structural Protection Projects: (levees, drainage facilities, detention/retention basins) Property Protection Projects: (buy-outs, elevation of structures, floodproofing, small "residential" levees or berms/floodwalls) Critical Facility Protection: (for example, protection of power substations, sewage lift stations, water-supply sources, the EOC, police/fire stations or medical facilities that are at risk) Natural And Cultural Inventory: Do you have an inventory of resources, maps, or special regulations within the community? (wetlands and historic structures/districts, etc.) Erosion or Sediment Control: Do you have any projects or regulations in place? Public Information and/or Environmental Education Program: Do you have an ongoing program even if its primary focus is not hazards? Examples would be "regular" flyers included in city utility billings, a website, or an environmental education program for kids in conjunction with Parks & Recreation?) • Northeast Colorado FINAL 7.7 Regional Hazard Mitigation Program September 2009 • In the County Capability Assessment matrix, a "C" means the County provides the service, and an "IP" means In Progress. Blank boxes or N/A means the information was either unknown or unavailable. NFIP Mapping Information Listed are the names of all incorporated communities within each county, and the current status of mapping within the NFIP. If the community has been mapped, the Community Map # and the Effective Date is cited. Additional Capabilities in the County Each County CPS filled out a 2009 Data Collection Guide which allowed each County to identify additional capabilities developed since the 2004 plan, which are noted in this section. Additional Vulnerabilities in the County Each County CPS filled out a 2009 Data Collection Guide. In it, the County's identified additional vulnerabilities or trends that have developed since the 2004 plan that may augment or exacerbate the hazards the County faces. These additional vulnerabilities are noted here, as applicable. • 7.1.7 County Recommendations The final section of each County Planning Element puts forth the Recommended Actions of the County Planning Team. Each recommendation is presented in a similar format: Action Item: A brief statement of what is needed Issue Statement: An explanation of why the Recommended Action is important Implementation Manager and Strategy: Identifies what person, position, department or agency has the initial lead responsibility for implementation. This could include a range of activities from identifying and applying for appropriate grants, to gathering the technical data needed for project development, or simply extending an invitation for Technical Assistance. Priority: A general statement of relative degree of importance, usually from a range of high, medium and low. The assignment of priorities changes from action to action and could be based upon the potential impact if the Action is not taken, pressing regulatory requirements, ease of implementation, potential availability of funding, or any combination of these factors. There is little or no inferred priority based upon the order in which the Recommended Actions are resented in the plan, beyond the goal of having each county become "Storm Ready" certified by the National Weather Service within the next three years. This is the highest priority for those counties not already certified. • Northeast Colorado FINAL 7.8 Regional Hazard Mitigation Program September 2009 • Cost Estimate: Where costs are known, they are presented. Potential sources of funding and/or local matches are also identified when known or considered. Cost-Effectiveness Explanation: A statement of why the Planning Team believes these Recommended Actions would be cost-effective to pursue. In most cases, this is a generic description, as it is fully expected that any project being seriously considered for implementation will need to detail project costs and benefits, and due to the scope of this plan, and the constant fluctuation in project costs and values that help determine benefits, a detailed analysis is not worthwhile at this point in the planning process. 