HomeMy WebLinkAbout790712.tiff RESOLUTION
RE: AUTHORIZATION FOR WELD COUNTY PLANNING DIRECTOR TO DISTRIBUTE
REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL (RFP) STUDY.
WHEREAS, the Board of County Commissioners of Weld County,
Colorado, pursuant to Colorado statute and the Weld County Home
Rule Charter, is vested with the authority of administering the
affairs of Weld County, Colorado, and
WHEREAS, the Weld County Director of Planning Services has
requested that he be authorized to distribute a Request for Pro-
posal (RFP) study to residents of the West Greeley area, and
WHEREAS, the purpose of said study is to identify the oppor-
tunities and constraints which would or would not make urban uses
a viable alternative for the area in question, and
WHEREAS, the Board of County Commissioners deems it advisable
and in the best interests of Weld County to authorize the Weld
County Director of Planning Services to distribute said Request
for Proposal study.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Board of County Com-
missioners of Weld County, Colorado that the Weld County Director
of Planning Services be, and hereby is, authorized to distribute
the Request for Proposal (RFP) study to residents of the West
Greeley area.
The above and foregoing Resolution was, on motion duly made
and seconded, adopted by the following vote on the 31st day of
January, A.D. , 1979.
Irk . BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
ATTEST: II �,� W LD COUNTY, COLORADO
Weld County Clerk and Recorder
and -e�erk to the Br
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t /rc //u42..7
Deputy Countyerk 6.1::141"
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PPRO ED AS TO FORM: 17: irtiSnesti C._ County Attorney
DATE PRESENTED: FEBRUARY 5, 1979
790712
FZoy6- s
EXHIBIT A
Request for Proposal
Made By
Weld County, Colorado
February 1 , 1979
Dear
In the area defined by the attached Exhibit A, Weld County is
experiencing significant pressures to allow commercial and
industrial development which would be contrary to existing area
comprehensive land use plans and policies . In response to
these pressures , the County feels it would be beneficial to
pursue a detailed analysis of the area to determine : (1) Whether
or not existing policies are still valid for the area in question ;
(2) What benefits might be derived from altering existing policies
for the area; and ( 3) What impacts may be expected if policies
for the area are changed to allow various levels of urban
development .
The attached Request for Proposal (RFP) defines the approach we
would like to pursue in analyzing these issues . The RFP is
hereby submitted as an invitation to your firm to submit a pro-
posal to Weld County for conducting such an analysis . Enclosed
for your convenience is a stamped self-addressed card which we
would request that you return immediately if you do not intend
to reply to this request .
Your interest in the project is sincerely appreciated .
Sincerely ,
Gary Z. Fortner, Director
Weld County Department of Planning Services
REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL
MADE BY
WELD COUNTY, COLORADO
I . Problem
What is the most appropriate use of land in the area
identified in the attached Exhibit A.
II . Objectives
A. To develop alternative land use plans for the defined
area which are based on detailed land use , environmental
and fiscal analyses .
B. To present , in writing, a detailed analysis of each
identified land use alternative for the defined area.
Such analysis should, as a minimum, address the
following issues :
1 . What is the basis for the proposed alternative?
2 . What type of spin-off or secondary development
might be anticipated as a result of implementing
the alternative?
3 . What jurisdictions would be expected to provide
required services and facilities to the area if
the alternative was implemented? (Note : if
more than one option is available for providing
a particular service or facility, each should
be considered)
4 . Do the jurisdictions defined in item No . 2
above have the capability to provide such services
and facilities?
5 . What are the short and long term fiscal and
economic impacts which may be expected on those
jurisdictions which would provide services and
facilities to the area under the proposed
alternative?
6 . What jurisdictions outside the defined area may
be required to provide additional services or
facilities as a result of implementing the
alternative , without the benefit of an expanded
tax base or other increased revenue sources
(e . g. , housing, parks and recreational facilities ,
cultural facilities , street maintenance , etc . )?
7 . Do the jurisdictions defined in No . 5 above
have the capability to provide such services
and facilities?
8 . What are the short and long term fiscal and
economic impacts which may be expected on those
jurisdictions defined in No ' s . 5 and 6 above if
the alternative is implemented?
9 . What are the expected impacts of the alternative
on the long range land use , capital improvement ,
facility and other adopted plans of affected
jurisdictions including the Larimer-Weld Regional
Council of Governments, Weld County , Greeley ,
Windsor, Johnstown, Milliken , fire districts,
school districts , etc . ?
10 . Are there precedents set by the alternative which
would result in establishing new policy directions
for Weld County or is the proposal unique to the
defined area?
11 . What are the benefits which affected jurisdictions
may be expected to accrue as a result of imple-
menting the proposed alternative (e . g. , increased
tax base , retail sales, etc. )?
12 . What impacts on Weld County ' s agricultural land
resource base could be expected if the alternative
is implemented?
C. To present , in writing , a recommended land use alternative
for the defined area for consideration by Weld County
decision makers .
D. To involve the general public and affected decision
makers in the above defined study and analysis , in
order to ensure an understanding of the factors
involved as the study proceeds and to ensure citizen
input to the greatest extent possible .
III . Constraints
A. Maximum dollars now committed for the study : $10 , 000 . 00
B. Other funding sources are now being considered which
may increase the amount identified in Item A.
IV. Coordination - Project coordination will be accomplished
through the Director of the Weld County
Department of Planning Services .
V. Schedule
A. Submittal of Proposals - March 1 , 1979
B. Interview firms submitting proposals - March 19-23 , 1979
C. Award of Contract - April 2 , 1979
D. Initial draft of study to be completed by August 6 , 1979
E. Project Completion : September 17, 1979
VI . Contents of Proposal - Proposals to be submitted on the date
indicated must included:
A. A full explanation of the firm' s capability to perform
the defined tasks .
B. A resume of the qualifications of the firm' s principles
and staff to be assigned to the project .
C. A resume of similar projects undertaken by the firm and
reference contacts with the firms listed .
D. A complete scope of services which details the tasks to
be performed, the methodologies to be utilized in the
analysis, and time frameworks for the completion of the
defined tasks .
E. A program for citizen participation which will involve
the general public and affected decision-makers .
VII . Procedures for Submittal
A. All proposals shall be submitted in two parts :
1 . Part I - Content of the Proposal - This Part I shall
contain :
(a) A complete scope of services which details
the tasks to be performed, the methodologies
to be utilized in the analysis , and time
frameworks for the completion of the defined
tasks ; and
(b) Program for Citizen Participation .
2 . Part II - Analysis of Costs and Qualifications of
firm Submitting Proposal - This Part II shall
contain :
(a) A full explanation of the firm' s capability
to perform the defined tasks ;
(b) Resumes of the qualifications of the firm' s
principles and staff members who will be
assigned to the project ; and
(c) A resume of similar projects undertaken by
the firm, including a list of references which
can be contacted regarding the work accomplished
by the firm under the listed projects .
B. Each of the two parts of the proposal identified in
Item VII A. shall be submitted in its own separate
envelope free of any markings as to the identity of
the firm. Both parts shall be submitted in a third
envelope , also free of such markings . The outside of
each envelope submitted shall bear the marking :
WEST GREELEY STUDY RFP. Identification of the firm
shall be allowed only in Part II of the proposal . Thus
any letterheads, distinctive stationary , or any other
clues or allusions as to the identify of the firm
shall be prohibited in Part I of the proposal .
C. Proposals shall be mailed or hand-delivered to the Weld
County Director of Purchasing on or before March 1 ,
1979.
VIII . Receipt of Proposals
A . The Weld County Director of Purchasing shall number the
envelopes pertaining to each proposal with a number
corresponding to the order in which the proposals are
received. All three envelopes of a given proposal shall
be assigned like numbers .
B. At a date , to be determined, the Director of Purchasing
shall forward Part I of each submitted proposal to the
Evaluation Committee .
IX. Evaluation of Proposals
A. Upon receipt of Part I of each submitted proposal , the
Evaluation Committee shall evaluate the proposals and
rank them. The Committee shall then submit the results
of its evaluation to the Director of Purchasing with
its recommendation that the three firms who have sub-
mitted the best proposals be interviewed.
B. Upon receipt of the Committee ' s findings and recommendation ,
the Director of Purchasing shall release the identity
of the three firms to be interviewed, as well as Part II
of the three selected firms proposals , to the Evaluation
Committee .
C. Upon receipt of Part II of the three firms proposals ,
the Evaluation Committee shall evaluate the firms
qualifications and financial estimates, and shall inter-
view the three selected firms concerning their proposals .
D. After interviewing the three selected firms , the
Evaluation Committee shall take one of two courses
of action :
1. Make a recommendation to the Director of Purchasing
that one of the three firms interviewed be selected
to carry out the study; or
2. Notify the Director of Purchasing that , constraints
identified in the interview process , or in the
evaluation of Part II of the proposals , make it
impossible to select one of the three firms
interviewed.
If action No. 2 is taken by the Evaluation Committee, it
shall be requested that the firm with the next highest
ranking as identified in Item IX. A. be contacted for an
interview. In this manner, interviews and evaluations
shall be continued until either a firm is selected, or
until it is determined that constraints identified in
the evaluation process disallow the selection of any
firm submitting proposals .
X. Additional Instructions - It will be expected that the firm
contracting for the study will have
staff available for the purpose of
explaining the study at public
hearings subsequent to the project ' s
completion.
EXHIBIT A
DELINEATION OF THE WEST GREELEY STUDY AREA
The purpose of this memorandum is two-fold :
( 1) To delineate the general area for the West Greeley
Study, and
(2) To provide the rationale for the study area selection .
The general study area has been delineated on the map attached hereto .
It is intended that the study will focus on the general area shown
on the map , although it is understood , that the final study area may
be expanded or contracted as a result of the constraints and
opportunities identified as the study progresses .
The general area shown was selected for the following reasons :
(1) Clearly the key factor which makes this area attractive
for urban development is the opportunities which are
present due to the existing transportation network .
This area is a crossroads . As shown on the attached
map, the following major transportation routes inter-
sect in this area :
(A) Highway 34 Business
(B) Highway 34 By-Pass
(C) Highway 257
(D) Weld County Road 17
The key road intersections in the area are identified on
the attached map as 1, 2 , and 3 .
(2) The defined area is in close proximity to I-25 which provides
quick, convenient access to the greater Denver Metro area ,
the Colorado Front Range Urban Corridor, and points beyond .
( 3) Business and industrial uses located adjacent to the trans-
portation network in this area would have a high degree of
visibility to the traveling public which may commute between
Greeley, Fort Collins , and Loveland . As a result of this
latter factor, all areas within mile on either side of
the major roads and intersections in the area have been
included in the study area.
(4) Finally, the area in general is centrally located in what
is often referred to as the Greeley , Loveland , Fort Collins
triangle area. As a result , it may be viewed as a potential
crossroads for this area . In addition, the area is located
such that it provides an excellent view of the mountain ranges
to the west and thus serves as an attractive location for a
variety of urban uses .
In conclusion , the above reasons seems to make the area
attractive for a variety of urban uses . The purpose of
the study is to identify the opportunities and constraints
which would or would not make urban uses a viable alternative
for the area in question .
Finally, the boundaries of the area defined should not be
viewed as static . Rather, the boundaries should be viewed
as subject to adjustments as various factors are identified
as the study progresses .
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EXHIBIT B
West Greeley Study
Work Program
EXHIBIT B
WEST GREELEY STUDY
WORK PROGRAM
1. 0 Study Organization
1. 1 Work Program. A work program and schedule will be
prepared by BBC for approval of the study committee.
1. 2 Committee Meeting. Periodic meetings with BBC and
the study committee will be held to insure adequate coordination of
the study. An initial meeting will be scheduled to review the
detailed work program and plan a meeting with key public officials .
1 .3 Meeting with Key Officials . Following approval of
the work program, BBC and the study committee will organize a meeting
with key public officials , including the project manager, other study
committee members , Weld County Planning Department members , and other
appropriate representatives from public and private agencies , such as
local planners , city administrators , elected officials , etc . The
purpose of the meeting will be to communicate the planned study work
program to affected individuals and agencies and to allow for input
into the study process .
2. 0 Data Collection
2. 1 Identification of Available Data and Agency Contracts .
The project manager and study committee will assist BBC in the identi-
fication of all available data sources and appropriate contacts within
affected agencies . This identification task will assist BBC in sub-
sequent data collection.