2009 Update: For actions identified in 2004, the statement here explains the status of progress made on the action, or an explanation on why little or no progress has been made. i i Northeast Colorado FINAL 7.9 Regional Hazard Mitigation Program September 2009 • o M 4. O , TT, S •4 . 1 . I. I ft . n . _ It . x a I ail , r iik- -H 1 meal , s LF I Z 1 is N W W :. J - W -1. — . ' . g . . Z fici i -! Z ill 4 ~ - • On }- • ;Or , I IE Z • WI I • . I Z , lle I -- . . 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N a O 5 o o • w 2 z a a F 3 3 U CO co o 5 O m 0 OC I 0 z z .7.5 • ) j / ] ) co ! { 0 \ \ In ` .§ C / \ \ \ \ ) '; ) ) , } To K § , .( 2 ew # k ) / � j iri ) . f iri ® kCo 2 « k J ! 14. / f � ] _ .k k \ \ ) \ Ow \ \ \ f Ct � 8 g ) ) \ 4 • ) ey � Oc m 0; = q y a IA / 7 ) u ` _ & ( ` w a $ } jam , / / / j \ j \ EA - m \ % \ \ \ S r ± % u ° § ) / ) j k ) \ \ / 0 ) 3 d j \ \ 2 / \ ' E •j • O co ccl ® en 0 / = ` / \ § ° ` ` ; e a } \ = ] t / / \ ) % \ \ ( — # { \ § / \ C •y ® § G { \ i\ :2. 10 k s ) ) \ / 5 \ / \ § g a ® : j ( } § / \ 2 z % \ ® ) \ ) � {) 22 0 •C ! = # .0 § 12 ` § \ ` Io ed Z C ) } \ \\ \ / \ \ f / j / \ \\ \ • � � .2 c;;I f Lu ` ) § k = » u w ) k \ \ )f ! nor - r _z - m0 1 -�-- LEGEND /� {._. r 1 P Dries*Haws taw 'W• 'Ir ,.r• O is' WASHINGTON 40 C IV g C _rr 'kart., tE ., f- la Q r I I _ nset r- - -- tamp'` \.- ^.orvnu+rcrons 0 C1 _ . tZ l 3 I I _ a _nmfperq Dunning 'css i9 i� I � ____"g - ! . 0 Fire Sttcns—S. n► 1--. �. r* .1.(?:- � 11 O Neat Caro O O 1\ �� >✓ 11 a O y Gas Farkty rts ` i� Qj Polio* s o. afT� 2 �;' , Liman Genoa a DOWN Bansnri: /`✓ �� j Schools p f f J ■ S:our Cntoat&Apes ELBER ' gr` _ } w�taS WalesCn 34 _A ' t b O • ♦ _ go C Y c Strers CD • IT ry ' J `\ \ ( yes CU - -, j +6 ; , :mai Meads inn _ —{ `-"'1 = .I Nlortw,ys s 1 rl 1 — ;no�ca C p I.'t' 0 —4.- Ra goads p -� t — I "� : . .A k 4'{\ � t a {-. _ ' 4- , + • �,, f,�\� t� in Coontes p ' + ' ID clr I 1 - - - .. .T___l L � - ‘ er ciTt..k. .-- : .Sri ` --,1 t. 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DJ Roue' I Z a\)rtipe -.- O Pitt -tO : Low �� )24 ■ _ 1 C • �� xJk ID 4 I • - ! ' , Hugo -N--„,..\\N-1----: -- ' y _ 1.,. e - y 5t iris `\\ 1 11 � � CD A J. ', 13\14rV'1� c. r 14 High Q \ �� _ �� clot!! '�1..„ \ Q :r "..,- 4 It Lakes 1111 4. uJ \ NN, x1.441 " • rfigTivl:iy5 w a •■ \`;', t— �s roads ■ C--.] cities ` -71;; ■ ,;.I 0 coum ._- f- I at ! — A i. r 1 r CHEYENNE kt.m -t lik we I 1 lite . I \ , _ \\.) _ ______, KIOWA PUEBL `\{\\\\ CRO1NLE1f l \\1/4-C\L\ame c o 10 x Mlles 1 t I l t l t l Map compiled 4/2009, intended for planning purposes only. Data Source. State of Colorado, CDOT, CODWR. 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"f - - -1 LOGAN 51,000 - 510.000 o .� CU Fr 71 511,000 - 535.000 Cl) State nset ¶36.000 - $80,000 K m '., :. � Pr�attt as h $81.000 - 5155.000 to CT, -. trQ�: i� r fl 1, .7, Res ar �- 5156,000 - 5533.000 0 ° � •��, �fs1 ►.i1r�/1/ '� — Streams o M 1 i YL I Lakes O rc 4 i� .i'� ' i .�,c R�1' (s.61 H,gtnvays C �, � F *'c shf, {sr lnterstatesF.+- Railroads W �,raflL -"al's' ' El Cities C :.'.-r _ -•' ni Counties - ,t Akron, ��i1: I MORGAN �� " �aiw =S°3 Yuma CO 2.it44 ci b.-:- .. , �-�� ,•,- t ��F�r�� YUMA a) •CO cn jail 0 4 173 1 2 P-- ...:"..s CU . t2 ' 5nrs9„/".i-141 71 T `<` W�•a�' 1 it 1 .441\f � r m LINCOLN KIT CARSON ' _^ amec� 0 ,o 2.0 Miles Map compiled &2009: intended for planning purposes only. Data Source: State of Colorado, CDOT. CODWR. HAZUS-MH MR3 --I III • / \ / \ \ 0. us ` , » ; \ .q5 a G § \ \ � O � C \ \ aE � . = j \ j o 75 \ ) b z « # ( ) \ j \ a � { \ § ' CO \ / � \ ] „ CO o � . \ � / j g � @ O .E ! \ 0 _ .q ct Ti ) \ el \ \ � \ \ o \ \ o , e 0. 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F 6 U • )2a Tr rn S t. o e / et) cv9 $ = \ \ ) al / / on / / ••/ sal / 5 2 / u 0 c ( § a & j ./ ) $ Ci \ \ C 2 ( / ) { § / \ ) •e k \ e 0 7 2 \ \ / / / 0 \ ; / \ \ ) j 3 ] ) ) \ Ti ) z } H N \ / / ) CO3 d\ \ / 2 § & I. » \ q } { co cd A. , & \ } ); J ) - E C (\ ) \ /\ \ - k \ \ }) § - .g ) m j )J 2 \ j ) ( u 2 J / G \ }\ \ 0 L . . . . . 