2. 2 Information Collection. BBC will collect all infor-
mation necessary for the analysis , including available comprehensive
land use plans , utility service plans, published government policies ,
available demographic forecasts , appropriate budgets and financial
statements of impacted jurisdictions , base maps and other necessary
residential, commercial and industrial market information.
2. 3 Interviews . BBC will conduct approximately twenty
to thirty interviews with a variety of local individuals knowledgable
about potential development and subsequent impacts in the project area.
The purpose of the personal and telephone interviews will be to
determine past, present and future economic prospects , identify appro-
priate development potential , assess probable impacts and the adequacy
of existing public infrastructure to meet the impacts , identify
possible policy conflicts and solicit additional input for the analy-
sis. The study committee will assist BBC in the identification of
appropriate individuals for the interviews , including local government
officials (planning, elected officials , administrative, utility,
transportation, housing, schools , fire, police, health, parks and
recreation, etc. ) , quasi-public agencies (public utility, chamber of
commerce, etc. ) , other local business contacts , real estate sales
representatives and developers , property owners in the study area and
adjacent areas , financial institution officials , and other appropriate
community group representatives .
3 . 0 Economic Market Analysis
3 . 1 Economic Base Profile. BBC will develop an overview
of present economic and business activities in the general vicinity of
the study area. Key economic indicators (population, employment,
agricultural production, retail sales , building permits , utility
connections, bank deposits , etc. ) and the results of the interviews will
be used to develop an overview of the Greeley-Weld County economic base.
The tabular and narrative profile will provide a basis for the identi-
fication of development potential, feasible development alternatives ,
and possible impacts in the study area.
3 . 2 Industrial Market Analysis . BBC will evaluate the
development potential of various forms of industrial activities in
the study area. The feasibility of industrial/office park development
will be evaluated. Appropriate forms of industrial development for the
study area (heavy manufacturing, warehousing, light manufacturing/
office, etc. ) will be identified based on the competitive position of
the area with other existing and planned industrial developments in
the Weld County area. An inventory and analysis of the advantages
and disadvantages of competing areas will be assembled. Acreage and
square footage estimates of possible industrial development in the
study area will be prepared based on an evaluation of competitive
facilities , available land and facilities , suitability of the local
market, transportation facilities , utility availability, financial
resources , local regulations and taxes , etc.
3 .3 Commercial Market Analysis . A commercial market
analysis will evaluate the development potential of retail and office
uses in the project area. The suitability of highway oriented com-
mercial development, a major regional shopping center and residential
oriented commercial developments will be determined based on an
evaluation of nearby competitive areas , customer access , available
market area income, retail expenditure patterns , expected market
share, etc. An inventory of competitive commercial areas will be
assembled and estimates of probable square footage requirements for
retail and office space use will be prepared.
3.4 Residential Market Analysis . A residential market
analysis will be undertaken to determine the development potential
of single and multifamily residential use in the study area. A
detailed inventory of competitive residential developments will be
made and likely absorption rates estimated to determine potential
residential development phasing in the study area.
3 . 5 Funtional Alternatives . The results of the in-
dustrial, commercial and residential market analyses will be used to
develop functional alternatives for the study area. The alternatives
will be defined in terms of development mix (industrial , commercial
and residential) , and activity level (development density) . The
development of five alternatives are anticipated : (1) existing base
line (status quo) ; (2) industrial emphasis with some compatible
commercial development; (3) highway commercial development with
limited other uses ; (4) residential emphasis with convenience
oriented commercial development; and (5) mixed use development in-
cluding industrial, commercial and residential uses. The develop-
ment alternatives will be defined in terms of acreage, square
footage and development density.
3 . 6 Committee Review of Alternatives . A study committee
meeting will be held to review the appropriateness of the funtional
alternatives identified by BBC. A public presentation of the alterna-
tives will also be planned.
3 . 7 Public Meeting. A public meeting will be held to
present the results of the market analysis and define the selected
functional alternatives. Additional input will be solicited from the
public to insure the appropriateness of the alternatives identified
for further impact assessment.
4. 0 Impact Assessment
4. 1 Impact Area Definition. The impact assessment will
primarily focus on the following jurisdictions : Weld County, the
municipalities of Greeley, Windsor, Johnstown and Milliken, and the
school districts of Windsor RE-4, Greeley SD-6, and Johnstown RE-5J.
Limited analyses of public impacts will also be conducted for ap-
propriate water, sewer and fire districts .
4. 2 Base Line Forecast Preparation. Base line forecasts
of expected future growth without the project area development will
be prepared. Available local forecasts will be used as a basis for
the BBC estimates of population, employment, income, housing demand
and student enrollment .
4. 3 Socioeconomic Impact Determination. The incremental
impact of each alternative development scenario will be determined.
Both new and/or redistributed growth in population, employment, income,
housing units and student enrollment will be identified for each
jurisdiction. These demographic forecasts will provide a basis for
the subsequent evaluation of impacts on public services and finances.
General impacts on Weld County' s agricultural land resource base will
also be evaluated in terms of tax base and service requirement changes .
4.4 Public Facility Impact Analysis . The adequacy of
public facilities to meet future service demands will be evaluated for
each of the development alternatives . Interviews with appropriate
agencies will be conducted to determine capacities in the following
areas : housing, schools, water and sewer utilities , transporation,
storm drainage and flood control , solid waste, fire protection, law
enforcement, health facilities, electric power, parks and recreation,
cultural and entertainment, etc . Additional capacity requirements
will be defined for each of the development alternatives. Changes in
air pollution and energy consumption patterns will also be identified
and public cost associated with such changes identified.
4. 5 Public Sector Financial Analysis . The impact on public
sector finances will be identified for each development alternative.
Both primary and secondary impacts will be evaluated. Incremental
revenues and expenses over or under the base line forecasts will be
estimated for each of the jurisdictions. The impact on various
budget categories (property tax revenues , general administration
expenses , law enforcement costs , utilities , etc.) will be estimated
in annual increments over the 1980-85 time period and for 1990. The
net effect (revenues minus expenses) will be identified.