5 ) ° APPENDIX A: ACRONYMS USED IN THIS PLAN APA American Planning Association APHIS Animal& Plant Health Inspection Service ARC American Red Cross BFE Base Flood Elevation (The 100-year-flood, the 1% event) BOR Bureau of Reclamation CDBG Community Development Bock Grants CDOT Colorado Department of Transportation CFM Certified Floodplain Manager CGS Colorado Geological Survey CO-OEM Colorado Office of Emergency Management CDPHE Colorado Department of Public Health&Environment • CERT Community Emergency Response team CEUS Central US Attenuation Function CPE County Planning Element CPS County Planning Subcommittee CRS Community Rating System CSU Colorado State University CWCB Colorado Water Conservation Board DFIRM Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map DHS Department of Homeland Security DMA Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 DNR Department of Natural Resources DOLA Department of Local Affairs • DOI Department of the Interior Northeast Colorado FINAL A.I Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 APPENDIX A: ACRONYMS • USED IN THIS PLAN DOW Division of Wildlife DRLOG Denver Regional Council on Governments DWSA Drought & Water Supply Assessment EAPs Emergency Action Plans EOC Emergency Operations Center EOP Emergency Operations Procedures EPA Environmental Protection Agency FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FFA Future Farmers of America FHBM Flood Hazard Boundary Map FIRM Flood Insurance Rate Map • FMA Flood Mitigation Assistance (FEMA/NFIP Program) FSA Farm Service Agency(part of USDA) GHIPM Grasshopper Integrated Pest Management GIS Global Information System H&H Hydraulics and Hydrology HMGP Hazard Mitigation Grant Program IFG Individual & Family Grant Program (FEMA Program) LCWCD Logan County Water Conservancy District LEOP Local Emergency Operations Plan LEPC Local Emergency Planning Committee LOMR Letter of Map Revision MCPC Multi-County Planning Committee • NCDC National Climatic Data Center(part of NOAA) Northeast Colorado FINAL A.2 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 APPENDIX A: ACRONYMS 41, USED IN THIS PLAN NCEM Northeastern Colorado Emergency Managers (Association) NCIS National Crop Insurance Services (part of USDA) NFIP National Flood Insurance Program (FEMA Program) NKC Nebraska-Kansas-Colorado (Railroad) NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPDP National Performance of Dams Program NRCS Natural Resource Conservation Services (part of USDA(formerly SCS)) NSFHA No Special Flood Hazard Area NWS National Weather Service (Part of NOAA) OEM Office of Emergency Management PDM Pre-Disaster Mitigation (Program) • REA Rural Electric Association RETAC Regional Emergency Trauma Advisory Council RMIIA Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association SARA Superfund Reauthorization Act SBA Small Business Administration SCS Soil Conservation Service (now NRCS) SDO State Demographic Office SFHA Special Flood Hazard Area SHPO State Historic Preservation Officer TH Temporary Housing (FEMA Program) TMAC The Mitigation Assistance Corporation UPRR Union Pacific Railroad • USACE United States Army Corps of Engineers Northeast Colorado FINAL A.3 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 APPENDIX A: ACRONYMS • USED IN THIS PLAN USDA United States Department of Agriculture USGS United Sates Geological Survey(part of DOI) WMD Weapon of Mass Destruction WNV West Nile Virus WAPA Western Area Power Association WPA Works Projects Administration WUI Wildland Urban Interface WUS Western US Attenuation Function • • Northeast Colorado FINAL A.4 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 APPENDIX B REGIONAL WILDFIRE MITIGATION ACTIONS Action Item #1: Wildfire Pre Attack Plans Issue/Background: Pre-Attack is a planned systematic procedure for the gathering, evaluating and recording of intelligence, as well as the construction of certain fire control facilities, to insure the rapid and efficient suppression of fire on any given area. The Pre-Attack Plan is a companion to the Community Wildfire Protection Plan. Pre-attack plans are usually map-based and include identification of values at risk, special resources such as water sources, special concern areas, hazards, roads, staging areas, radio and other communication information, etc., along with suggested strategies. Other Alternatives: Continue to operate without a plan. Responsible Office: Fire Chiefs, County Emergency Managers. Support provided by Colorado State Forest Service. Priority (High,Medium, Low): Medium • Cost Estimate: Unknown