5. 0 Policy Guidelines
5.1 Existing Policy Review. A review of existing policies
will be conducted to identify possible conflicts in desired policy
direction. The implication of the alternative development scenarios
on long range land use trends , capital improvement plans and adopted
plans of the Larimer-Weld Regional Council of Governments , Weld County,
Greeley, Windsor, Johnstown, Milliken, applicable school districts and
other affected public entities will be evaluated.
5. 2 Draft Report. A draft report outlining the study
methodologies, study findings , data accumulated and analyzed, con-
clusions and recommendations of the study will be prepared by BBC.
5.3 Study Committee Meeting. A study committee meeting
will be held to review the preliminary results of the study and discuss
possible changes in policy direction. Plans for a public hearing and
subsequent review process will also be made.
5.4 Public Meeting. A public meeting will be held to com-
municate the preliminary results of the study and initiate the review
process . The study committee will identify appropriate individuals
to review the draft report.
5. 5 Final Report. At the conclusion of the project, BBC
will prepare a final report containing the study methodologies , study
findings, data accumulated and analyzed, conclusions and recommendations
of the study incorporating any necessary changes resulting from the
review. BBC will supply a camera-ready copy of the final report, in-
cluding any necessary graphics , in a form suitable for reproduction.
EXHIBIT C
West Greeley Study Schedule
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EXHIBIT D
Cost and Price Analysis
EXHIBIT D
WEST GREELEY STUDY COST AND PRICE ANALYSIS
Study Task Budget
1 .0 Study Organization
1 . 1 Work Program $ 300
1 .2 Committee Meeting 150
1 .3 Meeting with Key Officials 200
Subtotal $ 650
2.0 Data Collection
2. 1 Identification of Data $ 300
2.2 Information Collection 750
2.3 Interviews 1 ,028
Subtotal $ 2,078
3.0 Economic Market Analysis
3.1 Economic Base Profile $ 761
3.2 Industrial Market Analysis 845
3.3 Commercial Market Analysis 630
3.4 Residential Market Analysis 445
3.5 Functional Alternatives 600
3.6 Committee Review 150
3.7 Public Meeting 300
Subtotal $ 3,731
4.0 Impact Assessment
4.1 Impact Area Definition $ 320
4.2 Baseline Forecasts 640
4.3 Socioeconomic Impacts 1 ,055
4.4 Public Facility Impacts 975
4.5 Public Sector Finances 2,341
Subtotal $ 5,331
5.0 Policy Guidelines
5.1 Existing Policy Review $ 706
5.2 Draft Report 1 ,100
5.3 Committee Meeting 150
5.4 Public Meeting 300
5.5 Final Report 750
Subtotal $ 3,006
Total Project Budget $14,796
EXHIBIT E
Consultant ' s Principal Project Staff
EXHIBIT E
CONSULTANT'S PRINCIPAL PROJECT STAFF
The project team for the West Greeley Study will consist of
John Gunyou, Ted Browne, Harry Zeid and Rick Kirkwood. John Gunyou
is Project Director. Resumes for each individual are included in
Proposal : West Greeley Study, Weld County, Colorado , Part II,
Qualifications , submitted to Weld County by BBC on March 1, 1979.
Responsibilities
As Project Director, Gunyou will be responsible for overall
coordination of the project. He has had extensive experience in the
fields of socio-economic impact analysis , public sector finance and
market feasibility analysis . His background also includes past
working relationships with local planning agencies.
Ted Browne is a principal in the firm and will be primarily
responsible for portions of the industrial market analysis . Harry
Zeid specializes in computer analysis , especially as it applies to
public sector financial impact assessments . Rick Kirkwood has
worked as a local planner and will assist in the economic base and
policy review phases of the study.
Project Team Member Involvement
Team member involvement during each phase of the project is
outlined in Table 1. Assignments and billing rates are :
Hourly
Team Member Position Rate*
John Gunyou Project Director $37 . 50
Ted Browne Principal 50. 00
Harry Zeid Senior Economist 35 . 00
Rick Kirkwood Planning Analyst 27 . 50
*Hourly rates include labor, overhead, general and adminis-
trative expenses and allowance for profit.
TABLE 1. PROJECT TEAM MEMBER PARTICIPATION (HOURS)*
Project Totals Gunyou Browne Zeid Kirkwood Clerical Total
I. Study Organization -- 6
1 . Project Organization 4 2 -- 34
2. Data Collection 6 _ 4 20 4
Subtotal 10 2 4 20 4 40
II. Economic Market Analysis 16 4 26
3 . Economic Base Profile 6 -- -- -- 18
4. Industrial Analysis 6 12 -- --4 -- 16
5. Commercial Analysis 8 4 _-_ 10 -- 14
6. Residential Analysis 4 -- - --
7 . Functional Alternatives 8 6 _ _ 14
__ 14
Subtotal 32 22 -- 30 4 88
III . Impact Assessment - 8
2 4 18
8 . Impact Area 4 2 2 -- __
9. Baseline Forecasts 12 -- 4 -- -- 26
10. Socioeconomic Impacts 16 6 -- 28
1
11. Public Facility Analysis 8 2 4 14 26
12. Public Sector Finances 6 -- ._ = 4 4 Subtotal 46 10 28 18 4 106
IV. Policy Guidelines 16 4 24
13 . Policy Review 4 -- -- -- 14
14. Recommendations 8 2 -- 4
15. Final Report 16 2 4 _ 24 46
Subtotal 28 4 4 20 28 84
V. Citizen Participation 2
16. Prior Publicity 2 -- -- -- -- 28
17 . Continuing Contracts 14 2 -- 12
18. Public Presentations 20 10 _ = 4 34
Subtotal 36 12 -- 12 4 64
Total 152 50 36 100 44 382
*Participation is estimated based on the Scope of Services (Exhibit F)
submitted to Weld County on March 1, 1979 . It is understood that
adjustments in total hours spent by each team member will be necessary
based on the West Greeley Study Work Program (Exhibit B) and by needs
which arise as the study progresses .
EXHIBIT F
Scope of Services
March 1, 1979
Proposal for the
WEST GREELEY STUDY
Part I: Scope of Services
- .Prepared for -
Department of Planning Services
Weld County, Colorado
1 March 1979
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pace
INTRODUCTION
Proposal Organization
Background
Objectives of the Study
Use of the Results iv
SCOPE OF SERVICES 1
I. Study Organization 1
1. Project Organization and Communication Links. . . . . 1
2. Data Collection 1
II. Economic Market Analysis 1
3. Economic Base Profile 2
4. Industrial Market Analysis 3
5. Commercial Market Analysis 3
6. Residential Market Analysis 4
7. Determination of Appropriate Functional Alternatives . . 4
III . Impact Assessment 5
8. Impact Area Definition 5
9. Baseline Forecast Preparation 5
10. Socioeconomic Impact Determination 6
11. Public Facility Impact Analysic 6
12. Public Sector Financial Analysis 7
IV. Policy Guidelines 7
13. Existing Policy Review 8
14. Recommendations 8
15. Final Report 9
V. Citizen Particiption 9
16. Prior Publicity g
17. Continuing Contacts 9
18. Public Presentations 10
PROJECT SCHEDULE 11
Performance Period 11
Proposed Study Schedule 11
APPENDIX A. EXAMPLES OF COMPUTER OUTPUT GENERATED BY THE
CONSULTANT'S FISCAL IMPACT MODEL 13
ii
INTRODUCTION
The consulting services outlined in this proposal are for a market
feasibility analysis and impact assessment of alternative development scenarios
fora specified area in western Weld County. The analysis will address the most
feasible economic functions and land use of the selected area, outline future
development potential and activity levels, and assess public service require-
ments and net fiscal impacts resulting from alternative forms of development.
Proposal Organization
The proposal is presented in two parts:
Part I : Scope of Services
Part II: Qualifications
Part I of the proposal outlines a complete scope of services which
details the tasks to be performed, the methodologies to be applied in the
analysis, the time framework for completion of the designed tasks, and a program
for citizen participation.
Part II details qualifications of the firm, includes resumes of pro-
ject team members and presents the project budget.
Background
The Weld County Comprehensive Plan currently calls for contiguous
development of industrial uses in areas adequately served by existing public
infrastructure.
During recent years, Weld County has experienced substantial
pressures to allow commercial and industrial development in the unincorporated
area west of Greeley. Such development would be contrary to existing compre-
hensive land use plans and policies.
Objectives of the Study
As a result of the increasing development pressures in the area west
of Greeley, Weld County has requested consulting assistance for the preparation
of a market feasibility analysis and impact assessment study for the West
Greeley project area.
The study objectives are to determine:
(1) Whether or not existing policies are still valid
for the area in question;
(2) What benefits might be derived from altering
existing policies for the area; and
(3) What impacts might be expected if policies
for the area are changed to allow various
levels of urban development.
iii
Use of the Results
It is anticipated that the study results be used as a basis for the
development of future specific plans by individual developers and the affected
public agencies. By coordinating theinitial planning effort, such as outlined
in this proposal , the considerable expense associated with individual studies
can be avoided.
If properly coordinated with business interests in the area, both
business and government needs can be addressed through the study. This will
make the results reinforcing and mutually compatible to both public and
private interests.
iv
SCOPE OF SERVICES
The West Greeley Study will consist of five basic elements :
I. Study Organization
II . Economic Market Analysis
III . Impact Assessment
IV. Policy Guidelines
V. Citizen Participation
Discrete tasks are defined within the general framework of the
study elements. The general approach to be taken to complete each of the tasks
is described in the remainder of this section.
I. Study Organization
1 ) Project organization and communication links. Because of the
relatively short performance period for the project and the necessary high
degree of citizen involvement, it will be important to expeditiously establish
communications between all affected agencies and identify areas of responsi-
bility. An early meeting is desired among all key team members including the
project manager, consultants, Weld County Planning Department members assigned
to the project, and other representatives from public and private agencies.
Since the Weld County Department of Planning Services will be
evaluating possible policy changes as a result of the study, periodic meetings
between the consultants and planning staff are anticipated to coordinate
activities and share information.
2) Data collection. The consultant is responsible for collecting
necessary data for the study with the assistance of the Weld County Depart-
ment of Planning Services. While the consultant has collected considerable
economic base data on the Greeley/Weld County area as a result of past working
relationships, some assistance will required for the computation of such
data as site specific development plans, existing public facility capacities,
tax assessment ratios, etc.
Specific data requirements and applications are outlined in each
of the task descriptions.
II. Economic Market Analysis
The economic market analysis portion of the project consists of an
overall feasibility study for future development in the area. Market feasibility
studies are used to identify future economic potential of various uses,
realistic development schedules, specific site potential , justification for
zoning and regulatory ordinances , justification for third party financing
arrangements, etc. Such studies can also form the basis for an evaluation
of the cost and revenues associated with the provision.of public services.
2
For this study, a market analysis will be performed to estimate
aggregate demand levels for alternative industrial, commercial and residential
uses. The economic analysis serves as an initial screening to identify poten-
tially feasible development alternatives for further analysis. Demand forecasts
resulting from the market analysis form a basis for the subsequent development
impact assessment phase of the study.
3) Economic base profile. As the first step in the economic
market analysis, an overview of present economic and business activities
in the Weld County-west Greeley area will be prepared.
The consultant has conducted numerous economic base analyses and
feasibility studies throughout the Colorado Front Range and has developed
a detailed knowledge of the Weld County economy. Internal data will be
utilized, as well as available local publications. For example, considerable
background economic information potentially useful to this study was recently
compiled by the Greeley Area Chamber of Commerce and other data is regularly
maintained by local agencies .*
In order to develop a complete business profile of the project
area, the economic base data available through internal consultant files
and other local publications will be supplemented by information derived from
a series of local interviews.
Interviews will be conducted with a variety of local individuals
knowledgeable about potential development in the project area, including local
business persons, real estate developers , property owners, public officials,
directors of local financial institutions and selected community leaders. The
interviews will be structured to determine past, present and future employ-
ment prospects ; historical and future business trends; market configurations
and competitive influences; growth expectations and variables influencing
growth; and perceptions of economic opportunities, problems or solutions
related to study area development. The interviews will also reflect local
impressions about community objectives, development requirements and attitudes
concerning desired community policies in the project area.
The consultant has had extensive experience in the design and admin-
istration of interview guides and questionnaires. They are an important
element in most feasibility studies. Development of the interview guide,
identification of survey participants and the techniques for its application
will be a coordinated effort between the consultant and the Weld County
planning staff.