Benefits (Avoided Losses): • Aid in defining strategy. • Improve coordination and safety. • Reduce the possibility of a devastating wildfire. • Improving emergency response capabilities. • Identify hazards and restricted access points. • Identify special resources. • Define community evacuation plans. • Recommend fuel reduction projects. • Complete the district's Community Wildfire Protection Plan(CWPP). • Aid Training and table-top exercises. • Provide information to Mutual Aid responders. Potential Funding: Unknown Schedule: Prior to March 2010 fire season. S Northeast Colorado FINAL B.l Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Action Item#2: Community Wildfire Protection Plan Issue/Background: Wildland fires on the plains of eastern Colorado are a common occurrence. High winds, grass fuel types, low relative humidity's, and high temperatures, combined with lightening and many human-caused ignition sources result in frequent and dramatic fires. The rural families in the plains live in an ocean of high-speed flashy fuels. Historically, communities and farmsteads have been overrun by rapidly moving prairie fires. Recently a wildland fire covered 15,000 acres in 3 hrs (An average of 84 acres / minute!), burned numerous structures, and threatened the community Wray, CO. When a fire starts its too dangerous to place firefighters in front of the fire, and too late for homeowners to protect their property. Wildfire protection measures must be taken before the fires start. The community wildfire protection plan (CWPP) provides the framework for a community to come together and address their values and risks, and propose mitigation actions. This year the Colorado Legislature passed, and the Governor signed Senate Bill 009-01 into law. This law directs each county government to prepare a CWPP for the county. Other Alternatives: Follow historical norms of relying on each landowner to individually mitigate fire hazards on their property, and the fire departments to react to wildland fires as they occur. • Responsible Office: County Emergency Managers. Support provided by Colorado State Forest Service. Priority(High, Medium, Low): High Cost Estimate: Unknown Benefits (Avoided Losses): • Reduced loss of life and property. • Reduced loss of jobs and income. Potential Funding: Unknown Schedule: Initial stages of the planning process are underway. Action Item#3: "Are You Plains Fire Wise?" Issue/Background: Wildland fires on the plains of eastern Colorado are a common occurrence. High winds, grass fuel types, low relative humidity's, and high temperatures, combined with lightening and many human-caused ignition sources result in frequent and dramatic fires. The rural families in the plains live in an ocean of high-speed flashy fuels. Historically, communities • and farmsteads have been overrun by rapidly moving prairie fires. Recently a wildland fire Northeast Colorado FINAL B.2 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 . covered 15,000 acres in 3 hrs (An average of 84 acres / minute!), burned numerous structures, and threatened the community of Wray, CO. When a fire starts its too dangerous to place firefighters in front of the fire, and too late for homeowners to protect their property. Wildfire protection measures must be taken before the fires start. The community wildfire protection plan (CWPP) provides the framework for a community to come together and address their values and risks, and propose mitigation actions. One of the activities of the CWPP is public education and outreach. Firewise is a national consortium of wildland fire management agencies working together to supply information to community members who are living with the possibility of wildfire. It is a community fire prevention partnership. "Are You Plains Firewise?" is a Firewise public information workshop presented by Colorado State Forest Service. Becoming Firewise is a process, not an endpoint. Being Firewise is not difficult, but requires commitment. A Firewise person pays attention to those details in his or her environment that might start or encourage the spread of a wildfire. Other Alternatives: Be content to allow the public to be uninformed and follow historical norms of fire departments reacting to wildland