*Bureau of Business and Public Research, University of Northern
Colorado, Northern Colorado Business Information Factbook, updated semiannually;
Bickert, Browne, Coddington & Associates , Weld County and Greeley Economic
Development Factbook, compiled for the Economic Development Advisory Board
of the Greeley Area Chamber of Commerce, July 1978; Economic Development
Department, United Banks of Colorado, Greeley, Colorado--An Economic Overview,
updated annually.
3
4) Industrial market analysis. This phase of the economic market
analysis will evaluate the development potential of various forms of light
industrial activities. The consultant has had experience in the design
of industrial parks and will consider the feasibility of such a development.
The competitive aspects of other existing or planned light industrial areas ,
such as those along Highway 34 near Greeley, will be considered. The evaluation
of industrial development potential will draw upon the results of a recent
study which analyzed the Greeley and Weld County industrial sector.* The
report outlines several industries especially suited to the Weld County area,
including food products, apparel , printing and publishing, chemical products,
fabricated metal products , heavy machinery and equipment, precision equipment,
other manufacturing, motor freight, warehousing, research and development
laboratories and administrative headquarters facilities.
The consultant has conducted a large number of feasibility studies
for a wide range of industrial activities in Colorado and will use internal
data collected as part of these past studies to further supplement interview
and secondary background information.
5) Commercial market analysis. This phase of the economic market
analysis will evaluate the development potential of retail and office uses
in the project area. The first major task of the commercial analysis is
to determine the existing and future market areas which apply to the project
area businesses. A commercial market area is that area from which retail or
service establishments can expect to receive the majority of their business .
Recent feasibility studies by the consultant in the Bittersweet Shopping Center
provide backgound information that will be helpful .
A variety of factors will be considered in the delineation of the
market area, including the characteristics of the project area, the location
of nearby competitive areas, customer access, parking facilities, the existence
of physical barriers, historical trends in sales activity, etc. Forecasts
of current and future retail demand will be prepared from estimates of future
population and income levels from within the market area. The project area
share of business will be estimated and demand forecasts for retail sales
will be prepared. Sales generation from customers outside the defined service
area will also be considered.
The influence of existing and planned commercial areas will be
evaluated. For example, the Bittersweet Plaza Shopping Center is now under
construction at West 10th Street and 35th Avenue in west Greeley. The 120,000
square foot center will include the largest Safeway Store in northern Colorado
and is scheduled to open by June 1979.** Additionally, a major retail
center is proposed for southwest Greeley and plans for the redevelopment of
the Greeley downtown commercial area are underway.*** Convenience goods outlets
in the smaller neighboring towns (e.g. , Windsor) are also considerations.
*Bickert, Browne, Coddington & Associates, Weld County and Greeley
Analysis of Potential for Economic Development, prepared for the Economic
Development Advisory Board of the Greeley Area Chamber of Commerce, July 1978.
**Discussion with Gid Gates, Wheeler Realty, December 26, 1978.
***Greeley Planning Development, Downtown Development Study, July 1978
Draft; conversation with John Givens, Greeley Planning -Department, February 5 ,
1979 .
4
Once projections have been prepared for the future retail sales
potential of the project area, an analysis will be made of existing and needed
retail sales facilities. The analysis will determine what additional space
might be warranted for development by translating projected retail expendi-
tures into physical requirements.
Future demand forecasts for office space in the area will also be
made for such businesses as administrative headquarters, finance, insurance
and real estate establishments, legal offices, business services , medical and
dental offices or miscellaneous office space users.
6) Residential market analysis. This phase of the economic market
analysis will examine the development potential of residental uses in the
study area.
Demand for low, medium and high density housing in the study area
will be evaluated. Attitudinal trends will be considered. Changes in life
styles could affect future demand for uses in the area. For example, changes
in residential density preferences could result in increased demand for
medium and high density residential living.
Competitive influences from other existing and planned residential
developments in neighboring towns will be considered. The consultant has
compiled considerable information on housing developments in western Greeley
and other towns in the vicinity of the study area. These data will be updated
and serve as a basis for an evaluation of the market shares potentially
available to housing developments in the project area.
For example, a recent consultant survey of twelve major residential
developments in western Greeley identified plans for the construction of an
average of nearly 700 new housing units per year over the five year time
period from 1979 to 1983.*
7) Determination of appropriate functional alternatives. Potentially
feasible functions of the study area will be determined based upon the
results of the industrial , commercial and residential market analyses.
Secondary or spin-off effects of alternative development will be considered.
For example, an industrial park could enhance the feasibility of future commer-
cial and residential development in neighboring areas.
This final stage of the economic feasibility analysis involves a
synthesis of the feasibility results into realistic development alternatives
for further evaluation.
Alternatives for the impact assessment phase of the project will be
defined in terms of development mix (industrial , commercial and residential)
and activity level (development density) . Alternative mixes of industrial ,
retail , office and residential development will be defined within the feasi-
bility parameters established by the market analyses. The alternatives
will be further delineated by development density. For example, residential
development densities of 2, 5 or 10 units per acre could be evaluated.
*Interviews with major developers in western Greeley during October
1978.
5
III. Impact Assessment
The impact assessment phase of the project involves an evaluation
of the effects of the various development alternatives on the social and
economic infrastructure of the local economy.
Both primary and secondary impacts on neighboring areas will be
evaluated. Specific tasks are listed below.
8) Impact area definition. Primary and secondary areas of influence
will be defined for potential developments in the study area. This initial
task identifies the communities , political entities and other geographic
areas which will be primarily and secondarily impacted by the construction
and operation of the development. Factors to be considered include: size
and characteristics of neighboring developments , historical area growth and
commuting patterns, driving distances, cost and availability of housing,
general ability of existing public facilities to accommodate additional growth
and other related considerations .
This task identifies what jurisdictions wduld be expected to provide
required services and facilities to the alternative developments. Juris-
dictions in the secondary area of influence outside the project area are also
identified. These entities may be required to provide additional services,
such as housing, schools, parks and recreational facilities and health services
as a result of the primary developments but may not benefit from an expanded
tax base.
Examples of jurisdictions in the primary area of influence include
Weld County, Windsor School District RE-4, Windsor-Severance Fire District,
and the Little Thompson Water District. Depending on the development type,
mix and intensity, jurisdictions in the secondary area of influence could
include Weld and Larimer Counties; the cities of Greeley, Johnstown, Windsor
and Loveland,the school districts of Windsor RE-4, Johnstown RE-5J, Greeley
SD-6, Giicrest RE-1 and Eaton RE-2; the fire districts of Windsor-Severance,
Milliken, Johnstown, Berthod, Eaton and Western Hills; and various water
and sanitation districts in western Weld County.
9) Baseline forecast preparation. Forecasts of expected future
growth without the project area development will be prepared for the impact area.
This provides a baseline scenario, against which it is possible to evaluate
the alternative development impacts. Baseline projections will be developed
for employment, population, income, housing demand and student enrollment.
Forecasts prepared by local and regional planning agencies will be reviewed,
as will internal information compiled by the consultant as a result of previous
economic analyses in the Weld County area. Interviews with area developers,
planners and other local officials will also be used to provide insights into
future development trends.
The baseline projections will also consider likely changes in social
conditions as they might develop over the forecast period. Examples include
the quality of housing, availability or costs of local goods and services;
quality of local government services likely to be available, and changes in
social structure, cultural factors and institutions. Shifts in life styles,
recreational patterns or other basic social considerations will be reviewed.
These shifts will be recognized in the demographic or economic projections as
necessary.
6
10) Socioeconomic impact determination. The impacts of the alternative
development possibilities will .e 'e ermine. and superimposed on the baseline
projections. This approach enables the subsequent evaluation of costs/bene-
fits and problems/opportunities. The impact of study area development on each
component of the local infrastructure may be evaluated, including such elements
as the tax structure, water and sewer system, health, education, law enforce-
ment facilities , etc.
As an example of the assessment process , to evaluate the impact
of an industrial development staged forecasts of construction and permanent
operational employment are required to develop projections of secondary employ-
ment which will be generated through the multiplier effect. The basic employ-
ment at an industrial facility translates into additional jobs as the workers '
income is reinvested into the local economy. Local suppliers and service
agencies will also serve the industrial operation directly.
Impacts on Weld County's agricultural land resource base will also
be evaluated as part of this task. Alternative development represents a change
in the county's tax base and service requirements.
11) Public facility impact analysis. This task evaluates the ability
of existing public facilities to accommodate the potential growth generated
by the development of the project area. It consists of an inventory of existing
facilities and an evaluation of the existing capacity to absorb growth gener-
ated by the development.
The present adequacy and planned improvement of each public facility
and service in the impact area will be identified. This provides a basis
for a general evaluation of the system capacity to absorb the additional
demands generated by the development. Interviews will be conducted with the
responsible public and quasi-public agencies to determine existing and future
capacities. The following areas will be included:
• Housing
• Schools
• Water and sewer utilities
• Transportation
• Storm drainage and flood control
• Solid waste
• Fire protection
• Law enforcement
• Health facilities
• Electric power
• Parks and recreation
• Cultural and entertainment
• Other public facilities and services
The estimates of future employment, population, housing demand and
student enrollment developed under Task 10 will be translated into demands
for public services and utilities . Incremental demands generated by the pro-
ject area development will be identified and the ability of the existing
infrastructure to absorb the growth will be considered.
7
12) Public sector financial analysis. The public sector financial
analysis task involves an evaluation of the fiscal impact of the proposed
development on selected local government agencies. Changes in operating
revenues and expenditures for the major impacted political subdivisions in
the area of influence are evaluated.
Annual operating statements of the major political subdivisions
in the impact area will be used to develop profiles of historical operations .
The results of the public facility needs analysis and socioeconomic impact
forecast task will also be utilized.
Both positive and negative financial impacts associated with the
alternative developments will be determined. For example, new residential
development will result in increased property tax revenues, but will also result
in additional demands for public services. One approach is to project
revenues and expenditures annually over a specified time period, such as 10
years. The key element of any fiscal impact analysis is the derivation of
fiscal operating surpluses or deficits specifically attributable to the
development.
The consultant has developed a computer model which has been applied
successfully in the past to analyze financial impacts of development on
municipalities , counties and school districts. A computerized analysis is -
particularly applicable to this project since the impact of several alterna-
tive development scenarios must be analyzed: The consultant's fiscal impact
model is specifically designed to compare the financial effects of various
alternatives. For example, the model can compare the effects of various
development patterns with the finances of the major government agencies in the
county. An example of the output which can be generated by the fiscal impact
model operated by the consultant is provided in Appendix A.
The end result of the public sector financial analysis is to evalute
the ability of local governments to provide needed services from the revenues
generated by the proposed development. Both short and long term fiscal impacts
will be analyzed.
Further, both primary and secondary effects will be evaluated.
For example, the jurisdiction where an industry is located is directly respon-
sible for the provision of utilities to the industry, and the jurisdiction
directly benefits from the increased tax base provided by the industry. This
represents a primary or direct impact.
Secondary impacts arise from altered development patterns resulting
from the industrial development in the example. Workers at the industry may
live in neighboring towns. These towns are faced with additional demands
for public services, but might not be able to fully caputure increased revenues
resulting from the industrial development since it is situated outside of the
town's jurisdiction.
IV. Policy Guidelines
This phase of the project involves a review of the existing policy
structure and the possible recommendation of alterations in policy direction.
8
13) Existing policy review. A review of existing policies will be
conducted to identify possible conflicts in desired policy direction. The
implications of the alternative development scenarios on long range land
use trends, capital improvement plans and adopted plans of the affected juris-
dictions will be evaluated.
A comprehensive plan review will be conducted for the Latimer-Weld
Regional Council of Governments, Weld County, Greeley, Windsor, Johnstown,
Milliken, applicable school districts and fire districts and other affected
public entities.
Certain development possibilities could be unique to the project
area, but others could represent new policy directions. For example, the
Weld County Comprehensive Plan currently calls for the preservation of
agricultural resources from adverse impacts resulting from uncontrolled and
undirected business , industrial and residential growth.* The plan also seeks
to minimize conflicting land uses and the cost of new facilities and services
to the taxpayer by encouraging industrial , commercial, business and residen-
tial development to locate adjacent to existing incorporated towns. New
developments not continguous to existing areas are required to be justified
by an economic impact statement detailing how the proposed growth would affect
the local and county economic base, the tax revenues and cost of public services.