fires as they occur. Responsible Office: County Emergency Managers. Support provided by Colorado State Forest Service. Priority(High, Medium, Low): High Cost Estimate: Unknown - minimal Benefits (Avoided Losses): • Reduced loss of life and property. • Reduced loss of jobs and income. Potential Funding: Grant funding to Colorado State Forest Service for materials. Schedule: Ongoing Action Item#4: Update "Agreement for Cooperative Wildfire Protection" Issue/Background: Wildland fires on the plains of eastern Colorado are a common occurrence. High winds, grass fuel types, low relative humidity's, and high temperatures, combined with lightening and many human-caused ignition sources result in frequent and dramatic fires. The rural families in the plains live in an ocean of high-speed flashy fuels. Historically, communities and farmsteads have been overrun by rapidly moving prairie fires. Recently a wildland fire covered 15,000 acres in 3 hrs (An average of 84 acres/minute!), burned numerous structures, and threatened the community Wray, CO. Northeast Colorado FINAL B.3 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 The "Agreement for Cooperative Wildfire Protection In County" is a formal agreement between each County and Colorado State Forest Service for cooperative wildfire protection. It is required in order for the Colorado State Forest Service to provide state and federal support and grants to the county. It is also required for fire departments in the county to participate with federal resources on fires. In most counties these agreements have been in place for a number of years. It is anticipated that all county Agreements will need to be updated in 2010. Other Alternatives: Operate without the agreement. Responsible Office: County Sheriff, County Commissioners, Emergency Manager, Fire Chiefs, Colorado State Forest Service Priority(High, Medium, Low): High Cost Estimate: Unknown - minimal Benefits (Avoided Losses): Continue receiving state and federal support and grants from Colorado State Forest Service, and for fire departments in the county to participate with federal resources on fires. Potential Funding: Unknown • Schedule: 2010 Action Item#5: County Wildfire AOP's with Colorado State Forest Service Issue/Background: Wildland fires on the plains of eastern Colorado are a common occurrence. High winds, grass fuel types, low relative humidity's, and high temperatures, combined with lightening and many human-caused ignition sources result in frequent and dramatic fires. The rural families in the plains live in an ocean of high-speed flashy fuels. Historically, communities and farmsteads have been overrun by rapidly moving prairie fires. Recently a wildland fire covered 15,000 acres in 3 hrs (An average of 84 acres/minute!), burned numerous structures, and threatened the community Wray, CO. The "Agreement for Cooperative Wildfire Protection In County" is a formal agreement between each county and Colorado State Forest Service for cooperative wildfire protection. In most counties these agreements have been in place for a number of years. A subsequent activity to this agreement is the preparation of Annual Operating Plans (AOP's). The AOP is a working document compiled each year by wildfire agencies participating in the Plan, and shall be attached to, and considered a part of, the Agreement for Cooperative Wildfire Protection In County. Annually, the Colorado State Forest Service, County Sheriff, Emergency Manager, Fire Chiefs, and others come together, usually in January, to prepare the AOP. The purpose of this AOP is to set forth standard operating procedures and responsibilities to implement cooperative wildfire protection on all lands within the county. Northeast Colorado FINAL B.4 Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan September 2009 • Other Alternatives: Continue without having AOPs, as has been done historically. Responsible Office: County Sheriff, Emergency Manager, Fire Chiefs, Colorado State Forest Service Priority(High, Medium, Low): High Cost Estimate: Unknown- minimal Benefits (Avoided Losses): • Coordinated support for wildland fire activities. • Increased knowledge of availability of fire resources. 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