Certain development alternatives could satisfy many of these requirements
while others might not.
In terms of utility services , the plan discourages any development
that would create an undue burden on existing public facilities and diminish
the capacity of public agencies to maintain the existing level of service. Tap
fees, service charges , and tax revenues from all new developments are required
to be sufficiently high to properly protect the existing users from an increased
cost due to the added demands upon the system. The proliferation of service
districts is opposed and the consolidation of existing service districts is
encouraged when it tends to improve the efficiency and economy of the service.
Service agreements and fee structures might be designed to mitigate many
of the adverse effects of service expansions.
Policies are also set to guide industrial development within the
unincorporated portions of Weld County. Zoning for industrial use in areas
outside the areas covered by the comprehensive plans of existing municipalities
is encouraged only for low employee concentration, agriculturally related
! industries or other industries that can show they cannot reasonably be accom-
modated within the areas covered by the municipalities' comprehensive plans .
Certain alternatives could satisfy this requirement, while others could suggest
revisions in policy direction.
14) Recommendations. A recommended land use alternative will be
presented for consideration by the Weld County Department of Planning Services,
Planning Commission and County Commissioners. The recommendation will entail
a practical and feasible development scenario based on the results of the
economic market analysis, alternatives impact assessment and policy review
process.
*Weld County Planning Department, Weld County Comprehensive Plan,
September 1973.
9
The results of the study will address possible alterations in policy
direction and will be structured in such a way as to enhance the efficiency
of any subsequent physical planning programs.
15) Final report. At the conclusion of the project, the consultant
will provide a final report containing the findings and recommendations of the
study. It is anticipated that the report will provide the information necessary
to guide potential investors and subsequent development activities.
An initial draft of the study results will be completed by August 6,
1979 and a suitable review period provided to allow for the incorporation of
comments and suggestions by the reviewers .
The consultant will supply a camera-ready copy of the final report,
including any necessary graphics, in a form suitable for reproduction.
V. Citizen Participation
This phase of the project entails a program for citizen participation
which involves the general public and affected decision makers. The tasks
are intended to assure the fullest possible public participation, while at
the same time efficiently and effectively incorporating that participation
into the study. Specific tasks are:
16) Prior publicity. Prior to the selection of a consultant, it
is recommended that the Weld County Department of Planning Services offer
the pending study reasonable publicity. This could take the form of press
releases to media in affected areas, letters to local officials and agencies,
newsletters, etc. Since the study will last only a few months, it is desirable
to alert all concerned that the study will be conducted, and to inform them
of its purpose. This will afford people a chance to begin thinking about
the issues. The expected result is public participation that is more issue-
oriented, rather than emotional , and more valuable to the study. -
17) Continuing contacts. In order to be most effective, public
involvement must be an ongoing activity throughout all phases of the projects;
from the early phases of alternatives development, through the assessment pro-
cess, to the eventual selection of a recommended development alternative.
Public involvement activities will both inform interested community and agency
groups , and thereby ensure a high degree of awareness of the progress of the
project; and also encourage their participation in order that project informa-
tion can be developed that reflects community and agency interests and concerns.
Lastly, public involvement activities will be oriented towards providing
a variety of opportunities for the community to become knowledgeable and involved.
The proposed methodology involves interviews with a wide variety
of local planning officials, chambers of commerce representatives, appropriate
business associations, local land owners, real estate agents and developers,
directors of local financial institutions and selected community leaders. The
consultant anticipates maintaining a close contact with interested groups
from government, labor, business and outside review agencies. Local public
officials will also be urged to encourage inputs to them from their own
constituents for relay to the consultant.
10
18) Public presentations. The consultant anticipates participating
in approximately three presentations of the study findings and recommendations .
This number of hearings, well publicized in advance, should adequately provide
for public input. The location and timing of the hearings would be a joint
decision of the client and consultant.
If the presentations are scheduled at key intervals during the
project they should provide interested and involved community and agency
groups with applicable project information to make them knowledgeable parti-
cipants in subsequent community involvement activities..
Public hearings provide for an interaction which other forms of
public participation do not, but can be time consuming and expensive. As
a result, the hearings can be supplemented by other measures of public parti-
cipation, such as constituent inputs via local officials and some form of mail-
response feedback, such as coupons in local newspapers. While mailed comments•
would be welcomed at any time, the coupon device would provide a direct stimulus
for a response. In addition, it would provide a form of communication for
people who cannot attend the hearings. It would also encourage inputs from
a broader base of people.
11
PROJECT SCHEDULE
Performance Period
Work on the project will commence immediately following contract
execution on April 2, 1979. The performance period will encompass approximately
four months, with a draft report produced by August 6, 1979. Following a
review period of approximately one month, the final report will be provided
by September 17, 1979.
Because of the relatively short performance period, the consultant
anticipates maintaining a close communication with the Weld County Department
of Planning Services.
Proposed Study Schedule
The proposed study schedule is shown in Table .l . Project organization
will take place during early April and the major portion of the data collection
task will be accomplished during the first two months of the study.
The economic market analysis phase of the project will be complete
by the end of May, and assessment of functional alternatives will be accomplished
during the subsequent two months of the performance period. Policy guidelines
will be developed during the month of July.
Continuing citizen interaction will take place throughout the study,
with public presentations scheduled during the final three months of the project.
- 12
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13
APPENDIX A
EXAMPLES OF COMPUTER OUTPUT
GENERATED BY THE CONSULTANT'S
FISCAL IMPACT MODEL
The attached series of six tables are representative of the computer
tabulation output for public sector analyses prepared by the consultant.
The computer-based model has been applied in a number of studies to project
local (county, school district, and municipality) taxes and other revenue
sources. Operating expenditures have also been considered.
The first two tables show examples of a project in which the computer
model was used to analyze the financial impacts of a proposed major residential ,
comercialand industriald`velopment on the local county, school district and
special services districts. The two examples indicate projections of assessed
valuation of housing units , and annual property tax revenues for the county,
school district and special districts .
The next four tables identify estimates of annual operating revenues
and expenditures for three public governing bodies (county, city and school
district) which would be impacted by a proposed major development. Eight
alternative development scenarios were incorporated. The model was applied
again in early 1979 to determine the impact of eight new development scenarios
upon the local infrastructure.
1
14
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